While we wait for news on the 25% tariffs on $200bln or 40% of Chinese exports to the U.S.—and with the threat of the same on the remaining ~$300bln to follow—I want to outline the endgame for the dollar and the likely beginning of the explosive rally for Gold. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a well-known market commentator and money manager and is a highly sought after guest at financial conferences and at news outlets throughout the world. It's great to have him back on with us. Full Story
On Sesame Street they teach the basics: how to count, how to spell, and how to make good decisions. Through a slight alteration of a classic 3 minute bit with Ernie (Burt's easy going roommate), well known economist Peter Schiff teaches a valuable lesson about the perils of slick salesmanship and trading away money for nothing. In the original sketch, Ernie is scammed into buying air in a bottle by Lefty, the neighborhood con-puppet. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks suffered a rare capitulation selloff over the past month or so. Selling cascaded to extremes as stop losses were sequentially triggered, battering this contrarian sector to exceedingly-low levels. While very challenging psychologically, capitulations are super-bullish. They rapidly exhaust all near-term selling potential, leaving gold stocks wildly oversold and undervalued which births major new uplegs. Full Story
In this phase of the cycle, I think we’re going to continue to see some major consolidation from the bigger companies. Take the recent $6 per share offer for Nevsun (one of my top 2017 recommendations) by China’s Zijin Mining. Because they’re seeing exactly what I’m publishing and they know internally that they haven’t replaced their reserves that they’ve produced. Full Story
A particularly intriguing connection between the Chinese government and Barrick was brought to your attention by GATA the other day via a report in the Financial Times. The newspaper noted that the Chinese government has appointed a committee to advise it on relations with the United States and financial and economic reforms and the committee will be co-chaired by the chairman of Barrick Gold, John Thornton, a former Goldman Sachs executive. Full Story
Peter Schiff, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) returns with comments on the financial sector. Our guest notes that gold reached a bear market nadir in 2015 and is building a base for a new bull run. Once the move begins in earnest, the gold / silver ratio will collapse as silver outperforms gold during much of the advance. Full Story
Once we broke support a few months ago in the metals market, I began pointing to much lower levels before we complete this larger degree 2nd wave within which we have been caught for the better part of two years. And, as we came into this past week, most of the metals charts we have been tracking were pointing down. In following through on those downside patterns this past week, the GDX finally completed the minimal wave structure we would need to see to even begin looking for a potential bottom as being struck. Full Story
One of the big recent changes in American life is the ongoing mass-migration from the middle of the country to the coasts, especially those of the Southeastern and Gulf States. Florida and the Carolinas, along with Houston and surrounding Texas counties, have gained millions of new residents seeking to trade snow and monotony for sun and water. Full Story
Are we going to fall into the trap of a self-fulfilling prophecy? Could investors trigger recession only because they are so worried about inversion of the yield curve? We invite you to read our today’s article about the yield curve and find out whether the popularity of the yield curve as an indicator of recession will bring on the recession that everyone is so afraid of. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt with Ryan Wilday - 13 September, 2018
While we’d like to promise that this is the final bottom in this bear market, there are ways this market can grow more evil and complex. Mainly, this completed pattern we discuss above may only be followed by a corrective rally, a b-wave. This would suggest another larger degree decline can ensue months from now. So, as the market rallies off the low is strikes in the near term, we will track so that we can appropriately raise stops so we are not caught in a c-wave downdraft, searching for a lower low. Full Story
Every once in a while the trading action in a given market breaks through its historically normal boundaries and starts exploring new territory. This can mean one of two things: Either something fundamental has changed, creating a “new normal” to which participants will have to adapt. Or the extreme move is a temporary aberration that will eventually be corrected by an equally extreme snap-back into the previous range. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years, rejoins the show, commenting on gold, financial markets and Hurricane Florence. Florence is a category 4 storm headed directly for the Tar Heel State. Gold remains the de facto dollar alternative given that over 96% of the Greenback's value has eroded since 1913. Full Story
I’ve been so skeptical about gold’s rallies for so long that I’ll stick closely to the technical evidence to guide me this time, lest I miss the start of the real McCoy. Although the December contract looks almost certain to reach the 1223.90 target shown, I doubt that it will push far past it. That’s because the point ‘B’ high of the pattern was so anemic, failing to exceed the mid-August peak. Full Story
What does it all mean for the precious metals market? Well, the recent employment situation report is positive for the hawks among the U.S. central bankers, so it should upset gold bulls. Indeed, yesterday, Lael Brainard, the Fed Board Governor, said at the Detroit Economic Club that the Fed may be able to hike interest rates more times in 2019 than commonly thought. As a reminder, traders expect that the U.S. central bank will raise rates only one or two times next year. But Brainard argued that Trump’s fiscal policy lifted the neutral level of interest rates, allowing the Fed further upward moves. Full Story
Even this basic question has been made deliberately opaque by the co-conspirators at the CFTC. Much has been made recently—and rightfully so—of the ongoing extremes being reported within the weekly, CFTC-generated Commitment of Traders report. This report, which summarizes the positions of "Speculators" and "Commercials" within the COMEX gold and silver markets, currently shows relative positions not seen in decades, if ever. Full Story
You may have noticed the platinum price has fallen well below gold’s price and it continues to underperform the other precious metals. What is happening in the platinum market? We see a handful of factors driving the recent declines in platinum. For starters, it is facing the same challenges we find in the gold and silver markets. Full Story
The precious metals sector is now on a long-term sell signal, which is suitable for trading and not for long-term holding. Short-term is on mixed signals. The cycle is down. COT data is at extreme levels, which suggests that a recovery will occur soon. We are looking to exit our long-term positions upon a recovery rally. Full Story
The world abandoned gold backing and replaced it with debt based currencies. Those dollar bills, yen, euros etc. are DEBTS issued by your central bank. They are as valuable as… someone believes they are. Unlike gold or silver coins, they have no intrinsic value. The quantity of debt and circulating debt based currencies has increased exponentially (doubles every 10-11 years) for decades. $44 trillion of debt in 2018 will rise to $100 trillion and then $200 trillion. What happens when another $50 trillion in debt is created in the next decade? Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
I have had an interesting life, in the course of my retirement from business; my retirement happened somewhat by chance, in the year 1988; one Friday evening I presided a meeting of a group directors of Elektra, a Mexican company the property of my father and myself. We had had some 500 of these meetings in past years; they took place every two weeks. My son Richard was present, having been with the company since 1980. Full Story
While the precious metals are totally off the radar by the majority of investors, silver is setting up for one major bull market. Yes, it’s hard to believe as the gold and silver prices have been trending lower while the broader markets grind up higher, but if we look at the fundamental and technical indicators, the stock market and precious metals are now at extreme opposites. Full Story
Summing up, it’s very likely that the pause in the precious metals market is over and the next big move down is already underway. We entitled our September the 4th, 2018 analysis Gold and Silver’s Stormy September. The current pause is most likely the naturally occurring calm before the storm. A profitable storm. Full Story
With the commercial traders now net long both gold and silver, India’s super-savvy central bank on the buy, Tom “Mr. Market” Lee highlighting an epic value-growth stocks line in the sand, and the US central bank set to launch the first September rate hike in more than ten years, fully insured gold market investors should be smiling record-size smiles, and ready for substantially higher prices from what just may be a generational low forming now! Full Story
The quarterly report from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showing bank trading revenue, published today and called to GATA's attention by our friend J.H., contains two remarkable graphs showing the increase in the notional value of gold and precious metals derivatives held by "U.S. commercial banks and savings associations" quarter by quarter since 2001. Full Story
A parody of Bob Dylan's seminal "Who Killed Davey Moore?" by The Bull and the Bear. Adam Stotland: Guitar, voice, production Ryan Stotland: Lyrics, harmonica Kyle Thompson-Westra: Lyrics https://www.facebook.com/thebullthebear/ https://thebullthebear.bandcamp.com Full Story
Keep your eyes on the price of gold because the Fear Trade is about to heat up. And I’m not just saying that because the U.S. trade war with China is about to intensify even further, with tariffs on $267 billion worth of Chinese goods announced on Friday. It’s been 10 years now since the start of the global financial crisis, and emerging markets are signaling trouble that some investors fear could have a spillover effect into developed markets. Last week, the MSCI EM Index, which consists of 24 countries, entered bear market territory after falling more than 20 percent from its January high. Full Story
The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, entitled this year “Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy”, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is over. But we can feel its consequences well beyond it. So let’s analyze the latest gathering, starting with the Powell’s speech entitled “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy” (we will come back to the symposium in the future editions of the Gold News Monitor). Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, down 0.31 percent. Gold traders and analysts are bullish on the yellow metal for a third week in a row, according to a weekly Bloomberg survey. Although silver has fallen 16 percent so far this year, its continued losses have spurred physical demand. The U.S. Mint reported its strongest silver sales so far this year with 1.53 million one ounce American Eagle Silver coins sold, a 72 percent increase from July. Full Story
It’s not every day that a clear example showing the horrors of central planning comes along—the doublethink, the distortions, and the perverse incentives. It’s not every year that such an example occurs for monetary central planning. One came to the national attention this week. A company called TNB applied for a Master Account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Their application was denied. They have sued. Full Story
September: end of vacations (well, for some anyway), back to school, and a traditional start to the business year. September, along with October are also known to investors as the cruelest months. October is known for its famous crashes. But it is also a month that is known to end bear markets. Full Story
The latest gold and silver COTs and Hedgers charts are quite simply astounding – we have not see anything like it since the site started 15 years ago. In addition, short selling of gold and silver by futures traders is at record levels by a huge margin at a time when bullishness towards the dollar is also at extreme levels. All of this points not just to a reversal soon, but to a meltup in gold and silver triggered by a scramble to exit massive short positions once the tide turns. Full Story
This is the last emerging market crisis story for a while, promise. But one angle – exactly how a plunging currency in a far-off place affects supposedly stable markets like the US – is worth exploring because it’s happening right this minute. Let’s start with the choices facing an American or European investor who needs a decent return, but who finds that interest rates have fallen to the point where traditionally safe things like bonds and bank accounts no longer yield enough. Full Story
We have seen how the PBC has now begun and is making itself felt around the world starting at the periphery of the global economy, next moving to the senior markets of the world and eventually being transmitted to the core of the financial system. As of now the US markets do not reflect any impact of the PBC, however there are signs it is fast approaching. Full Story
By: Andy Sutton and Graham Mehl - 10 September, 2018
It is now September. The time of year that the fright forecasters live for. Their dispatches grow more and more desperate. Tragedy lies just on the horizon. ‘Buy our products now’ they say or ‘reap the whirlwind’. We are now just a few days from the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Weekend Extravaganza which was the official start date of what stuffed shirts in media and politics call the ‘Great Recession’. Full Story
Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, from Kotlikoff.net and author of the FREE book: You're Hired! says gold and silver investors could emerge victorious. The shackles of over $200 trillion in total US debt / financial obligations and a potential trade war with key trading partners looms above the markets. Bill Murphy of GATA.org expects the global monetary crises to converge leading to explosive gains in the PMs sector. According to GATA.org, the gold cartel continues to raid the PMs sector as sending the gold / silver ratio to 85, making silver an irresistible value. Full Story
The gold price chopped unsteadily sideways around the $1,200 spot mark through all of Far East and most of London trading on their respective Friday's. The price got smacked a bit at the 8:30 jobs report in New York, but began to head higher about 9:01 a.m. EDT. That rally was allowed to last for about forty minutes before 'da boyz' showed up -- and they set the low tick of the day about fifteen minutes before the COMEX close. It crawled a few dollars higher over the next hour -- and then didn't do much until trading ended at 5:00 p.m. in New York. Full Story
Hardly a day passes without some sort of China news in the financial headlines. There’s a good reason, too. China is the global economy’s 600-pound gorilla, second in size only to the US. Yes, it was largely a copycat business economy up until the early 2000s, but Chinese entrepreneurs have really taken charge in the last 10 years. Full Story
Tonight I would like to update some of the PM charts we’ve been following to see how they’ve been progressing starting with the massive ten year H/S top on gold. Since the price action broke below the neckline several weeks ago it’s a week to week observation to see how the backtest is playing out. The backtest to the neckline comes in around the 1225 area with this weeks high at 1212.70 so the backtest held for another week. What we need to see next for the current move lower to continue is to see a new weekly close below the previous weekly low. Full Story
Commitments of Traders data are not only not standing in the way of a precious metals rally, they are practically begging for one. It is best to have the fundamentals at your back when buying the precious metals and while September has a chance to bring some changes in that area they are not yet in place. Still, I have started to buy some quality sector items, including the Silver Bullet as noted in the NFTRH real time Trade Log. Full Story
The U.S. Government’s balance sheet is one step closer to blowing up as its debt, and interest expense hit new record highs. And when I say “new record highs,” I am not exaggerating. It’s been a while since I checked the data on the TreasuryDirect.gov website, but when I researched the figures for this article, I was quite surprised by just how quickly the numbers are rising. Full Story
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