By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 13 November, 2009
As the unemployment rate crossed the double digit barrier for the first time since Michael Jackson learned to moonwalk, President Obama announced that he will convene a “jobs summit” to finally bring the problem under control. Using all the analytic skill that his administration can muster, the President is determined to figure out why so many people are losing their jobs and then formulate a solution. That's a relief; for a while there, I thought we were in real trouble! Full Story
By: David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report - 13 November, 2009
Waiting for our ticket to be issued, we watched as another of Denver’s finest jumped out of a hidey hole on an intersecting street, fired off his radar gun, and proceeded to pull over another slow-moving perp. With such a low tolerance for excess speed, it struck me that what the police were doing had a lot less to do with protecting the public and much more with revenue harvesting. And that the school zone was just a cover for a bonus penalty on the ticket… Full Story
An analysis of supply and demand fundamentals suggests that the current gold price does not indicate an asset price bubble, and the historic change in the status of gold by central banks implies a major revaluation not yet reflected in the gold price. As the restructuring of the global economy continues, particularly with respect to the world reserve currency, there is a clear possibility that the gold price will move up sharply from current levels. Full Story
Summing up, the short-term situation is rather mixed in case of the precious metals. There are early signs that the top is very close, so you may want to take some money off the table if you prefer to exit your positions rather early. On the other hand, the topping signals from the gold and GDX charts are not being confirmed by other methods of analysis, so if you prefer to stay in the market until it is very likely that this action is unprofitable, then I would currently suggest to hold your positions. Full Story
Non-US investors haven't enjoyed the same stock rally as Wall Street. Whereas in gold... "THE DOLLAR is still driving gold," agree the analysts, pundits and chart-watchers now scratching their heads about where gold is headed next. Full Story
Well-informed Realists know that we face at least one and perhaps two Great Waves of the Coming Perfect Storm in the Economy and the Financial Markets. Thus Deepcaster provides Guidelines for Protection and Profit in anticipation. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 13 November, 2009
With the US stock markets very overextended technically, my recent research has focused on this development’s implications. Several weeks ago I outlined the extremely overbought conditions in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX). Last week I explored how the overdue SPX pullback is even likely to spill over into the precious-metals stocks, dragging them down. Full Story
Gold's getting ready to have a short-term correction if it didn't start today. Trying to game short-term corrections in a raging bull market is a fool's game and there's no reason to do it. Simply buy on sharp pullbacks and hold on. It's not rocket science for those with a time horizon of more than a few days. One simple 10 year monthly log-scale chart can tell you where the current secular bull market is: Full Story
Suppose that I am thinking about buying a bond and its yield is 3.5 percent. This is a nominal yield before taxes and before accounting for price inflation. To estimate my real return, I need to estimate future price inflation. If, for example, I think that price inflation is going to be 3.0 percent, then I expect my before-tax yield will be only about 0.5 percent. Full Story
In early Americana, the only presence of the Federal government in most US cities/towns was US post offices. A rare few large cities had a US district court with a US judge and a few US marshals. In most cases, post offices were located at general stores across America. But slowly, about the time that the Federal Reserve Bank came into being in 1913, this reality began to change. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Rich Cash - 13 November, 2009
We owe a debt of thanks today to our learned money-manager friend from Lake Tahoe, Rich Cash, for his labyrinthine treatise on the origins of Friday the 13th. Here’s Rich, and we would encourage you to follow the links he has provided wherever they lead... Full Story
In reading the newspapers over the last eight months, since the Federal Reserve decided to print money on a massive scale in order to buy $300 billion in US treasuries along with about a trillion and a half dollars in mortgage related debt, these two groups of purchases have been viewed quite differently. Full Story
Does this really mean that Mr. Blankfein believes that the Federal Reserve is god? You can judge for yourself. While the Fed prints money like no one else could - except god almighty himself [or Gideon Gono, perhaps?] – I really doubt that was the intent back in 1864, when the U.S. adopted “In God We Trust” as their official motto. Full Story
The past two weeks have brought two massive paradigm shifts to a Gold market that has been morphing literally on a daily basis for the past few months. During this time, the pundits and purveyors of misinformation and tripe have done their best to ‘student body left’ Gold back into obscurity as an ancient, barbaric relic. They certainly get an ‘A’ for effort. Now that Gold has made its debut above $1100 an ounce, they’ve switched their tactic and are now calling it a bubble. We’ll deal with why this cannot be the case in a bit. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 12 November, 2009
If the markets go down as we expect, we’ll be in position to buy more stocks at lower prices and be well positioned for the next rebound. Or if the markets continue to rise, we’ll be in position to ride this market rally for all it’s worth. Either way, they’re both great spots to be in and it’s not nearly as crazy once you take a step back and look at the facts. Full Story
They say a picture paints a thousand words. Well this picture paints very clearly the American Economy for the last 30 years. Ever decreasing Bond Yields which = EVER EXPANDING DEBT. Full Story
The vampire squids of Wall Street and Washington DC are parasitic organisms and you are locked in mortal combat with them. They desire to suck all the value they can from you and then toss your carcass aside. As with most parasites they prefer subtle tactics that do not attract attention. Full Story
I was sent an email with ten questions this week. That is nothing new but the title of the email had me a bit confused as to why I was on the list of recipients. It was titled “Questions for all wise people”. While far from wise I thought I’d delve into the questions publicly since they may answer many of your own questions. Full Story
The coming volatile price action in gold and silver should not be a surprise to those of us who believe in gold and silver market manipulation. The COT short positions of the "commercials" are at extremes and the computer programs run by the banking cabal are still in 100% control of the prices… but times are changing! Full Story
I want to note that about a year ago, all exploration spending ceased. Even though most existing mines continued to produce metals, they even stopped spending on definition drilling. All activity simply stopped. Juniors could no longer raise capital, and the producers were focused on paying down debt. This sharp pullback is now reversing itself. Q2/2009 saw the most money raised by junior miners since Q4/2007. Q3/2009 has shown similar demand for financings. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 12 November, 2009
The literary critic George Steiner has argued that Germany was unable to produce any great novelists in the post-War period because the German language itself had lost its integrity and vitality in the service of Hitler’s and Goebbels’ nefarious goals. Is it possible the English language is about to suffer a similar fate, vitiated by the lies our leaders tell to make the nation’s reckless economic policies somehow seem prudent? Full Story
“There’s no doubt in my mind that we’ll have a mania in gold. And because the gold and especially silver markets are so tiny, the rush into them will be like trying to push the contents of Hoover Dam through a garden hose. Our positions will go absolutely ballistic.” –Doug Casey, September 2009 Full Story
With 30-year bond yields still lower than they were before last winter's wipe-out, there's an urgency about refinancing debt as 2010 draws near... Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 11 November, 2009
Last week, the Fed extended its emergency economic powers, which include lending to the money center banks at zero interest. A few days later, the Fed's plan was reinforced by similar announcements from the rest of the G-20. The road map the authorities are providing for the near-term global economy can't be much clearer. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 11 November, 2009
The American journey that began on 8/15/71 is going to end over the next several years. The problems that have manifested themselves over the past few years signal the final stages of a destructive process that has stifled production and innovation and encouraged fraud in Wall Street and banking. The injection of money and credit into the financial system via the Fed and the Treasury has almost exclusively benefited the wealthy financial sector and has spread only crumbs to American citizens. Full Story
The Junior Gold Miner ETF (ticker: GDXJ) from Van Eck Global is now in business. Though I have a problem with putting larger silver miners in this ETF as the heaviest-weighted holdings (get info from the Van Eck website here), I will be participating. This is a good vehicle for those looking to get into the more speculative side of the Gold patch without doing all the homework. It also provides a measure of international exposure. Full Story
Three decades ago, I was visiting a friend. He was a graduate of the Harvard Business School. He was beginning a successful career as an entrepreneur. We were outside, watching his son play. His son was about five years old. "Robbie," he said, "why does daddy have to go to work every day?" "To buy money," Robbie replied. "No, Robbie. I go to work to earn money." Full Story
Dubai Police apprehended the suspects in a daring $1.6 million gold heist in the Dubai International Airport within 48 hours late last month. This case highlights the security issues surrounding gold ownership, and for local investors points to the usefulness of exchange traded funds to own gold. Full Story
In February 2009 Zimbabwe was the only country in the world without debt. Nobody owed anyone anything. Following the abandonment of the Zimbabwe Dollar as the local currency all local debt was wiped out and the country started with a clean slate. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 11 November, 2009
A lot of noise has been made each time the Dow traded to a new 52 week high and the same chorus was once again sung when it put in back to back new highs on Monday and Tuesday. A very short and simple calculation reveals that all these new highs are illusory in nature; like a mirage in the desert, it looks real but when you try to examine it from close, it vanishes. Full Story
The precious metals market was stunned when India opted to buy 200 tonnes, or nearly half, of the International Monetary Fund's gold reserves. India's dramatic play on gold is good for precious metals investors, and it generates renewed interest amongst traditional investors. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 11 November, 2009
For executives temporarily living the good life on severance pay, the future looks grim. Many top earners, especially in the financial sector, lost jobs that will never return. Credit-swap specialist, anyone? So what are former $200,000-a-year bank executives and erstwhile marketing honchos doing these days to get back in the ol’ rat race? Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Andrew Mickey - 10 November, 2009
With anticipated GDP growth insufficient to sustain current market levels, Q1 Publishing's Founder and Chief Investment Strategist Andrew Mickey asserts that great expectations tend to lead to great disappointments. Although he's not foretelling a big crash, he tells Gold Report readers why it makes sense to expect the market to fall back to a fair-value level over the next six months to a year and there will still be plenty of opportunities for those in the right spot. Full Story
The recent huge purchase of gold by the Indian central bank triggered a substantial rally that took gold to new (nominal - !) highs gathered a lot of attention and generated a substantial rally. I’ve touched this subject in my previous essay, but since this topic is so popular, I would like to put additional comments this time, but from a different point of view. Full Story
The same day the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 0.25% whereas many had factored in a 0.5% rise so the AUD temporarily dropped with the gold surge – and away went the gold stocks Down Under too. Gold has been languishing in AUD terms as our currency strengthened over these past few months but I see some positive signs ahead. Full Story
The European Central Bank has a secret plan to defend the euro against a falling dollar. And it is no secret that the falling dollar is a danger to the euro-zone recovery and exports. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 10 November, 2009
Most analyses of the gold market consider the annual change in the amount of gold produced by the mining industry to be an important determinant of the gold price, with bulls regularly supporting their case by citing the mining industry's inability to ramp up production and bears sometimes claiming that increasing mine production will eventually weigh the gold price down. Our contention, however, is that the annual supply of newly-mined gold is so small relative to the existing aboveground supply that changes in mine production should be ignored when assessing gold's prospects. Full Story
I started collecting coins back in 1976, when I was just 8 years old. My interest was piqued when a kid brought an old Franklin half-dollar to school one day. I'd always liked the Kennedy halves since there were relatively rare, and getting one in change was a special event. But that Franklin half was something else entirely - like something from another planet! Even as a second-grader, I could tell there was something qualitatively different about it. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 November, 2009
December Gold’s overnight surge yesterday brought it to within two ticks of an 1111.90 target we’d been using to keep us properly bullish for the last $55 or so of the rally. Where to next? We’ll give you our best guess in a moment, but let us caution that we treat every top on the hourly chart as potentially important, since one can never can tell whether the correction that ensues will be the one that leaves bulls distraught, confused and gasping for breath. Full Story
India’s central bank taking 200 tonnes (6.4 million oz) of gold from the IMF in an off market trade has certainly lit a fire under the yellow metal. While a trade of that nature was anticipated, India, which is about the savviest of commercial gold players, was not atop the expected buyers’ list. Full Story
Every part of the sector – from multifamily apartment buildings to retail shopping centers, suburban office buildings, industrial facilities, and hotels – has accumulated a huge amount of defaulted or nonperforming paper. It’s an impossible, swaying structure that cannot long stand. Just ask Andy Miller… Full Story
By: Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors Inc. - 9 November, 2009
India’s deal to buy 200 metric tons (6.4 million troy ounces) of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a huge deal – not just the fact that the New Delhi government is handing over $6.7 billion for the metal, but what it may mean for gold going forward. Full Story
How can the stock market continue to set new rally related records week in and week out? Answer: As per our discussion last week, because at the margin, there have been enough bearish speculators, as measured by US index open interest put / call ratios, to continually squeeze prices higher. Full Story
On November 4, gold pulled back to $1025, and that was the turn. It gained 75 points over the next 6 days, including a 30 day whopper when India bought 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF. On Friday, $1100 was breached (interday on the Comex, Dec. future). Is it too late to become a gold bug? Are you one of those who did not listen to the one-handed economist? Worse, did you fly to “safety” in the U.S. dollar? Are you thinking, “Is it too late to buy?” Full Story
In was another incredible month as gold continued to outshine all other major investment themes by being the only investment that has broken out to new highs since the global meltdown of 2008. Not only is gold making new highs (1100 this week), it is doing so in a fashion that accelerated the price this week in terms of velocity, momentum, volume, and daily price range. Full Story
Gold, small caps and the U.S. dollar have had a stable three-way relationship for the better part of the 2009 rally. Now the three could be parting ways. Full Story
So -- again with the caveat that I’m the world's worst trader -- this seems like a pretty good time to bet on a temporary drop in the price of gold. But only for traders. Most people with money in precious metals and long time horizons should play golf or hang out with the kids for another five years while the broad, long-term forces of monetary destruction work their magic. Full Story
One approach to the gold market is to just hold your position and ride the market ups and downs. It is always tempting to sell out at what appears to be a market top but then until the market enters a parabolic spike this is not going to be the top. Full Story
It’s unfortunate that Rod Serling has passed on because if he were alive today, he would be filled with plenty of ideas for a killer episode of his program, showing how propaganda and the Fed’s printing press can be used to wipe out jobs, eliminate prosperity, and rob savers. The cast of characters would be played by real unemployed people playing truly heart-wrenching roles. The economy desperately needs new scriptwriters. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & The Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host, Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discuss Superstar Investors & answer listener's questions. 2nd Hour: -Jim Rogers: A Bull In China Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 8 November, 2009
Remarks by Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. International Precious Metals and Commodities Show Olympia Park, Munich, Germany Full Story
Gold appears on the verge of not only breaking out explosively, but triggering a broad, sweeping worldwide perception of its existence and, more importantly, its role in the international monetary system. In other words, its role (as well as silver’s) as a CURRENCY. Full Story
Increasing the odds that we may see a new bull market in commodities is the crossing of the 10 week average (green) above both the 43 (blue) and 65 (red) week moving averages. From 1999 to 2008, that always indicated a new uptrend. Full Story
Betting against a central bank that is holding back market forces has been a clever way for investors to make money over the years. They typically try to prop up a currency, for example, until markets force a devaluation. Full Story
Last week gold's major new uptrend became established when following a successful test of support at the breakout point it advanced to new highs, indifferent to temporary dollar strength. The new uptrend is expected to be at least of similar magnitude and duration to the great uptrends of 2005 - 2006 and 2007 - 2008 and if it is we are looking at very significant gains over the intermediate-term, which is certainly suggested by the recent powerful breakouts of many junior mining stocks. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 8 November, 2009
By giving the legacy banks the excuse not to continue lending due to the threat of Basel II mark-to-market rules, which rules were temporarily delayed by the FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) to delay recognition of losses so the Illuminists could continue to milk the system by originating and packaging their fraudulent loans and securitizations for profits to fund outrageous salaries and bonuses, the recovery of the US economy has been choked off for everyone except the Illuminists and their corrupt, "anointed," financial institutions. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 8 November, 2009
The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some can be quite cruel. The one we actually get is dictated by the choices we make. For the last few months I have been addressing the choices in front of us, economically speaking. Today I am going to summarize them, and maybe we can look for some signposts that will tell us which path we're headed down. Full Story
When you hear about America's exported inflation, be sure you distinguish Manuel Labor from Exxon. Be sure you distinguish paper currency sent abroad from digits held in New York banks. In the first case, inflation is exported, and the result is deflation in America. In the second case, inflation stays at home. So does most of the money. Ownership changes. The money supply rises in the United States when the Federal Reserve buys any asset, but that money is not exported. It just changes hands, which of course are not hands. They are computers. Full Story
Mayer Amschel Rothschild, the progenitor of the super rich Rothschild family, said to permit him to control a nation’s money and he cared not who wrote its laws. Question—did Rothschild know what he was talking about? Full Story
Will the metals stock follow the general markets lower? Well, I have no idea. Last time I didn’t expect to see them crash as every investment was liquidated. This time could be different, but maybe not. We know massive amounts of money are starting to, or waiting eagerly to move into the precious metals sector. Full Story
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