There is a very good chance that there will be a recession within the next 1-2 years, and this could even occur within the next few months.
As explored in this analysis, if there is a recession, the means by which that recession will be contained and exited will necessarily be an unprecedented experiment. This means that there is an unusually high risk that it will not be a normal recession - which could knock the foundations out from underneath many conventional retirement investment strategies that blithely make the assumption that we can somehow know in advance that a "normal" mild and short recession is the downside scenario. Full Story
Which Hard Assets Hold Up Best During Tough Times? Diversifying out of conventional financial assets is an obvious and necessary step. Hard assets can offer protection both from economic turmoil and inflation.
However, not all hard assets are created equal.
Some tend to correlate strongly with the business cycle and may therefore perform poorly during a recession. Others are more counter-cyclical and can benefit from a bad economy accompanied by safe-haven flight out of the stock market. Full Story
I cannot profess to tell others how to effectively manage their accounts because I am a lowly participant who is learning all the time. The truth is that 2019’s learning is much different than 2018’s learning was, which was different than 2016, 2011, 2008/2009 and other pivotal market phases. So I’d say that the biggest lesson to learn has been the concept of marrying adaptability with discipline.
Cookie cutter advisors and brokers have it easier. They’re the majority of market professionals and they’ve learned and set in stone the way of allocating into markets; 60/40 stocks to bonds or some such variant. But for something more effective than ‘cookie cutter’, you need to keep learning, adapting and holding discipline as long as your signals remain valid. Full Story
The “perfect storm” is forming that will push gold to record highs in U.S. dollars. In 2008 a near-perfect storm hit the global financial system that drove the price of gold to record level in just about every currency including dollars. The only missing ingredient back then was negative interest rates. The same financial excesses that caused the previous financial crisis have reformed only now they are much larger in scale. Most of the western hemisphere has already implemented negative interest rates. Now Trump has opened that Pandora’s Box in the U.S.
This business about JPMorgan buying up more physical silver (and gold) than ever seen in history is not known to most people. JPMorgan has been buying massive amounts of physical silver for eight years now. As the kingpin of the silver and gold markets, JPMorgan is now positioned to make an absolute fortune on higher prices. Your readers should do the same thing that JPMorgan is doing. They would also have a chance to make a fortune. Full Story
Two weeks ago a former Federal Reserve board member and bank president, William Dudley, wrote an editorial that encouraged the Fed use its powers to defeat Donald Trump’s second bid for the US presidency. I don’t recall choosing presidents as being listed in the Fed’s two mandates — controlling inflation while maximizing employment.
For an organization that has been speaking a lot lately about the importance of its independence from politics, that was the most overtly political statement I’ve heard from a central banker, albeit a former central banker, but one with a lot of influence. Full Story
By: Michael Kosares, USA Gold - 11 September, 2019
That about sums it up. The dollar at the moment is something of a Humpty Dumpty in the global monetary system – sitting on his wall oblivious and seemingly immune to all that goes on around him. Whether or not there will someday be a Great Fall remains to be seen, but increasingly, as Carney’s speech illustrates, forces are lining up against it.
Debt, deficits, leverage, “out-of-control” spending, bond monetization, excessive credit growth, stock buybacks, and lies will hurt the economy and many individuals.
Market bubbles, such as the current “everything bubble,” always correct, sometimes violently. The stock market correction/crash may have begun, or perhaps the powers-that-be can delay it until after the 2020 election.
Credible arguments by Larry Kotlikoff suggest that economic and banking systems encourage recessions, corrections, and crashes. Wall Street and governments thrive, while others pay the price. Another recession and/or crash is coming.
When central bank interventions establish prices instead of functioning markets, some assets are over-priced while others are underpriced. Full Story
U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, is continuing his efforts to get answers from the U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission about surreptitious interventions by the U.S. government in the financial and commodity markets and particularly the gold and silver markets. Full Story
Despite the rather horrid setbacks in the precious metals -- and their associated equities these last few days, the fact that Alan Greenspan, still a gold standard-bearer on the inside, would come out and say what he did on Friday, is the final straw in the wind that makes me content with my "all in" position in the precious metals.
And in the face of what's coming down the pipe in the next six months, it's a certainty that the price management scheme that currently exists in the all four precious metals will come to an abrupt end sometime in the next six months.
Ted is of the opinion -- and I'm certainly not disagreeing with him this time, that this engineered price decline will be the last one before we blast higher, so I'm more than prepared to bear the pain in the short term.
Because, as the ancient Persian adage goes..."This too, shall pass." Full Story
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