The United States has three requirements in returning to the Gold Standard. They will be extremely difficult to achieve. They each serve as essential requirements in a criterion. All three are urgently needed. The challenge is formidable for the nation to remain as a leading player in the global economy. The United States stands alone in volume of national debt. Many place the blame on the social net like welfare, Social Security, and other measures. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Keith Weiner, CEO and Founder of Monetary Metals, and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. Keith is a hard money advocate who has been an outspoken proponent for the gold standard and restoring sound money to our nation's monetary system. Keith has a PhD from the New Austrian School of Economics, and his articles have appeared in numerous publications on Internet sites throughout the globe, and it's a real pleasure to have him on with us today. Full Story
The correlation between Gold and the USD/CNY exchange rate has become clear recently. I first cited the idea of Gold being pegged in yuan terms in February, based on the increasingly narrow range in the Gold/yuan (or “XAU/CNY”) exchange rate. I emphasized this, given what it means for Gold in that USD/CNY becomes a primary driver of the price of Gold in dollars. Now it’s mainstream, thanks to the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, and China’s response in devaluing the yuan by ~8% in 3 months. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks have been drifting sideways to lower like usual in their summer doldrums. They are likely near their major seasonal lows ahead of a strong autumn rally, a great buying opportunity. Gold rebounding higher will be the primary driver fueling the gold-stock advance, dispelling today’s bearish psychology. And strong Q2 production growth will likely play a sizable role in restoring favorable sentiment. Full Story
China’s growth over the past decade has been not just impressive, but historically unprecedented. No single country has ever added this many factories, roads, airports and entire new cities in so short at time. Full Story
We are on the road to war with China. It may not be a military confrontation, although that is highly likely considering tensions in the South China Sea - but it is certainly economic. Will China back down, as Trump continues to pile on tariffs? Or is saving face more important than a dip in economic growth? In the end it will be American voters that decide whether beating China is worth higher prices of goods that have been cheap for decades. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years, outlines his technical perspective on the global financial markets. US shares could continue to decline along with global equities where shares in the Shanghai exchange dropped 21% from the peak. Market volatility may explode next month - June 6th - 14th could be a difficult time in markets. Full Story
While there are a lot of negative factors out there that could be used to paint a very bearish picture, market sentiment and price action are not supportive of a stock market crash outlook. However, as the market has experienced a huge run, this current rout should be embraced for the market is letting out a well-deserved dose of steam. Experts have you believe that Bull Markets only trend upwards, but that’s an assertion that’s on par with rubbish. Nothing trends upwards in a straight line and even the strongest bull has to take a breather. Full Story
I have something that I think is of paramount importance, and it’s a gentleman I met at the Red Pill Expo just a few weeks ago. Kent had something that he passed out on most of the desks around. I picked it up and when I got home, I read it. The title is called “The Decentralized Cryptocurrency Nightmare”. That intrigued me because I was a pretty early adopter, and I did not jump on the Bitcoin bandwagon, even though I was one of the first to know about it, believe it or not. Full Story
Best selling author, Dr. Stephen Leeb returns with a solid outlook on the gold sector. The precious metals could merge with the blockchain to facilitate sound money transactions at an accelerated pace and with far greater transparency. With light sweet crude oil breaking multi-year records, the threat of inflation could further encourage the gold bulls. Dr. Leeb suggests investors view gold in terms of China's Yuan ($GOLD:CYB) to better gauge the true technical strength of the yellow metal. Full Story
It has been a tough spring and summer for precious metals. Gold failed to breakout when it had the chance and it closed the second quarter in ominous and weak fashion. It was the lowest monthly close in more than a year. Silver has performed better but only because it has not declined to the degree Gold has. The one technical positive for the sector is the positive divergence in the miners. They did not make new lows in the second quarter. That is encouraging but only time will tell us how sustainable and significant that might be. Full Story
Arguably the best known and most coveted trophy in the history of sport, the World Cup Trophy has a mythical status among elite footballers and sports fans alike, and its iconic shape and form are synonymous with the World Cup football tournament that takes place every four years. For such a legendary trophy, it goes without saying that it could not have been made out of anything except gold. Full Story
The U.S. central bank should welcome the recent employment report, which is positive overall. Job creation remained strong. Unemployment rose, but it was because of more people entering the labor force. The average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents to $26.98, which implies that they have increased 2.7 percent over the year. Although it’s the same percent change as in May and it missed the expectations of economists, wages are rising gradually. Hence, the U.S. labor market tightened further. It should not radically alter the Fed’s stance, but it should justify and cement the current hawkish approach. It means another interest rate hike in September. Full Story
The sale was for $11 million dollars ($3 million in gold with the balance financed with bonds). The Louisiana territory consisted of 530,000,000 acres of land which worked out to a little over 2 cents per acre. The modern equivalent would be about 57 cents per acre. Stay out of debt, stay liquid and keep some gold on hand. You never know when you may stumble onto the deal of this century. Full Story
Today, we have a very special guest joining us to discuss the natural resource space and your portfolio, the legendary investor, philosopher, bestselling author and serially successful Doug Casey. A number of speculators are confused and frustrated with the current state of the natural resource space. I hear comments that it just seems to be dragging along. In my experience, strong hands love the current value propositions and the weak hands fold. Full Story
Today’s Wall Street Journal contains a couple of charts that illustrate a relationship that’s not getting much media attention these days: The fact that tightening labor markets are forcing companies to raise wages, in the process squeezing their own profit margins. Historically this margin compression has been either a cause of or contributor to cyclical turning points — in other words it coincides with recessions and equity bear markets. Full Story
Is the U.S. Government hiding a massive gold deposit in the Chocolate Mountains in California? Well, according to a few top-notch conspiracy theorists, the U.S. Congress passed the Desert Wilderness Protection Act that has cordoned off this vast gold discovery from the public. Unfortunately, we may never know if this mammoth gold deposit exists due to the clandestine nature of our government… or will we? Full Story
August futures set up such an appealing buying opportunity for bulls Monday that several subscribers jumped on it when a timely ‘mechanical’ entry strategy was posted in the chat room. Alas, anyone who got long toward the end of the day watched the trade sink precipitously overnight, stopping out the position for a loss of around $600 per contract. As a rule, when a juicy Hidden Pivot trade set-up flops so miserably, it can pay to quickly reverse the position and do the opposite. In this case, however, going short seems no more appealing than going long, since bullion has been treating bears almost as badly as bulls. Full Story
In yesterday’s analysis, we discussed how meaningful gold and silver’s pre-market decline was given a relatively small move in the USD Index. The implications were quite bearish for the PM market, especially that we had just seen a target being reached in gold stocks. And because mining stocks had just underperformed gold for the first time in weeks. Yet, before the day was over, the USD, gold and silver had all reversed and erased most of their daily moves. Does it make the outlook bullish again? Is gold still likely to reach $1,300 shortly? Full Story
The gold price began to head quietly but unevenly higher as soon as trading began at 6:00 p.m. EDT in New York on Sunday evening. That rally lasted until shortly after 12:30 p.m. BST in London on their Monday afternoon -- and as soon as COMEX trading began, a dollar index 'rally' commenced almost at the same moment. Most of the sell-off was done by minutes after 1 p.m. EDT -- and although it gained a bit in early after-hours trading, it was sold down after that. Full Story
Now consider this. Since the PBOC began to actively devalue the yuan versus the dollar four weeks ago, the price of COMEX gold has tracked the yuan nearly tick-for tick. This is clearly shown on the chart below. We've taken the USDCNY and inverted it to CNYUSD. This is shown in candlesticks. The price of the Aug18 COMEX gold is represented as a blue line. Full Story
The economy is melting down – the only support for the Propaganda Narrative of a “booming economy” is a rising stock market. Without a doubt Trump has ordered the Working Group on Financial Markets – AKA “the Plunge Protection Team” – to push stocks higher for now so insiders can unload. Full Story
Sometimes details obscure the bigger picture. The following graphs do not show most of the details and “noise.” These log-scale graphs show one bar every four years (plus April 2018) based on official debt on July 1st, or the average of monthly closes every fourth year for M3, stock indices, houses and commodities. Full Story
GDX has staged a nice upside breakout from a bull wedge pattern and the expected pullback is now in play. Aggressive investors can buy call options on any dip back into the wedge pattern. Everyone else should be buyers of their favourite individual gold stocks. A powerful upside rally to the $24.86 area highs for GDX appears imminent, with that price zone being only a pitstop on the road to much higher prices! Full Story
Lots of bullion investors wonder if the metal they hold might one day be needed for barter and trade. They bought gold and silver, at least in part, as a form of insurance. It just might come in handy in an extreme circumstance such as a currency crisis of the sort Venezuelans are grappling with right now. Full Story
As I’ve noted in the past, the Commitments of Traders (COT) information is nothing other than a sentiment indicator. Moreover, for some markets, including gold, silver, copper, the major currencies and Treasury bonds, the COT reports are by far the best indicators of sentiment. This is because they reflect how the broad category known as speculators is betting. Full Story
What are the take-home messages from the recent FOMC minutes? Well, its stance has been turning more and more hawkish. This is definitely not a good development for gold. The case is, however, not lost. The real interest rates have been recently declining, while the credit risk has risen somewhat. Our view is that unless the ECB starts to remove its monetary accommodation more decisively, the medium-term outlook for gold will remain rather bearish. Full Story
How much gold did the two largest mining countries produce in history? Well, let’s just say that precious metals investors would be quite surprised to learn that the total cumulative gold production from the two leading countries is well over two billion ounces. That is one heck of a lot of gold once we consider that only six billion oz of gold has been mined in recorded history. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on mixed signals. The cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Last week I had the privilege of meeting a young tech superstar in Palo Alto, California—Gabe Leydon, cofounder and now-former CEO of mobile game producer MZ. Previously known as Machine Zone, the Sunnyvale-based company is responsible for developing some of the highest-grossing mobile games of all time, including Game of War: Fire Age and Mobile Strike, both of which profited from high-dollar marketing campaigns worthy of some Hollywood films. You might have seen Game of War’s Super Bowl commercial featuring swimsuit model Kate Upton, or Mobile Strike’s, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. Full Story
The 2018 Sound Money Index is the first index of its kind, ranking all 50 states using 9 indicators to determine which states have implemented the most pro-sound money policies in the country. Federal policy and the privately owned Federal Reserve System are the root causes of inflation, instability, and currency devaluation, noted Jp Cortez, Policy Director at the Sound Money Defense League. However, he noted, states can take some steps to protect their citizens from the ill effects of America’s unbacked paper money system. Full Story
These warnings did exist and they can be seen in the gold areas of the graph above. They are called "yield curve inversions", and are quite uncommon, having occurred only three times in the last 35 years. The red areas show the three recessions of the last 35 years - and as can be readily seen, each yield curve inversion has been relatively quickly followed by a recession. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was gold, up 0.14 percent. St Barbara produced a record-breaking 403,089 ounces, up 6 percent from the 2017 fiscal year, according to Bloomberg. This is the first time the company has exceeded 400,000 ounces in a year. Mining in higher grade zones of the South West Brank resulted in an average grade of 13.2 grams per ton of gold. At June 30, the total cash at bank and term deposits was A$344 million, up from A$262 million on March 31. Full Story
So, with the US stock market rallying 1% on a day when we experienced a serious escalation of a worldwide trade war, I have presented to you an intellectually honest article title above (smile). At some point, I hope many of you discard your simplistic perspectives about the market, no matter how well wrapped they may be in colorful articles and well “reasoned” opinions. To put it simply, you must begin to understand that markets are driven by mass sentiment, and not by perceived exogenous events. Full Story
We have often looked at cycles. We have learned a lot about cycles by reading experts in the fields such as Ray Merriman, Martin Armstrong, and Elliott Wave International. But even they were not the originators of the study of cycles. We have also read Samuel Benner (1832–1913), Charles H. Dow (1851–1902), R.N. Elliott (1871–1948), Nicolas Kondratieff (1892–1938), Edward Dewey (1895–1978), and, more recently, David McMinn (9/56 Year Cycle: Financial Crises) and Chris Carolan (The Spiral Calendar). There are many others as well, considered experts in their field. We are but mere followers. Full Story
Why is it like this? Debt, of course. The more we borrow, the bigger the resulting financial bubbles and the deeper the subsequent downturns. And the longer each recovery has to run before wages start to rise. So the rich enjoy decade-long increases in the value of their London penthouses and Google stock while their workers get a couple of decent years at best before things fall apart. Full Story
Since I covered gold and silver on Wednesday, I am switching to the base metals because they represent a dollar flow infinitely larger than the precious metals, and are therefore far more difficult to "manage" in terms of price. Also, 90% of the pricing structure for a metal such as copper is dictated by the cash or spot market, where physical delivery governs pricing. Full Story
The first week of July was really about the upside following through based on the overall rounding bottoming pattern and temporary low setup at the 2693.25 low from the last week of June. The market was able to cement the status of temporary low from June, and had a decent "stick save" on Monday July 2 at the 2698.5 lows before closing at the high of the day around 2726 to cement another higher low. Full Story
Before it collapsed, the city of Rome had a population greater than 1,000,000 people. That was an extraordinary accomplishment in the ancient world, made possible by many innovative technologies and the organization of the greatest civilization that the world had ever seen. Such an incredible urban population depended on capital accumulated over centuries. But the Roman Empire squandered this capital, until it was no longer sufficient to sustain the city (we are aware the story is more complicated than this). Full Story
Peter Schiff, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) returns with his latest market insights. Inflation is a chief concern at EuroPac, just as the economy is headed back to a 2008 style Great Recession, which could result in Stagflation. Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with upbeat commentary on the PM's sector. The shifting yield curve (spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury Notes), suggests that a liquidity crisis could unfold similar to the Great Recession. Full Story
This week will be a shorter-than-usual letter. Between the holiday and a few other surprises that we’re preparing for readers (more on that soon), the next and final installment of the Train Wreck series just wasn’t ready for prime time. Next week, we will look at each part of the series and add up the total global debt. I can tell you, it’s a lot more than you can possibly imagine. Full Story
Historically this stage of the cycle is a point of no return. It doesn’t “moderate” because any further growth by definition means more demand for the inputs that are already in short supply. So from here wages and prices can only rise, which causes interest rates to follow suit until the latter slow the economy sufficiently to bring demand and supply back into balance. If the next recession is not yet visible, it’s definitely out there on the road we’re now traveling. Full Story
The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation. We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration of the Eurozone, with record imbalances and a significant member, Italy, digging in its heels. China’s stock market, we are told, is now officially in bear market territory. Will others follow? But there is one thing that’s so far been widely ignored and that’s inflation. Full Story
My Gold True Fundamentals Model (GTFM) turned bearish in mid-January 2018 and was still bearish at the end of the week before last (22nd June). There were fluctuations along the way, but at no time between mid-January and late-June was the fundamental backdrop supportive of the gold price. However, at the end of last week (29th June) the GTFM turned bullish. The deciding factor was a small, but significant, widening of credit spreads. Full Story
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