By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 12 August, 2016
If the Economy were a car, productivity would be the engine. Heated seats, on-demand 4-wheel drive and light-sensitive tinted windshields, are all very nice. But they mean little if the engine doesn't turn and the car just sits in the driveway. The latest productivity data from the Commerce Department confirms that our economic engine is sputtering. If you strip away all the bells and whistles of economic analysis, the simple truth is that the increased living standards that have taken us from the stone age to the digital age happened because we increased our productivity. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 12 August, 2016
Gold stocks’ new bull market this year has already proven breathtaking. This obscure sector has nearly tripled within a matter of months, yielding immense profits for the smart contrarians who bought in low. But after such a blistering surge, what’s going to fuel gold stocks’ next upleg? Heavy gold investment buying driving its price much higher will greatly boost gold-mining profitability, attracting in far more capital. Full Story
In sum, Equities are topping and a Crash and Deeper Recession is coming (see Equities). Much recent Equities strength is due to “Deep Pockets” aka Plunge Protection Team buying, and the Central Banks’ artificial boosting of Equities. But some is also due to the fact that for many investors U.S. Equities are the only place left to go because of the perceived strength of the U.S. Economy. Full Story
The bottom line is that Market Sentiment is a big time driver. During Brexit people needed to get bullish. Subsequently, today they need to at least realize that the first mover advantage is gone and a bull today is bull in a massive herd. I am one of those, but I have a completely different feeling than I had a couple months ago. We have higher targets for US and global markets and indeed, the current sentiment backdrop is wildly unhealthy but need not be a stop sign… just as in 1999. Full Story
The chart below clearly illustrates that a relationship exists between crude oil and the Dow. For most of the 1st half of 2015, oil traded sideways, and the Dow followed suit. Then, around July of 2015, oil broke down, and the Dow followed in its footsteps. We see a similar pattern from Nov-Dec 2015; oil headed lower, and the Dow once again followed in its footsteps; so much for the argument that states lower oil prices are conducive for the markets. Full Story
If you enjoyed watching this video, be sure to check out the Hidden Secrets of Money website at https://www.hiddensecretsofmoney.com/. It’s a world-leading educational series by Mike Maloney, the bestselling author of the Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver. As Mike explains in the series and his book, we live in an economic system that is made complicated by design. Basically, it’s set up so most people don’t even try to understand it. In Mike’s videos, he breaks down these concepts using easy-to-follow analogies, real pages from history, and animations that tie it all together. Full Story
Mainstream economists today who deny the truth enunciated by Say live in cloud-cuckoo land. The truth, exposed by Hayek who knew him personally, is that Keynes actually knew little about economics.[iii] His General Theory, on Hayek’s evidence and the analysis in this article, amounts to an enormous hoax, which the establishment has embraced because of its promise. The political class has been fully taken in, seeing it as a life-line justifying positive economic intervention by the state. Mainstream economists see it as justification for their employment as more and more papers are written to justify Keynesian and monetary economics in the face of gathering negative evidence. Full Story
Every child knows Olympic gold medals are for first place, silver for second and bronze for third. But where does this tradition come from? Like most everything else relating to the Olympics, we can trace the tradition back to the ancient Greeks, who assigned metals (not medals) to different Ages of Man. First among them was the Golden Age, characterized as a peaceful time when humans and gods lived in harmony and food was plentiful. The Greeks believed this to be the pinnacle of our existence, after which it all went downhill. Following that golden period came the Silver Age, when childhood lasted 100 years. Then, the Bronze Age, a time of violence and destruction among warring tribes. Full Story
We have analyzed the reasons behind the Brexit vote. Let’s turn to the consequences of the Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, which are probably far more important from the investors’ perspective. As we stated in the previous edition of the Market Overview, the exact impact of the potential Brexit depends on the new economic relationship between the UK and the EU. What are the UK’s options outside the European Union? Full Story
Look, this is not meant as some sort of forecast for higher gold prices over the next few days and, from a historical perspective, TED Spreads are still not all that high. However, there should be no discounting of the fact that the most recent TED Spread peaks led to temporary but stout equity market declines and sharp run-ups in the price of gold. For what it's worth, I'd be sure to keep an eye on the TED Spread as we go through August. If it and the stock market peak and begin to roll over, don't be surprised if gold (and silver) suddenly surge to new 2016 highs. Full Story
Lets start off by taking an indepth look at the INDU as a proxy for the other US stock markets. A year ago this month the INDU put in an important low which has held support. A very strong rally ensued which took the INDU up to the 17,975 area where it topped out and began another strong decline. This next decline ended in the same area as the August 2015 low and formed a double bottom which is a reversal pattern. Full Story
The ABC pattern shown is ugly enough to be useful, especially since it has already gifted us with a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal at the green line that could have been worth as much as $900 per contract if traded. All of the ‘external’ peaks on the hourly chart have been used up, however, so we’ll bide our time waiting to see whether buyers can power this vehicle past the target. If so, it would imply that a larger pattern with the potential to reach 1424.60 is in play. Here are the coordinates on the 240-minute chart: A=1259.10 on 6/23; B=1368.90 on 6/24; and C=1314.80 on 6/28. Full Story
“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes its laws.” Supposedly this is a quote from Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild. Ignore the distinct possibility that he did not make this statement, but let’s assume the concept, if not the quote, is accurate. The Federal Reserve and other central banks exercise considerable control over our economies via interest rates, debt creation, QE and more. They create massive profits for the financial industry that in turn purchases many politicians and Presidents. Full Story
A major breakout doesn’t necessarily portend any particular duration or price objective to follow. The silver market is notorious for producing price swings that befuddle forecasters. Nevertheless, the birth of a new cyclical bull market suggests the potential for a multi-year up move to come. Before it’s over, we are likely to see new all-time highs. The good news for those not yet invested in silver is that even after the impressive rally so far in 2016, prices remain relatively depressed. Silver still trades at less than half its former high mark. Full Story
The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way. Basically, in the long run, the two move in opposite directions. When the USD/ZAR rate is moving up, then the silver price is moving down, and vice versa. Furthermore, when the USS/ZAR rate is making a top, then a bottom in silver is normally very close (before or after the USD/ZAR peak). Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 10 August, 2016
The U.S. and world are heading toward an accelerated breakdown of their economic and financial markets. Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of analysts fail to understand the root cause of this impending calamity. This is also true for the majority of precious metals analysts. The reason for this upcoming systemic collapse of the U.S. and Global markets is quite simple when you understand the information and are able to CONNECT THE DOTS. While it has taken me years of research to be able to finally put it all together, new information really put it all into perspective. Full Story
The trigger now for this 3rd wave set up to the upside in the upcoming week is a move through the 31.65GDX level. A move through that level at any point now is strongly suggestive that the market is breaking out in the heart of the 3rd wave, and is on its way to 39-41. So, if one wants to trade this set up much more confidently, you can always wait for the break out trigger, and we can then note the appropriate stops after such a break out. This can provide stronger assurance of the move for which the market now seems to be set up. Full Story
In the course of writing a newsletter on silver and seeking new angles on the metal, it is necessary to maintain a wide array of datasets. Some of these I update on a weekly and monthly basis for subscribers, but I thought I would update one that gives us the very long term view on the price of silver. Full Story
Today the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the World Gold Council (WGC) jointly announced (here and here) the launch next year of standardised gold and silver spot and futures contracts which will trade on the LME’s electronic platform LMESelect, will clear on the LME central clearing platform LME Clear, and that will be settled ‘loco London’. Together these new products will be known as ‘LMEprecious’ and will launch in the first half of 2017. Full Story
It’s early Tuesday – and as I said in my first official Tweet this morning, don’t count on the “summer doldrums” lasting too long. Particularly in the case of Precious Metals, if you believe a blatantly “BS NFP Report,” defying every other piece of economic data, will prevent terrified people, the world round, from PROTECTING themselves from the hyperinflation some currencies are already experiencing, and others shortly will. Full Story
Here's a story that came out earlier today. Maybe it's just me but it's easy to see a Bullion Bank plot here. For months, we've documented all of the various points of demand for gold in all its forms. And now, as The Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme is being stretched to extremes, suddenly the LME wants to offer another form of paper gold with which to screw everyone. Full Story
What is the real interest rate? It is the nominal rate minus the inflation rate. This is a problematic idea. Let’s drill deeper into what they mean by inflation. You can’t add apples and oranges, or so the old expression claims. However, economists insist that you can average the prices of apples, oranges, oil, rent, and a ski trip at St. Moritz. This is despite problems that prevent them from agreeing on what should be included. Full Story
Gold is well-supported in the current price zone. Institutions are buyers on minor dips, but the next major move to the upside is unlikely to happen without a significant fundamental catalyst. Janet Yellen makes an important speech at Jackson Hole later this month. For decades, I’ve viewed the August 7th – October 31st time period as US stock market “crash season”. If Janet causes the stock market to stumble with stronger words about a possible rate hike in September, that could quickly send gold towards my $1432 target. Full Story
Investors have seen this a thousand times before. The reaction in gold and silver markets was almost as predictable as the sunrise. When markets continually respond to highly managed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – or some other bureaucracy – in a machine-like way, you have to assume it’s because most of the trading is actually done by high frequency trading machines (HFTs). Full Story
Central bankers are declaring war on cash for one reason only; they want to punish savers and reward speculators and in the process destroy the middle class. The only way to maintain the illusion that all is well is to get the average Joe to embrace this illusory economic recovery and what better way to achieve this then by forcing them to speculate in the markets. Full Story
Negative interest rates are an existential threat for insurance companies, pension funds and other financial entities that need positive investment returns to survive. As rates on government bonds have gone negative in Europe and Japan, the above companies have been big buyers of US Treasury bonds, which still (for some reason) continue to offer positive yields. But according to a Bloomberg analysis published today, Treasuries’ positive yield has recently evaporated when the cost of hedging currency fluctuations is included. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 9 August, 2016
The monthly US employment reports have no relevance except for their influence on the Fed and market expectations regarding future Fed actions. The moderately strong employment data reported last Friday, for example, provides no information about the current or likely future performance of the US economy, but was noteworthy because it led to a slight increase in the expected level of the Fed Funds Rate (FFR). Full Story
Gold is one of the rarest elements in the world, making up roughly 0.003 parts per million of the earth’s crust. (For some perspective, one part per million, when converted into time, is equivalent to one minute in two years. Gold is even rarer than that.) If we took all the gold ever mined—all 186,000 tonnes, from the bullion at Fort Knox to India’s bridal jewelry to King Tut’s burial mask—and melted it down to a 20.5 meter-sided cube, it would fit snugly within the confines of an Olympic-size swimming pool. Full Story
Although many are confused by these markets, there is a simple explanation for every strange thing going on right now: The United States is rapidly devolving into a Third World country. We've got the politicians to prove it. On one side is the classic insider, handing out favors to cronies and corporate big-shots while not-so-secretly covering her tracks and lining her pockets; on the other side is the classic Strongman, full of machismo, bluster, simple sloganeering, and even a trademark hair-do/spray tan combo. Full Story
This weekend, a reader emphatically tried to convince me oil prices were bottoming, as the “best cure for low prices is low prices.” His argument covered every possible angle, from fundamental to “technical”; assuming, generally speaking, that the historic supply glut – as exemplified by record U.S. gasoline stocks, much higher than a year ago – will soon be worked off, yielding materially higher prices. Full Story
The Bank of England cut key rates this week for the first time in seven years, sending gold higher on the news. The yellow metal also moved in reaction to details of a stimulus package in Japan, reaching a three-week high before the release of the U.S. jobs report on Friday. BullionVault reported that its Gold Investor Index (which measures a balance of client buyers to sellers) rebounded from an eight-month low this week, rising to 53.4 versus 51.4. Full Story
As far as the markets are concerned, it all depends on interest rates. Because disenfranchised millennials don’t give a fig about how high they go (because they are poor), but asset / debt heavy baby boomers sure do. So watch interest rates, especially 10-year US Treasuries (TNX). Higher rates will empower the millennials / disenfranchised, and lower rates means the status quo is maintaining – for now. (i.e. because it’s coming no matter what.) In this regard, as you may know, we are watching the Gold / USB (30-Year US Treasuries) Ratio for the signal inflation is accelerating higher, which is in fact the case already, but the trend has not shifted into a ‘manic move’ just yet. Full Story
The price of gold was down about fifteen Federal Reserve Notes this week. The price of silver was down sixty-two copper-plated zinc pennies. Is the Federal Reserve Note a suitable instrument with which to measure gold? Can one really use debased pennies—which aren’t even made of the base metal copper any more—to measure the value of gold? We don’t know. We just work here. Quick, buy some silver, we hear it’s going to $100! Full Story
The case for commodities (cyclical) always rested on an inflationary phase, but in noting that the same is true for gold it appears that we have deviated from the preferred case for a strong, longer-term gold bull; and indeed we have. The point I have been making as the Semiconductor Equipment cycle went positive a few months ago and gold broke down vs. palladium more recently, is that cyclical forces are at work now. That would not be the preferred fundamental environment for gold or gold miners. Full Story
Remember all those analysts that have been telling us the market was about to crash? Well, just like I predicted, the Nasdaq is now testing the all-time highs. Beware of a false breakout early next week. This is how big money gets out of a position. They create a breakout and then sell to the clueless retail traders that buy the breakout. Buying breakouts rarely works in modern markets. Full Story
The First Rebuttal website has coined a term that gets to the heart of an increasingly dysfunctional system: The too-big-to-fail stock market. The general thesis is that most major countries are over-leveraged to that point of maybe being unable to survive a garden variety equities bear market – and are doing whatever it takes to keep that from happening. Full Story
The big US banks are dead, as in giant hollow reeds. Such has been the Jackass refrain for eight straight years. They are insolvent monsters and destroyers of wealth and capital. They are massive criminal enterprises. Events prove the case well. The Too Big to Fail policy has instead assured the wreckage and destruction of the USEconomy. Save the big banks, but ruin the capital base. The USGovt under the management of the banker cartel since the 9/11 event, which they orchestrated in a bold move, has systematically brought down the macro business sector, permitted the USDollar platforms to decay completely, and rigged the financial markets in every conceivable arena. Full Story
The gold price didn’t do much in Far East or early London trading on their Friday, as the world waited for the job numbers report at 8:30 a.m. EDT yesterday morning. And when they were announced, JPMorgan et al were ready. Most of the damage was done by 10:45 a.m. EDT, but shortly before the COMEX close, quiet selling pressure appeared once again — and gold was closed almost on its low of the day. Full Story
Because it is now “politically incorrect” to be bearish on gold, it makes it more likely that a sizeable correction will occur soon, and there are a number of technical indicators at extremes suggesting that a correction is imminent, which we will look at in this update. We’ll start by looking at gold’s latest charts beginning with the 3-month. On this chart we see that gold made only very limited gains following its Brexit vote surge, and it has just failed at resistance at its early July high, with a sizeable down day on Friday, so that it is now stuck in a rectangular trading range, which could be either a continuation pattern or an intermediate top. Full Story
In a recent article, Peter Degraaf posted a series of charts including the one below. I must confess I had never seen this particular chart before but extremely glad it was posted. I knew the monetary base had grown wildly but did not realize the extent until seeing it in graph form. While Peter spent just one paragraph on this, let's look at it in depth to get a better understanding of why it is so important and what it really means. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Patrick Watson - 7 August, 2016
If we had to describe the last 50 years of economic history in one word, globalization would be high on the list. Thousands of small, independent economies around the world fused into one nearly seamless whole. The things we use every day – food, clothing, vehicles, furniture, electronic devices, even the materials that compose our homes – now come from far and wide. We don’t even notice. International trade over vast distances is now so normal that we forget it wasn’t always so. Full Story
Gold has multiple resistance zones at the 1380-1400 level. It’s going to take some work to break through these. Gold will need some help from the dollar, which it will eventually get as the dollar will be due for its intermediate cycle low by the end of September or early October. Once the breakout occurs, gold should make a beeline for the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and then maybe to $1550 before this intermediate cycle tops. Full Story
Jim Rogers rejoins the show from his Singapore office - he's waiting patiently for discount opportunities in the precious metals sector. While the top US shares continue to tread water, twice as many lesser known stocks have declined over the same period. The recent Brexit may have signaled an end to the hegemony of the EU; Italy, Spain and Portugal could be the next to leave the confederacy. Jim Rogers advocates adding agriculture based investments to every portfolio, underscoring the importance of listening to alternative talk shows. Full Story
Peter Eliades agrees with the host; gold represents real wealth, "An ounce of gold historically always purchases a first rate business suit." Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, returns to the show with insights for every investor - it may be time to reevaluate portfolio weighting. From a technical / cyclical vantage point, a key zenith appears to be nearing for US shares. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 7 August, 2016
The global economic and financial system is in much worse shape than I originally thought. New data and information suggest that the collapse will occur much quicker and with more dire results. This will cause global silver production to literally fall off a cliff within the next decade. Full Story
In my last chart of the day I noted that gold and the metals sector in general were too stretched above the 200 DMA and would likely have to churn for awhile before the next leg up could begin. After seeing the sell off following Friday’s employment number I think I probably called that one correctly. The metals may have to churn sideways for most of August before the next rally begins. Full Story
Gold lost just 0.99% this past week and technically has broken the beautiful cup and handle pattern. That said, charts are painted to shake those not in the know out of their positions. As long as we hold the 21 day moving average we can salvage this very powerful cup and handle pattern in my view. The $1,380 area remains the breakout buy level, while a dip buy at the 21 day average could be used as a starter position. Full Story
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