World trade has fallen for the second quarter in a row. The decade of stagnation of industrial production in the United States, Japan, and European Union can be blamed on financial engineering, housing bubbles, war, and recently on destructive monetary policy in QE bond purchase program. It is not stimulus, but rather a destroyer of capital. The West contains several nations with heavy industrial emphasis, hardly advanced economies anymore. They risk a fall into the Third World from a generation of outsourcing, asset bubbles, and financial fraud, as soon as the new currency regime is installed as part of the financial RESET. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 14 October, 2016
The gold stocks are clearly in correction mode. The large caps (HUI, GDX) have corrected 30% while the juniors (GDXJ) have held up well in comparison by correcting the same amount. Given a number of factors (the size of the previous advance, the recent technical damage, stronger US$ index and rising yields) the gold stocks should continue to correct and consolidate in a larger sense. To gauge a potential path forward we present a new analog chart and compare the current correction to those from past markets. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 14 October, 2016
The gold miners’ stocks are suffering from universal and overwhelming bearishness today, with nearly everyone expecting further selling. That’s the natural reaction following this sector’s recent massive correction, which climaxed in one of its biggest daily plummets ever witnessed. But within bull markets, there’s no better time to buy aggressively than deep in a major selloff that’s riddled with great doubt and fear. Full Story
More and more insiders are warning of a potential systemic event. The first sign of real trouble concerned a number of investment legends choosing to close shop and return investors’ capital. The first real titan to bow out was Stanley Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller maintained average annual gains of nearly 30% for 30 years. He is arguably one of if not the greatest investor of the last three decades. Full Story
The Silver Investor's #1 Rule of silver investing, when all else fails there's silver, for instance, in the aftermath of a hurricane, ATM outages, etc. The recent addition of the Yuan to the IMF reserve SDR could be a game changer for currency hegemony and a big plus for precious metals investors. Eventually, David morgan expects the PTB to return the global currency system to de facto money - gold and silver. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 14 October, 2016
While some readers may feel as if I am being a bit “doom and gloomy” here, the situation in the global copper industry is much worse than most analysts realize. This is due to the fact that many analysts are forecasting copper supply deficits in the next few years, which would push the price of copper higher. Unfortunately, this sort of industry analysis is well behind the curve or even worse, guilty of wishful thinking. Full Story
Since the NIRP has not yielded the expected results – it could have actually weakened the condition of the banking sector and its ability to expand lending – a hot debate about the use of another weapon in the central banks’ heroic struggle with the deflationary pressure started. We mean of course helicopter money, also called monetary finance or money-financed fiscal programs. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 14 October, 2016
Gold’s recent breach of the key low at 1259.10 low (see inset) recorded in June is worrisome, but the picture would become still moreso if a relapse in the days ahead takes the December contract beneath the 1242.70 low just to the left of it. That would increase the imputed power of the bearish impulse leg begun from September 22’s 1347.80 high. Strictly speaking, there has been no upward correction of that leg, and that’s why the 1242.70 low, although it doesn’t look like much, should be considered a dangerous threshold. Full Story
While it is becoming apparent that interest rates are going to have to rise possibly for all currencies on a one-year view, sterling’s problems are the consequence of bad judgement, and perhaps intellectual arrogance on the part of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. The MPC in turn is not and cannot be independent from the influence of Mark Carney, the Bank’s Governor, who made the expensive error of intervening in the Remain campaign. Full Story
Cutting directly to the chase, the correction in the gold and silver stocks and, more importantly for us, the miners (GDXJ) is rapidly coming to a close. Without embarking on a flight of verbosity and overstatement, here in a nutshell is why I see a bottom in the cards—and possibly a solid, tradeable bottom. Full Story
Very simply, the bulls have the ball, period. The bears want that ball and all they have to do is crack the big picture support parameters in order to make things not just bearish, but potentially extremely so, given that the recent breaks upward to blue sky in many indexes would then be painted as an epic final suck in on a bullish overthrow. Full Story
Back in the 90’s, when the EU had ceased to be a mere trade agreement and had become a full-blown oligarchy that would eventually gobble up most of western and eastern Europe, my belief was that it had not only been a doomed concept, it had additionally been rushed into being far too quickly. Although, at that time, the governments of Europe were gleefully joining up, I said, “I give it twenty years, tops.” Full Story
The nascent precious metals bull market remains intact, according to Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company. Although policymakers could hike rates to 0.75-1.00%, the affect will be minimal. The big economic wild card remains loose monetary policy, which includes negative interest rates, forcing investors to chase stock / bond market yield. Full Story
Share buybacks are nothing new; they have been around for decades, and in most cases, one would view this type of action under a favourable light. However, for the past few years, companies have used this technique as a ploy to hide stagnating earnings or even falling profits. The idea is very simple, and the rewards are lucrative as most corporate officers have incentive-based rewards. Full Story
I noted in my previous video that I didn’t like the upside potential for stocks. They were too stretched above the 200 DMA, and the COT was too bearish. It now looks like stocks may be starting an intermediate degree decline. There is risk this could drag oil down with it. So I don’t think I would want to be long energy at this time either. Full Story
The financial world has missed the biggest story of 2016. That story is the fact that the CURRENCY markets have stopped paying attention to Central Bank policy and are now deciding things for themselves. For those who are unfamiliar with the significance of the currency markets, a brief recap is in order. The currency markets are the largest, most liquid, and most “alert” markets on the planet. Full Story
By: Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith - 12 October, 2016
Though the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 battery problem is presently receiving a tremendous amount of media and public attention, what few appreciate is that it is only the tip of the iceberg of cracks in the global supply chained as a result of unintended consequences of central bank monetary policies. In this 35 minute video Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is. Full Story
The market resoundingly broke all those levels as we have been expecting, and dropped in the heart of a 3rd wave in the c-wave down this past week. And, when the market completes the heart of a 3rd wave in a c-wave down, it tells us that what remains in this correction are only 4th and 5th micro waves. That is what we view as a bottoming process, wherein the market develops the positive divergences we need to see at lower lows to set us up for the next rally phase. Full Story
We live in a world where the yield-starved and tech-savvy conspire in the basement of the underground and unaccounted. While the rise of Bitcoin and the explosion of alternative currencies may become the new scapegoat of behavioral finance, there is nothing quite like the reality of trickle down finance gone wrong. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 12 October, 2016
The old adage to “buy Rosh Hashanah, sell Yom Kippur” seems to be getting a nice play this year in any case, and we can only hope that it continues to hold true with a vengeance. For how else will the stock market and the economy ever return to sanity? The current mania is nothing that a 10,000-point plunge in the Dow wouldn’t cure, of course. But if that’s what we are seeing the beginning of, it’s going to take some time, and not just a little pain, before investors come to understand that $100 million homes, and $60 billion valuations for such as Uber, are not only not normal, but downright nutty. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 11 October, 2016
This article looks at factors that will affect gold and silver prices as we go forward. We have to say they are considerable and will lead to our conclusion that while the gold price has fallen through support below $1,300 and now stand at $1,250, we see the fundamentals taking the price back higher and much higher over time. Indeed we do see it rising through its all time peak in the next year and beyond. We will also highlight the fact that such a rise will occur in all currencies as they weaken against the gold price. Full Story
Yes, the lies have never been larger, broader, or more damaging – such as Well Fargo’s admission that it has been falsifying accounts for five years, as testified by CEO John Stumpf to Congress last week. That is, until we learned today that it’s been going on for at leat ten. Or that the global economy could possibly be “recovering” when essentially all Central banks are easing more aggressively than ever, with essentially all either at or near zero interest rates, and nearly all enjoying multi-year, and in many cases, multi-decade, currency values. Full Story
The ability to filter through hundreds of gold stocks, choosing those with the best relative value, among other things, is a skill that our portfolio management team at U.S. Global Investors has over 30 years of experience in. Our primary fiduciary responsibility as active managers is to sift, sort and prioritize these names in order to pinpoint the ones we believe can provide the best opportunities for our funds and to our shareholders. Full Story
You want to retire soon but you don’t trust debt based fiat currency paper assets. Besides, the stock market looks toppy and bonds have about run their 30+ year bull market to its inevitable and ugly end – as indicated by negative interest rates, QE, helicopter money, ZIRP, central bank insanity and more. Full Story
The world is undergoing a major economic transition from deflation to inflation. Sadly, very few retail investors are correctly positioned to benefit from this exciting change. In the big picture, the transition means that gold stocks will outperform gold bullion, and bonds will stagnate. Chinese and Indian stock markets could boom. Western stock markets could also get dragged higher, but investors there have a lot more risk than Chindia investors. Full Story
Gold, silver and mining stocks moved higher yesterday, but the size of the rally was not huge and it was another day during which the PM sector didn’t decline. The back and forth movement and decreased volatility appear to be temporary as this kind of performance is something that we’ve seen during both consolidations and bottoms. Which way will the precious metals sector go? Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 October, 2016
An editor and columnist for the Financial Times, Dan McCrum, writes today in commentary briefly excerpted below that the price of gold can never be explained by anything other than fashion because there is no relevant information about gold pricing. But if so, who is more at fault for that than the FT itself? For as far as GATA can determine, the newspaper has never put a critical question to any central bank about its surreptitious activity in the gold market and reported the results of such inquiry, though GATA often has provided the newspaper with extensive documentation of that activity... Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 11 October, 2016
The news that flows from the Mainstream media continues to delude Americans from understanding the reality and disaster that is heading our way. A perfect example of this took place last week when a small oil company announced a new huge oil discovery in Alaska. The headlines stated that Caelus Energy LLC found between 6-10 billion barrels of oil on the North Slope of Alaska. I imagine this new oil discovery did wonders in reviving the “hope” that the U.S. will still become energy independent. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 11 October, 2016
Anyone with rudimentary knowledge of good economic theory can explain why government price controls are a bad idea. It boils down to the fact that the optimum price is the price that naturally balances supply and demand, and to the related fact that forcing the price to be above or below the level at which supply and demand would naturally be in balance will lead to either a glut or a shortage. However, even though most people are capable of understanding why price controls are counter-productive, they still want them. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 11 October, 2016
Nervous shorts are providing just enough buying power to keep stocks buoyant for weeks on end even though there are few other bidders. Mr. Market need only bide his time until the next Fed announcement, when, no matter what is said, Wall Street’s best and brightest will reflexively construe it as reason to goose stocks to new all-time highs. Will the Masters of the Universe be able to sustain altitude until the Fed’s clown-in-chief, Janet Yellen, steps up to the microphone this Friday? Probably. Full Story
The good news, if any, is that flushing weak hands and reducing open interest will put markets in a better position to bottom and start a new leg higher. Of course, much will depend on what happens in the dollar and in interest rates. Our view remains unchanged. The Fed is going to find it difficult to normalize interest rates and eventually markets will figure that out. Stimulus addicted stock and real estate markets achieved their current highs based on the flood of cheap money. Full Story
There’s no other way to say it: Gold had a bad week. Last Tuesday alone, the yellow metal fell more than 3 percent, shuffling off $43, in its biggest one-day loss in three years. It broke below the psychologically important $1,300 mark and touched the 200-day moving average before rising again Friday. In the past, gold has surged in September and corrected in October leading up to Diwali, the Festival of Lights, in India. Consumers there are expected to take ample advantage of the gold discount’s timing, as it follows a strong monsoon season and comes just before Diwali and the wedding season, when gifts of gold are considered auspicious. The correction has been followed by a Christmas and Chinese New Year-driven rally. Full Story
The historic journey down the rabbit hole of human depravity deepened further this weekend – to the point that, for the first time in my life, I see evidence of the moral depths the leaders of Rome, Germany, and essentially all other crumbling empires sunk to in their final days. Never before have I witnessed such destruction of the masses – economically, politically, and otherwise; and never have the masses been so angry – at said “leaders,” and due to the alarmingly accelerating trend of scapegoating, “competing” masses the world round. Full Story
The party’s over for the neo-liberal deep state, more commonly referred to as the ‘status quo’, and we will all pay a heavy price in the aftermath. Because all the money printing in the world will no longer work. Sure, the printing presses will continue to spit out ever-increasing fiat currency digits in order to maintain the illusion for as long as they can, however as with all deceptions, the truth will be known in good time, and this time might come a lot sooner than just about anybody thinks. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 October, 2016
I’m tracking a position consisting of eight Oct 21 200 – 195 puts spreads with a credit basis of 0.37, as well as 12 naked Oct 21 200 puts purchased last week for 0.25. The entire position nets out to a debit of $4, which is as much as we can lose — the cost of an ice cream cone. The maximum potential gain would be $10,000 if SPY were to fall below 195 from a current 215 before the options expire in two weeks. This is a longshot bet, but the effective, 2500-to-1 odds we are getting were too tempting to pass up. Full Story
With a degree in geophysics and a number of fascinating summers in mining exploration, one winter in "the bush" quickly led Bob into the financial markets. This included experience on the trading desk and in the research department of a large investment dealer, which led to institutional stock and bond sales. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad - the international runaway bestseller that has held a top spot on the New York Times bestsellers list for over six years - is an investor, entrepreneur and educator whose perspectives on money and investing fly in the face of conventional wisdom. Full Story
Last week saw a shocking plunge by gold and silver. While this is being classed in many quarters as part of a corrective phase in force since last July, and possibly the last part, the ferocity of this decline may have deeper implications, which is what we are going to look at here. The sharp break lower by gold may be telegraphing a strong advance by the dollar, and last week, as gold plunged early in the week and continued lower later in the week, the dollar pressed higher and broke above nearby resistance, which might be a prelude to an upside breakout from the 18-month long trading range in the dollar. Full Story
The Federal Open Market Committee, to almost no one’s surprise, did absolutely nothing at its last meeting other than say that maybe, if the data allow, they will raise rates in December. My cynical view on their dithering will be detailed below. And of course, the Bank of Japan met and decided that maybe they had gone a bridge too far; and rather than lowering already negative rates when the yield curve was flat out to 40 years, they decided to see if they could create a fulcrum around the 10-year Japanese bond at zero. So far, the move has not been a rousing success. Full Story
Human nature is nothing if not consistent. I’ve seen this dozens of times. At every single intermediate cycle low traders begin to doubt. No matter how strong the bull signals are, when a correction occurs traders find, or make up reasons for why the bear market is still in force or a new bear market is starting. Full Story
The gold price traded a few dollars either side of unchanged until the COMEX open in New York yesterday morning. There was a bit of a pop on the job numbers, but that was over and done with by 9:01 a.m. EDT. It headed lower from there — and ‘da boyz’ set a new low tick for this move down around 11:30 a.m. in New York. Then, for the most part, it rallied quietly from there into the 5:00 p.m. close of the thinly-traded afters hours market. Full Story
This year’s recovery in precious metals prices – and the sudden spike in gold/silver mining stocks – convinced a lot of people that a new bull market had begun. Last week’s brutal smack-down scared the hell out of many of the same folks. The latest commitment of traders (COT) report implies that we should all relax. Things are playing out pretty much according to a script that’s been in place for decades — and which points to happy times by early next year. Full Story
This will be a bit different of a piece because we are not reporting on something that has already happened; we’re dealing with something that is ongoing and developing. Graham will handle roughly the first half of the article, then Andy will handle the second. Please bear with us as we try to break this editorial into two distinct pieces. You’ll understand as you read it why we chose to handle this in such a fashion. Full Story
The US Dollar has been crawling along its rising 110 weekly moving average. This is not a bullish pattern and suggests a fall down to the US Dollar’s next lower support zone. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 October, 2016
Investors need to realize the precious metals paper price smash this week is meaningless when we consider the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. and Global Financial System continue to disintegrate. Financial Industry expert, Vic Patane and I discussed why the current precious metals selloff is a nothing more than a mere distraction from the ongoing systemic financial disaster taking place at Deutsche Bank. Full Story
Towards the end of a credit bubble, ideas that might have seemed crazy in more boring times are not just accepted but embraced by investors desperate to keep the high that comes from effortless bull-market profits. In the junk bond bubble of the late 1980s, for instance, there was the “PIK preferred,” a kind of stock/bond hybrid that paid its holders in more securities (PIK stood for “payment in kind”). Companies could issue them with zero near-term cash flow consequence while credulous investors bought them for their “high yields.” Full Story
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