By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 13 May, 2016
The gold miners’ stocks have skyrocketed this year as investors started returning to this long-abandoned sector. Many have doubled since January, with plenty tripling or even quadrupling. Naturally such fast gains raise concerns about whether they are actually fundamentally justified or merely the product of fleeting sentiment that could reverse. Gold miners’ latest quarterly results offer great fundamental insights. Full Story
I could write a long, detailed post trying to encompass global stock markets (generally bearish), commodities (bounce very mature) and bonds (mixed views, depending upon the flavor) but that is what I get paid to do each weekend in NFTRH reports and in private posts at the site. The beauty of public posts is that I can write as much or as little as I feel like writing. Today I feel like writing a little about gold (and silver) and the stock market. I also feel like using daily charts because I think time frames are pinching in for upcoming pivotal moves. Full Story
While the WGC collects its figures assiduously, the demand figures are only those that are known from trade associations, central banks, and ETFs. Drilling down into the figures, according to the WGC, Chinese demand for the quarter totalled 241.3 tonnes, whereas according to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, it delivered 516 tonnes to the public from its vaults. The substantial difference cannot be satisfactorily identified as far as the WGC is concerned, but this illustrates the difficulties in tracking down accurate figures. Full Story
The fate of oil companies and nations hangs in the balance of oil prices. Russia could go broke. Some think that’s by US design. Saudi Arabia could experience its Arab Spring if oil prices remain too low too long. And OPEC is dead. That’s the biggest news in this new century for oil. The House of Saud has stated clearly many times now and again this week in an even more emphatic manner that it intends to move the oil market from decades of OPEC price manipulation to a raw supply-and-demand equation. Full Story
It started around 2008 and prices relate to debt. Fundamentally, the way the surprises were dealt with were in a very old fashioned way to grow and inflate their way out of debt. As we know, this process hasn’t really worked, and there’s really only two choices left. One of them is to default, which is hugely unpalatable because writing off peoples’ savings like that has consequences for future consumption, and a huge amount of wealth loss in the world. The other option is financial repression, which is a way of managing excess debt. The most common way is by very high levels of taxation. Full Story
For years the Fed has been lying about inflation. There are many methods of doing this, but the simplest was to use a “measure” of inflation that did not actually measure inflation at all. This is the famous Consumer Price Index of CPI. It is meant to measure inflation, but ignores obvious costs of living items like food and energy usage. Full Story
Are gold lease rates (GLR) really one of the major drivers of the price of gold, as is often cited? A lease rate is the market price for borrowing or lending the particular asset. Obviously, the gold lease rate is the cost of borrowing gold. In much the same way that individuals borrow dollars, pay interest, and then return dollars to the lender, gold bullion participants borrow gold, pay a borrowing cost, and return the gold to the lender. Full Story
Although we would never hold a position with commensurate expectations to an outlier outcome such as the bond crash in 1987, the levels of pessimism prevalent today regarding the state of the US and global economy could provide ample contrarian tinder should they largely go unfounded. Despite panning the prospects for equities here in the US and belief that monetary policy helped inflate stock valuations above their more fundamental underpinnings – we don’t buy into the deflationary thesis that sees the US and global economy sinking into another recession based on a more pernicious economic malaise. Full Story
In my testimony in support of the gold legal tender bill this year, I discussed failing pension funds. Retirees who count on their pension checks are being told that their monthly check will be reduced by up to 60%. This is devastating to them, obviously. What isn’t obvious is the cause. In the news coverage of this, the angry pensioners are blaming the union, the fund manager, and Wall Street in general. Full Story
David Gurwitz, Managing Director at Nenner Research returns to the show. David and his business partner Dr. Charles Nenner apply their mathematical constructs to the market to glean information about future price levels. Through cycles analysis of market time-series and a target algorithm, their team of analysts make forecasts among a variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds and currencies (Yen, Euro, Canadian and the US dollar). Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 13 May, 2016
The Global Financial Market took a big hit in 2015 and most investors have no idea why. The U.S. and global financial system both sit on a foundation that continues to erode each year. While the disintegration of the global financial substructure has been going on for many years, last year was a BIG ONE. Full Story
The Financial Repression Authority is delighted to have Charles Hugh Smith, prolific writer on the web and author of the highly acclaimed book, Why Our Status Quo Failed and is Beyond Reform. FRA Co-Founder, Gordon T. Long delineates with Charles on the core topics that are mentioned in his book as well as go over key diagrams to supportive diagrams. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 May, 2016
What a difference since 2001… AYE? Total Silver Maple and Eagle sales in 2001 were less than 10% of U.S. and Canadian Mine supply. Thus, these two countries had plenty of silver to supply their investment needs that year. However, the U.S. and Canada had to import 33.7 Moz in 2015 just to produce these two Official Silver coins. While the U.S. and Canada can continue to import enough silver to meet its current needs, this may not be true in the future. Full Story
The popular belief is that gold is a good hedge against inflation. Owning gold will protect you from rising prices. Is that true? Most people define inflation as rising prices. Economists will quibble and say technically it’s the increase in the quantity of money, however Milton Friedman expressed the popular belief well. He said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Full Story
You can guess, probably, that this is a story about coins. In particular, it’s about two gold coins that I recently purchased in London … and why ancient coins such as these not only represent great value in the market today, but they’re also one of the best assets you can own in a world where interest rates will remain low well into the next decade and, here in the U.S., could slip into negative territory in coming months. Full Story
I was recently interviewed by financial journalist Lars Schall on behalf of Swiss based Matterhorn Asset Management. Our interview covered the German and Russian gold markets, Venezuela’s official gold reserves, the secrecy of the London gold market, and the outlook for the gold price, among a number of other topics. Matterhorn kindly granted me permission to post the audio interview and transcript below. Full Story
The overall trend in the BBC Global Index, as well as the Dow industrials, is up, and so we will repeat what we have been stating for quite some time now; the stronger the correction, the better the buying opportunity. The markets are trading in the overbought ranges, so it goes without saying that traders need to be both prudent and patient. Investors should consider waiting for the markets to let out some steam before committing new capital. Volatility is the name of the game and here to stay. Full Story
For those that understand how metals trade, it is quite clear that they move to extremes. And, the main reason this is so is due to the driver of the metals market being emotionally based. Yes, you heard me right. The driver is not market crashes, or world-wide debt, or inflation, as so many have tried to sell you upon. Rather, emotion is what drives this market, and when you can understand how to track such emotion, you can have a better handle on how it may move. This is the main reason why it often pushes us to the edge of our expectations, and is driven to extreme movements. Full Story
Bulls barely kept their heads above water Tuesday and will have their work cut out for them if they are to avoid a dunking. That would require a print at 1277.80, a mere $7 above current levels. The most bullish scenario I could imagine at the moment would be a thrust over the next two days exceeding the 1297.05 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. That would steepen the trajectory of the rally since mid-February while presumably quieting the bearish buzz that seems to attend every bout of weakness lasting more than three days. Full Story
Monday was the optimal day to buy long when stocks completed the swing low. It’s not too late to buy today. But if you wait till your emotions give you the all clear then you are just making the classic retail trader mistake of buying high, and selling low. Now is the time to get on board when your risk is lowest and upside potential the largest. Full Story
In the six years since the recovery began, there has been endless debate over the strength of the U.S. economy. There are basically two sides of the debate. Those taking the positive side maintain the economy has almost returned to its pre-crisis levels and is on a firm footing. The opposing camp maintains that while the upper classes are in fine shape, the middle class is still hurting from the residual damage inflicted by the housing bubble implosion and credit crash. Is one side entirely mistaken or is there truth to both assertions? Full Story
Not that I have proof (re: the title), but I do have some charts to help make the point that people who bought gold and gold stocks due to inflation fears have been driving the gold sector higher since March. Back in January and February HUI rammed upward amid much doubt and skepticism because the general market backdrop was bearish and even more importantly, the commodity focused ‘inflation trade’ was nowhere to be found. At that time we were calling the deflation story “long in the tooth”. Full Story
Friday's disappointing jobs report sets the stage for markets to continue weighing the broader implications this week. Gold and silver prices rose modestly Friday on the increasing likelihood that the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates in June. However, the precious metals still registered losses for the week and have corrected further this morning. Full Story
We monitor the daily open interest changes in Comex gold and silver. We also wait each Friday for the latest Commitment of Traders report. Once a month, however, we also get the Bank Participation Report and, though it might be complete garbage and full of lies, we also need to consider this report for some historical perspective. Full Story
Well, the Fed failed to hike interest rates in January, March AND April despite the “data” hitting levels at which the Fed said it would hike. There is now talk of a potential hike in June… but the Fed futures indicate less than half of traders expect another hike before February 2017. Full Story
Rick’s professional background includes 12 years as a market maker on the floor of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader. His detailed strategies for stocks, options, and indexes have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Full Story
While precious metals investors are concerned about the short-term price movements in silver, the real focus should be on this amazing silver market trend. When the silver market data finally came out in the new 2016 World Silver Survey (released May 5th), it really surprised me. And, it takes a lot to surprise me. Full Story
Our friend, Paul Mychresst, has written this extraordinarily comprehensive report on the current state of the global gold "market". His timing couldn't be better. As price holds firm against the extreme efforts of The Bullion Banks, it is absolutely critical that you take the time to read this tremendous summary of the current situation. Full Story
Although silver functions mainly as an industrial metal, it is strongly tied to the price of gold and is generally more volatile during upside and downside moves of the yellow metal. In times of financial distress and economic calamity, silver tends to behave more like a precious metal with widespread hoarding of gold trickling down. For this reason, it is often called the “poor man’s gold”. Full Story
The first answer that comes to one’s mind is yes, as this economic recovery has been nothing but an illusion. The unemployment rate might have dropped, but the way the BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) calculates this figure is questionable at best. They conveniently do not include individuals who have stopped looking for a job in their calculation. Mind you, many of these people stopped looking for a job; not because they no longer want to work, but after trying a countless number of times without success, they simply gave up and assumed they would never land a job. Full Story
This is not the first time this subject matter has crossed these page, and I can assure you, it won’t be the last. The forces behind the colloquialism ‘no free lunch’ is a primary tenant in nature, and for this reason a correspondingly central tenant of ‘sound economics’ and the Austrian School. This ideal caught my attention like no other studying economics way back when because it was the only sign on my favorite professors door besides his name. That’s how I grew to appreciate its importance – through this brilliant imagery. Full Story
The price of gold moved down slightly this week, while that of silver dropped more substantially—1.9%. We don’t see much decrease in the enthusiasm yet from this minor setback. This was a shortened week due to the May Day holiday outside the US. Let’s look at the only true picture of supply and demand fundamentals. But first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 9 May, 2016
Estimates indicate that there will not be enough water available on current croplands to produce food for the expected population in 2050 if we follow current trends and changes towards diets common in Western nations (3,000 kcal produced per capita, including 20 percent of calories produced coming from animal proteins). Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives showcases his investing methods that he's honed over forty years in the markets. His mentor Bob Farrell guided Arch during his tenure at Merrill Lynch. Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates, returns to the show with must hear market commentary. The gold bullion aficionado prefers real money over currency, which carries a negative interest rate. Full Story
The gold price didn’t do much of anything in Far East and morning trading in London on their Friday, but got sold off a hair once the noon silver fix was in, in London. The price went vertical—and was up $15 the ounce within seconds of the release of the job numbers. It took 20,000+ contracts to cap the price at that point—and once the p.m. fix was done it chopped higher until minutes after 1 p.m. EDT. At that point someone ramped the dollar index—and hit the ‘sell precious metals’ button—and that was it for the gold price. Full Story
There has been a lot of talk about how gold is not a good inflation hedge. Indeed, with the recent bounce in inflation expectations, this was shown to be true over a short timeframe, at least in relation to silver and other commodities. Gold sagged while the more inflation-sensitive commodities bounced. Full Story
I like the odds that Friday marked the bottom of the daily cycle and half intermediate cycle decline. The next daily cycle should be right translated as well and rally at least into the second week of June before the market starts to get nervous about the Brexit and we get another corrective move. At this point there is virtually no doubt that the 7 year cycle correction is finished and the next phase of this QE driven bull market is beginning. Full Story
Below is a long term weekly chart we’ve been following which shows the breakouts and backtesting that have been going on for several months with gld and slv, and just 5 weeks or so for the HUI. This big picture look from 35,000 feet shows how infant this new bull market is right now. It was basically born back in January of this year and is just opening its eyes. What we want to see now is a higher high in the coming days and weeks. Full Story
Gold just gained 0.40% this past week but it held key support and setup a nice pattern to now move higher out of. Great action for gold as it tested the key $1,280 breakout level and is now set to break above the bull flag. Gold is acting great and dips can be bought as this newly changed dominant trend to up is now in full force. Full Story
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