By: Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories - 14 February, 2014
As I expected, the US Fed pulled the trigger and announced an initial “taper” of the Quantitative Easing (QE) program. Starting this monthly purchases of T Bills and Mortgage Backed Securities will be reduced by $10 billion. Equity markets rallied strongly then flattened as traders locked in profits and awaited earnings and fresh economic readings. Mom and Pop were piling into Wall St but no one who actually works there thought things look very cheap. Full Story
James Turk, founder of precious metals accumulation pioneer GoldMoney, has over 40 years' experience in international banking, finance, and investments. He began his career at the Chase Manhattan Bank and in 1983 was appointed manager of the commodity department of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 14 February, 2014
Gold stocks just surged to a major technical breakout, a very bullish omen. Investors are actually starting to redeploy capital in this battered sector, catapulting gold stocks into the early lead as 2014’s best performers! This year is shaping up to be the polar opposite of last year’s epic carnage, with gold stocks mean reverting back up to fundamentally-reasonable levels. The vast majority of the buying is still yet to come. Full Story
Knowing what “ain’t so” is increasingly important for Investors and Traders Going Forward. Indeed, going into 2014 perhaps the most important Realization to be made is that certain Grand Investment & Trading Strategies and Assumptions which were profitable in the past (e.g., in 2013) may well not be profitable in 2014 and beyond. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 14 February, 2014
Warning, I'm not a licensed financial planner, a broker, an analyst, a geologist nor an economist. And I'm also not, as you so often tell me in your e-mails regarding my articles, an English professor. I'm also not a doom and gloomer nor am I a gold bug. I'm just an investor who believes precious metals are the only financial safety net worth owning and need to be the cornerstone of any generational wealth building program. Full Story
Today another piece fell into place in my Great Inflation scenario that I'm expecting for 2014. Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Great Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis. Full Story
“No Janet, the economy is not getting better.” This was a Zero Hedge headline this morning, on a day in which yet another historic snowstorm is pounding the Eastern Seaboard. Luckily for “Whirlybird Janet,” it was powerful enough to cancel today’s Senate economic testimony; at which, she’d continue to speak of the economic “recovery” that has been supposedly ongoing for five years – but hasn’t increased anything but unemployment, debt, entitlements, wealth inequality and political infighting. Heck, Rand Paul – who may well be the Republican Presidential candidate in 2016 – actually sued Obama today! Full Story
We preface the post with a statement that has not changed since I began public writing nearly 10 years ago: Gold is not about price; gold is about value. This point was hammered home to me 11 years ago by a person who had much influence upon my viewpoint toward the financial system and its various diseased components at a time when I was ready to listen and understand. Full Story
The China Gold Association this week released estimates for China's "gold consumption" for 2013 at 1,176 tonnes. Furthermore the CGA reported China's own gold production at 428 tonnes. The CGA's figures were significantly less than recorded imports into China from Hong Kong. Instead, on my analysis, the CGA figures do not represent total demand, but presumably only that portion reported to it by its members at the retail level. The purpose of this article is to set the record straight. Full Story
Nothing matters to anybody until it matters to everybody — and by then it's too late. This could easily be said for the gold and silver price manipulation. The question is whether the end comes before or after a concurrent monetary collapse, currency crisis, or hyperinflation. Full Story
In recent months we compared the bear market in gold stocks to bear markets of the past. Readers were probably getting sick of seeing our bear analogs chart which made the case that a major bottom was coming. The good news is the major bottom is in and now we can compare the current recovery with past recoveries. GDX and GDXJ continue to form a very bullish bottoming pattern and we want to see how their measured targets (and potential upside) mesh with historical recoveries. Full Story
The moment gold passed the $1,300 mark yesterday silver woke up and sprinted ahead with a larger percentage gain. That’s the way it works with these monetary metal twins. But how can any investment adviser really recommend something as volatile and difficult to time as silver? It often seems more trouble than it is worth because its long-term outperformance against gold comes at the price of short-term volatility. Full Story
Gold has now rallied over 10% since December 31. This, in the words of one analyst who achieved widespread publicity was meant to be “a slam-dunk sell”. Instead, gold has soared through its 50-day moving average as well as the 200. Furthermore, the 200-day is itself turning round and will shortly be rising. Technical analysts are beginning to think about a trend reversal signalled by a “golden cross”, with the 50-day moving average crossing above a rising 200. Full Story
SO GOLD in January did what it tends to do, and rose as equities fell. That uptrend drew in "momentum traders" in Feb, pushing gold higher by backing gold's 2014 rally to run further. But this hot money perhaps ran into resistance this morning, just below $1300 per ounce. And for all gold's new-found love (check the flood of bullish stories from Barron's magazine, for instance), a couple of senior bank analysts say 2013's sell-off isn't done yet. Full Story
Traditionally, bonds have been looked at as one of the safest investments around. To see whether this is really true, we first define safety and its counterpart risk. Then we look at the top 3 risks investments have to see if bonds pass all three categories. What we show many change the way you think bonds fit into your portfolio. Full Story
Before we get into tonight’s charts I would like to explain what my goal is right now for the precious metals complex. We never know 100% for sure when we have a bottom in place. All we can do is look at the charts and indicators and try to get the odds in our favor on when to make a move. For the short to intermediate term I think we have a decent bottom in place in which we can try to take advantage of a move higher. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 February, 2014
After a slower than average sales month in January, Silver Eagle sales picked up significantly in February. In the first eleven days of the month, the U.S. Mint sold nearly 1.7 million Silver Eagles. In a recent article, I mentioned that I spoke with Michael White, Public Affairs person for the U.S. Mint. I recently received a reply from Mr. White and continue to get updates and information from his office on Eagle Sales. Full Story
A BOOK COULD BE WRITTEN ON THE SUBJECT OF GOLD AS A HEDGE against the various ‘flations. I hope the short sketches provided over the course of this series will serve at least as a functional introduction to the subject. The conclusion is clear: History shows that gold, better than any other asset, protects the portfolio against the range of ultra-negative economic scenarios, such so-called black swan, or outlier, events as deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation or hyperinflation. Full Story
With the games in Sochi underway, people around the world are tuned in to watch the competition heat up in their favorite cold-weather sports, including cross-country skiing, snowboarding and hockey. Back in Washington, we watched Ben Bernanke officially “pass the puck” to Janet Yellen, who became the new chairman of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors last week. Full Story
For the first time ever, the majority of Americans are scared of their own federal government. A Pew Research poll found that 53% of Americans think the government threatens their personal rights and freedoms. Americans aren't wild about the government's currency either. Instead of holding dollars and other financial assets, investors are storing wealth in art, wine, and antique cars. The Economist reported in November, "This buying binge… is growing distrust of financial assets." Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 February, 2014
Your secretary/treasurer has just returned from what seemed like a productive week in Suriname, the former Dutch Guyana in northeastern South America, a country whose foremost export revenue generator is gold, thanks to the Gros Rosebel mine operated by Iamgold. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 11 February, 2014
In our current age of spin and counter-spin, there is no contortion too great for a politician to attempt. On occasion, however, the threads of one story become entangled with another in a manner that should deeply embarrass, if the media were sharp enough to catch it. This happened last week in response to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) bombshell report on how Obamacare incentives could reduce the size of the labor force by more than two million workers by 2017. Full Story
On Janet Yellen’s first day on the job as Fed Chair, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 326 points; 10-year Treasury yields fell to a mere 2.58%. While a day does not set a trend, let alone create a legacy, there is no honeymoon for Janet Yellen. Volatility, seemingly absent in 2013, is back, with major implications for investors’ portfolios. Full Story
In the gold market, there may be a “perfect storm” of bullish fundamental forces converging now. First, gold jewellery companies in China are reporting phenomenal increases of 15% - 50% in sales, for the Chinese New Year buying season. Late in 2013, many bank economists lined up to claim that the 1000 tons of gold demand that occurred in China in 2013 was a onetime event, unlikely to be repeated in 2014. It’s still early in the year, but there’s no question that Chinese citizens are buying gold jewellery aggressively. Do the bank “econs” now have a little egg on their faces? I think so, and that egg is golden. Full Story
Just because you've reached 65 doesn't mean you have to retire - that is, if you don't want to. There are many people out there who stick with a job well past "retirement age" simply because they enjoy it. Unfortunately, there are also people out there who stick with a job because they have to. Simply reaching 65 doesn't put you into either of these camps. So, how does the age relate to retirement? Well, that's really up to you. Read on to see some questions you may want to ask yourself to figure it out. Full Story
Germany requested that the NY Federal Reserve return the gold that Germany shipped to the United States decades ago. If the gold were physically in the vaults, it would be relatively simple to ship the gold back to Germany. It has not been returned, which begs the question, where is Germany’s gold? Full Story
Many investors become fixated or lock on to only one or two equity classes due to either personal philosophy or because they become comfortable with them. The analogy, I suppose, would be to always have meat and potatoes for dinner. This can become a stale strategy however, particularly if your dinner was precious metals for the last two years. Full Story
As a gold investor in North America, it sometimes feels like I'm living in some far-off land where everyone believes in fairy tales and unicorns. Most people around me don't seem to see anything wrong with the Fed creating $65 billion a month out of thin air—hey, it's not $85 billion anymore, what a relief! It's business as usual for the US government to spend billions more than it takes in, and a public debt hovering at $17.2 trillion—up from $7 trillion just 10 years ago—seems no more alarming than a rainbow. Full Story
My own personal circumstances aside, it appears we are also entering a trying time for stock market bulls, precious metals bears, and the powers that be, this being signaled in the apparent fifth-wave failure of the Dow / Gold Ratio (DGR) last week. The failure occurred on Thursday with a five-wave sequence tracing out to the downside, which was both confirmed and extended sufficiently on Friday to remove any doubt as to the move’s impulsive nature. Full Story
Every week, our investment team reviews a variety of sources to formulate a summary of the top events in the gold, resources, and emerging markets. The results are categorized in terms of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. We believe this SWOT model helps investors make informed decisions about their gold and gold stock investments. Full Story
The United States is fast racking up characteristics of a Third World nation. Its finances are Third World. Its president is Third World. Its banking integrity is Third World. Its absent industry is Third World. Its decaying cities are Third World. It urgently begs for a Third World currency, but that is soon to be remedied. The nation has been a freeloader on the global reserve currency for too long. That is about to end. For the last three years, the United States has been living in a fairy tale with bailouts from the vast bond monetization. Full Story
In this Weekend Report we’re going to look at some short term charts for the precious stock indexes and try to decipher if this congestion zone they’ve been trading in for the last two weeks or so is a consolidation pattern that will allow the price action to rally up to the next area of resistance or is this two week chopping action actually a topping pattern and the precious metals stocks are in for another rough go of it. Man that was a long sentence. The sooner we can figure out what has been building out over the last several weeks the sooner we can take advantage of the situation. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 10 February, 2014
1) The monetary backdrop continues to be very different in the US today than it was in earlier post-bubble periods. This is slowing the corrective process and introducing new price distortions that will have to be 'resolved' via another devastating economic bust. When will they ever learn? 2) Economic declines will become progressively more serious and economic recoveries will become progressively weaker until there is wide recognition that the central bank is a big part of the problem as opposed to part of the solution. Full Story
A similar crisis had happened before and bankers understood that if the circulatory system, i.e. credit markets, [continued] to fail, a deflationary collapse in demand even more severe than the Great Depression would happen. In 2008, aggregate levels of debt were far higher than in the 1930s and the consequences would be also. Full Story
The opposite sentiment of "gold fever" has been apparent in the stock market, of late, with so many calls for a top and/or a crash. Gold has not rallied to higher levels called for, and the stock market has not fallen to levels that resemble a crash. Trust in the Fed a little more. That criminal body is not about to let the market go down without more of a taper fight. It is not yet game over, at least for the market in general. The same may not be true of individual stocks within one's portfolio, and that is where the focus should lie. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 10 February, 2014
Responding to suggestions last week from Germany's Bundesbank that it must repatriate its gold slowly from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for security reasons, possibly at a rate of no more than 1 tonne per week over six years -- GATA's friend and consultant R.M. recalls how fast Venezuela managed to repatriate its gold from the Bank of England and other banks over the same expanse of ocean in 2012. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 February, 2014
What a difference a week makes! Last Monday, with the Dow Industrials approaching the nadir of a nearly 1200-point slide, one might have thought the world was about to end. In just one issue of The Wall Street Journal, we read about a nascent slump in housing and auto sales; a deflationary trend in pricing power for a wide swath of U.S. businesses, particularly mid-tier retailers; a shift toward defensive stocks by portfolio managers; and, alarming growth in the debts of emerging nations. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Chairman, Mauldin Economics - 9 February, 2014
The devil is in the details, we are told, and the details are often buried in an appendix or footnote. This week we were confronted with a rather troubling appendix in the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the Affordable Care Act, which suggests that the act will have a rather profound impact on employment patterns. You could tell a person's political leaning by how they responded. Republicans jumped all over this. Full Story
Only a major crash in global stock markets is likely to avoid this being a very boring year for the gold price, according to the precious metals panel that deliberated on the price of gold this afternoon at the inaugural Global Commodities Outlook Conference, held in the Almas Tower in the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 9 February, 2014
Government records from decades ago don't necessarily prove what governments are doing today, but they can demonstrate the possibly enduring interest of governments in the matters at issue. That's what is done by two more U.S. State Department documents called to GATA's attention this week by our friend J.V. Full Story
For over a year now I've been expecting 2014 to be the year when the unintended consequences of five years of QE come home to roost. By the end of the year we are going to have a massive inflationary spike in commodity prices that will collapse the global economy. It's all going to start with a final manic melt up phase in the stock market over the next 3-4 months. Make no mistake this bull market will not be over until the NASDAQ tests it’s all time high above 5000. Full Story
The fundamentals for gold and silver worsen with each passing week, it seems, yet the price for gold and silver still languish in down trends. If everything is as precarious as is depicted in so many other articles citing how PMs are in dire straights, for the same deteriorating reasons presented with pinpoint numbers, as in reduced stocks of deliverable metals, increased transfers from West to East, why are gold and silver still near recent lows for the past two years? Full Story
A very wild week in the markets with some great strength coming in and stocks moving very swiftly to the upside after coming back from the edge. Early Wednesday we were just about to breakdown and the move lower would have been quite large and caused the panic that makes lows but it didn’t come. Many traders stayed home due to weather that day, and that may be the only reason we held on and then ripped higher. Full Story
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