Record student loan balances? Check. Trillion dollar credit card debt? Check. Six tech stocks dominating the Nasdaq? Check. Subprime auto loans at record levels? Check. All that’s missing is subprime mortgages and we’d have every bubble base covered. Oh wait, those are back too, just under a different name. Full Story
It is hardly surprising that with equity indices stalling, the financial community is increasingly worried that the long, steady bull market is coming to an end. Naturally, this makes investors look for reasons to worry, and it turns out that there are indeed many things to worry about. Full Story
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has just announced he will introduce a bill to end taxes on capital “gains” that are simply a result of inflation. Cruz’s inflation-indexing bill seeks to “expand economic growth and encourage more investment into the economy, helping create more opportunities for hardworking Americans.” Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets have enjoyed an amazing bull run. But February’s first correction in years proved things are changing. With that unnatural low-volatility melt-up behind us, it’s more important than ever to keep leading stocks’ underlying fundamentals in focus. They help investors understand which major American companies are the best buys and when to deploy capital in them. Full Story
Attention, please! The leverage in the stock market has been recently rising. As one can see in the chart below, the stock market margin debt surged more than $113 billion in 2017, one of the largest annual surges. Moreover, it was the ninth annual increase in a row. Full Story
For those who believe the conflict, confrontation, and trade war with China is very recent and fresh, not true. The war of words and sabre rattling is part of a longstanding trade war between the two superpowers. The war with China has been brewing for many years, with much hidden in the background battles over legacy USTreasury Bonds and hidden Gold stores. The United States does not publicize this conflict, since the US actions are full of dishonor, deceit, fraud, and murders within the secret war. To begin with, Washington officials have steadfastly refused to honor high valued old bonds backed by gold, claiming they are very old. Full Story
If Comex digital metal prices were back down today solely upon easing war fears, I think we'd all be relieved and fine with it. But when you realize that yesterday's "market" action was simply just the latest act of The Criminal Banks, you might feel otherwise. Full Story
Please keep in mind that I am openly accusing the nation’s largest bank of criminal market activity and the federal commodities regulator of willful malfeasance. It’s beyond remarkable that neither can address such public accusations. That’s one big reason why more have become convinced that silver is manipulated in price. In no way should any of this be taken to be at odds with my strong belief that the next move up in silver could and should be the big one. In fact, it enhances that setup in more ways than ever before. Full Story
There appears to be an eternal back and forth between those that “love” and those that “hate” gold; that discussion, in my humble opinion, misses the point. It is striking how this shiny metal raises emotions by both friends and foes. Maybe it is because gold is so simple, so pure, the fact that there are fairly few industrial uses for it, that emotions take over in discussing gold’s merits. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org says it's business as usual in the markets; the gold / silver price rigging continues to plague the sector. Dovish comments from the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, suggests a relative value in commodities relative to shares and paper assets. The World Gold Council notes gold reached peak supply in 2017, suggesting that lower output could increase demand pushing price to $1,500 in 2018. Full Story
I am writing to you about something of great importance, the path to the gold standard. Thank you for introducing H.R. 5404. I agree with your findings, especially that inflation undermines jobs and retirement. Yet I must say that the dollar cannot now be defined as a weight of gold. Full Story
Are we going to write about Syria? North Korea? China? No. You already know everything you should about these geopolitical threats. The media bomb you with news about bombings, trade wars, nuclear trials, etc. But the key upheaval is taking place in silence, in the cool marble rooms of the Federal Reserve Banks. ‘The Hawkish Revolution’ – this is how the future historians will call it. Full Story
The stock market hit all-time highs in January, corrected, and might rally to new highs… or maybe not… See below. Official unemployment is low if you believe the statistics and ignore the millions excluded from the calculations. Inflation, according to official numbers, is low. New cars may have doubled in price in the last 20 years but hedonic adjustments have “massaged” the official inflation on cars to nearly zero. Again, if you believe the numbers… The Chapwood index is more believable. Full Story
It looks like the subprime auto loan bubble has popped. Last year, we reported that the auto industry’s check engine light was on. Now it looks like the thing is totally breaking down. Small subprime auto lenders are starting to go belly-up due to increasing losses and defaults. As ZeroHedgenoted, “we all know what comes next: the larger companies go bust, inciting real capitulation.” Full Story
Just when everyone was getting used to gold sitting around and doing nothing while tech stocks provided non-stop thrills and chills, the metal took off this morning on the “news” (read “Tweet”) that Trump is aiming some cruise missiles at Syria. Now the $1,360 resistance level that has been an absolute brick wall since 2014 is looming once again, and gold-bugs are – once again – wondering where the next resistance lurks if this level is finally pierced. Full Story
Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company and Pete Speaks returns with commentary on the US stock market and the PMs sector. Topping the financial headlines; the trade war between Washington DC and China, as well as the new Shanghai gold backed yuan-petro futures exchange. While our key trading partners, China / Russia continue to stockpile sound money, i.e., gold / silver, the West is doubling down on debt. Full Story
As the U.S. and global economy speed towards the Seneca Cliff, very few individuals understand the fragile nature of currencies. Today, we use the lightning speed of the digital banking system to make our purchases at the store or online. It has become seemingly natural to buy groceries at the swipe of a card. Only a small percentage of purchases are made with cash… paper money. Full Story
It’s a relatively quiet trend, but the most active of investors—hedge funds and traders—are aggressively putting gold hedges in place. It shouldn’t really be a surprise, given the recent spike in volatility in the stock market. It hasn’t been reported much in the mainstream, but an increasing number of people who make their living from investing are betting on gold. Full Story
There has been some revisionist history written lately regarding the gold price smash of September 2011. Since we at TFMR were paying close attention at the time, we are in the unique position of reminding everyone what really happened. Full Story
We are hearing daily about the possibility of “trade wars”. It is this possibility that is being blamed for the increased volatility (read markets dropping), but I do not believe it is the only factor. In fact, equity markets began their upset as interest rates marched higher and prior to any talk of trade wars. Of course other factors exist such as cross currency rates (which directly affect trade) and liquidity, not to mention the gross indebtedness of nations. Full Story
The main drivers of global stock, bond, and gold markets are interest rates and demographics. Unfortunately, most investors focus on items that get a lot of media attention but are almost irrelevant to price discovery in the markets. I’ve predicted that there will be no trade war, but governments around the world will roll out a modest amount of mildly inflationary tariff taxes. Clearly, top economists at both Fitch and Goldman have the same outlook that I do. Full Story
What is truth? I suppose that question has caused more than one person to sit and think for a while. In today’s society we have more information at our fingertips than ever before. The great libraries of the world cannot compare with the data available from a single smart phone. But with so much data how do we determine truth. Full Story
After being mostly absent in 2017, volatility has made a comeback. The SPX 500 Index closed down for the first three months of 2018—the first time it’s done so in 10 quarters. It also had its worst start to April since 1929. Gold performed as expected during the quarter, serving as a safe haven and delivering positive returns, while the price of oil surged more than 5 percent on U.S. dollar weakness and news that OPEC and Russia could be cooperating to limit output for a long period. Full Story
But in his new commentary at Sharps Pixley, headlined "Gold Says 'Peak Complacency,'" Norman professes to wonder about gold's being "trapped in narrow trading ranges and unresponsive to geopolitical events," about the lack of news and substantial commentary about gold, and about the seeming complacency of the financial markets. Full Story
This is no April Fools’ joke, folks: Trump’s tweets and threats on trade tariffs are treating us to tremendous turmoil in the financial sector. Some investors are visibly nervous given the recent downturn and a doubling of market volatility. However, let’s put some levity on the current situation: as of market close on April 6, the SPX 500 is off over 9% and the Dow is down 10% from their all-time highs in late January. Full Story
What the heck is going on with gold? The past few weeks have seen global equities falling amid a broad selloff in tech stocks, but the traditional safe haven metal has barely budged, floating along in a fairly tight range of between around $1320 and $1330 an ounce with the exception of a spike to $1354 on March 26 and a slip on March 16 and 20. See the tech stock-dominant Nasdaq one-month chart versus one-month gold. Full Story
There’s been an abundance of commentary on the net long position of the “Swap Dealers” in Comex silver futures per the COT report. As of the latest COT report, the Swap Dealers are net long almost 22k silver contracts. This is unprecedented. At the same time, the “Large Speculators,” the majority of which is comprised of the “managed money” (hedge funds) sub-component, are net short nearly 17k silver contracts. Full Story
Precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on buy signals. Cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
As we have noted in the past, global debt has soared during this period by some $90 trillion. In the U.S. debt has grown by almost $20 trillion. In the U.S. the Federal national debt has soared over $1.1 trillion since Trump’s election. Despite all of this, the money supply (M2) has grown by only about $6.3 trillion. The Fed’s balance sheet soared by almost $4 trillion. GDP on the other hand only grew by roughly $6.1 trillion. It took $3.27 of debt to purchase $1 of GDP. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was gold, up 0.62 percent. Gold posted its third quarterly gain last quarter, for the longest run since 2011, according to Bloomberg. The weekly Bloomberg survey of trader sentiment showed that most gold traders were neutral this week, while last week they were bearish on the yellow metal. Full Story
The saying "the worm has turned" refers to the moment when the downtrodden have finally had enough, and turn on their powerful oppressors. The worms have finally turned against the privileged elites -- who have benefited so greatly from globalization, corruption, central bank stimulus and the profiteering of state-enforced cartels. It doesn’t matter as much as the punditry assumes whether they are turning Left or Right; the important thing is that the powerless have finally started challenging their privileged overlords. Full Story
Readers know that I have beaten this drum all too often. Gold’s major fundamental driver is declining or negative real rates. There is a strong inverse correlation because Gold is money. That’s what JP Morgan said and he’s far more qualified to understand than quotable celebrities like Mark Cuban. But I digress. When real rates are increasing or strongly positive (during most of the 1980s and 1990s and 2011 through 2015) Gold performs poorly because one can earn a real return on their money unlike with Gold. Full Story
We now have the most bullish setup for silver that we have ever seen. After trading sideways / down for over 20 months now, investors have completely lost interest in it, which is of course the perfect breeding ground for a huge rally that seems to come out of nowhere. As we will proceed to see both COTs and the silver to gold ratio are at record extremes that point to a major bullmarket in silver starting imminently. Full Story
SLV along with the PM stocks have been under performing gold in a pretty significant way. Normally you would like to see the PM stocks outperforming gold on the front end of a bull market similar to what we saw back in the beginning of the 2000 bull market in the PM complex. So far that hasn’t been the case. Full Story
Do you want to lend your hard-earned money to the US government? In exchange for the high, high interest rate of 2.8%? It’s a most generous deal, even though the Federal Reserve is committed to dollar devaluation at the rate of 2% per annum. So you are getting 0.8% per year, assuming that the Fed hits its goal. In exchange for lending to a profligate and counterfeit borrower—the government has neither the means nor intent to repay. Full Story
Well David we've seen a tremendously tight trading range in the metals markets over the last several months, especially in silver, and before we get into some other topics with you today I wanted to get your thoughts on what these prolonged periods of a range trade or a base building market generally means for us moving forward. When you see this type of thing on the charts for one of the precious metals or for some other commodity for that matter, I know you cover a lot of different markets, does it mean that we're likely to see a big move one way or the other? Is it a bullish indicator that we're building a major base of support from which to launch, what do you think? Full Story
When an entity needs to borrow ever-greater amounts of money to survive, the markets – that is, the people who are being asked to lend the money – eventually rebel. This rebellion takes the form of rising interest rates as lenders demand a higher return to compensate for the extra risk, and falling credit scores as rating agencies are forced by the markets to face reality. Full Story
As far as the market is concerned, pressure will remain down to lower lows if we remain below 2623 in the futures early this coming week. A strong rally over 2623ES, which exceeds the high we made last week will point us back up towards the March highs. And, such a rally would only extend this correction into the May/June time frame. Full Story
When I played pro hockey in Richmond, Virgina, it was during the era of "Slapshot!" and the Broad Street Bullies when gooning (fighting) was fashionable and an integral part of the sport. Stocking your team with two-or three enforcers meant that the finesse players could sail around the ice doing pirouettes and triple axles and dipsy-doodles without the fear of some 250-lb lumberjack from northern Quebec impaling them. Full Story
We were recently asked if the price of gold is likely to rally because of the increased volatility in stocks. This seems believable at the first sight, as gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and thus people could be buying it when the stock market’s movement becomes chaotic, scary and/or unpredictable. Full Story
Market historians have pored over stock charts from the late 1920s, attempting to show that share prices danced closely in step with the political ups and downs of the Smoot Hawley bill as it moved through Congress. The law, which raised tariffs on more than 20,000 imported items, was enacted in June 1930 — close enough to the October 1929 Crash to suggest a causal connection. However, because we are currently witnessing the effects of tariff-war fears on the markets in real time, we can see the fallacy of this idea. Full Story
The head of Eagle Plains Resources Ltd., CEO Tim J. Termuende, makes his show debut. Eagle Plains Resources is a mineral explorer located in Western Canada that seeks key deposits of gold, base metals, uranium, rare earth elements, and industrial minerals. Part II. of the discussion with Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A continues the intriguing dialogue on silver and Bitcoin. Full Story
The gold price was up about seven bucks or so by around 9:20 a.m. China Standard Time on their Friday morning, but at that moment, the dollar index was turned higher -- and gold turned lower. By shortly before 9 a.m. BST in London, the price was down a bit over four dollars. It didn't do a lot until about ten minutes before the COMEX open -- and it began to head higher. Gold then blasted higher the moment that the job numbers hit the tape, but was hauled down immediately. Full Story
The future is tantalizing because it is both unknown and unknowable. At best, we can make educated guesses about tomorrow or next year. Sometimes, it’s actually hard to understand what happened in the past, much less to chart how the future might unfold. Full Story
Following news coverage of the charging of five precious metals traders and three banks in January, Commodities Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice documents reveal a global criminal cabal of 16 traders operating in at least four major financial institutions between 2008 and 2015 to defraud COMEX gold and silver futures markets. Full Story
As the U.S. and global oil industry continues to disintegrate under the weight increased debt and the Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment, analysts are still suggesting that solar and wind power are the solution to our energy problems. While there are many good reasons solar and wind can’t provide us with the necessary energy needs in the future, the most import one is that it takes the burning of a massive amount of coal, natural gas, and oil to manufacture renewable energy sources. Full Story
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