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Weekly Archive
By: Puru Saxena - 13 July, 2007
We are witnessing a generational bull-market in all types of natural resources (energy, food and metals). This boom in commodities is largely due to supply and demand imbalances plus the ongoing monetary inflation which is adding fuel to the fire. Full Story |
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 13 July, 2007
-Temporary seclusion from financial news…doing what empires do…getting away with excess…
-The odd and confusing X-ray shoe machine…lackluster terrorists…airport security surprise…
-A shortage of British Brits…the allure of expanding cities…united by fear…and more! Full Story |
By: Douglas V. Gnazzo - 13 July, 2007
The past year has been long and hard on gold stock investors. Our patience and resolve have been repeatedly put to the test. It took courage to hold one’s ground when others were turning in the other direction, but nothing worth having is ever easy – it was never meant to be. It appears that now the trial may almost be over, and to the brave of heart will go the victory. Full Story |
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 13 July, 2007
Investment and speculation are ultimately the world’s greatest probabilities games. Traders exist in a realm of constant uncertainty, where capital must be deployed today well before the unknown future arrives. To increase the odds of success for any trade, traders should only deploy when probabilities swing way into their favor. Full Story |
By: Adrian Ash - 13 July, 2007
BEN BERNANKE has his helicopter. John Maynard Keynes had old bottles buried in coal mines. And the Japanese government? How can Tokyo dish out free money and put an end to deflation, that horror of falling prices and wages? Full Story |
By: Deepcaster - 13 July, 2007
Many see hedging merely as a way to provide a portfolio with some modicum of downside protection from a major sell-off. But there are flaws with regarding hedging as merely a way to protect against loss. If an investor views hedging as merely a way to dampen market sell-offs, then, typically, “dampening” is all the “protection” one will get. With merely a “dampening” one may nonetheless experience substantial losses. Full Story |
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 13 July, 2007
This week, bond rating agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s finally announced downgrades on billions of dollars of bonds backed by subprime mortgages. Though the cuts will certainly not reflect the full weakness of the bonds, and will not include nearly as many issues as they should, they nevertheless amount to the beginning of the end of the phony mortgage investment market and the unrealistically high home prices that it helped support. Full Story |
By: silberinfo - 13 July, 2007
silberinfo:
Why is an investment in gold and gold stocks a good idea right now?
Graham Birch:
Gold and gold shares are in a gently rising trend. However from time to time it enters into a consolidation (as is the case now). These are good times to pay attention. Full Story |
By: Michael Nystrom, MBA - 13 July, 2007
Back in 2001, when I started the website depression2.tv, I was convinced that we were headed for a repeat of 1929, and a second great depression. By the way things look now, I was either completely wrong or just half a decade early. But in Y2.001K, after the dot.com implosion and terrorist attacks, the economy looked to be on shaky ground, and prospects for growth appeared grim indeed. The end was nigh, or so I thought. Full Story |
By: Michael Kilbach - 13 July, 2007
In 2006 silver and gold had a major advance followed by significant correction. In our opinion this healthy correction appears to be following a normal pattern. We are currently in late spring heading into summer, the months where the metals price seems to regularly soften. We are predictably hearing bearish commentary and news about how poorly silver and gold have been performing and why it may drastically fall. In our opinion all of these market observations are normal, healthy and bullish for the price of silver and gold. Full Story |
By: Ira Epstein - 13 July, 2007
In the past week there has been a shift. The gold story starts and centers on the US Dollar. Simply put, it appears that the Dollar is being allowed to drop in a controlled manner. Numerous foreign central banks are once again raising their interest rates, while our central bank stands pat. The effect of this combined with slow but stable US growth in terms of GDP, is a falling Dollar. Today’s break in the Dollar matches the low made in December 2004. The next downside target, the all important low of 78.43 was made in September 1992. That is where I believe the Dollar is headed. Full Story |
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 July, 2007
Talk about irrational exuberance! If yesterday’s seismic eruption of giddiness on Wall Street had happened in, say, Kabul, we’d have seen Taliban revelers launching bottle rockets from the rooftops and dancing horas in the streets. We searched in vain for an explanation but found only a depressing report on June U.S. retail sales. We somehow doubt that the 2.7% drop reported by Macy’s could have stirred up investors so and caused the Dow Industrials to surge to their biggest gain in years. Full Story |
By: Greg Guenthner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 12 July, 2007
-Losing sight of your means…how to never meet your mortgage lender…resisting temptation…
-Easy mortgage credit is like catnip…the only successful government initiative we can recall…
-Taking money too seriously…Americans and the famous Anglo-Saxon irony…and more! Full Story |
By: Jim Willie CB - 12 July, 2007
The canary in the monetary mine continues to be crude oil, now over $73 with its brother Brent over $76. The Petro-Dollar defacto standard might be the first victim in this unfolding mess. If the USDollar is soon to suffer a crushing blow, the financial meter in gold and the commercial meter in crude oil would reflect it. Full Story |
By: Clive Maund - 12 July, 2007
There are several factors coming together now to suggest that a powerful rally in gold is drawing near, and because they are so clear and potent, they do not require a long-winded description. Full Story |
By: Clive Maund - 12 July, 2007
The technical situation for silver closely parallels that for gold and therefore most of the arguments set out in the Gold Market update are applicable to silver. In this update we will therefore confine ourselves to highlighting the important points of difference between the two metals. One important development over the past week or so for silver has been the improvement in its COT structure that has at last given a major buy signal. Full Story |
By: Brady Willett and Todd Alway - 12 July, 2007
With starkly differing business focuses – not to mention companies like Toll trying to play a new geographical card in ‘China’* - obviously the above calculations assume a lot. These limitations notwithstanding, in order to surmise that any homebuilder represents a ‘bargain’ - or a below book value long-term investment opportunity – you must conclude that asset write-downs will not be more than 20% and sales/losses will stabilize by summer 2008. Unfortunately such a conclusion is not one we are willing to make. Full Story |
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 12 July, 2007
The whole freaking world could turn to 100% biofuels tomorrow, and demand for food could keep rising…while the supply of food could actually go down, but that does NOT mean that prices MUST be higher for you personally. Full Story |
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 12 July, 2007
Speaking as a gold bug with a gimlet eye, it may be a good time to ratchet down our expectations, seeing the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. Let’s start with the XAU chart below, which I recently trotted out in support of a 5.5% rally forecast. When you look at the chart, do you see a bullish impulse leg that has rocketed past no fewer than four prior “external” peaks? Hard to miss it, for sure. It’s what I saw a few days ago when I predicted even bigger and better things ahead. But there is another Hidden Pivot interpretation of this chart – one that should smack the eye of the Gloomy Gus who dwells in the heart of each and every gold bug. Full Story |
By: Louis Paquette - 11 July, 2007
It doesn’t pay to be bearish because the vast majority of the time, the market is moving up. It’s not good to cry wolf too often. Who’s to say after all, that the current market turbulence isn’t just like all the other half dozen or so minor pull backs over the past few years, only to lead to new highs within a few months? There comes a time however when the warning signs start out numbering the factors that have been driving stocks higher - when there is such a confluence of bearish signs, they can’t be ignored. Full Story |
By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 11 July, 2007
-No escape for the free-falling dollar…translating Bernanke's inflation fears…
-Risking currencies to avoid a slump…Japan and the U.S. are only similar in one way…
-Long wait for a housing market comeback…buying oil while it's still in the ground…and more! Full Story |
By: Jim Otis - 11 July, 2007
Hey! Its great to be back among friends. I’ve been doing other things for a few months, but now seems like a great time to talk about silver again. If history rhymes for the rest of this year, the Silver Sidestep looks like a fantastic opportunity! Full Story |
By: Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS - 11 July, 2007
Good news just keeps rolling in. Aircraft carrier Enterprise off on summer cruise to Middle East. Horton has collapsing home sales. S&P and Moody's analysts awake from naps to reconsider ratings on some CDOs. Ten year rate of inflation in U.S. at highest level since 2002. Oil prices moving up. Radical Islamic groups in effort to take control of Pakistan, and its nukes. Israeli general warns time may be running out on halting Iranian nuclear weapon program. Euro climbs atop dollar while British pound at 25+ year high against dollar. Why would anyone want to own Gold in such an environment? Full Story |
By: Dudley Pierce Baker - 11 July, 2007
Is there any doubt that we are in the mist of a bull market in the commodities sector, especially for natural resources? The expert analysts we follow believe this bull market will last another 15 to 20 years. The purpose of this article is not to convince you of the existence of the bull market but rather to discuss the different investment strategies that investors can use to accomplish their objectives. Full Story |
By: Theodore Butler - 11 July, 2007
The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT), for positions held as of July 3, contained some surprisingly bullish data for silver. The report indicated another sharp reduction in the total net commercial short position, by almost 6000 contracts, to the smallest net short position (42,000 futures contracts) in nine months. While the total net short commercial position in gold widened a bit, we are still at a very low level of commercial net shorts in gold, indicating that both silver and gold are structured to move higher. Perhaps sharply higher. Full Story |
By: Mark Skousen & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 10 July, 2007
-Creating money out of thin air…real wealth growing at breakneck speed…
-The phony parts of the asset boom…a sub par scam in the subprime market…
-Too many phony trends to reckon with…hedge funds set the stage for farce…and more! Full Story |
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 10 July, 2007
Over the last few years a lot of reports have described how China’s gold markets have been opening up. We have commented in the Gold Forecaster that the changes have been superficial at best, but have laid the groundwork for the eventual opening of the gold market there. Full Story |
By: Louis Paquette - 10 July, 2007
The April highs around $690 are looking more and more like the seasonal high, so our task now is to anticipate the lows. The charts are pointing for a low to come in at anywhere from $640 to $600. The 200-day moving average is around $640. It may need to dip down below the 200-dma for a spell as it has in previous years. But this shows it is getting close now. I thought it might be useful to check the COT data to help pinpoint the low and I discovered an unusual coincidence that’s happening again now! Full Story |
By: Doug Casey & Marin Katusa - 10 July, 2007
The current uranium bull market has seen it all: land rushes, promises of immense wealth, millions of dollars poured into drill programs, and a uranium spot price that has galvanized the investment community by smashing through $130/pound. But amid the brouhaha, one thing has remained elusive: a major uranium discovery. Everywhere from Australia to Zambia, exploration results have been largely underwhelming. Full Story |
By: Adrian Ash - 10 July, 2007
Get cash at any price. It's just not as cheap anymore – and it might be about to become yet more expensive. A friend with less money than gold was last week offered a 90-day deposit paying 8% per annum. US private-equity giant KKR now says it wants to float on the stock market after failing to raise leveraged finance in the bond market. The perceived risk of holding European corporate debt is shooting higher, according to the cost of buying credit default swaps. Full Story |
By: Alf Field - 10 July, 2007
In Gold market we finally have “Ignition” and “Lift-off”. Events over the past three weeks have created a situation where an upside price catapult of at least $100 per ounce, without a significant correction, can be anticipated. Full Story |
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 10 July, 2007
We are sceptical about the "commodity super cycle" theory that has become widely accepted over the past couple of years. Or, to put it more aptly, we have been long-term bullish on commodities since 2001-2002 and remain so to this day, but we are sceptical about the explanations generally bandied about for the secular upward trend in commodity prices. In particular, we do not believe that the rapid growth of China and India is the primary driving force behind the long-term bull market in commodities. Full Story |
By: Captain Hook - 10 July, 2007
Have we finally arrived – arrived at the point where we can say the perfect storm is unfolding before our very eyes? I don’t know about you, but in my eyes it appears this may very well prove the case. Certainly one of the more important factors in this regard has got to be the inevitable war with Iran military forces appear to be preparing for that could send oil prices substantially higher. Full Story |
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 10 July, 2007
You know I am tired with such a preoccupied absorption of the gold price. Now I don’t want to be a hypocrite here because I know I myself often get excited watching gold move higher. That is our natural human reaction to be excited about something climbing, whether it’s a possum or a squirrel climbing high into an oak tree. But it is also natural to have a desire for truth and come to an understanding of what matters most when we are talking about making money. Full Story |
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 July, 2007
In the event, the August futures traded as high yesterday as 666.00, at which point they were up more than $11. They also slightly exceeded the mentioned “two key highs” implying that still-higher prices are likely. We can offer no precise target at the moment, but it seems clear that there is significant, further upside potential. Full Story |
By: The Mogambo Guru & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 9 July, 2007
-The jaw-dropping sight of excessive money…lust for green paper causes delirium…
- The noise of the boom heard around the world…an art gallery of currencies…
-Mainstream media joins in the "hedge fund bashing"…the arrival of the Tour de France…and more! Full Story |
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 9 July, 2007
As the Japanese government continues holding short-term interest rates near zero while printing yen like it is going out of style, getting out of the yen has now replaced pachinko as the national pastime for rank and file Japanese. With housewives and cab drivers debating the best techniques to exchange their yen savings for higher yielding non-yen assets, the Japanese monetary authorities are facing the prospect of the complete destruction of their own currency, subjecting their citizens to the horrors of hyperinflation. Full Story |
By: Gary Tanashian - 9 July, 2007
Have fun putting all of the above into a blender along with all the other analysis out there. These are certainly interesting times and frankly, I have rarely enjoyed market watching and participation more than now. As slavishly noted over and over again, our accounts are in defensive mode although I hold no shorts on anything. One potential oncoming no-brainer short is the Chinese stock market. But it has not yet blown off to target. The prospect is exciting however and I look forward to putting a chart up at some point that shows why. Full Story |
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 9 July, 2007
Many would simply characterise inflation as a very evil force; hardly would think of quoting it as good and almost no one would think of calling it great. However let’s stop here for a second and just examine the above statement. In a round about manner is that not reflective of the way most individuals think when they enter the markets; almost all of them think they will win; very few think they will lose some money and even less think that they could potentially lose it all. Full Story |
By: Douglas V. Gnazzo - 9 July, 2007
Stock markets are still floating on a sea of paper fiat liquidity. Except for the precious metals, energy, and commodity stocks – I care not to indulge. I remain skeptical and cautious of asset bubbles and crack up booms. After every crack up boom comes a crack down bust, as surely as night divides the day. Full Story |
By: radio.goldseek.com - 8 July, 2007
This Weeks Guests & Highlights:
Kevin Kerr from Outstanding Investments.
Gold mining company roundtable. (YouTube)
3 Spotlight Picks with big dividends! Full Story |
By: Clive Roffey - 8 July, 2007
Gold has to make up its mind. Ten years ago it was condemned as just another commodity. More recently it has regained a certain monetary status as its long term trend has out performed all the leading global currencies. At this point of time the New York traders are equating gold as a proxy for dollar strength or weakness. Full Story |
By: Mike Hewitt - 8 July, 2007
Commodity bull markets can often experience a speculative peak followed by a dramatic collapse in price. These sharp peaks are sometimes associated with an attempt to corner the commodity by either a single large entity or collusion of smaller participants. With the exception of DeBeer’s which has allegedly been successful at manipulating the diamond market for decades, these activities often end in financial disaster when the aim of the manipulator becomes widely known. They may find themselves becoming the only buyer in order to keep the price high and prevent a catastrophic collapse. Full Story |
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 8 July, 2007
Late payments on home equity loans have climbed to a 1-1/2 year high in the first quarter, while delinquencies on credit card bills fell. Those late payments on house equity loans rose to 2.15%, up sharply from 1.92% yoy. A composite of other types of consumer loans, including autos and boats, home improvement and for certain home equity loans, increased to 2.42% from the fourth quarter’s 2.23%. Full Story |
By: Jack Chan - 8 July, 2007
If the current breakout is legit like the previous three breakouts, we are at the beginning of an impulsive phase. What is special about this breakout, is that it occurs after over a year long of consolidation. The whipsaws during this zigzag correction have been the most challenging relative to all previous corrections, and have likely sidelined many traders, and caused many to be skeptical. That is exactly what a bull market needs. Our trading plans call for incremental buying while keeping risk manageable. Full Story |
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors - 8 July, 2007
This week we continue to look at an alphabet soup of problems: RMBSs, CDOs, Alt-A, BBB and - a new acronym to put on your radar screen - the very useful CDS. When does an AAA rating not mean an offering is ready for prime time? What type of contagion are we seeing from the Bear Stearns blow-up? I survey my friends in the hedge funds space, trying to find some evidence of cracks in the foundation, and let you know what I hear. We will again look at a wide variety of items and see if we can discern some connections. Full Story |
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 8 July, 2007
Searching billions of web pages, we were unable to find even a single stock chart showing the spectacular ascent of RCA prior to the 1929 Crash. Our hunch, however, is that the final, manic leap of “Radio,” as it was popularly known, would bear a striking resemblance to the world-beating parabola shown in the Apple Inc. chart immediately below. Full Story |
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