Everyone knows that the US government is bankrupt and has been for many years. But I thought it might be instructive to see what its current cash-flow situation actually is. At least insofar as it's possible to get a clear picture. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital - 13 January, 2012
The world was taken by surprise recently by the Federal Reserve Board's announcement that it would publish some of its economic forecasting that forms the basis for its short-term interest rate strategy. The Fed claims that the move will vastly increase so-called transparency, which has become a buzz word for honesty and virtue. However, the new policies do nothing to remove the cloak of secrecy that conceals still many of its most significant activities. Full Story
Gold rallied this week hitting its highest in a month and breaking above its 200-day moving average. There were a myriad of reasons suggested in the financial press. Some writers said it was a stronger euro that helped boost the price above the key technical level. One headline said it was due to a buying binge from China ahead of the Lunar New Year which begins January 23. Full Story
ECB President Mario Draghi continued to impress with his very direct style during the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first press conference of the year. While not lowering interest rates or announcing further easing measures, he made it clear that the ECB is “ready to act” should the environment deteriorate. Full Story
OWNING GOLD should make financial crises fun. Which alongside silver, it has surely done to date, 20% and 50% plunges aside. nBut if you already own physical bullion – or you're about to consider it – spare a thought for everyone else. Because pointing and laughing at the misfortune of others is an ugly habit. It only makes us "gold bugs" more boring at parties as well. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 13 January, 2012
Since rocketing to new all-time highs last summer, gold has weathered a major correction. While that selloff was healthy and necessary given the excessive optimism that catapulted gold to very-overbought levels, a strong US dollar accelerated gold’s swoon. But with the dollar now as overbought and wildly popular as gold was in August, this currency itself is due for a major selloff that is likely to launch gold. Full Story
2011 had been touted as the year that everything would change. Massive paradigm shifts would rock our world and many a prophecy was made regarding financial crises, currency crises, wars, rumors of wars, and there was even one fellow who said the world itself would end, although he later retracted his predictions, but not before his followers had spent their life savings putting up billboards. Such hysteria is certainly the hallmark of times such as these, but we have to keep in mind that just because some of the predicted events didn’t happen yet, we’re a long, long way from being out of the woods. Full Story
Let us acknowledge the obvious – any thought of higher taxes causes an automatic impulse of revulsion in most people. A flurry of emotion befalls us. It is not a subject where objectivity is the norm. If any argument can be raised against higher taxes the vast majority of entrepreneurs would do so with vigour because resistance to giving away money we have earned is in our veins. Full Story
The term “derivative” has become a dirty, if not evil word. So much of what ails our global financial system has been laid-at-the-feet of this misunderstood, mischaracterized term – derivatives. The purpose of this paper is to outline the origin, growth and ultimately the corruption of the derivatives market – and explain how something originally designed to provide economic utility has morphed into a tool of abusive, manipulative economic tyranny. Full Story
In 1798 32 year-old British economist Malthus anonymously published “An Essay on the Principle of Population” and in it he argued that human population’s increase geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16 etc.) while their food supply can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4 etc.). Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 January, 2012
Rick’s Picks sometimes ascribes human, animal or even demonic qualities to the vehicles we trade, most particularly the ever-vexatious Mini-Index futures. The following, first published here nearly a decade ago, reminds us why. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 12 January, 2012
You heard the saying, but what does it really mean? We live in a world where performance is stressed. Hedge funds can be measured on a monthly basis. Twenty percent charges on profits are levied by fund making their view short-term. Daily assessments are made, comparing one sector to another giving the impression that short-term performance is what it’s all about. But is it? No it is not. Full Story
Frank Holmes talks the Fear Trade and Love Trade with CNBC “Street Signs” co-hosts Brian Sullivan and Amanda Drury. Frank explains why the price pullback in December 2011 and soft jewelry demand during the third quarter of 2011 are temporary developments to a strong long-term story for gold prices. Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, The Linn Group - 12 January, 2012
Gold did not gain in the second six months of 2011. In fact it lost about $50 an ounce which is not common in bullish years. So that leaves us guessing what’s next and what will move gold. As I see it the European sovereign debt issues are not behind gold’s current price moves. Rather fear about what Iran might or might not do as Iran gets squeezed is what seems to be behind gold’s current rally. Full Story
There is a strong probability that the correction in the price of gold has been completed. This article has four separate sections. They are: 1. The Elliott Wave (EW) justification for thinking that the correction in gold is over. 2. Why corrections happen in gold from a fundamental viewpoint. 3. The extent to which manipulation affects the gold price. 4. A possible “black swan” event that could trigger a gold price surge. Full Story
Some investors fear that the Dow may go to 4,000 or 5,000. Surely that would be bad, but there is a worse possibility to consider, which is that the Dow could go to 36,000 instead. Now, Dow 36,000 may sound like a "problem" that most investors would love to have! So what's the danger? Full Story
Tom Kendall of Credit Suisse predicts Chinese 2012 Gold imports of 470-490 tonnes up from 245 in 2011. And Indian Gold demand has recently revived as the Reuters Indian Gold Report above indicates. Note that even though the Paper Gold Prices bounced robustly last week, prices for Physical Bounced even more. This phenomenon – the Increasing Divergence of Physical Prices from Paper Prices -- is quite important. Full Story
We here at NumberSleuth are all about exploring the world of numbers, and with this infographic we decided to take a look at the numbers behind the entire amount of gold in the world. We believe that this is the most thorough and in-depth resource about the world's gold on the Internet and we hope you have as much fun reading through the information as we did in putting it all together. Full Story
I stumbled onto this little gem about a year ago and I think it is about to work its magic again. I am speaking of the ratio of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF) to the price of Gold. Please see the original blog post for an explanation of this CEF:Gold ratio. This CEF:Gold ratio barely triggered a buy signal for silver on December 27, 2011. Of course, a "barely triggered" signal may be all we are able to achieve if silver is getting ready to rocket higher after a brutal but fairly typical (for silver) correction from the the spring, 2011 highs. Full Story
On the gold chart, I have indicated two patterns by marking similar points (1 to 10) on both. The two patterns are very similar looking. If the similarity continues, we will have a massive rally (in fact, it suggests that we are already in that rally). So where does this leave us? It would appear that gold is looking extremely bullish, as you can see in the above chart. If my comparison of the patterns is accurate, then gold should rise like it did from 1 July 2011 to 23 August; however, this time the move would be much bigger and with much more momentum. Full Story
As we climb the wall of fear in this present gold and silver bull market, weak hands are constantly calling tops, even though the kettle has not really started to boil. GI Metals DMCC views that there will be no need to think about getting out of this particular asset class and into another more undervalued one, until two things occur. Full Story
We will see a continual erosion of productivity. The banks will refuse to lend. The government will continue to absorb $1.3 trillion a year of capital. The public does not care. It senses that this cannot go on, but it has gone on so long that politicians can always kick the can. So, this is what they do. Nobody loses his seat in Congress because of this. Erosion, not collapse, is in our future. But this erosion at some point will start increasing much faster than Keynesians expect. This will be our "Greek moment." Full Story
The tone for 2012 was set in 2011. The Euro and Euro backed paper are currently trading at a discount in banking circles and Europeans are saving in gold or fleeing wherever possible. The world is in a deflationary period for many asset classes due to deleveraging. Histories largest debt bubble is deflating. Europe emerged as the epicentre of the financial storm in 2011 and this now continues. I do not use these words flippantly, this is extremely serious. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 12 January, 2012
Comex Gold finished the day with a modest gain of $12, but not before busting through some daunting supply on the intraday charts. Notice in the 240-minute bar chart below how the top of Wednesday’s rally exceeded three prior peaks. According to our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method of technical analysis, bulls need only have punched through two such peaks to signal their readiness for a follow-through rally of as much as $30 over the next few days. Full Story
By: Marin Katusa, Casey Research - 11 January, 2012
Quick, what country is the economic engine that will power world growth? If you answered "China," you're far from alone. But there's another country that deserves as much attention and better yet, is much friendlier to investment: India, home to 1.2 billion people. To electrify all those houses, power the industries that keep all those people employed, and fuel the vehicles that more and more Indians own, India's energy needs are shooting skyward. Full Story
SO "GROWTH has [now] replaced inflation as Beijing's top policy concern," says Qu Hongbin, Asian economics expert at HSBC in Hong Kong, forecasting three cuts to China's banking reserve requirements by July. Full Story
Events in the last decade displayed a vigorous effort to defend the USDollar. The rogue nation of Iraq sold crude oil in Euros for three years, until they were liberated. Its tyrant was a scourge to be sure. Weapons of financial mass destruction seem to have replaced the traditional type, the new variety being derivatives, mortgage bonds, and even sovereign bonds from weak nations. Newer weapons from the United States feature extended hands from clearing house fronts that snatch and grab segregated private accounts, and backdoor raids of exchange traded fund precious metal. Let's not overlook the more frontal assault weapons deployed like unseating Qaddafi and capturing his gold held in foreign accounts, along with all that cash. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Mike Niehuser - 11 January, 2012
Volatility in the markets isn't going away any time soon and Mike Niehuser, founder of Beacon Rock Research, expects 2012 to be a year of extreme swings. Niehuser draws parallels to the beginning of 2009, which was a short period of time that produced some very high returns. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, Niehuser shares his market outlook. Full Story
By: Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante - 11 January, 2012
One of the downsides of having government education camps (the school system) "educate" most of us slaves is that most of us have no clue what occured prior to our own lifetimes. And what we think we know is incorrect or never happened. Everything that is currently going on in the US... government "stimulus", massive deficits, pending bankruptcy and the use of the crisis to institute more government controls and blame the "free market" has already happened twice in the last century in the US. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 11 January, 2012
The hand of the US elitists shows more each day in the decisions being made in Europe. Mario Draghi, ex-Goldman Sachs, Trilateralist and Bilderberg, is putting everything in place just the way the US elitists want. We are about to see full scale quantitative easing. One trillion in loans times fractional lending of 3 to 9 to whatever will give Europe the funds it needs indefinitely. Europe is going to be a rerun of what we have seen in the UK and US. In behalf of German voters who are 65% against such funding, Chancellor Merkel has refused to allow issuance of Eurobonds or an expansion of the EFSF. Full Story
I’ve received a number of emails regarding the fact that stocks continue to rally despite Europe being on the verge of Collapse. Once again, investors are forgetting that stocks are the most clueless asset class on the planet. Indeed, here are three reasons why this latest stock market rally isn’t to be trusted. Full Story
What do investors need to be watching out for in 2012? More Eurozone drama? Record gold highs? A hard landing in China? The U.S. Global Investors team addressed these questions with Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle author John Mauldin in a Jan. 5 Outlook 2012 webinar. The Streetwise Reports editors highlight some of the expert insights. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 11 January, 2012
There was good news yesterday for taxpayers, sort of: the Federal Reserve turned $76.9 billion in 2011 profits over to the U.S. Treasury. The not so good news is that it amounts to a meager 2.6% return on the Fed’s $2.9 trillion portfolio. That may be better than George Soros and John Paulson did last year, but at what risk? Keep in mind that quite a few of the paper “assets” the Fed holds are still radioactive, including a mountain of subprime mortgages that would fatally poison the U.S. banking system if they were returned to their rightful owners. Full Story
Gold ended the first week of the new year up more than 3% from its 2011 closing price. The yellow metal is off to a robust start this week, once again trading in close proximity of the 200-day moving average (1635.86). A definitive close above this level is still awaited to bolster bullish sentiment. The high from 2-weeks ago at 1641.65 is an important level to watch as well. Full Story
It is often said that gold climbs the wall of worry. What the old saw means is that the price of gold tends to rise in the face of economic uncertainty or peril. History shows that for the most part, this has been true of gold, and to a lesser degree, silver. In 2011, gold shot up to test the $2000/oz mark and silver topped $50/oz. 2011 was certainly a volatile year for world economies. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 10 January, 2012
Recent U.S. economic data, such as the modest drop in the unemployment rate and the massive expansion of consumer credit, have suggested that the American economy is finally recovering. Opposite conclusions are being thrown at Europe, where many are convinced that recession is returning. Not surprisingly then, the dollar is currently hitting a multi-year high against the euro. The strength of the dollar itself is often held up as one of the major proof points that the U.S. economy is "improving." But the data points that I believe really matter continue to suggest an economy on life support. I believe that the dollar is rising for reasons that have nothing to do with America's economic health. Full Story
There seems to be a contest going on in the gold community. It’s a contest to see who can make you the most afraid of owning gold, silver, and gold stocks. I love competition, so I’ve decided to enter the contest. Click this ultimate fear chart now. Why draw miniature fears on the chart when you can have the big enchilada? What is your biggest risk in the gold market? Your biggest risk is that gold goes off the board against the dollar. Full Story
This may be the year that weaker member-states are booted from the euro. Will the continent fix its financial troubles or spiral out of control affecting not only the U.S. economy, but the global economy? The answer rests with Europe’s leaders. The sacrifices and austerity needed to preserve the currency zone and prevent a global financial collapse could become too heavy a burden for the political systems of one or more of the European nations. The whole house of cards is perched on thin ice. One wrong move and the world financial system would be in peril in the same way it was in fall 2008. Full Story
All bull markets have similarities and all equity bull markets have strong similarities. They go through similar phases. Most bull markets start off slow and then build towards what we like to say is an acceleration into a bubble and potential mania. In last week’s editorial we noted how bull markets, prior to the bubble phase, tend to make major bottoms every three or so years. Yet, in looking at the present bull market in gold stocks and comparing it to the previous three equity bull markets (Technology, Japan and Gold Stocks) we find stronger and deeper similarities which confirms to us that the gold stocks are in the bull market of our time. Full Story
What this debt-based monetary system has done, is to create what I call a “mirror-effect”, whereby, silver (and gold) is pushed down in value, to a similar extent as to which paper assets such as general stocks are pushed up in value. This mirror-effect clearly shows up on the long-term charts of gold, silver and the Dow. Here (in part 2), I would like to show how this “mirror effect” of silver versus the assets linked to the debt-based monetary system (general stocks in this case), shows up on the long-term charts. Full Story
By: Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante - 10 January, 2012
Do you own gold and silver mining stocks? Or any stocks for that matter? Even if you say, "yes", chances are you don't really own them. It is one of the dirtiest little secrets in the brokerage business. And 99.9% of people have no idea it is even being done to them. It's called "street name registration" and it's how the brokerage where you hold your stocks "registers" your shares. To save money and time, and to allow your shares to be included as assets that THEY can use to do what they want with, your brokerage never actually registers you as an owner of the shares. Full Story
ArabianMoney editor and publisher Peter Cooper goes down the Sharjah Gold Souk with Sandra Mergulhao from mydubaimycity.com to discuss the outlook for gold and silver prices in 2012. His bullish conclusions will come as no surprise to regular readers of this website. With the pain of last year’s correction behind us the only way is up, or is it? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 January, 2012
There were signs yesterday that although Americans went deeper in hock to get through the holiday season, their dietary habits were at least improving somewhat. In separate news items, it was reported that installment debt jumped a whopping 9.9% in November, while the company that makes Twinkies and Wonder Bread had filed for bankruptcy. Based on the news, dietitians probably had more cause for optimism about the state of the Union than investors. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 9 January, 2012
Despite the small moves in exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and the euro, confidence and trust has been debased. Looking forward to 2012, we see that deflation is becoming a rising danger. After the decay in 2011 that has hammered confidence in the euro, the need to issue more and more ‘new’ money is growing. The Eurozone is moving into recession (if it is not already in one). The Eurozone is more than likely to lose one or more of its weaker members –this will be good for the euro itself though—so liquidity shortages may force more money supply growth already exceptionally high in many countries. Full Story
By: The Gold Report, Dr. Michael Berry, and Chris Berry - 9 January, 2012
Despite a pullback in growth for China, copper demand is likely to remain strong in 2012, according to Dr. Michael Berry, publisher of Morning Notes, and his co-author, Chris Berry, founder of House Mountain Partners. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, the Berrys explain how other developing nations, such as Indonesia, should pump up demand, but supply from such regions remains a tenuous prospect. Full Story
The CFTC has many important matters to deal with in Dodd-Frank and in helping to sort out the MF Global mess. But nothing comes closer in importance than resolving allegations of an active manipulation in silver, as this is truly a crime in progress. I call on the Commission to immediately end the silver manipulation or explain why there is no manipulation. So should you. Full Story
The global economy is in turmoil. Europe is on the verge of collapse, probably taking the US down with it. As the euro-crisis worsens, we march ever closer to outright monetization of European debt by the ECB and, covertly, by the Federal Reserve. The developed world is perilously close to a monetary deluge that could make the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation look like amateur hour. Full Story
Our friend and frequent contributor Douglas Behnfield thinks too many investment advisors are looking for the same thing in 2012: rising stock and commodity prices, a weak dollar, rising interest rates and a bottom in the housing market. They’ll be wrong on all counts, he says. Instead, the enviable winning streak of those holding Treasury debt will continue. A financial advisor and vice-president at UBS in Boulder, Colorado, he sent the following New Year’s message to clients last week. Full Story
We have in recent weeks been rather confused by the contradiction between the strongly bearish price patterns that are developing in gold and silver, which are indicative of a major top that portends a brutal deflationary downwave, and the seemingly bullish COTs and sentiment for the sector. Now we believe that we have come to a realization with regards to what is going on with the COTs, which will be set out lower down the page - first we will look at the price pattern development. Full Story
Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions. GUESTS: Bill Murphy, GATA.org Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International Full Story
2012 will the year that the consequences of the choices made by nations of the so-called developed world will begin to truly manifest themselves in the economic realm. We are in the closing chapters of the current Debt Supercycle, with different countries strewn out along the path, some at more advanced stages than others but all headed for a destination that will force major decisions if politically painful actions are not taken. The longer that process takes, the fewer options that are available and the more painful the outcomes. Some countries (think Greece, et al.) have a choice between dire economic circumstances and disastrous. The option for merely difficult choices was passed long ago, and the rules are such that there is no going back to where you started without a different but equally painful outcome. Full Story
By: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. - 8 January, 2012
Our friend the Dutch financial writer Jaco Schipper reports today that the president of the Netherlands central bank acknowledged this week on Dutch television that 90 percent of the nation's gold reserves is kept outside the country to facilitate sales. Dutch TV, Schipper adds, also interviewed geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards, author of the new book "Currency Wars," who spoke at GATA's London conference last August, and GATA's longtime supporter Willem Middelkoop, a fund manager and financial writer, who argued for repatriating the Dutch gold to protect it against expropriation by the U.S. government. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 8 January, 2012
Irrespective of the trillions of dollars thrown at the US economy since 2006 there is no evidence that long-term solvency or recovery has been achieved. The debt that has been added and created means we’ll see higher inflation and perhaps hyperinflation. Comments by administration officials last week that if necessary the dollar will be crushed, are hardly comforting. Remember, just a week before Fed Chairman Bernanke said to Congressmen that the Fed was not going to lend Europe money to bail their members out and one week later we have a $1 trillion swap, loan program to bail Europe out. Full Story
The cyclical bull market recovery which began in March 2009 was powerful in its first year, moderately strong in 2010 and visibly weakened by the end of 2011. Thus we have the pattern of a recovery which is losing internal force with each passing year. The start of a New Year heralds some interesting possibilities for the coming 12 months, which we’ll discuss in this commentary. Full Story
It’s so nice to be back at work after taking a week off for the most part and just keep one eye on the markets while not writing a word. It was nice to take a break and spend leisure time with family and friends. I did need it but I sure do love working, if you’d even call it that. Full Story
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