By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 13 April, 2012
Gold has been weathering some considerable selling pressure lately, which has naturally turned sentiment quite pessimistic. Bearish commentary abounds, with all kinds of predictions for further declines. But as is usually the case after any material selloff spooks traders, gold’s technicals are actually very bullish today. Gold’s next move will likely prove to be a major rally. Full Story
Summing up, the general stock market picture is mixed for the short term and bullish for the medium term. The implications are rather bullish overall for silver but should not be our primary focus at this time. The charts of the white metal itself seem to be better resources today. The situation in silver remains bullish. Full Story
EARLIER Thomson Reuters GFMS, the world's foremost research firm focusing on precious metals, launched its Gold Survey 2012. For those weighing up the pros and cons of making a gold investment this year there were both bullish and bearish signals. Full Story
Several years ago, I pointed out that it would be unlikely that a serious economic recovery would occur here in the US due to the issues of peak oil (as well as poor policy decisions), and unfortunately, so far that thesis is intact. Yet that still hasn’t stopped gas prices from hitting $4/gallon and it would be my guess that before too long, Americans will be comfortable with it and anything less will be considered ‘cheap’. Regrettably, other than restructuring our lives to reflect this new reality, there is little we as consumers can do about this one. Full Story
The fact that gold is being treated as money, the fact that gold is being valued according to its relationship with other currencies, the fact that the world’s central banks are buying, and not selling gold, should be on all our radar screens, are these truths on yours? Full Story
This decade increasingly offers the opportunity to Profit and Protect Wealth provided one is aware of Key Realities that are Veiled from common view. One such Veiled (except to a few, including most readers here) Reality is that the Price of Silver (and Gold) is subject to ongoing Cartel (Note 3) Price Suppression operations. Full Story
A new government offensive against microcap fraud and money laundering is aimed at crooks and evildoers. But the attack is also creating problems for innocent people who own low priced shares. As brokers and clearing firms run for cover under a barrage of new microcap compliance dictates, the collateral damage inflicted by the federal assault ranges from inconvenience to major trouble. Full Story
I am writing this, having just returned from the fourth course at the New Austrian School of Economics, in Munich. The single biggest theme was the rate of interest and its linkage to prices. Kondratieff, among several others, have observed that rising prices lead to rising interest rates and vice versa. And the opposite case is also true, falling interest rates go with falling prices (all else being equal). Full Story
Yesterday, for instance, they were advised to cover half of a bullish position we’d staked out in GDXJ, a vehicle popular with the gold crowd that tracks junior mining stocks. We paid an average 1.85 for some August near-the-money call options, but because the stock has been strong this week, we were able to exit half of them yesterday for 2.25, a nickel off the high. The implied 40-cent profit has effectively reduced the costs basis of the calls we still hold to 1.45. Considering that the options have more than four months till expiration, odds of making a profit look pretty good. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 12 April, 2012
What Alan Greenspan said still holds true today. But now we have to replace welfare statists for central banks and other financial institutions, in a global world. We see it in the financial debt problems of nations, of individual states in banks and in many corporations as many wobble in the face of bankruptcy. The issue of more currency either through swaps to the Eurozone or though quantitative easing in the U.S. has neatly postponed the problem but in doing so has exacerbated it. The banking crisis has been alleviated but the national debt problems have not yet been alleviated. Even the U.S. with a debt to GDP level of 90% is such a candidate. Full Story
What an incredibly complex confusing and treacherous month. It can be safely said that 80% of the activity is almost totally kept from the public. The financial system is breaking in an accelerated fashion. Compare to some grisly horror movie where a man is strapped in a chair. The more he moves, the tighter the bindings pull on his gasping throat and pressed nether stones. The most significant two factors at work are the Iran sanctions and their powerful backfire, and the futile efforts in Europe to stem the banking center collapse. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 12 April, 2012
Last week, responding to President Obama's latest populist assault on the wealthy, I issued a commentary in which I explained why his ideas about American economic history were fundamentally flawed. As dangerous and erroneous as those views are, at least I can cut the President some slack for commenting on a subject in which he really has no basis for expertise. Full Story
The history of the U.S. dollar is closely linked to U.S. involvement in a series of wars. The Bretton Woods Accord and the resulting world reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar were both byproducts of World War II (1939-1945). The Korean War (1950-1953) was followed six years later by the Vietnam War (1959-1975) which led to the end of the Bretton Woods system. Unfettered by the constraint of gold backing after 1971, the U.S. dollar became a weapon in the Cold War (1945–1991) between the U.S. and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.). Each war corresponded with an increase in the U.S. money supply. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 12 April, 2012
Gerald Loeb was most of the most respected analysts on Wall Street, during the Great Depression years and through the following decades. He wrote an epic book, titled “The Battle for Investment Survival,” last published in 1965. Many of his pearls of wisdom, concerning the financial markets and rules of investing, have withstood the test of time. Yet one has to wonder though, if Loeb’s long held truths about the markets would stand up to the erratic behavior of today’s world of high frequency trading (HFT). Full Story
Vietnam is frequently cited as an example of somewhere which acknowledges gold’s role as money; it is a medium of exchange and is used as such every day. Houses come with two prices in Vietnam; the price in dong and the price in gold – gold is most often the favoured form of payment (Thiers’ law in effect). Full Story
GOLD has risen nicely since the meltdown following Lehmans' collapse, with the gold price in Dollars rising 130%. Until last summer, however, platinum had done better still. Indeed, a trader "could have made a lot of money buying platinum and selling gold since Lehman Brothers," as Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS said Wednesday, taking analyst questions after launching the precious-metals consultancy's new Gold Survey 2012 at Thomson Reuters' HQ in London. Full Story
By: Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante - 12 April, 2012
If there has been a more dangerous time for your wealth in human history we are unaware of it. There have been individual or even entire nations of people who have been wiped out in the past but never before has there been such risk to assets across the entire globe. Full Story
By way of NFTRH subscriber MetalAugmentor, a reputable and hard working mining stock fundamental research service to which I also subscribe, comes this thread talking about an entity called Turd Ferguson. Full Story
Allow me to bring you up to date on what you need to know about JP Morgan's manipulation of the silver market. It is being exposed, and JP Morgan is failing, and losing money on their scheme. On April 5th, we were given the gift of JP Morgan's Blythe Masters giving a TV interview on CNBC where she was trying to claim that JP Morgan does not hold any position in the silver market, but rather, is hedging client long positions in silver. Full Story
The safe approach to economic forecasting is to take a long established trend and carry it on for another year, and say ‘hey look that is where we are going’. It is, however, rather more controversial to predict that this will be it for a trend that has been running for 12 years. Full Story
America’s long slide into economic eclipse continued this week with the announcement that Facebook is buying Instagram for $1 billion. What? You’ve never heard of Instagram? It’s a photo-sharing application for iPhones that was developed by two twenty-somethings. The company has about a dozen employees, no revenues nor even a business model, so it’s safe to say that Instagram has almost zero impact on the U.S economy. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Doug Groh - 11 April, 2012
While gold equities continue to trail the gold price, junior stocks are gaining traction according to Doug Groh, co-portfolio manager and senior analyst with Tocqueville Asset Management. He believes investors should not let the market's risk aversion keep them out of a stock picker's market. The trick, Groh reveals in this exclusive Gold Report interview, is to pick managements, not jurisdictions. Full Story
As an analyst who spends a great deal of time researching biotech and pharma companies, I'm well aware of the challenges facing the drug industry in the US today. From onerous regulation and an approval process that has made drug development prohibitively costly and complex to the pending patent cliff that puts more than $35 billion in annual sales at risk to the apparent decline in innovation suggested by the steep drop in patent applications from big pharma – all portend an increasing inability to replenish shrinking pipelines with new products… i.e., to produce drugs that improve and save lives. Full Story
Only weeks ago Italian technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti proselytized that the Eurozone crisis was “almost over”. It felt like more propaganda from the European establishment, and since returning from the Easter break the markets don’t seem to be agreeing with him. Spanish and Italian yields are firmly on the rise again, marking a reverse of the trend helped into action by €1bn of refinancing money from the ECB. Tensions are rising once more given that Spain and Italy are ‘too big to bail’. Full Story
The infographic on vaulted gold explains what vaulted gold is and visualizes key facts relating to investments in gold, which is stored on behalf of investors in high-security vaults. Full Story
This is EXTREMELY INDICTING. The head of J.P. Morgue’s derivatives nightmare is telling the world that their business is “customer driven” and on the other hand – the OCC – whom J.P. Morgue reports to - is telling us there are NO CUSTOMERS [or none that want to be identified] for these hundreds of TRILLIONS of derivatives products? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 11 April, 2012
Since 2000 the Fed has entrapped itself in perpetual issuance of money and credit and now the ECB has done the same thing. Once begun there is no going back. It either works or the system collapses. It is our opinion that the ECB is out of control and this is only the beginning. If the $1.4 trillion the ECB dispensed isn’t enough and it won’t be, then we will have lots more currency swaps in the future and that means higher inflation. Full Story
Gold prices have actually risen quite sharply and silver has held its ground as global stock markets took a dive this week. So far there has been none of the price crushing rush to sell off gold and silver to meet stock market margin calls that we saw in late 2008. Full Story
A few consecutive days of hard selling does not a bear market make, but it’s heartening to see that stocks are still capable of deferring to reality – in this case, weakening corporate earnings. For what it’s worth, the sharp decline has produced the first bearish “impulse leg” that we’ve seen on the S&P 500’s daily chart since last November. This triggered a negative warning according to our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method of analysis. Although the weakness does not necessarily portend the onset of a major bear market, odds of this will increase if, for one, the E-Mini S&Ps smash the key low at 1332.50 recorded on March 6. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 10 April, 2012
Mr. Bernanke is entirely right about the return of the Gold Standard, as it was implemented then could not work now. In its day, it was appropriate and worked well for many years, but the circumstances it worked in changed. The system did not change with those changes. Bear in mind that the world was at a stage where it believed in gold as the only money that one could trust. That’s why governments and their central banks issued notes against it and not un-backed currencies. The notes represented an amount of gold that could be trusted. Of themselves government notes represented not governments but their gold. Full Story
The longer-term trends in gold's supply-demand fundamentals point to a potentially explosive market situation in the years ahead. In short, the supply trend is static to shrinking while global demand trends, particularly from investors and central banks, appear to be in a period of rapid expansion. What's more the political, financial and economic dynamics driving these trends are not likely to undergo any significant reversal anytime soon for reasons explored below. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 10 April, 2012
While it would never happen, it's fun to imagine a program like "Capital Account" being broadcast on business news television in the United States. What a panic that would set off among the thieves of Wall Street and Washington. In the meantime, it constitutes the first 21 minutes at the Russia Today video archive here... Full Story
It's clear to me, even though it may not be clear to you, that unless there is something very unusual about your situation, if you have a traditional IRA, you should pay the tax now and convert it to a Roth IRA. Not just maybe, but definitely. Not just for a small advantage but for a big one. If you don't convert today, you'll ultimately surrender much more to the tax collector. You'll be throwing money away. And you'll keep throwing it away. It's a result neither of us wants. Full Story
It's not just the United States that will have a potentially major leadership shake up this fall. China is set to undergo it's once in a decade leadership transition at its 18th China Communist Party (CCP) Congress. In contrast to the long, bombastic, and often indecisive American election process, the Chinese approach to regime succession is conducted behind closed doors, and can sometimes result in severe shifts in policy. This decisiveness was on view today as rising Chinese political star Bo Xilai was ousted from his remaining leadership positions. Full Story
We often get fearful queries from short-term traders who are concerned about short-term movements in the precious metals market. Now we’re even getting worried e-mails and questions from investors who are holding long-term positions. This is an indication that sentiment is scraping the bottom and that is usually seen at major bottoms. Full Story
If Warren Buffett was a member of the gold community, would he book losses on his gold stocks now and exit the market? I’ll suggest that he would be a buyer, not a bailer, and he would be anticipating an enormous rally. Marking some of the OTC derivatives debt to model has created the illusion that the size of this debt has shrunk. I don’t think much of the OTC derivatives problem has really been solved, and the story of the OTCDs is really now the story of the invisible man. Full Story
There was a very interesting and potentially significant development dropped into the silver equation this week. I’m speaking of the appearance of the head of commodities for JPMorgan, Blythe Masters, in a short interview Thursday on CNBC. There has already been widespread reaction to the clip and I must admit that it touched off a whirlwind of different thoughts in my mind. Quite frankly, I’m glad I’ve had a bit of time to sort them out before commenting. Full Story
As I often say, investing, like life, is about managing expectations—even throughout gold’s decade-long rise, price action over the short term can go both ways. It helps to look at what happens after short-term drops. For example, looking at the past decade of one-day 5 percent declines in gold, you can see that this event is pretty rare. In 2006, gold dropped more than 5 percent in a day only two times. In 2008, there were three such events. Another one occurred at the end of this February. Full Story
For the conservative investor, selecting specific gold stocks has been more effective than buying the index this year. Shorting the index, on the other hand, has proved effective for the more aggressive speculator. Bottom feeder speculators may see an opportunity at current price levels, but the technical trend is bearish, and there is no technical sign of a reversal in the established bearish trend for this broad gold stock index. Full Story
The global economy is healing, so we are told. Yet, the moment the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicates just that – and thus implying no additional stimulus may be warranted – the markets appear to throw a tantrum. In the process, the U.S. dollar has enjoyed what may be a temporary lift. To make sense of the recent turmoil, let’s look at the drivers of this “recovery” and potential implications for the U.S. dollar, gold, bonds and the stock market. Full Story
I am already fundamentally bullish quality gold stocks, with a shopping list of items including former portfolio members to add to the mini core already held when the time is right. But the technicals must be right as well. This could come with an upward reversal and break back above the HUI neckline area (475 or so) or more likely in my opinion, at lower levels as the broad markets sort themselves out in the coming weeks. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and George Ireland - 10 April, 2012
George Ireland, portfolio manager with Boston-based Geologic Resource Partners, believes in seeing what he invests in and his passport bears witness: 80 countries visited in five years. From Africa to Argentina, from gold to lithium and graphite, he and his team seek out companies with experienced management, promising geology, good infrastructure and strong cash flow. Ireland shares his views on issues facing the mining industry in all corners of the world in this exclusive Gold Report interview. Full Story
A story last week in the Wall Street Journal provided a fascinating glimpse into the world of high-speed, or “algo,” trading. Who knew there was something called a “Hide Not Slide” order lurking in the murky shadows of electronic trading? Although this particular type of transaction might be difficult for the layman to understand, suffice it to say that it electronically hides or exposes bids and offers as needed with the skill of a three-card Monte hustler. Full Story
Even during periods of negative real interest rates, there are times when US Treasuries perform well in comparison to hard assets - usually during short-term periods of financial stress when investors are scrambling. However, under normal conditions, a US Treasury bond can be expected to provide a total return that is close to its coupon rate, which today is below the rate of inflation. Any investor using real interest rates to gauge the gold bull market must look through short-term fluctuations to see the secular trend. And today - while the US is overloaded with debt and the Federal Reserve is printing money without hesitation - the secular trend of negative real interest rates remains intact. Full Story
It is not groundbreaking news that sentiment in this sector is terrible. It is nearing 2008 levels. Yet, is the extreme bearish sentiment justified? We posit this because the HUI is currently 31% off its highs. Including 2008, this is the 6th correction of at least 30% or more. The HUI could fall another 13% to 385 and this decline would remain similar to declines in previous years. Full Story
The case for gold is that nothing has changed and if anything, policy has been pushed further out on a limb. Meanwhile, it appears that some powerful forces have begun a campaign, which has included Ben Bernanke's recent lectures and JPM's 'Head of Global Commodities' Blythe Masters protesting a bit too much on CNBC about JPM silver manipulation being speculated upon in the blogosphere. Full Story
The Fed’s recent inference that QE3 was not imminent has caused physical gold and silver and the HUI and the XAU to breach their downside support lines. These transitions set up the distinct possibility that we could well see $1,500 gold and the HUI and XAU at 400 and 144, respectively! Let me outline my analyses of the current situation and how it might unfold. Full Story
As I pointed out in my last article the dollar is beginning its second daily cycle up in what could very well be a cyclical bull market. This should correspond with the stock market topping and the next leg down in the secular bear market. My best guess is that we will see a sharp selloff over the next 2 to 3 weeks, followed by a sharp rebound (QE3) that may, or may not, move stocks to marginal new highs, similar to the 2007 top. Full Story
Stocks were struggling to get airborne late Sunday night after dive-bombing the tarmac Friday on news that the U.S economy had created a measly 120,000 jobs last month. Index futures traded just briefly on Good Friday before electronic markets closed at 9:15 a.m. for the holiday, but that was long enough for DaBoyz to take stocks down to fire-sale levels on near-zero volume. The E-Mini Dow futures plummeted 120 points in less than two minutes, setting the glum tone when trading resumed Sunday evening. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 8 April, 2012
We've all heard the old adage about adding insult to injury but the IMF has turned it into an art form. The new IMF Director, Christine Lagarde, came to Washington this week begging for yet more billions so the fund can continue propping up insolvent European banks and wrapping developing countries around the globe in debt chains. Lagarde is on a political junket with the aim of raising an additional $500 billion for the IMF, money that will be used for future Eurozone bailouts and other financial crises, or so they say. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 8 April, 2012
Our friend R.V. writes: "If the naked short position in gold on behalf of the Federal Reserve through its intermediaries is so big that it can drive down the bullion markets with mere paper (and I believe that it is), then what is the likely strategic endgame that these evil people have in mind? Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 8 April, 2012
Today's employment numbers were decidedly soft, but the unemployment rate went down anyway, and that is about the best you can say. And this being a holiday weekend, it provides us an opportunity to look deep into the employment numbers, while we put off thinking about Spain for at least a week. And who knew that being an unmarried Asian-American in the US was a risk for unemployment? Plus a few other interesting items will make for an interesting letter. Full Story
It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. At least so the saying goes. When you're wrong, in my opinion, best to admit it and move on. This is what all traders must do if they plan to survive long enough to become the 5% (or less) that can actually do it profitably over the long term. Full Story
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