The precious metals sector is oversold and due for a bounce. Miners and metals have endured severe declines in recent weeks and are likely to rebound from the 2014 lows. The miners are just starting to rebound and the metals should follow. However, until proven otherwise this appears to be an oversold bounce that could last only a few weeks. Potential danger lies ahead before a sustained turnaround. Full Story
Right now, even the staunchest gold investors are weary of the years-long drubbing the gold price has taken since its $1,921 peak in August 2011. Whether the frustrating experience is the work of a market-rigging conspiracy, government manipulation of data to hide inflation, those blindingly loyal Keynesians who keep pounding us with messages that gold is nothing but a “shiny bitcoin,” or the gullibility of mainstream investors who tell themselves that, gee, since Warren Buffett is a billionaire, his “gold has no utility” mantra must be right, it hasn’t been fun. The nasty downcycle has offered no respite. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 13 March, 2015
The mighty US dollar has been red-hot in March, rocketing higher on the incredible divergence of major central-bank policies. While the Federal Reserve’s first rate-hike cycle in 9 years looms, the European Central Bank has started aggressively monetizing sovereign debt for the first time ever. The resulting yield differential has catapulted the dollar parabolic, portending a major reversal and fantastic trading opportunity. Full Story
We all know that the current, LBMA system is broken, arcane and in need of modernization. Into this void steps a company called Bullion Capital with a new, wholesale metals exchange designed to rival and, ultimately, circumvent the LBMA. In this interview, the CEO of Bullion Capital, Tom Coughlin, addresses how this new exchange will operate and why it has the potential to be such a game-changer. Full Story
The luxury of paying your government to hold your money, once thought as absurd, hilarious and downright preposterous is now a reality. For the first time ever, Germany sold five year debt at a negative interest rate. You heard that correct, German citizens and investing institutions that wish to buy government debt in Germany, will be paying the government to hold THEIR money! Full Story
We know that today’s macroeconomists are very confused about inflation, if only because despite all experience they think they can print money and increase bank credit with a view to generating price inflation at a controlled 2% rate. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 13 March, 2015
Some gold market analysts are noting that sentiment in the sector has probably never been worse. They construe this as an indicator of a bottom in the metal's price and the price of gold mining shares. But in a market as manipulated as the gold market, sentiment has no more meaning than technical analysis does. Full Story
After several years, the Federal Reserve has passed the QE baton to the European Central Bank (ECB) and this should extend the ongoing bull-market in common stocks. You will recall that throughout last year, we were expecting the ECB to unleash a full-scale bond buying program and Mr. Draghi’s recent decision has validated our view. Full Story
My previous posts (part one, two, three) on the structure of the Chinese gold market I started writing a few years ago and additional information has been published in little bits and pieces all over my blog. The time has come for another comprehensive and updated post on the basic mechanics of the Chinese gold market. Full Story
Ben Kramer-Miller, a fundamental gold stock analyst who I keep an eye on, recently had an article at SeekingAlpha called Gold’s Bull Run Has Not Yet Begun. I remember taking note of the title when it came out, but as is usually the case I did not have the time, nor the inclination to read it. I like to keep my own thoughts square and balanced and don’t need other peoples’ thoughts on gold clouding my own. Full Story
Naturally, with the Dow up 260 points yesterday, traders were wondering whether it meant something. The answer is no, it did not — at least, no more than, say, an announcement that Krispy Kreme had figured out a way to make a tasty creme-filled donut with fewer than 150 calories. Technically speaking, one could infer that the rally was bound for 17991 when the closing bell brought a temporary end to the day’s silliness. Full Story
If you’re one of those people who’s scornful of technical analysis, don’t be. Now, I don’t pay much attention to complicated stuff like Elliott Wave or Gann Angles, but there are some very basic technical formations that work reliably most of the time. I had the good fortune of taking out a mortgage when 10-year rates were at 1.9%, which goes to show that the only time you get to top-tick stuff is by accident. Full Story
So to answer your question precisely, for a geologist that wants to start a career, it’s always the ‘first mover’ that gets most of the value. Be a pioneer in an area. We were able to acquire a huge land possession that we control inside the most prolific belt in James Bay. We have hundreds of kilometers of land in James Bay along these prolific volcanic belts. We have found thousands of showings and six deposits so far. Full Story
In the overall scheme of things, how much supply an Apple gold watch soaks up is unlikely to be a game changer compared to other factors influencing the gold supply/demand universe. What makes this announcement very important is something that David Morgan has often discussed in his interviews at Money Metals Exchange and in presentations at conferences across North America. That concept is incremental demand. Full Story
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s Meeting takes place this coming Wednesday, March 18th. The question in front of the Fed is whether or not to remove the word “patient” which would imply a move to begin normalizing interest rates will take place this summer. Gold is impacted by the value of the US Dollar and competing returns on investments. Gold is priced in US Dollars, which means the value of the Dollar impacts the price of gold. The currency war I have been writing about for a couple of years went into full swing this week when the European Central Bank embarked on buying EUR60 billion per month going forward until September 2016. Full Story
We have watched, even marveled at how the U.S. dollar has strengthened since last September. All sorts of theories have been put forth as to “why”. Some have proffered the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt of the bunch. Others believe the interest rate differential is kicking in where dollars at least have a positive interest rate versus negative rates elsewhere. Another theory and one which I have written about in the past and believe to be the main reason for dollar strength is the “margin call” aspect. Full Story
Is the Euro the Titanic? The question may be rhetorical but oddly, there are comparisons. The Euro “set sail” on January 1, 1999 to great fanfare as it replaced the European Currency Unit (ECU) which was a basket of the currencies of the European community (EU). Up until the Euro came into being, the members of the EU continued to use their national currencies. The ECU was an accounting unit only. Only 19 of the 28 EU members use the Euro as currency. Full Story
Frankly, I have no idea what that means. I suppose I could have typed "batten down the hatches", instead. Either way, now's the time to gird/batten. I fear that your faith in gold and silver is about to severely shaken. Why would I say that? As we've documented for months (and before everyone else in the blogosphere, I might add), "sell gold" and "sell yen" have become inexorably linked in the HFT algo-dominated world. What began as a slight correlation 10 years ago morphed into a closer relationship after 2008. It then evolved into an almost straight 1:1 correlation in 2013. Full Story
The markets staged a brief dead cat bounce yesterday. We are coming up on the critical 126-day moving average (DMA), which has acted as support for the S&P 500 multiple times since the beginning of 2014. The one exception of course was the October sell-off, which took stocks to their 280-DMA. The reason for that collapse of course was that the global economy was weakening again. Full Story
Debt is increasing rapidly. Global debt is approximately $200 Trillion and US debt exceeds $18 Trillion. Unfunded liabilities are much higher. Deflationary forces threaten central banks, hence they pump dollars, euros, and yen into the system to levitate the bond and stock markets. Interest rates have been crushed to multi-generational lows to further levitate the bond market and increase bank profitability. Currently the squeeze on the dollar has pushed it into a parabolic rally, and such rallies always correct. When the dollar corrects (crashes), silver and gold prices will benefit from the ensuing financial chaos. Full Story
Would you like your advice from someone who has been successful or from someone who’s failed? I’d prefer to hear from a winner. Now that the gold market has been mauled by a bear, we can sort out the pretenders from the contenders in the mining industry. After all, there’s nothing like a major down cycle to reveal which companies are run by people who know how to prepare for bad weather. Full Story
In this interview with The Gold Report, Tocqueville Asset Management fund managers Doug Groh and John Hathaway say that though gold investors have been through a nuclear winter, the future looks bright as mining companies bask in the glow of lower costs, better exchange rates and a flurry of mergers and acquisitions. Full Story
Do you remember how Lucy always pulled the football each time Charlie Brown tried to kick it? To this day, he's fallen on his rear end and every time while Lucy just snickers. This is exactly what the Federal Reserve has done since late 2009. If you recall, we heard about "green shoots" in the economy and "recovery" has been the watch word ever since. The one word you have not heard and certainly not seen is "expansion". Full Story
As I sit here on Friday morning, beginning this week’s letter, nonfarm payrolls have just come in at a blockbuster 295,000 new jobs, and unemployment is said to be down to 5.5%. GDP is bumping along in the 2%-plus range, right in the middle of my predicted Muddle Through Economy for the decade. US stocks are hitting all-time nominal highs; the dollar is soaring (especially after the jobs announcement); and of course, in response, the Dow Jones is down 100 points as I write because all that good news increases the pressure for a June rate hike. Full Story
The other day, I overheard a conversation among a group of concerned Californians. They were having a debate about how they might be prepared for the next really big earthquake. Full Story
Everybody loves a parade. I sure did when I was a child, but I’m paying attention to a very different type of parade today. The parade that I’m talking about is the long, long parade of businesses in the oil industry that are cutting jobs, laying off staff, and digging deep into economic survival mode. The list of companies chopping staff is long, but two more major players in the oil industry joined the parade last week. Full Story
The broad averages plunged yesterday, and for six hours all seemed right with the world. We were ready for the onslaught despite Monday’s rally because of the technical damage done on Friday. Some important Hidden Pivot supports were exceeded then, hinting of the carnage that has followed. Yesterday (Tuesday), a 1243.50 Hidden Pivot target was exceeded as well, but because the overshoot was just 3.25 points, it’s not yet clear whether sellers are done for the time being. Full Story
At the end of last week, I outlined to you the bearish set up in place for the metals. In fact, I noted how this set up would be “evil in nature, as it would likely hurt the most traders/investors from a psychological standpoint.” From an anecdotal sentiment perspective, before I go into this week’s analysis, I would like to give you a little feedback from this year’s Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) annual convention. Full Story
In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are keeping the stop-loss levels at their current levels, which means that we are effectively keeping some gains locked in and at the same time we’re allowing the profits to increase. Full Story
I’m hard pressed to remember a time where the morale of the Western gold community was much lower than it is now. Regardless, some very good technical and fundamental news for gold enthusiasts has suddenly appeared. To view some of the good news, please see the weekly chart for gold. When the Stochastics oscillator (14,3,3 series) moves below the 20 line, substantial rallies in the gold price tend to follow. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 10 March, 2015
I have always argued that quantitative easing and zero percent interest rates were misguided policies to combat economic weakness. But as the years went on, misguided turned into irresponsible, which led to ridiculous, and then turned into dangerous. But lately, the only word that comes to mind is "surreal." How should we react when central bankers begin to speak like Willie Wonka? Full Story
Two M&A deals have already delivered paydays for investors in junior mining stocks this year: Goldcorp’s half-billion-dollar purchase of Probe Mines in Canada, and Tahoe Resources’ billion-dollar acquisition of Rio Alto Mining, a Peruvian gold producer. Now the arrival of a new, well-capitalized bidder for mining properties—X2 Resources—has raised prospects for more blockbuster deals like last year’s $3-billion takeover of Osisko Mining by Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold. Full Story
Gold and silver are real money, while dollars, euros, and yen are paper substitutes that circulate as currency in place of money. Look at the graph of the ratio of silver to the national debt for the past 20 years. Note the long term rise in the ratio and especially the increase since 9-11. Yes, there has been huge volatility in silver prices as shown by the ratio, but silver and gold – real money – are demonstrating their true value in the face of escalating debt. Full Story
Fifty years ago this weekend, the first U.S. Marines landed in Vietnam; the result of the so-called Gulf of Tonkin attacks – that in hindsight, were likely just as fraudulent as the Bush Administration’s claims that not only did Iraq possess weapons of mass destruction, but directly funded the 9/11 attacks. I’ve spent two decades reading about the horrors of Vietnam, and truly believe it was this fool’s errand, initiated by sociopaths with little regard for the value of human life, that truly marked the beginning of the end of the American empire. By the time the last Marines ignominiously left ten years later, 58,000 American troops were dead, 300,000 were wounded, and the war was lost. Full Story
The February Employment report was a strong +295,000 with unemployment dropping to 5.5%. In Friday’s Market Notes update we highlighted that per BLS this was a services-driven report as the leading edge of the economy, the smaller but key manufacturing and industrial sectors, have begun to decelerate (notably in forward-looking ‘New Orders’). Full Story
John Maynard Keynes once remarked that “A debtor nation does not love its creditor, and it is fruitless to expect feelings of good will.” In the case of the financial arrangement between China and the West including the United States, I might add that the opposite is also true, particularly when that creditor thinks its debtor might be in over its head. Each, though, has learned to live with the other in this complicated and intricate web of debt and money, interlocking national balance sheets and intertwined commercial interests we call the international markets. To not do so is to act against one’s own national interest. Full Story
U.S. tight oil production may fall 600,000 barrels per day by June 2015 based on reasonable projections of current rig counts. I compared the decrease in rig counts that began in late 2014 to the rig count decrease in 2008 and 2009 following the Financial Crisis. I projected current total rig counts according to three scenarios out to June 5, 2015 shown in the chart below. I then applied those decline rates to rig counts and production in the 4 major tight oil plays: the Bakken, D-J Niobrara, Eagle Ford and Permian basin. Full Story
For four months, GDXJ has been playing toe-sies with a 20.83 target that was put in play back in August. While there is always the possibility that this popular junior mining-stock vehicle is about to turn higher, the weight of the visual evidence suggests lower prices are more likely. If so, a 16.54 (!) target would be in play, calculated by sliding the point ‘A’ high of the pattern up to the peak labeled A2 in the chart. The resulting Hidden Pivot at D2, midway between p and D, would be a logical minimum downside objective if 20.83 is decisively breached. Full Story
Let’s step back in time. As we all remember, on January 15th, a surprise decoupling from the euro peg caused the Swiss franc to rally up to 23%, an unprecedented move in the currency market. Why was the peg introduced and later removed? Full Story
Every saver needs an allocation to physical Precious Metals. It’s that simple. Our enormous national debt has to be cleared and will be cleared…one way or another. And the clearing will wreak havoc on our economy, the financial markets, and even our political and social norms. The two great questions are 1) what damage misguided government policies will do on the way to the inevitable, and 2) who will bear the brunt of the pain. Full Story
Seven hundred forty million dollars. That’s how much Bill Gross has reportedly invested of his own cash into the bond fund he manages at Janus Capital Group. The billionaire bond king—who unexpectedly left Pacific Investment Management Company, or PIMCO, in September after a clash with senior management—now owns a little over half of the $1.45 billion fund. Full Story
It’s remarkable that the first we hear of this is exactly one week before the date. You would think that the US hitting its debt limit would actually matter to the mainstream media and financial pundits since we’re already sporting a Debt to GDP ratio of over 100%. Yep, we’re at the level associated with being bankrupt. Check out the vertical leap in debt issuance since the recession ended in 2009. Full Story
Here’s a new term for you to associate all the paper gold created out of thin air around the world every day, putting things in proper perspective – ‘fiat gold’ – gold buy declaration (fiat) – where the banks and financial establishment are able to sell as much fraudulent and unbacked representations of the physical commodity as they please. In case you are not clued in to why they do this – it’s control – maintaining confidence in and control over the Anglo-Western financial system, also known as the status quo – by keeping prices lower. Full Story
I had planned to write about the recent news Andrew Maguire relayed regarding HSBC allegedly closing their seven London gold vaults. I am putting this on hold because other than his word and Ned Naylor-Leyland’s tweets on same, I cannot find any public information confirming this. I will say, if this turns out to be true then the end game has arrived in full force for several obvious and some not so obvious reasons. Stay tuned as we hopefully get some sort of confirmation one way or the other shortly to which I will comment. Full Story
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve and its apologists in Congress and the media have launched numerous attacks on the Audit the Fed legislation. These attacks amount to nothing more than distortions about the effects and intent of the audit bill. Fed apologists continue to claim that the Audit the Fed bill will somehow limit the Federal Reserve’s independence. Yet neither Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen nor any other opponent of the audit bill has ever been able to identify any provision of the bill giving Congress power to dictate monetary policy. The only way this argument makes sense is if the simple act of increasing transparency somehow infringes on the Fed’s independence. Full Story
Gold traders are bullish for a second week on the outlook for increased demand from Asia. The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw withdrawals of 412 metric tons as of February 27. Annualizing that would mean 2,472 metric tons for 2015, an increase of close to 18 percent 2,102 metric tons in 2014. Additionally, imports by India are expected to surge following the government’s decision to maintain current tax rates. Full Story
Day One for quantitative easing at the European Central Bank and the sixth anniversary of the start of the bull market for stocks and predictably bonds rallied and share prices fell. Gold and silver rebounded sharply from what was a blatant central bank intervention to dash prices ahead of the latest round of global money printing. Full Story
T-bonds have gotten trounced since late January, when long-term yields, which vary inversely with price, touched a millennial low of 2.23%. On Friday they spiked as high as 2.87%, reflecting the growing eagerness of investors to reduce their bond exposure ahead of a presumed credit-tightening later this year. But suppose everyone is wrong and the Feed continues to pussyfoot and prevaricate as it’s been doing since the last rate hike, in 2006? Full Story
Gold did almost exactly what we expected in the last update, it bounced from oversold off the support at $1190 - $1200, only to break sharply to new lows on Friday, crushed by the strength of the dollar. We got with the plot and are doing fine with bear ETFs, one of which rose by 22% on Friday alone. The dollar is remarkably strong especially given that its COTs and sentiment readings are already bearish by normal standards, so what is going on? - and where is the dollar headed? Full Story
Most Canadian readers (in particular) will be aware by now of an extremely important trial currently taking place, a lawsuit by a citizens’ action group against the Bank of Canada: COMER vs Bank of Canada. It is extremely important, both in specific and symbolic terms, which is precisely why the Corporate media has totally censored any/all coverage of this legal challenge, which goes to the very heart of the corruption of our current monetary system. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I would like to show you some charts for the PM complex in which we finally got some answers to some pressing questions that needed to be answered. The break below the brown shaded support and resistance zone – double bottom hump on the PM stock indexes, now gives us confirmation that the support zone is now negated and the bears are back in charge. The bulls failed miserably last Friday to defend that most important area and are now in retreat. They may put up a small temporary skirmish over the next several days but that’s all they’ll be able to do. Our job now will be to short into any strength. Full Story
Methinks the continued persistence of the entire speculative crowd ( Hedge Funds, Large Reportables and the General Public) in remaining on the long side of the gold market must be due to excessive exposure to the plethora of gold perma-bull websites. There really is no way to explain this in my view as the charts are quite clear and have been for some time now. Full Story
Goldseek.com Radio is honored to welcome Louise Yamada in her debut appearance on the show. The highly respected market maven correctly predicted the equities bull market. Unlike the stock market price-zenith of 2000, this time share valuations are reasonable - the market is behaving in a more orderly fashion, suggestive of further upside potential. Dr. Faber believes the PBoC may have accumulated thousands of tons of gold bullion reserves, in anticipation of a gold backed Yuan / renminbi. The modus operandi includes the gradual weakening of the Yuan, to the benefit of the manufacturing and exporting sectors, followed by the introduction of a gold-backed currency. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 8 March, 2015
Our friend D.H., who last week called attention to a magazine article written in 1968 by a former Chase Manhattan Bank economist, Michael Hudson, amid the collapse of the London Gold Pool, showing how control of the gold price was the primary mechanism of imperialism - has located another magazine article from that time, an article possibly of even more interest because of its direct connection to international political rivalry. Full Story
There is a story being told to the masses about Chinese gold demand that is grossly incorrect. The huge discrepancy between numbers from the World Gold Council (WGC) and actual gold demand is so wide yet cunningly hidden I must conclude there is essential information about physical gold demand deliberately kept privy. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 8 March, 2015
There’s many good reasons to own silver. However, one of the most important is shown in the chart below. Investors don’t realize the huge problems facing the U.S. and world going forward. While some more enlightened investors understand the upcoming calamity due to our highly leveraged debt-based fiat monetary system, most have no idea just how bad things will get in the future. Full Story
SPECIAL GUEST: PROF. AMIN RAJAN , Chief Executive of CREATE (Centre for Research and Technology in Europe)-Research – A network of prominent researchers undertaking high level advisory assignments for governments, global banks, fund managers, multinational companies and international bodies such as the EU, OECD and ILO. He is a visiting professor at the Centre for Leadership Studies at Exeter University, and an associate fellow at Oxford University’s Said Business School. Full Story
Two weeks ago, we wrote on Banker’s Grip On PMs Not Over, leading off about the Syriza party likely to fold and sell its Greek citizens into more debt servitude, calling the efforts of Tsipras and Varoufakis Kabuki theater, while still a Greek Tragedy for Greek citizens. In one of what has to be German banker’s prouder moments, complaining about how Greece does not want to pay back money loaned, they led the charge demanding Greek compliance with more austerity in the cards. Wake up Germany and other European nations partaking in the artificial patchwork called the European Union. No money was ever loaned to Greece! Full Story
Gold tried to move above the moving averages at $1,220 and failed so that tells of weakness right there and gold ended the week off by 3.75%. After the failed breakout gold went on to form an inverted U pattern or a H before breaking hard Friday. There is some support here at $1,170 and then below at $1,140 but then there isn’t much until the $1,000 level I’ve been talking about now on and off for the past couple years. Full Story
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