For the most part positive fundamentals (for gold mining companies) refers to rising Gold prices. However, this neglects the things under the surface which can affect margins as much as headline prices and in some cases more. In the chart below we plot Gold priced in Canadian Dollars, Gold against Oil and Gold against Industrial Metals. Before we get to the chart let me explain why these ratios are important. Full Story
Welcome, Jim. As you know, Doug Casey and I travel the world surveying crisis markets, and we always like to get your take on things. Today I want to talk to you about Russia, which is a very hated market right now. What are your thoughts on Russia in general and on Russian stocks in particular? Full Story
During a period of polarizing precious metals and industrial commodity pricing, Rick Rule, Chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings was kind enough to share a few comments—opining on global counterparty risk, resource capital markets, capitulation, and more. When I asked for his expectation of a final capitulation sell-off in resource markets, Rick noted that, “We came close last October. There were some moments of absolute panic…but we didn’t follow through with a capitulation… Capitulation usually follows a protracted period of diminished volume… [and] I have never seen a bear market in the juniors end without [one].” Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 13 February, 2015
Gold’s sharp early-year surge has fizzled in recent weeks as investment demand faded. The primary reason is the universal belief that the Fed’s upcoming rate hikes are very bearish for gold. Higher rates will make zero-yielding gold relatively less attractive, argues this popular thesis. But history proves just the opposite. Gold actually thrives in rising- and higher-rate environments, so rate hikes are nothing to fear. Full Story
Jim Willie, “Hat Trick Letter” Latest article: Acceleration of Events with Rising Chaos Rudi Fronk, Chairman & CEO Seabridge Gold Inc. [NYSE: SA | TSX: SEA] Gianni Kovacevic "My Electrician Drives a Porsche?" Full Story
The day after the World Gold Council (WGC) released Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2014 in which they audaciously pretend Chinese gold demand last year was 814 tonnes, we can read from the Chinese SGE trade report of week 5 withdrawals from the vaults have been 59 tonnes. Year to date (– February 6) withdrawals from the vaults of the central bourse in China stand at 315 tonnes. In perspective, during the first five weeks of 2015 Chinese wholesale demand has been 39 % of what the WGC disclosed as total consumer demand in all of 2014. Full Story
One of the most compelling ratios describing the true nature of the current economic-financial state of affairs is the current relationship between labor force participation and corporate profits. Full Story
On Friday 6th February the American Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment estimates for January, which being better than the market expected, caused Treasury bond yields to rise and precious metals to be marked sharply lower. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 13 February, 2015
Robert Wenzel of the Economic Policy Journal notes today that the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has withdrawn its publicity for a 2011 study by the economists Michael D. Bordo, Owen F. Humpage, and Anna J. Schwartz that is critical of the U.S. government's increasingly frequent intervention in the currency markets from 1962 to 1973. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 February, 2015
Short-term, all signs continue to point lower. Although we’ve been using a Hidden Pivot support at 1206.10 as a minimum downside objective, the larger-degree pattern shown, with an 1199.50 target, suggests the next swoon could do a little more damage. Although it would not destroy the still-corrective look of the selloff from the 1308.80 peak recorded on January 22, it would exceed an external low at 1205.50 to create a fresh, bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. Full Story
Sharp-edged Risk with a capital "R" has returned to the financial world as a result of Greek voters in overwhelming numbers electing the far left Syriza party and installing Alexis Tsipras as the new prime minister. The investment world had in some ways grown placid since 2012, the days when the financial woes of the heavily indebted and economically troubled PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece & Spain) dominated global financial headlines, and when a possible Greek default last threatened to bring down the financial world. Full Story
The financial world focuses far too much on stocks. Today, the market is roaring higher… for no real reason. Nothing substantial has come out of the EU talks with Greece. And the world has much bigger problems to deal with than Greece. The US Dollar carry trade is over $9 trillion in size. This means that over $9 trillion has been borrowed (in US Dollars) and plunged into various asset classes and investment projects around the world. Full Story
As the Specs in paper gold rapidly exit the "market" and this current rinse cycle ends, from where might gold find a turnaround and rally? Two weeks ago, we projected that the area between $1220 and $1235 would be about right. Is that still the case? Full Story
It’s PEACE! Russia and Ukraine have reached another cease fire agreement (maybe their 5th?) which will begin Sunday. Let’s see if this one holds? Ukraine cannot continue hostilities without the U.S. supplying them. What will U.S. reaction to this agreement be? Full Story
Despite some improvement from their November/December 2014 lows, gold stocks remain depressed. I use the word depressed because that is the only way one can describe it even though the gold stocks as represented by the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) are up a stellar 28% since those lows. One is always reminded that the HUI remains down 70% from the highs of 2011 even if one would like to forget that fact. For the record, the TSX Gold Index (TGD) is up over 39% from its November low but remains down 60% from its 2011 highs. The relative stronger performance of the TGD to the HUI is most likely due to the decline of the Cdn$ during that period. Full Story
I am a sometimes gold bug and hard-money advocate, and a hard-core fiscal conservative. I have a pretty bearish outlook on the markets, I am generally skeptical of company management and especially journalists, and I think most investors, even the professional ones, are clueless. Full Story
Forecasting is a singularly difficult task and is more often than not fraught with failure. The Federal Reserve has some of the smartest economists in the world, and yet their forecasts are so wrong so often (as in, they almost never get it right) that some have pointed out that it’s almost statistically impossible to be as bad as the Fed. Yet they continue to issue such forecasts and to base economic and monetary policy on them. Go figure. Full Story
Can we finally lay to rest any notion that anything at all trades on fundamentals? Stocks? Please, how can anyone possibly explain the valuations of some of these tech entities? There isn’t a text book ever written that anyone can find that will justify where these tech “darlings” are trading, with one notable exception. Full Story
When TV characters like the Fonz earn big bucks to promote reverse mortgages, you know the scheme must be profitable for the banking industry. I get it, folks. If you’re considering a reverse mortgage you may feel as though you’ve run out of options. That’s why the Miller’s Money Forever team wrote The Reverse Mortgage Guide—to help seniors protect their wealth. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 12 February, 2015
In 2014 gold performed roughly as expected in US$ terms during the first half of the year, but then fell to a new bear-market low during the second half. The problems for the US$ gold price during the second half of 2014 were the perceived strength of the US economy (linked to the continuing upward trend in the S&P500 Index), the flattening of the US yield-curve (related to the perceived US economic strength), and the Dollar Index's upside breakout from a long-term basing pattern. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 February, 2015
As the global financial system continues to disintegrate under the weight of massive debt and hyper monetary printing, investors choose to purchase a great deal more silver than gold. While this trend continued to get stronger over the past several years, it hit a record high ratio in February. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 February, 2015
Like Casey, GATA doesn't believe in "conspiracy theories" either. Casey is the only one talking about "theories" here. When documents and public admissions show governments and central banks meeting secretly to develop and implement a course of action toward gold, we believe in conspiracy fact, while the clients of Casey Research are left with nothing but Casey's omniscience. Full Story
For centuries, if not millennia, the concept of financial “calm” had a patently obvious, nearly objective, definition. Which was, for the most part, steady economic activity; modest market volatility; and, for the most part, no major cataclysms – either perceived or actual. Sure, stocks had big moves – both up and down. However, within a largely free-market environment, such moves were neither worrisome nor particularly impactful on other business sectors; let alone, assets classes, global economics, or sovereign stability. Full Story
During a time of currency volatility and returning strength in precious metals, Eric Sprott, Chairman of Sprott Inc. was kind enough to share a few comments. Regarding currencies, Eric noted that “I’m kind of shocked that the most volatile sector of the financial market right now is the currencies… it really should be bonds or stocks, but it now seems to be currencies.” Full Story
As you know, I am in the camp that the West, led by the U.S. is and has been pushing for war. War to create more debt for the banks to skim from, and to retain/prolong the power of dollar hegemony. I also believe China is not looking for a war and neither is Mr. Putin and Russia. If they were, I believe there was enough provocation over one year ago with Syria and over the last year as sanction after sanction has been implemented. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 February, 2015
What's left of Canada's Social Credit movement has brought a lawsuit challenging the operation of the country's monetary and banking systems, and apparently the powers that be are having a hard time getting the lawsuit dismissed. Full Story
Please send us your questions including: Your gold, silver, geo-political questions for Jim Willie Your questions on copper for Gianni Kovacevic Questions on Seabridge Gold Inc. Full Story
After over three years of this corrective market action, I am sure those bullishly inclined are worn to the nub. I am sure you have completely run out of patience. I would not be surprised if you have even yelled at your charts, screen, or investment account at one time or another due to the market action in the metals over the last 3 years. Full Story
Investors are starting to feel numb by the lack of action in the broad market. Since December, the Dow and SPX have settled into sideways trading ranges. The NYSE Composite (NYA) has been range-bound since last summer while the Russell 2000 (RUT) has been stuck in a lateral ranges for the past year. While trading ranges don’t necessarily result in the loss of capital, its effect on the minds of market participants tend to be significant. Trading ranges are frustrating. When trading ranges become established over a period of months the effects upon investor and mass psychology can even be devastating. Full Story
The stock market has developed a new type of love-hate relationship with the price of oil. In the past, falling oil prices were treated as an economic positive because they freed up more money for Americans to spend on other things, such as dining out or clothing. However, the steep plunge in oil prices has triggered a reverse-psychology reaction on Wall Street: falling oil prices are bad because they signal a slowing global economy. Full Story
Yesterday we looked at the situations in both Ukraine and Greece, and how they are both out of money which makes them potential “flash points” for reality to set in. What I’d like to talk about today are the various “slights of hand” and why a spade can never be called a spade. Full Story
The bigger story concerns Europe, particularly Greece, where the crisis has finally evolved from finance and banking into politics. Previously each round of negotiations regarding Greek bailouts involved politicians who derived all of their power from bankers and the financial elite. As a result, all previous negotiations ended in the banks being propped up while the Greek economy imploded. Full Story
All gold community eyes should be on the month of March, for three key reasons. First, London is the world’s largest gold trading centre. The LBMA sets the price with a “fix” that is created by bank traders, using telephones. There are two problems with the traditional London price fixing mechanism. First, there is a lack of transparency. Second, the bank bids and asks don’t necessarily reflect mine and scrap supply, or investment and jewellery demand. Full Story
Don’t believe the lies or trust that unbacked debt based paper currencies will survive (they never do). Learn from the lessons of history – gold and silver have been money for thousands of years. The western world currently has amnesia about the true nature of money. Asia has not forgotten the value of gold and silver. Full Story
So, is Russia heading to a new 1998 crisis? Public finances are in relatively good shape, so the government default is not as probable as in the late 1990s (so far). However, Russia is entering into a full-blown financial crisis with banks and companies’ defaults (which may entail a sovereign debt crisis in the future). A crisis caused by the falling ruble and following balance sheet problems, just as in 1998, when private banks as well as the state bank collapsed. Full Story
Recently, a number of gold commentators have written that they do not see a significant decline in the stock market over the next year or so because the Fed will step in with further easing to prevent a rout. The perception is that the Fed can still save the stock market when it wants to. We disagree. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 9 February, 2015
Once again the crisis in Greece is threatening the unity of the entire euro zone. Many analysts are asking what must be done to restore viability to the Union's weakest link. Lost in this discussion is that modern Greece, formed in 1830, has never really been required to stand on its own. Generations of support from abroad, typically given for strategic reasons, has created a false sense of prosperity in the country and has prevented the Greeks from accepting the realities of their current situation. Full Story
What is not often covered in the media or blogosphere are the audits of the US official gold reserves stored at the US Mint, which is the custodian for 95 % (7716 tonnes) of the stash – also referred to as deep storage, and at the Federal Reserve Bank Of New York that safeguards the remaining 5 % (418 tonnes). The lawful owner of the US official gold reserves is the US Treasury. Full Story
After a long and relentless decline, the Crude market has finally enabled us to anchor its Cycles. Up until 2 weeks ago, Crude was locked in a clear crash Cycle, which made it impossible to expect anything other than a continuation of the crash. But now that Crude has reversed with a 20% rally, its moves are clearly the start of a new intermediate term Cycle. Full Story
Who could forget those piercing words shouted out from the Titanic’s Captain Smith as he gave the command “abandon ship – its every man for himself”, as it became obvious all was lost. To just about everybody’s amazement, the unsinkable Titanic was going under, and there was nothing the crew or engineers could do about it. Fast forward to today, and this makes for some powerful imagery when put against our supposedly unsinkable modern day fiat currency economies – bubble economies that only those as delusional as those thinking the Titanic could not sink would dare to characterize as stable – steady as she goes. Full Story
The ISM PMI reports for December and January showed deceleration in line with our view that a persistently strong US dollar would begin to eat away at US manufacturing, exporters and other companies that depend on significant foreign business. But in an age where investors will bid up Twitter* (with its forward P/E of 141 and 30B market cap to 1.2B revenue) by 16% in a day, are we returning to the old days of ‘PE’s don’t matter’ with the hook or tout being ‘it’s all about ad revenue’? Full Story
Collateral damage. Unintended consequences. Friendly fire. Certainly no one intended to have a global banking meltdown when they let Lehman Bros. go under. Now we’re watching another Greek drama that could have significant unintended consequences – far beyond anything the market has priced in today. Then again, maybe not. Maybe the market is right this time. When we enter unknown territory, who knows what we will find? Fertile valleys and treasure, or deserts and devastation? Today we look at the situation in Europe and ponder what we don’t know. Greece provides a wonderful learning opportunity. Full Story
The latest CFTC Bank Participation Report brings the usual horrors and it confirms our "inherently unfair" thesis. However, there's also a bigger picture that gold investors everywhere need to consider. Full Story
January saw the largest inflows in gold ETFs since the summer of 2012. Part of the allure has been the fact that interest rates in many countries around the world are now negative, a consequence of central banks’ easing policies. For example, the value of outstanding European government bonds that have a negative yield is now over €1.5 trillion. Full Story
Today's obvious mispricing of sovereign bonds is a bonanza for spending politicians and allows over-leveraged banks to build up their capital. This mispricing has gone so far that negative interest rates have become common: in Denmark, where the central bank persists in holding the krona peg to a weakening euro, it is reported that even some mortgage rates have gone negative, and high quality corporate bonds such as a recent Nestlé euro bond issue are also flirting with negative yields. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 9 February, 2015
Nearly six years into a supposed economic recovery, the Great Recession persists for most Americans. Payroll statistics released Friday would have us believe the economy is heating up, but how can this be so? Both statistical and anecdotal evidence directly contradict a rosy “official” picture that has fixated increasingly on brisk growth in McJobs, and on a boom in car sales that would not exist in the absence of ultra-easy credit and cut-rate leases. Full Story
Dr. Malkiel: The author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street outlines his most recent Wall Street Journal article on US equities. David Morgan: The Silver Investor and host discuss how gold priced in Rubles skyrocketed 100% in a few weeks with virtually no warning. Peter Eliades: US stocks are overvalued. Fixed income investors have been forced to chase dividend yield. John Williams: The dollar rally will fade, leading to the next financial crisis. Actual domestic GDP was stagnant in the third quarter. Full Story
If oil has put in an intermediate cycle bottom like I believe it has, then it should rally for at least 4-6 weeks before topping and moving back down. And if the tight inverse correlation with the dollar holds, that suggests that the dollar is about to take a breather for a few weeks and move down into it’s own intermediate degree correction. Full Story
Industry experts assembled in the Almas Tower at the Jumeirah Lake Towers in the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre today for the second annual Global Commodity Outlook Conference with the recent oil price collapse uppermost in their minds, and very few solid views on where the price would be going next. The same was also true for industrial and agricultural commodity prices in general. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 8 February, 2015
After the price of gold fell to a new low in November, total U.S. gold exports jumped 40% compared to the previous month. When the USGS released their October Gold Mineral Industry Survey, total gold exports that month were the second highest of the year. Full Story
How are all them facts and figures about gold/silver accumulation by China, Russia, India, et al, shortages at the COMEX, LMBA for delivery of the [non-existent]physical metal, drainage of GLD, unprecedented public demand for coins, accompanied by pretty graphs and charts, working out? Full Story
My way of interpreting this is what the consensus of the market seems to have become today – one more strong month of job growth, especially upward pressure on wages, and we are going to get our first hike. That is going to make things very rough for gold moving forward. It will still garner some support over the current turmoil in Europe, and perhaps over the occasional geopolitical uncertainty that crops up from time to time, but if, and this is a big “IF”, the jobs picture shows further consistency moving forward, gold is going to be in for a great deal of overhead resistance. Full Story
Usually their charts match up pretty well but silver had a decidedly bearish chart while gold had a bullish chart and this was confusing. Gold had been leading so I weighed in golds favour and remained bullish and even took a small long position in a miner ETF as it broke out Thursday but that opened with a gap lower Friday which saw me take my losses quickly before they grew and they would have. Full Story
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