Despite all the ominous press being devoted to the soon-to-be-inverted yield curve, it’s not always clear why such a thing matters. In other words, how, exactly does a line on a graph slipping below zero translate into a recession and equities bear market, with all the turmoil that those things imply? Full Story
We all know that positioning and sentiment are bullish for Gold and have been since May. Hence the need to focus on the technical picture. As I reported last week, Gold is in a Bear Flag following its drop from 1369 in April to 1167 in October. It touched channel resistance at 1257 on Monday, but the closing high was 1253, strong Fibonacci resistance. Gold has fallen back since. Now the 200-day moving average has fallen to meet the top of the rising channel at 1259. Full Story
Cheap money won't do it and if you need any more proof, all it will do is temporarily boost it. Just like a heroin addict, again this is monetary meth, yeah it juices him up for a little while and then they go under and eventually they OD. Take a look at Japan, look at their last GDP numbers. They came in at -2.5, that's despite negative interest rates. The Japanese Central Bank taking in $5 trillion worth of debt, more than the entire GDP of Japan with negative interest rates, negative bond yields and they still can't pump up the market. Full Story
The beleaguered gold stocks are recovering from their late-summer capitulation, enjoying a solid young upleg as investors gradually return. Their buying has pushed the leading gold-stock ETF near a major triple breakout technically. That event should really boost capital inflows into this sector, accelerating the rally. A major gold and gold-stock buying catalyst is likely imminent too, a more-dovish Fed next week. Full Story
At the heart of the bill, it allows state owned organizations to be treated as companies, rather than as a part of the state. It means national oil producing companies like Saudi Aramco could be sued under US antitrust law for anti-competitive attempts to limit global petroleum supply, and the consequent impact on oil prices. With almost certainty these state-owned producers would be found guilty of price manipulation and limiting supply to increase profit. Full Story
People continually ask “when” will it happen? For the last 6 months we have responded “it is happening right before your very eyes”! In fact, as of this morning 52% of global markets are now down over 20% from their highs and qualifying as bear markets. Please understand the financial backdrop these weakening markets are falling into. Bluntly, the world is facing a giant margin call that cannot be met. Full Story
The national debt of the United States is about to hit another major milestone, getting ready to soar past $22 trillion for the first time ever. Clearly that is an enormous number… it’s actually larger than the size of the entire US economy, which is pretty incredible. Full Story
Founder of the Trends Research Institute and Globalnomic® Trend Forecaster Gerald Celente returns with the economic forecast for the new year. $1,200 is the floor for gold - once the bulls push the price over $1,450 the sea change in sentiment could ignite an ascent to a new record over $2,000. Topping the list of catalysts that could move the PMs sector include a spike in oil price from a potential war in the Persian Gulf or the Ukraine. Full Story
This article is an overview of the principal factors likely to drive the gold price in 2019. It looks at the global factors that have developed in 2018 for both gold and the dollar, how geopolitics are likely to evolve, the economic outlook and how it is worsened for the dollar by President Trump’s tariff war against China, the availability and likely demand for bullion, and the technical position in paper markets. Taken together, the outlook is bullish for gold. Full Story
Mining stocks have performed miserably over the past seven years, missing out completely on the central bank-created liquidity-fest that has raised nearly every other equity sector to record highs. But the long winter of abuse is over, claims highly-respected mining analyst John Hathaway, co-manager of the Toqueville Gold Fund. To John's veteran eye, the conditions in this beleaguered industry have improved substantially. Mining supply is tightening while demand is rising, and the surviving companies have achieved positive cash flows at today's depressed prices. Full Story
I thought I’d seen all the “Peter Schiff Was Right” videos, but just stumbled onto this 2006 CNBC classic pitting Schiff against a new cast of (in retrospect) clueless antagonists, including a “chief economist” with some quaintly credulous ideas. This was the peak of the subprime mortgage mania, so the Bubblevision talking heads still considered the Fed to be “THE experts” on inflation and were — as usual in these videos — both shocked and amused to hear someone bad-mouthing the economy and its stewards. Full Story
Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold) got to destination. Amigo #3 is the Yield Curve and it is still flattening like a pancake and while you could say it is very near destination, it has not yet started to steepen and so, is not yet virulent toward stock bulls. In 2007 the stock market did not top until well after the curve steepening began but in 2000 the conditions occurred in unison. All in all risk is still very high, as it has been for most of 2018, actually. Full Story
Central banks’ purchases create a floor for gold prices. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the central banks’ demand for gold and find out whether it will save gold. Gold is an important part of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. As of H1 2018, they hold about 34,000 tons of bullion worth $1.36 trillion, or 10.3 percent of the total reserves, according to the World Gold Council. Full Story
By letters in July and September, GATA asked the commission to explain the explosion in the use of the "exchange for physicals" mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodity Exchange; to determine whether gold futures prices had been linked by the Chinese government's manipulative trading to the value of the yuan; and whether the commission has jurisdiction over manipulative futures trading by the U.S. government itself. Full Story
The dollar index has been rising since Trump began his war on trade. But right now it’s at the same 97 index level as when Trump was elected. Recall that Trump’s administration pushed down starting in 2017 to stimulate exports and attempt to cut the trade deficit. The dollar fell from 97 to 88. Gold ran from $1125 to as high as $1360 – a key technical breakout level – by late April 2018. Full Story
In the past, I have outlined why fundamentals look best at market highs, and worst at market lows. And, just like we normally experience, as we were soaring over 2900, I am sure many of you were convinced that this was one of the best economies we have seen in quite some time. But, we seem to have topped on those great expectations. Full Story
Although stocks have taken an unpleasant hit since early October, the market is not exactly falling apart. Let your eyes take in the big picture shown in today’s chart (inset). It wouldn’t be stretching things visually to say the blue chip average has spent most of the year in a consolidation, presumably biding its time until economic news turns more favorable. In the meantime, one could reasonably infer that shares have held their ground under difficult circumstances, including growing weakness in the housing, automobile and retail sectors. Full Story
The CPI was unchanged in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in October. It was the weakest number since March 2018, when monthly inflation fell about 0.1 percent. However, the flat reading was caused by a sharp decline in the price of gasoline – that subindex dropped 4.2 percent in November, offsetting increases in an array of prices including shelter and used cars and trucks. But the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2 percent last month, the same change as in October. So, don’t worry about the upcoming deflation. Full Story
The two charts above in combination with last week's silver COT allow me to establish a strategic "double-tap" in that we have technical evidence of a breakout in silver with the 200-dma moving average at $15.56 in the crosshairs while we have the gold-silver ratio (GTSR) above 85, an ideal entry point for silver relative to gold. Since gold has broken back above $1,250, it stands to reason that the GTSR should decline, which gives silver added torque going into year-end. Full Story
Trump’s strategy to hit China with a low dollar and low interest rates is a good one. The problem is, without the Fed on board, it’s going nowhere. They should be cooperating to beat China, which we’ve argued, is the biggest threat to the United States (not Russia) but instead, they’re at loggerheads. How will this end? Full Story
Few markets are as depressed – and, as many analysts argue, suppressed – as silver. Prices for the white metal continue to languish in a low-level trading range amidst lackluster demand. The upshot for investors is that they can now obtain silver bullion at both a low spot price and a low premium above spot. How long this buyer’s market will is unknowable last. But given silver’s manic-depressive personality, prices could launch explosively higher at any time. Full Story
It would seem that we are now closer to point b, where that major monetary event could start to happen. An event similar to the 1933 gold confiscation (bankruptcy) and the 1971 announcement where the US ended the dollar convertibility to gold (at a fixed rate). The stock market was always going to be the trigger for this event, and it is now very extended. When it falls over, we can almost be sure that big financial pain is coming. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
Incredible! The Dow swung nearly 570 points on Tuesday without breaking above or below the previous day’s range. This is what chartists refer to as an “inside day.” In fact, the blue chip average didn’t traverse even half of Monday’s epic, 1214-point swing. Get used to the wild oscillations, since volatility is unlikely to subside until we come to regard a bet on more of it as a sure thing. Paradoxically, because the big moves up or down lately have more or less alternated from one day to the next, VXX, which measures short-term SPX volatility, has remained relatively subdued. Full Story
The gold price went vertical the moment that trading began in New York at 6:00 p.m. EST on Sunday evening in New York. but the short sellers of last resort were there in seconds -- and from that point the price chopped quietly sideways until shortly before 3 p.m. China Standard Time on their Monday afternoon. Full Story
Each of the past five years, we've predicted a year-end and new-year rally in precious metals. And for each of the past five years, the market has performed as forecast. So, what can be expected as 2018 becomes 2019? Let's begin with the past. As mentioned above, each of the past five years have seen year-end gold and silver price rallies. These rallies have begun around the time of the December FOMC, they have persisted through any remaining tax-loss selling, and they extended into the new year. Full Story
In part II of the discussion, Peter Schiff, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) offers his latest insights. Gold and related precious metals markets are building a base for the next big bull run, similar to palladium, projected by the host to surpass gold. The guest advocates converting cryptocurrencies into discounted PMs to benefit from the new uptrend, as Crypto-geddon, losses extend to 2019. Full Story
The Global Financial Crisis, a broader deeper more powerful systemic crisis than the Lehman Event was, has finally arrived in a great redux. It is seen in numerous areas. We have finally arrived at the ten-year anniversary of the Lehman event, a killjob whereby JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs bought a few $billion in mortgage bonds and never paid Lehman Brothers. The firm died, called a financial failure, but was actually a strangulation. Goldman went on to capture AIG, in order to claim 100 cents per dollar on insured mortgage bonds, a second crime. Full Story
I chuckle when the hedge fund algos grab onto “positive” trade war headlines and trigger a sharp spike in stock futures. Settlement of the trade war between the Trump Government and China will do nothing to prevent a global economic recession – a recession which will likely deteriorate into a painful depression. The Central Bank “QE” maneuver was successful in camouflaging and deferring the symptoms of economic collapse. Full Story
Where are the populist government leaders who are cutting their outrageous government debts? The answer, unfortunately, is that they do not exist. Citizens riot in France over insane fuel taxes, central bankers resign in India, markets crash in America, and England’s citizens watch their Brexit turn into an overpriced wet noodle. None of this fazes the world’s populist leaders. They believe they alone can fix what debt broke… with more debt! Full Story
Two months ago we warned of October being the month markets have been known to go bump in the night – 1907, 1929, 1987, 1997, 2007, 2008. Sure enough, on October 2 the Dow Jones Industrial closed at 26,828. By the end of the month, it stood at 25,115 – down over 1700 points and nearly 6.5%. Since then stock market psychology has undergone a radical transformation – an abrupt reversal with important implications for the long term. Full Story
Tonight I would like to show you some charts from the PM complex we haven’t looked at in a long time. Some of these charts will look familiar to some of our long term members as they were very helpful in the past to help us figure out what the PM complex was up to. This first chart is a ratio combo chart which has the GOLD:XAU on top and the XAU on the bottom. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the XAU. Full Story
You have heard it before. “Those are good companies with great earnings…” Nothing in that statement means the stock price can’t rise to high risk levels or that the price can’t fall 30—80% from its highs. Machines and debt largely run the markets in 2018, and they can push markets too high and then excessively low. Full Story
A few years ago the Swiss National Bank (SNB) – which traditionally held “monetary assets” like government bonds, cash and gold to back up the Swiss franc — decided to branch out into common stocks. This was a departure, but for a while a brilliant one. The SNB loaded up on Big Tech like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft, and rode them to massive profits, which enriched both the Swiss people and the SNB’s stockholders (in another departure, it’s a publicly traded company as well as a central bank). Full Story
Last week I had the opportunity to attend the Young Presidents Organization (YPO) parliamentary intelligence forum in Washington, D.C. More than 200 members of parliaments from as many as 60 European countries joined us to hear from such dignitaries as Congressmen Robert Pittenger (R-NC) and Mike McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the Homeland Security Committee. Full Story
Hence, given the labor market’s strength, the Fed should continue its policy of gradual tightening. It means that gold should remain under downward pressure from the monetary policy. The appreciation of the US dollar against the British pound due to the fresh Brexit-related turmoil should also be not very helpful for the yellow metal. The hope is that next year investors will look into 2020 – and then the Fed could really be more dovish. Next week, after the Fed’s economic projections, the outlook for the gold market will be clearer – stay tuned! Full Story
This past week was quite interesting, as well as volatile. On Monday, we had a huge gap up right into the initial resistance region we had on our charts in the 2810-15SPX region. In fact, the futures struck a high of 2813ES, and then turned down. Full Story
The precious metals sector has just one standout performer this year, and that is palladium. Lately the market for that metal has gotten more than just hot. Developments there could have implications for the LBMA and the rickety fractional reserve system of inventory underpinning all of the physical precious metals markets. Full Story
The Baby Boom generation may be the first generation to leave less to their children than they inherited. Or to leave nothing at all. We hear lots—often from Baby Boomers—about the propensities of their children’s generation. The millennials don’t have good jobs, don’t save, don’t buy houses in the same proportions as their parents, etc. Full Story
We dumb field geologists, and I proudly count myself in that category, are a rather odd lot. We’re not your regular eight to five white collar types and we are way too educated to be real blue collar guys. Notice I say “guys” because we outnumber the fair sex in our business by about 9:1. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 3.88 percent on very tight physical markets. Dutch bank ABN Amro noted that palladium has overshot and may slide back 20 percent to $1,000. Gold traders and analysts are the most bullish they’ve been in at least three years on the yellow metal this week, according to Bloomberg’s weekly survey. Walter Pehowich, executive vice president of metal investments at Dillon Gage Precious Metals, says he expects “the price of gold to rally off a slowing economy and with the Fed being handcuffed from raising rates.” Full Story
Are you loving the volatility yet? It was a week of 800 point plunges followed by huge rallies only to plunge again. Whatever joy came from the previous week’s sharp up move was wiped out this past week. The week ended on a sour note with a 500 plus point down day and the growing controversy over the arrest of the Huawei executive triggering a potential global conflab tied up in the trade wars and sanctions by the U.S. against almost everybody it seems. Full Story
Now that the world’s central banking cartel is taking a long-overdue pause from printing money and handing it to the wealthy elite, the collection of asset price bubbles nested within the Everything Bubble are starting to burst. The cartel (especially the ECB and the Fed) is hoping it can gently deflate these bubbles it created, but that's a fantasy. Bubbles always burst badly; it's their nature to do so. Economic suffering and misery always accompany their termination. Full Story
If neither holds, we’ll shift our attention to market bellwether AAPL, which could fall as far as 160.23, a little more than $8 below current levels, if a 166.41 ‘secondary pivot’ fails. As of midnight, sellers were backing off, presumably because they haven’t forgotten the massive short-squeeze that hit stocks last Monday. Look for a test of the supports flagged above in any case, and assume the worst if they are easily breached. The next stop on the way down for the Mini-Dow would be 23582. Full Story
Apart from a 2-week period around the middle of the year, my Gold True Fundamentals Model (GTFM) has been bearish since mid-January 2018. There have been fluctuations along the way, but at no time since mid-January have the true fundamentals* been sustainably-supportive of the gold price. However, significant shifts occurred over the past fortnight and for the first time in quite a while the fundamental backdrop is now very close to turning gold-bullish. In fact, an argument could be made that it has already turned bullish. Full Story
Harry S. Dent Jr., the Author of Zero Hour and Editor of Economy and Markets newsletter, rejoins the show. Gold, silver and related shares appear to be building a solid base for an advance as well as cryptos where Bitcoin could ascend to $25,000. In Part II. with Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors, the narrative includes cryptocurrencies. The high level of misinformation surrounding the de facto currency of the future requires closer examination. Full Story
So to sum up, a market crash looks imminent and if it doesn’t start immediately it should get underway quite soon. Our strategy at this time is to be generally short the market, using inverse ETFs, which it is thought best to refrain from trading, whilst long a few exceptional stocks such as several we will look at in coming days, and unless the Fed caves in on its rate rise program, it is thought best to hold off from buying most PM sector investments until the initial crash phase has almost run its course. Full Story
Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember. That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see. Full Story
As for why non-Californians should care, well, just go back a decade and note how the federal government (read national taxpayers) had to take on nearly the entire $10 trillion liabilities of the mortgage industry. Bankrupt states will no doubt get similar bail-outs when their time comes. Which means the dysfunction will eventually find its way into the currency markets. Gold becomes more necessary with every one of these stories. Full Story
Over the past week, the gold and silver prices have held up rather well compared to the overall markets. While precious metals investors still fear that a huge sell-off in the gold and silver prices will take place during the next market crash, it seems that the metals continue to be very resilient during large market corrections. Full Story
November saw a continuation of significant trading in gold swaps by the Bank for International Settlements. After falling in August and September, the BIS' purchases of gold via gold swaps soared in October, falling back by around 64 tonnes in November. Full Story
Listen to what gold is saying. It’s not deflation that we have to worry about. We’re about to enter a multi year period of rising inflation. Seriously did you think years of QE weren’t going to have consequences at some point? Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
