My investigation into gold trading irregularities, including the time around the London fixes, initially began after reading the work of the late Adrian Douglas, along with Dmitri Speck. As a 30-year veteran of the futures market (lumber being home turf) inconsistencies and anomalies were easy to spot. While eventually trading the gold market I discovered a veritable laundry list of suspicious trading activity. One with exceedingly high odds - 80% in fact - was the London PM fix settling lower than the AM fix. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 14 March, 2014
As the U.S. economy continues to disintegrate, increasing numbers of investors will be forced to move out of paper assets and into physical gold and silver to protect their wealth. At first the move will be slow, but as Americans wake up from four decades of fiat monetary amnesia, it will turn into a torrent. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 14 March, 2014
Gold’s strong rebound upleg this year has been driven by big gold-futures buying. After abandoning gold last year, American futures speculators are returning to the yellow metal in droves. These capital inflows are a very bullish harbinger, as major futures buying is the primary fuel for young gold uplegs before investors return to take the baton. And this big gold-futures buying is likely less than half done! Full Story
It’s Friday morning, and the prospect of the “sum of all fears” is creeping into the global consciousness. In other words, the “realization of reality” is – slowly but surely – taking hold, which is why, at the moment, even unprecedented doses of money printing, market manipulation, and propaganda are not working. Despite such efforts, global equity markets are plunging, precious metals are surging, and a general fear that 2008 was not the end, but the beginning, is relentlessly becoming a part of the public awareness. Full Story
According to Garet Garrett in his book "A Bubble that Broke the World" Cheops employed 100,000 men for twenty years to build his great pyramid, "and all he had for 600,000,000 days of human labour was a frozen asset." Cheops's distortion of the Nilotic economy was nothing compared with the economy warped by the Chinese government today, which has overseen the construction of empty cities, unused airports, carless highways and bridges to nowhere. Full Story
That is, as long as it is taboo to make specific and detailed mention of silver or gold price manipulation. It is as if there is some underlying existential dilemma journalists face while dealing with this issue. Talent is not everything. There is no lack of talent and otherwise powerful voices. It must be the effect of no skin in the game. Journalists are underpaid relative to astro-physicists turned algorithm traders. Therefore, it is safer to sell out to the devil and enjoy the accolades and promotions, even at the expense of unearthing the most important issues of our time. Full Story
Monetary policy remains accomodative and housing is rebounding in the developed world. Consequently, business activity is improving and this is being reflected in the related stock markets. You will recall that approximately 2 years ago, we observed that the housing markets of Europe and the US were bottoming out and at that time, we stated that a boom in this sector would be a major positive catalyst for the developed world. Back then, most market participants were pessimistic, but raw data was indicating some improvement in housing. Full Story
It is remarkable how billions of human beings are using fiat currencies in the world today without any understanding at all of what they are doing. Curiosity and intellect are indeed very limited in supply amongst humans. Humanity is attempting to live by the use of fiat currencies – gold and silver as means of interaction between humans are not available today. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 13 March, 2014
As the gold and silver markets turn the corner and move back to the uptrend, mining companies are recovering quite nicely. Ahead of the ‘credit crunch’ in 2007, the common belief was that almost any mine was a good investment. Since then, many investors have learned a salutary lesson on the subject often seeing his investment fall to a level far below the price he paid. Full Story
Just when you thought the last of the big institutional banks were ready to throw in the towel on their bearish metal forecasts, yet another one has joined the ranks of the gold bears. Morgan Stanley was the latest to enter the fray on Monday when it lowered its gold price forecast for 2014 and 2015 in a research report. The group based its lower forecast on the expected impact of reduced monetary stimulus combined with increased regulatory pressure on investment banks to reduce the scale of proprietary commodities trading. Full Story
We’re one issue into the cycle since I made the start of year predictions. I don’t look stupid yet which might be some sort of record. So far, so good. If the trend of the past two weeks holds up the correction that started 2014 is already over. If you use the Dow as the benchmark the dip was eight percent. I’m not sure that is large enough to make me comfortable. Full Story
Lately we’ve been writing about why we expected the rebound in precious metals to continue without any serious setbacks. After a major low, sentiment can remain muted for several months even in contrast to the improving market action. Yet, a look at history shows that rebounds from major lows can continue unabated and unscathed for more than a year. The rebound in precious metals thus far appears to be following this script. It has received a further boost with the breakout in Gold yesterday and as of now, the breakout in the gold miners. Full Story
The chart of the FTSE/XINHUA China 25 Index (XIN) is something else that gives us that sinking feeling. If this chart is combined with a chart of copper then one might get a double sinking feeling. The S&P 500 may be near all-time highs but underneath not all is well. Full Story
Undoubtedly, unemployment is important for retirees and soon-to-be retirees. Also important is understanding the inflation rate as it’s reporting by the US. Both numbers seem to have been improving over the past few reporting periods, but those measures may not be the most reliable. Read on to learn where these numbers come from, and why you ought to pay close attention to each report. Full Story
Precious metals boosters will see gold’s nominal price break upward and probably get excited. They will marshal the troops for what could one day turn out to be a full fledged tout, as if the 40% decline of the last 2.5 years had never happened. Full Story
In the last few months, something major has begun. That something is inflation. Regardless of what the CPI inflation measure tells you, the core items that affect most consumers’ pockets are healthcare, housing (rental or home prices), and food. All of these are rising in price. Take a stroll down the food aisles at the grocery store…Turkey has risen 34% year over year from its January 2013 price. Boneless chicken breasts are up 11%. Grapefruits are up 13%. Strawberries are up 39%. Spaghetti and macaroni is up 8.4%. Full Story
Former HUD Assistant Housing Secretary and investment advisor Catherine Austin Fitts reveals her thoughts on the ever-rising debt ceiling… what Obamacare is really about (and that’s not socialized healthcare)… why over $4 trillion missing from federal programs may not be incompetence, but a covert strategy… how to protect yourself from the constant devaluation of the US dollar… and what exactly the Popsicle Index measures and why it matters. Full Story
Charles Oliver joined Sprott Asset Management LP in January 2008. He focuses on gold and silver investments as a portfolio manager for the Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund and the Silver Equities Class. When I spoke to Mr. Oliver last summer, he said the weakness in the gold price in the face of unprecedented money printing from the Fed had taken him by surprise. Full Story
This collection of charts is for those who do not like a lot of verbiage to justify an investment decision -- just the facts. Two primary themes drive the specific chart selections presented here: First, it is clear that none of the factors which caused the financial crisis of 2008 have been addressed in any sustainable fashion by those charged with setting economic policy. Explosions in both the monetary base and reserve bank credit show they have simply been 'papered-over' - a far-cry from a lasting solution. In fact, one could argue (and many have) that such policies may one day fuel a second tier to the crisis even more damaging than the first. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 March, 2014
After two days of hectoring the U.S. State Department by telephone and e-mail, and doing so as a newspaper editor, your secretary/treasurer today recruited his U.S. representative's office to try to extract from State an answer to the question of whether the U.S. government has taken custody of Ukraine's gold reserves, as suggested by news reports... Full Story
Capitalism, the bankers’ three hundred year-old ponzi-scheme, is a balancing act between the bankers’ credit and everyone else’s debt. In its optimal state, credit creates sufficient growth to pay society’s constantly compounding debts. When unable to do so, debt is paid by borrowing against future growth and in capitalism’s end game, aggregate debt exponentially expands until it can no longer be repaid except by exponentially depreciating paper money. Full Story
Bear markets can be devious creatures. They start off with a lot of emotion, usually some type of euphoria and excessive optimism at the top. But underneath it all the market is typically thrashing, making volatile swings as buyers are piling in at the wrong time and sellers are taking profits. Once the sellers take control the bear market starts it’s downtrend. At that point the bear launches into it’s second phase of faking out market participants, i.e., the bear market rally. These periodic false rallies serve to make it look like the bear has ended. But once each bear market rally fails, the next leg of the bear market is kicked off. Full Story
Briefly: In our opinion short speculative positions (half) in silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. There were basically no changes in gold, silver and mining stock charts yesterday, except for gold moving slightly higher on news about increased tensions in Ukraine. Gold’s reaction was once again weak. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 March, 2014
A spokesman for the New York Fed said simply: "Any inquiry regarding gold accounts should be directed to the account holder. You may want to contact the National Bank of Ukraine to discuss this report." GATA's similar inquiry of last night to the U.S. State Department has not yet prompted any reply. Last night GATA called this issue to the attention of about 30 mainstream financial journalists and newsletter writers in the admittedly bizarre hope that they might pose the question as well. Full Story
It can be difficult to completely avoid a $5 trillion elephant in the middle of one's own living room. In an ironic twist, millions of people who are investing for retirement specifically to escape from dependence on Social Security may find that no matter where in the room they go – that elephant is still there. And over the years ahead, the spending down of the $5 trillion in Treasury bonds held in Social Security and other government trust funds may be transforming the returns on their private savings in ways they never anticipated. Full Story
There are some key ways to find out if your financial advisor is working with your best interest in mind – and if they have the skill required to handle your nest egg. We’ve identified the top 5 red flags that will help you quickly determine whether you advisor is worth his weight in gold – or whether he’s using your portfolio to rake in money for himself. Learn more with this important article. Full Story
Gold in December of 2013 had dropped to the lower logarithmic trend line after falling for 2.4 years. The patterns suggest that the next move should be a rally that lasts approximately 3 years to new highs near the top of the trend channel well above $3,500. Full Story
The rally in gold that began in January has stunned most money managers. They were predicting a horrible year for gold in 2014, and a great year for US stock markets. So far, they are dead wrong. The Dow has gained no ground, while gold, silver, and precious metal stocks have performed like champions. From a fundamental perspective, the main sources of gold demand are Indian and Chinese gold jewellery buyers, Western retail clients, institutional money managers, and central banks. Full Story
Gold is coming back with a vengeance, experiencing a clear recovery and grabbing the attention of market cynics. Analysts from Noruma Securities even upgraded its outlook for gold, expecting bullion to climb over the next three years, according to Barron’s. Nomura analysts attribute their increased gold forecast to real interest rates that “don’t seem to be heading anywhere at the moment.” In addition, there appears to be “long-term demand support from Asian nominal income growth, an evolving post-QE macroeconomic environment and lower disinvestment potential.” Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 11 March, 2014
For those investors who have grown used to the relatively minor geo-political crises of the past few years, the developing situation in the Ukraine and the Crimea must come as an unexpected communiqué from the early 20th Century.There can be little doubt that the drama will impact financial markets. While President Obama is doing his best to invert Teddy Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach to foreign policy, the real issue is how Crimea's proposed secession from Ukraine will lay bare the opacity of international law with respect to issues of sovereignty. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 March, 2014
GATA tonight asked the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the U.S. State Department to disclose whether the United States has taken custody of Ukraine's gold reserves. A publicist for the New York Fed immediately acknowledged the inquiry and said he would look into the issue right away. We'll keep you posted. Full Story
PDAC curse or blessing? Fresh from the Letter Writer Presentations track at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference, The Gold Report asked thought leaders to share their impressions from the annual minefest. Adrian Day Asset Management Founder Adrian Day, Exploration Insights Publisher Brent Cook, House Mountain Partners Founder Chris Berry and The Daily Gold Premium Publisher Jordan Roy-Byrne used terms such as "realistic" and "muted." Eric Coffin, editor of Hard Rock Analyst, posited that the lack of excitement might actually benefit those few players that rose on good conference-timed news because it removed the chance of a "PDAC curse" dropping stock prices after the event. Let's see if all the voices agree. Full Story
Many investors, especially those new to precious metals, don't know that gold is seasonal. For a variety of reasons, notably including the wedding season in India, the price of gold fluctuates in fairly consistent ways over the course of the year. This pattern is borne out by decades of data, and hence has obvious implications for gold investors. Can you guess which is the best month for buying gold? Full Story
Every week, our investment team reviews a variety of sources to formulate a summary of the top events in the gold, resources, and emerging markets. The results are categorized in terms of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. We believe this SWOT model helps investors make informed decisions about their gold and gold stock investments. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I want to take a good hard look at silver which has been the laggard in the precious metals complex to see if there is something technically wrong. If you been following the precious metals complex for any length of time you’ll know that silver can be contrarian at times. It likes to start out slow and then once gold begins to pickup the pace then silver will play catchup. Once silver gets ready to move it can rally hard and fast catching up to gold and surpassing in on a percentage basis. So far since the December low silver is playing its game of Opossum by looking weak and not confirming the move in gold or the precious metals stocks. I think this is a deceptive look on silver right now. Full Story
Gold went up and silver went down this week. It’s natural for most people to say, “gold went up”, but it’s the most unnatural phenomenon. The dollar is paper scrip issued by the Fed. The fine print tells you that it’s irredeemable, which is like a promise to give you a kilo of sugar that will never be honored. The quantity of this paper is rising while its quality is falling. Everyone knows that its value is unstable, and over long periods of time its value falls alarmingly. And yet we still presume to use this paper to measure the value of gold! Full Story
The head of Kirby Analytics says that the Fed is merely a puppet of a more nefarious institution, the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). Run by the US Treasury, the ESF controls not only global interest rates, but the US equities markets and the precious metals markets, in fact any index of its choice. He agrees with John Williams from Shadowstats, that hyperinflation is inevitable, resulting with a lofty silver price zenith of as high as four digits. Puru Saxena of Puru Saxena Wealth Management says, now that gold, silver and related equities have moved above their respective 200 day moving averages, he's turned bullish on the precious metal sector, due in part to US dollar weakness. The money manager thinks that silver will significantly outperform gold once investors regain their affinity for the metals. Full Story
I think Lord Keynes himself would appreciate the irony that he has become the defunct economist under whose influence the academic and bureaucratic classes now toil, slaves to what has become as much a religious belief system as it is an economic theory. Men and women who display an appropriate amount of skepticism on all manner of other topics indiscriminately funnel a wide assortment of facts and data through the filter of Keynesianism without ever questioning its basic assumptions. And then some of them go on to prescribe government policies that have profound effects upon the citizens of their nations. Full Story
It’s not been a good start to the year for gold analysts. Nomura has just been revising its 2014 forecasts upwards. That’s always a way to make sure you meet your forecast for the year. It helps too if you start by pointing it in the right direction. Readers of the ArabianMoney private circulation newsletter (sign-up here) will recall how we saw a double-bottom formed by the December low last year and presented a rosy outlook for 2104 to some loud cat calling from some quarters. Both gold and silver quickly stepped up to the mark and left the S&P 500 in the shade in January. Full Story
It has been quite some time since we did a ‘Myth Busters’, even though there obviously remains quite a bit of mythology. So we’re going to chop away at it piece by piece and demonstrate once again that the media, government, and what I like to the call the ‘establishment’ (which is the concatenation of the aforementioned and the banksters) couldn’t give a rip about the truth. The establishment only cares about what is expedient and convenient for itself. Full Story
Trying to predict short term direction is notoriously difficult, especially in the volatile metals market, but I'm going to take a stab at it today. First off let me start with the big picture: For almost a year now I've been saying that the inflation that's been stored in the stock market for the last three years is eventually going to start leaking into the commodity markets. You can see in the next chart that process has begun as smart money investors begin to move capital out of an overvalued and overextended stock market that is destined to top some time during the first half of this year, and into undervalued commodity markets where they are getting a better return on their investment. Full Story
There is something going on in the gold and silver market, and it is difficult to ascertain exactly what it is. Perhaps it can best be described as a change in market behavior that may be defining a potential change in trend. For many, the presumption has been, “Gold and silver are going to go to the moon, for the following reason[s]….” What followed was then a litany of the same facts that have been widely known for well over a year, and the same types of graphs depicting various aspects, [depleted gold stocks, cost of production v current price, etc], very often nicely colored and reproduced, but to no practical effect, at least in terms of the direction of price for gold and silver which continued lower until the end of 2013. Full Story
A choppy week in the end for markets with leading stocks really not doing much for the most part which has me thinking we do need some consolidation at these levels here. That said, every dip has been relatively short-lived and bought heavily for well over a year so I’ll be watching closely for a quick turnaround. While the leading stocks weren’t doing much, the good news is many smaller, very cheap stocks are moving huge and are very trade-able, especially on an intraday basis. Full Story
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