Earlier this week we looked at the expanding triangle as a possible reversal pattern as it was testing the top rail with a beakout gap. The next two days saw the HUI decline back down to the top of the double bottom hump at 139 where it found support. Yesterday's price action took out the top rail of the expanding triangle again. Today the HUI backtested the top rail around the 155 area and is bouncing. There is no doubt the PM complex is overbought but we now have two possible reversal patterns in play. Full Story
Negative interest rates were an economic pipe dream many decades ago, but the idea of “charging” interest to hold money is now becoming mainstream. Conventional wisdom was that depositors would just hoard cash rather than depositing at a cost, but now the people running central banks are beginning to believe that this fear is misplaced. Especially as society becomes more cashless, the inconvenience of withdrawing money to save a few bucks isn’t worth it. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 12 February, 2016
The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again, multiplying wealth for smart contrarian traders who bought them low in recent months. But after such a blistering surge, traders are naturally wondering how much farther gold stocks can run. Is it time to realize gains, or buy aggressively for greater gains to come? This critical question can be answered by looking at fundamentally-derived gold-stock price targets. Full Story
The average person may have no interest in capital controls, but to rephrase a well-known saying, capital controls are interested in you. The residents of Greece found this out in 2015 when capital controls were imposed, and they could not legally send the money in their bank accounts out of the country. Full Story
Student debt is increasing at the rate of almost $3000.00 per second; this is stunning considering that education tour system does not even rank in the top 10 globally; we are ranked 18 out of 20. Worse yet, it indicates that colleges are simply forcing young individuals to take on mind-boggling amounts of debt in the hopes of landing a good job when they graduate. Getting a student loan is about as easy it was to get a loan during the booming housing market cycle and look how that story ended. Full Story
As you know, 2016 is shaping up to be the "year of consequence" that we predicted it would be. The timely emergence of the ABX, which gives producers and consumers alike an opportunity to interact outside of the existing LBMA system, only adds to the dynamic. We wish Tom, Andy and everyone else associated with ABX all the best in their efforts to offer the investment world a much more free and fair platform for buying and selling physical metal. Full Story
I guess we're beginning to see why gold rallied so sharply last Friday on the afterhours Globex. What we have here are the early stages of a global loss of confidence in the omnipotence of the central bankers planners. As confidence is the only "asset" backing their scheme, a growing loss of confidence is utterly devastating and this begins to lead the world back to the certainty of gold and silver. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 February, 2016
The markets have finally cracked and things are about to become a lot more interesting. Today, the price of gold surged more than $60 and silver $0.60 as the markets crumbled. Even though the markets recovered after some TWO-BIT announcement by OPEC stating that they were talking about “Cutting Production” again… I believe the worst is yet to come. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 12 February, 2016
Thursday’s explosive rally brought the April contract within summiting distance of a 1308.00 peak from a year ago that I’d labeled ‘the Matterhorn’ in an earlier analysis. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, this number is a very important benchmark, since, if the rally exceeds it without pausing for breath, it would greatly shorten the odds that the bear market begun in September of 2011 is over. To be sure, the 1814 target I’ve been using as a bear-market projection will remain in play until such time as 1432.90 is exceeded to the upside. Full Story
Summing up, the belief in the systematical suppression of gold prices cannot stand confrontation with empirical data, economic theory and rigorous, factual analysis. Investors should accept the existence of gold market cycles. Full Story
Has the crash begun? The similarities between the current market environment and those seen in the 2008 economic crisis are scary to say the least. Investors are panicking and for good reason – signs that another Lehman-style crisis may be on the horizon. Full Story
When there is no more gold left in London to export the price is likely to go higher on strong global demand. At the time of writing the spot gold price is $1,251.80 per ounce, up 18% year to date, while the SPX 500 is down 9% year to date. Is the gold price rising because of physical supply shortages? Full Story
Although the rate hike was tiny, global stock markets couldn’t handle it. U.S. stocks were in a strong bull market from March 2009 through December 2014, gaining 204%. However, since the Fed raised rates on December 16, the SPX 500 has dropped 6.4%. Foreign stocks have also fallen. The Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks 600 of Europe’s largest stocks, has dropped 5.4% since December 16. The Japanese Nikkei has dropped 8% in the same period. Full Story
Official pronouncements of optimism don't square with the economic realities now unfolding. Since the Fed's rate hike, warning signs of a looming recession have rapidly accumulated. Industrial production is slumping. Global bulk shipping rates are in the dumps. The number of people without full-time jobs is growing. Corporate earnings are weakening. The junk bond market is melting down, and the stock market appears to be following suit. Full Story
Hopefully you have read between the lines of my writings over the last few weeks and felt the urgency of the situation. Markets all over the world are coming apart at the seams and "control" is rapidly being lost. I would like to mention, over the years there has been one "rule" never broken. Almost ALWAYS, whenever the president of the U.S. speaks, or whenever the Fed meets and issues a policy statement ...or whenever the Chairman of the Fed speaks ..."control" is at its greatest. Full Story
The surge in gold prices over the past week has much to do with the current and upcoming events of central banks moving to even lower negative interest rates. The impact is being felt in countries which have enacted such. German and French banks got hit especially hard this week. Today the sector getting hit especially hard in US stock indices is the banking sector as the market is throwing in the towel on ideas that the Fed will be able to lift interest rates further anytime soon. Full Story
In a recent report, HSBC suggests that we could be in the early stages of a new gold bull market, one that will “probably” usher the yellow metal back up to at least $1,500. This “forthcoming market,” says the bank, “has the potential eventually to exceed the speculative frenzy seen in 2011.” Full Story
The global Central Banks have declared War on Cash. Historically, one of the safest things to do when the markets begin to collapse is to move a significant portion of your holdings to cash. As the old adage says, during times of deflation, “cash is king.” Full Story
Global investment demand for the full year 2015 grew by 8% to 878t from 815t in 2014. Bar and coin demand remained steady in 2015 as investors took advantage of a weaker price in Q3. The ETF market saw a slowdown in outflows: 133t in 2015, compared to 185t in 2014. Q4 2015 witnessed a continuation of these trends with a number of key regions experiencing double digit growth. Full Story
A question may go through the minds of some readers as they read many of the articles written by this “precious metals commentator.” That question is one of relevance. Why should readers or investors who are interested in precious metals want to read about “politics,” geopolitical events, or even social justice issues? Full Story
This unprecedented bashing of bank stocks is a clear signal of great financial distress — the causes and effects of which we have detailed in our Trends Journals, Trends Monthly, Trend Alerts and Trends in the News broadcasts. In addition, with central banks imposing negative interest rates, it is less profitable for banks to lend, thus reducing their earning power, and adding more downward financial pressure during a time of increased distress. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 11 February, 2016
On January 29th, Japan's central bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced that the Bank of Japan would introduce a Negative Interest Rate Policy, or NIRP, on bank reserve deposits held in excess of the minimum requisite. The European Central Bank, and central banks in Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden have already partially blazed this mysterious trail. The banks have done so in order to weaken their respective currencies and to light a fire under inflation. Swiss national bonds now carry negative rates out to maturities of eleven years, meaning investors must lock up funds for eleven years to receive even a small positive nominal return! Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 11 February, 2016
There’s an ongoing catastrophe taking place in Ecuador. Not only has a significant part of the Amazon been polluted by toxic waste oil left behind from the wonderful folks at Texaco when the company started drilling for oil in Ecuador back in the 1970’s, but the low oil price has totally gutted the oil industry. Full Story
One of my many mistakes early in my trading career was trying to trade counter trend after missing a powerful move. The momentum can be harder to break than many think. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 11 February, 2016
The composite weekly chart (see inset) allows us the interpretation that January’s low surpassed not only the August 2015 bottom, but the key low recorded in October 2014. Thus was the sharp selloff last month powerfully impulsive. Moreover, it portends another leg down, presumably within the next 2-4 weeks, to as low as 1669.25. From a visual standpoint, it is hard to imagine a second leg down as steep as January’s. But even allowing for a couple of sideways bars for the next week or two, the futures are unlikely to avoid a test of the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1804.63. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Investments - 10 February, 2016
"The Fed doesn't have a clue!" - I allege that not only because the Fed appears to admit as much (more on that in a bit), but also because my own analysis leads to no other conclusion. With Fed communication in what we believe is disarray, we expect the market to continue to cascade lower - think what happened in 2000. What are investors to do, and when will we reach bottom? Full Story
Now in 2016, the great majority of the market was equally certain that gold was going to drop below $1,000. However, our BUY box on our chart – which originally was provided to members several years ago, and has remained quite consistent - was prominently presented just a bit above the $1,000 mark, with the GDX BUY region just below the 13 level, and silver's beginning at 14. And, after a 4+ year correction, our BUY boxes have all been struck. Full Story
The stock market, the U.S. dollar, and gold are all undergoing important changes in trend that will impact millions of investors around the globe for the next several months to years. Sadly, a large percentage of investors are completely oblivious to this fact. Many are in denial that a new bear market in stocks has started. They lack the ability to both identify the major trend, and understand that markets are cyclical and oscillate from bull to bear market and back again. Full Story
On the heels of last weeks sharp recovery, the Japanese yen has continued to climb out of the broad base carved over the past year, making fresh 14 month highs and leading the currency charge against the US dollar. Worth noting, Monday's close marked the first major "higher high" since the yen cracked at the end of 2012 and began its long decline to its cycle low last June. Full Story
“Our vision is a network infrastructure that facilitates instant-global value transfers from fully-backed physical assets, verified and secure, as opposed to negative yielding debt instruments,” said Josh Crumb, Chief Strategy Officer. “With today’s platform update, in addition to the BitGold partnership with Dillon Gage, we expand the ecosystem to incorporate traditional bullion products as well as business and merchant account nodes.” Full Story
Do you think "someone" might have lost some money since January 1st? Enough to bankrupt them? THIS is the question! The answer in my opinion is this, there are dead bodies strewn all over the place yet are hidden from view. They are being hidden from view because if they are seen, the entire system comes into question with answers being delivered within probably a 48 hour period. The answer of course will be the biggest "gaps" in all of history ...both in price AND time! By this I am saying the re opening gaps will be larger in percentage and the time to reopen longer than ever before. Full Story
Bubbles arise when asset prices inflate above what underlying incomes can sustain. Centuries ago, the Dutch woke up one morning and discovered that tulips were simply just flowers after all. But today, the public has yet to wake up to the mathematical reality that over $200 trillion in debt and perhaps another $500 trillion of un(der)funded liabilities really cannot ever be paid back under current terms. However, this fact is dawning within the minds of more and more critical thinkers with each passing day. Full Story
In the end, and without a doubt, precious metals will be last man standing in terms of ultimate currency and means of saving. This understanding becomes self-evident upon the individual performing a comprehensive study of history, politics, and economics, amongst other things, not the least of which being free thinking sources of the above. This is of course why you are here, because we are all of those things. Full Story
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and this chart is probably worth a lot more. It illustrates how the BLS has been lying through its teeth over the past seven years. Then again anyone with a grain of common sense could figure out that the retarded methodology the BLS employs is bound to create the illusion that all is well. Full Story
Precious metals banked another solid week of gains as investors looked for alternatives to the stock market and U.S. dollar. Both gold and silver pushed through important technical resistance levels. Metals bulls hope to see markets enter a virtuous cycle; improving charts followed by more speculative long interest leading to improved charts. Full Story
WMD – Wasteful Monetary Devastation will destroy unbacked paper currencies, the global bond market, and economies dependent upon financial engineering and paper pushing. The Derivative Bubble – AKA the Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction – will make the coming global deflationary collapse, and the central bank “money printing” reaction, even more devastating. Full Story
Only a couple of weeks ago, I said we were entering the jaws of the Epocalypse. Now we are sliding rapidly down the great beast’s throat toward its cavernous belly. The biggest economic collapse the world has ever seen is consuming everything — all commodities, all industries, all national economies, all monetary systems, and eventually all peace and stability. This is the mother of all recessions. Full Story
Prices will go up when they are called in to make the transition. Nothing can be done about it. The damage will not be reflatable. We will come out on the other side unguided.
It is just a matter of time and a matter of how imaginative an individual can be about preparing or envisioning the way this breakdown would likely manifest. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 February, 2016
As market turmoil continues to push gold and silver prices higher, precious metal investors need to understand the fundamentals more than ever. Unfortunately, there continues to be a lot of misinformation reported by sources in the precious metal community. This is harmful as it confuses would be precious metal investors. Full Story
I wanted to sit down with Brandon Smith, Alt-Market, for a very specific reason. Brandon is one of very few people that stuck to his analysis and said the Federal Reserve would in fact raise interest rates in December 2015. Not only did he say that the interest would happen, he predicted almost the exact date. Brandon made this prediction in August 2015 based on his analysis of what the global banksters have published, have said publicly and proven time and again through their actions they do what they say when they say they are going to do it. Full Story
Physical supply and demand have little to no effect on the price of gold. The price of gold is set on the paper markets and pre-dominantly on the OTC market in London. The volume traded during one day on the London Gold Market is at least 88 % of an entire year’s gold mining production. One year’s trading volume in London is at least 170,195 tons whereas annual global gold mining output stands at 3,100 tons. Full Story
Gold has been on a roll these past few weeks as it has rocketed from the lows of $1046 on December 3rd to a high of $1200 this past day. That is an advance of 17% and doubtless many are wondering if this is the start of a new multi-year bull market for gold (and by consequence, silver)? As things stand, gold may be about to encounter some headwinds. First, we look at the channel that gold has been descending gently down since August 2013. As you can see, gold has touched the top channel line three times in that period only to fall back to the lower line of the channel. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 9 February, 2016
Monday’s surge did everything we’d asked of April Gold and more, raising the odds that this rally is more than the usual Whoopee Cushion effusion that has repeatedly teased bulls to the limits of their patience for the last four years. At the intraday high, the futures had demolished a daunting resistance at 1191.90, where April Gold peaked precipitously in mid-October. That leaves only a lesser peak at 1232.30 (see inset) and January 2015’s ‘Matterhorn’ at 1308.00 as impediments to the resumption of the long-term bull market. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 8 February, 2016
GATA's friends Andy Schectman, president and co-founder of Minnesota bullion dealership Miles Franklin Precious Metals, and the firm's marketing director, Andy Hoffman, will continue their series of monetary metals presentations in Minneapolis on Friday, February 26, and in Phoenix on Wednesday, March 16. Full Story
In early July 2014, the North American benchmark for oil, West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI), traded at $106 a barrel. Once the US dollar index (DXY) started its big run above 80, the price of oil began to drop and by the beginning of Q4 2014, a worldwide bear market was in full force. At that juncture, WTI was still around trading at $90 a barrel. Full Story
A topic written about before, "GAPS". This is no acronym, simply a description of what is going to happen, probably quite soon! If you don't know what a gap is now, you will know it when you see it! In technical terms, a "gap" opening is when a market opens either higher than the previous day's high and does not trade down to that previous high ...or, trades below the previous low and does not trade back up to that low. On a chart this action will leave a "gap" of emptiness signifying no trading took place in the gap area. Full Story
Today, the Asian giant is undergoing dramatic changes, as its government deepens reforms and opens the country’s economy up to foreign investment. The size of its middle class is rapidly expanding in size, giving a huge boost to domestic consumption. And with the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the renminbi’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) reserve currency, China’s role in global financial markets is growing in importance. Full Story
One of the idiots from Wall Street that CNBC likes to roll out was on scratching his head over the behavior of the stock market. He asserted that it was nothing more than panic because “the real economy is doing well.” I’m wondering what data he’s using to draw that conclusion. Nearly every report that has been released for the last few months, other than the highly manipulated/fabricated Government employment report, is showing that economic activity is collapsing to levels last observed in 2008. Full Story
A picture is worth 4-plus years and thousands of words, and the picture below has a lot to say. I’ll say some words as well, since I have kept them bottled up for years in an effort to make sure we operate with discipline as opposed to gold bug style emotion. The bear market and subsequent inflation-fueled credit bubble early last decade was when I first started paying close attention to macro markets (as opposed to stock trading, which I had done for a few years prior) and how they operate. Full Story
Put another way, Gold has demolished stocks during a period in which the Fed was printing money by the trillions of Dollars. The Fed and other Central Banks may want to boost stocks, but Gold is the biggest beneficiary from their insanity. However, Gold’s long-term outperformance of stocks is even more incredible. Most “analysis” of Gold as an investment runs back for 100 years or so. However, this analysis is deceptive as Gold was pegged to major currencies up until 1967. Full Story
You are watching the collapse firsthand on a daily basis and in real time. It doesn't make sense to ask "when?" if you understand you are living through it each day. Your only job, if you understand what is happening is to be prepared. Be prepared to the best of your ability, being just one second too late might as well mean forever! Full Story
The Federal Reserve economic stimulus plan is edging toward the Twilight Zone now that the Fed sees its recovery about to be eaten by an economic apocalypse greater than its imagination could conceive. Though many think of central bankers as stogy and uncreative, the Fed has been quite creative when it comes to massive economic ideas that don’t work or are extremely repressive to normal market functioning. Full Story
Silver finally managed to push through its upside resistance just above the $14.50 level this week and attracted some additional upside follow through as the US Dollar weakness brought on the macro trade ( Dollar down – BUY commodities). For that matter copper also rallied, as did platinum. Clearly the latter two metals are not moving higher based on signs of increasing demand but rather because of those macro trades just referenced. It is purely a matter of money flows related to the movements in the foreign exchange markets, especially considering that fact that the preference in the markets at the moment is generally RISK AVOIDANCE. Full Story
Jeffrey Nichols of Rosland Capital, returns to the show with his latest insights on the precious metals sector. A new uptrend suggests the multi-year selloff may be reversing course. With signs of sluggish economic output, our guest suggests that Fed policymakers could back-peddle on the new interest rate policy. US equities could be entering a bear market, given media reports of a domestic retail "Apocalypse", with thousand retail store closings. Now that gold has recovered by nearly $100 from the recent lows, gold and silver investments represent the best portfolio insurance currently available. Full Story
After doing nothing in Far East trading on their Friday, the gold price ticked down a hair at the London open—and began to creep quietly higher from there. Then from shortly after 11 a.m. GMT in London—and until the job numbers were released, gold traded ruler flat. At that point the price got hammered for fifteen bucks by 9:05 a.m. EST, but began to crawl higher from there. The surprise was that the big rally of the day started around 2:45 p.m. in the thinly-traded electronic market—and virtually every dollar of Friday’s gains came during the next seventy-five minutes of trading. The buyer vanished at 4 p.m.—and it traded flat into the close. Full Story
Conclusion: the outlook for gold is brightening rapidly. Many observers are expecting it to do now what it has always done in recent years, when it has risen up to challenge its falling moving averages near to the top of its major downtrend channel, which is to do an about face and drop back down again, probably to new lows. This time however there is good chance that it will break out of its downtrend and possibly go into “meltup” mode, along with silver and Precious Metals stocks – especially PM stocks, which are horribly undervalued. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 7 February, 2016
There is something seriously wrong taking place in the markets today. This is also true in the paper gold and silver markets as well. For a paper precious metals futures market to function properly, there has to be ample supplies of physical metal. However, the ongoing trend of falling precious metal inventories points to big trouble in the paper gold and silver markets. Full Story
Last summer we warned that the collapse would begin in the fall of 2015 and less than two months later, stock markets around the world crashed. They then had a rebound in October, at which point we said they would not recover to the highs of the summer and would crash again, making 2016 a bloodbath. That happened just as we predicted. The markets around the world were heavily in the red for January. Full Story
A very choppy week for markets and stocks until Friday when the downtrend resumed well. I tried several trades this past week and took mostly small losses, but we have two trades who are working very, very well and paying for those losses and much more. I usually have a pretty good win/loss ratio but not this week, but by keeping losses small, we’re still way ahead of the game. Full Story
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