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Weekly Archive

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT - 13 November, 2015

Last Friday we wrote that precious metals were very oversold and due for a bounce or a pause. We also argued that the overall prognosis remained very bearish. The technicals argue for more downside and sentiment indicators remain far from bearish extremes. The strength in the US$ index is another reason precious metals should remain under pressure. If the US$ index makes a strong break above 100 it could trigger a final wave of liquidation in Gold and Silver. Full Story

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 13 November, 2015

Gold stocks have suffered heavy collateral damage following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish surprise late last month, which ignited enormous gold-futures selling by American speculators. This devastated sector has been battered back down near last summer’s deep secular lows. But these gold-stock price levels are fundamentally absurd, the product of extreme and irrational sentiment that can’t persist for long. Full Story

By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 13 November, 2015

Nearly 92% of economists surveyed this week by the Wall Street Journal expect that our eight-year experiment with unprecedented monetary easing from the Federal Reserve will come to an end at the next Fed meeting in December. Since we have had the monetary wind at our back for so many years, at least a few have begun to question our ability to make economic and financial gains against actual headwinds. But in reality, the tightening cycle that the forecasters are waiting for actually started last year. Sadly, the markets and the economy are already showing an inability to handle it. Full Story

By: Justin Spittler - 13 November, 2015

The oil price crash continues to claim victims…and many of them are in Canada. The price of oil hovered around $100 for most of last summer. Today, it’s trading for less than $45. Weak oil prices have pummeled huge oil companies. The SPDR SPX Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP), which tracks the performance of major U.S. oil producers, has declined 36% over the past year. The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH), which tracks U.S. oil services companies, has declined 30% since last November. Full Story

By: Arkadiusz Sieron - 13 November, 2015

Although the bond prices do not drive the price of gold, the spreads between prices of bonds or yields – the different sides of one coin – with different risk level may be an important factor for the gold market. Why? Credit spread is a spread between two securities that are almost identical, except for quality rating. Because Treasuries are considered practically risk-free, they constitute a benchmark to which other bonds are compared. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 13 November, 2015

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: James Turk and Chris Waltzek Full Story

By: Puru Saxena - 13 November, 2015

The global economy is slowing down rapidly and it is conceivable that the developed world may face a recession next year. Already, the Japanese economy is contracting and even Europe is barely growing. Across the pond, the US is still muddling through but the leading economic indicators and all the major Fed regional activity surveys (Figure 1) are suggesting economic weakness ahead. Full Story

By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 13 November, 2015

One popular explanation is that the Fed’s Quantitative Easing (QE) adds to bank reserves, but not the economy-wide money supply. According to this line of thinking, the ‘money’ created by the Fed to purchase bonds remains trapped in reserve accounts at the Fed. However, this explanation can be immediately eliminated, because as previously explained every dollar of QE adds one dollar to bank reserves at the Fed AND one dollar to demand deposits within the economy. The fact is that the economy-wide money supply is now a few trillion dollars larger thanks to the Fed’s QE. Full Story

By: Jared Dillian - 13 November, 2015

As you probably heard by now, Neel Kashkari was named president of the Minneapolis Fed. Ordinarily, when a regional Federal Reserve bank gets a new president, it is not national news. Patrick Harker at the Philly Fed—crickets. But Neel Kashkari is something of a celebrity. Most recently, he ran for governor of California. He had some good ideas that didn’t involve raising state income taxes to exorbitant levels. He even beat incumbent Governor Jerry Brown so badly at their only debate that Brown refused to participate in any more debates. Full Story

By: Jeffrey Nichols - 13 November, 2015

Despite increasingly strong supply/demand fundamentals, gold prices have continued to tread water – more or less within a narrow $100 range – having hit overhead resistance a few weeks ago near $1175 and now testing support near $1075 an ounce. For the past year or two, financial-market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate policies – driven by the day-to-day flow of economic news and pronouncements by various Federal Reserve officials – have been the single-most important determinant of day-to-day fluctuations in the price of gold and the longer multi-year correction in the metal’s price. Full Story

By: Gary Tanashian - 13 November, 2015

During August and September market sentiment had become brutally over bearish and this was very dangerous from the bears’ perspective. We set upside bounce targets for the SPX at 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2100. The first three were resistance levels (broken support) and the last was the general measurement of the ‘W’ bottom that formed in August and September. With the extremes in bearish sentiment, it was not so surprising that SPX climbed all the way to just above 2100. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 13 November, 2015

Rising physical silver investment demand will put a record squeeze on North American supply this year. Since 2001, the United States and Canada have experience two opposite trends… surging official silver coins sales on the back of plummeting domestic mine supply. Full Story

By: John Mauldin - 13 November, 2015

One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right to the top of my reading list. Not only is it always full of generally brilliant investment counsel, Howard is also a really great writer. He has an easy style that pulls you through his letter effortlessly. Full Story

By: Tony Sagami - 13 November, 2015

Last week, I wrote about the massive pollution problems in China and the gigantic investment opportunity in the cleanup. However, China is a volatile, dangerous place to invest, and there is a wrong way and a right way to do so. Where do you stand on the Chinese economic debate? Is the China economy decelerating so fast that it will pull the rest of the global economy down with it? Or do you think that the reports of China’s economic death are greatly exaggerated? Full Story

By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com - 12 November, 2015

As the bear market in gold concludes, mining majors and investors alike are focusing on only the most promising deposits in the most stable regions with strong management teams backing them up. Gold Standard Ventures (AMEX: GSV | TSV-V: GSV), with its multitude of gold deposits on mining-friendly Nevada’s Carlin Trend, could well fit the bill. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 12 November, 2015

The UK started exporting gold directly to China in April 2014 when it shipped 5 tonnes to the mainland while for the first time bypassing Switzerland and Hong Kong. In total the UK net exported 114 tonnes to China in 2014. Year to date the UK has already net exported 210 tonnes of gold to China, annualized a whopping 280 tonnes, which would be 146 % more than last year. The exodus of gold from the West to the East is still in full swing. Full Story

By: Bill Holter - 12 November, 2015

My e-mail box has been filled up this week with panicked owners of gold and "trolls", it is sometimes hard to decipher which is which. I say this because the logic being employed is in some cases panic driven and in others just plain flawed, but similar nonetheless. Some who own gold assets have come to the mindset that even though they know precious metals are manipulated, they fear it will "go on forever". The same goes even for some of the leaders in the gold community, weak knees abound. The bottom line is this, once the last once of deliverable gold is received, the game will end. Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 12 November, 2015

Paper and digital currency based on debt – which we pretend is money – is a flawed system. A flawed system, some would say a fraudulent system, will eventually crash. $27 Billion daily increase in debt is a strong indication that much is deeply wrong in the global financial system. Perhaps its expiration date is near. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 12 November, 2015

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: John Williams and Chris Waltzek Full Story

By: Peter Schiff - 12 November, 2015

After a year of anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, all eyes are on the Fed’s December meeting. There are two obvious outcomes: the Fed does raise interest rates or it does not. In his November Gold Videocast, Peter Schiff explains why both scenarios are bullish for gold. Peter points to the behavior of gold under both Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker as proof that a rising interest rate environment isn’t automatically bearish for the yellow metal. On the other hand, if the Fed continues to delay raising interest rates, investors will begin to realize their expectations were ill-founded and reconsider their positions in gold and silver. Full Story

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis - 12 November, 2015

In a follow up to last week's excerpt from out recent Q&A with Ted Bulter, questions were asked warehouse movement in other commodities and about the big ETF... Are you seeing the frantic movement of metal in other commodities markets? Do you believe the ETF’s are actually backed by physical metal? Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 November, 2015

Yes, our little nonprofit educational and civil rights organization may need a bit more time to overthrow all the central banks -- the creators of infinite money, the wielders of infinite power in secret -- and thereby establish free and transparent markets and restore limited and accountable government in the civilized world. If mere sentiment made any difference in the face of that power, we in GATA might almost write despairing farewell notes and shoot ourselves tonight so that we could become the decisive contrarian indicators and thereby assure the success of our cause. Full Story

By: Rambus - 12 November, 2015

Tonight I would like to update some of the charts on the possible inflection point we looked at about three weeks or so ago. That possible inflection point is still gaining momentum to the downside as the deflationary environment still looks good to go. No market goes straight up or down so one needs to expect some turbulence along the way. Full Story

By: Dave Kranzler - 11 November, 2015

The Dow/SPX 500 indices are currently more overvalued relative to underlying fundamentals than at any time in the history of the U.S. stock market. This especially true if you weed out the non-cash net income “adjustments” companies are now allowed to pile into their GAAP income statements in order to puff up their earnings per share facade. Full Story

By: Graham Summers - 11 November, 2015

We are often told that the global economy is strong… that fears of a contraction are overblown… that China is still an engine for economic growth… and that the US has detached from the turbulence in the Emerging Market space. If the above claims are true, then economically sensitive assets should be rallying as global demand propels them to higher prices. Full Story

By: Sol Palha - 11 November, 2015

Is the Fed playing mind games with the masses or is it simply another version of Britney Spears hit song “Oops I did it again”? Only this time they did not. They keep mouthing off that they are ready to raise rates and then suddenly just before the moment to pull the trigger draws near; some unforeseeable event springs up, and they kick the can down the road again. Two questions comes to mind. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 11 November, 2015

The largest ever gold deposit in China has been found in the East China Sea, near the Sanshan Islands in the Shandong province, at a depth of 2,000 meters, the People’s Daily Online reported on Tuesday. The Shandong Provincial No. 3 Institute of Geological and Mineral Survey announced on Monday the massive gold deposit in the sea near the city of Laizhou holds 470.47 tonnes of gold. The vice director of the Shandong Provincial No. 3 Institute, Ding Zhengjiang, said the gold deposit is part of a belt that lies deep at the sea bottom. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner - 11 November, 2015

Many people agree that it’s important to move to a free market in money (i.e. the gold standard). They also say that it’s just as important to fight bad taxes and regulation. In their view, government interference in the economy is like friction in a car. The more friction you add, the slower the car goes. One source of friction is much the same as any other. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 11 November, 2015

For the last 4 years, we have heard most analysts and pundits call the end to the metals correction, only to see the market head lower. And, many of them have done so many times. However, if the market takes a direct route to the lower levels we have been targeting for the last several years then I may finally be calling the bottom myself for the first time. While I will still be looking for “confirmation” with a 5 wave structure off those lows to be more certain, I am going to be viewing the next lower lows as potentially ending this 4+ year correction. Full Story

By: JL Yastine - 10 November, 2015

A commodity-trader friend of mine uses a colorful bit of slang to describe his behavior (and that of his trader brethren) whenever a large hedge fund finds itself trapped in a big wrong-way bet on the markets… He calls it “circling the whale.” According to my friend, the wooden-ship whalers of the 18th and 19th centuries — having sunk an iron harpoon into some unfortunate sperm whale — didn’t move in for the kill immediately. They knew it was in trouble — better to do nothing, lie back and wait for the inevitable. Full Story

By: Stewart Thomson - 10 November, 2015

In the short term, gold and related items have a rough general tendency to decline into the US jobs report, and then to rally in the days (and weeks in some cases) following the release of that report. Double-click to enlarge. That’s the daily chart for Barrick, and it’s rallying nicely, on “post jobs report cue”. There’s a beautiful inverse head and shoulders bottom in play, with the decline ahead of the jobs report creating the right shoulder of the pattern. Full Story

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis - 10 November, 2015

Today's topic is silver prices and options expiration. It's somewhat timely and that we're seeing a certain amount of market volatility. I don't think it's necessarily related to options expiration this week, although this week was an option's expiration. The FOMC meeting probably had more to do with what we're seeing right now in terms of the market action. Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 10 November, 2015

The Silly Season – the Elect a President Cycle – is upon us. We pretend the candidates matter and care about the American public and their values, we pretend the election is important, and we forget that the outcome is heavily influenced and/or controlled by Wall Street and the Military. Full Story

By: Jeff Thomas - 10 November, 2015

In the early 2000’s, there were those economists and investors who believed that the US was headed for an economic fall – that the repeal of the Glass Steagall Act in 1999 would allow the financial institutions to enter into widespread reckless loan practices that would lead to a housing crash. And that that crash would lead to a stock market crash that would herald in The Great Unravelling – The Greater Depression. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner - 10 November, 2015

The price of gold dropped abruptly Friday morning (Arizona time). How much of a drop? $10.30, as measured by the bid on the December future. How abruptly? That move happened in under a second. At first, the price of gold in the spot market did not react. This caused what looks like a massive backwardation (recall that the cobasis = Spot(bid) – Future(ask)—if the future drops relative to spot, that is backwardation). See the graph of price overlaid with the Dec cobasis. Full Story

By: Plunger - 10 November, 2015

That’s where it appears we are now, the final drive to the bottom. Rambus’ weekend charts still show how bearish the PM charts are and it will take a lot of work to turn them around and get them pointed back up, Having said that I see the initial components we should expect to see of a bottom and turn entering into the picture. Call these pathway elements as they come before the bottom and take a bit of time to have their effect of bringing about the turn. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 10 November, 2015

By most standards, October was an explosive month, with domestic equities recording their biggest monthly gains in four years. But the most exciting news was that the global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading for the month of October rocketed up to 51.4, almost a point higher than September’s 50.7. Not only does this represent the strongest monthly surge in nearly two years, but the index shot above its three-month moving average for the first time since March. Full Story

By: Captain Hook - 9 November, 2015

Anybody who did not heed our warning last week that stocks could rip higher into November is hurting big time if short. It was the combination of promised QE by the ECB, a rate cut in China, and better than expected earnings by key bubble stocks in the US – boom boom boom (not the John Lee Hooker variety) – Bob's your uncle – that did the job. Now, what we have is a technical picture that suggests new highs in the US broads are not just possible, but quite likely, given there’s no way record short positions have covered all their positions in such a short period of time. Full Story

By: Dan Steinhart - 9 November, 2015

I've been involved in almost every area of investing you could think of. I've worked for hedge funds. I ran a fund of hedge funds where we invested in other hedge funds that were investing in the stock market. I've run a venture capital firm. I'm an angel investor, meaning I personally invest in about 30 different companies that are currently private. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 9 November, 2015

Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, a number by which we can measure Chinese wholesale gold demand, accounted for 47 tonnes in week 42 (26 – 30 October 2015). Strangely, this is a weak number if we compare it to the rest of this year. Still, 47 tonnes of gold equals 47,000 one-kilogram bars, or 3,760 London Good Delivery bars – withdrawn from the vaults in just one week. Full Story

By: Graham Summers - 9 November, 2015

The US Dollar rally, combined with the ECB’s policies and the Fed’s hint at raising rates in December, is at risk of blowing up a $9 trillion carry trade. When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008, it flooded the system with US Dollars. The US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. NO matter what country you’re in (with few exceptions) you can borrow in US Dollars. Full Story

By: Bill Holter - 9 November, 2015

This past Friday the BLS released another "whopper" set of employment numbers. The economy supposedly created 271,000 new jobs. I was fortunate to be able to speak with John Williams (I encourage you to subscribe to his service at www.shadowstats.com) and asked him two questions. First, with the current backdrop of an extremely weak global economy, how was this whopping big number generated? Mr. Williams believes the "seasonal adjustment" has been an extreme outlier this month and last, a seasonal adjustment of near 70,000 jobs were added. Full Story

By: Gary Tanashian - 9 November, 2015

Now that we have played it straight with a conventional look at the October payrolls, let’s add in a little context, again with the aid of FloatingPath, and while doing so let’s also consider that with the Fed expected to raise interest rates, yields are rising across the spectrum. A credit-fueled economy needs what… Beuller? Cheaply accessible and expanding credit. Rising interest rates do what? Anyone? They restrict access to cheap and expanding credit. Is this sustainable? Full Story

By: Sol Palha - 9 November, 2015

We prepared our subscribers for the market pullback; crash if you believe the naysayers, well in advance of the event. While they chanted from the top of their lungs that the end of was close at hand, we broadcasted an opposing message. We welcomed this carnage phase and recognized for what it truly was; opportunity is knocking in disguise and refused to fall for this silly ploy. The same monotonous theme has been repeated decade after decade with the same miserable consequence, one that is bound to bring you one step closer to the dog house. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 9 November, 2015

Gold and platinum were the strongest of the four precious metals this week with just a couple of basis points separating the two in what was a tough market for the precious metals sector as a whole. The stronger-than-expected change in nonfarm payrolls released on Friday likely sets the Federal Reserve on a path to an interest rate hike in December, unless significant economic news turns the tables. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner - 9 November, 2015

What’s the difference between the Supply and Demand Report 1 November and the Supply and Demand Report 8 November? Just a minor punctuation change. Last week, we asked (rhetorically) if silver would have a 14 handle again. Full Story

By: Ron Paul - 9 November, 2015

Last week Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinted that the Federal Reserve Board will increase interest rates at the board’s December meeting. The positive jobs report that was released following Yellen’s remarks caused many observers to say that the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate increase in almost a decade is practically inevitable. Full Story

By: JS Kim - 9 November, 2015

The only aspect of this 3-pronged program, however, that I deem trustworthy at this point, until proven otherwise, are the gold coin and bullion selling program. Why? The answer is simple. The other 2-aspects of this 3-pronged program advocate against our advice at SmartKnowledgeU to specifically hold all of your physical gold outside of the global banking system. Both the gold monetization scheme and the gold-backed bond scheme require depositing physical gold at a bank and receiving digital credits and paper in return. Full Story

By: Alasdair Macleod - 9 November, 2015

Since the 1980s, markets have had to adapt to a world of infinite credit. Of course, this credit has not been available to everyone: it has been principally deployed in favour of governments, financial markets, and big business. It amounts to a cartel, planned or unplanned, a partnership between banks and government that dominates and controls previously free markets. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 8 November, 2015

Summary:
Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors.
The discussion begins with the news from South America, that the Venezuelan government has plans to sell the national gold stockpile.
President and Director of Goldsource Mines (GXS.V), Yannis Tsitos makes his show debut.
Peter Spina has chosen his firm as the top PMs stock opportunity of 2016.
With close to 30 years to perfect his work, President Tsitos knows how to turn a small mining company into a world-class operation. Full Story

By: Clive Maund - 8 November, 2015

The predictions made in the recent past for the dollar to rally and gold and silver to drop have proven to be correct. Gold has now dropped for 8 days in a row as we can see on its 3-month chart below, which common sense dictates is increasing the chances of a bounce soon, especially as Commercial short positions eased significantly last week and gold is arriving at a support level in an oversold condition. Gold is oversold relative to its moving averages, which are in bearish alignment. Full Story

By: Ed Steer - 8 November, 2015

The gold price rallied about six bucks by around 2:30 p.m. Hong Kong time on their Friday afternoon—and then gave about half of that back going into the job numbers. As expected, JPMorgan et al showed up—and the only thing we can be thankful for is that the pounding wasn’t worse than it was, as I was expecting at least double that amount, if not more. The low tick came just before the equities markets opened in New York—and it rallied a few dollars into the London p.m. gold fix, then didn’t do much after that. Full Story

By: John Mauldin - 8 November, 2015

Every now and then you get some good news. Economists had projected a good solid 185,000 new jobs, with the range of expectations running from a low of 150,000 to a high of 240,000. What we got was a boffo 271,000 jobs. Plus some green shoots of potential actual wage-push inflation, the kind of inflation pressure that most workers like, which means that, for a change, wages might start going up faster than inflation. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 8 November, 2015

Much to my surprise speakers at the LBMA conference in Vienna (held from 18 until 20 October 2015) have been discussing how gold round tripping and gold leasing in China inflates withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). These Chinese Commodity Financing Deals (CCFDs), which gold round tripping and gold leasing can be labeled as, were presented at the conference as the explanation for the huge difference between SGE withdrawals and Chinese consumer gold demand as disclosed by the World Gold Council (WGC). Full Story

By: Warren Bevan - 8 November, 2015

From my chair, I think we’ve entered another buy the dip market just now, so I am holding strong my good positions and looking to buy dips, so if you’ve missed the moves thus far, many stocks are giving you a second chance. Last weekend I mentioned the metals were showing failed breakouts, which is never good, and often leads to a breakdown, and that is what we saw in the metals this week so let’s see where support lies now. Full Story




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