We’ve believed that Gold would need to break $1100 before we thought a bottom could start to develop. While that could still be the case, we are starting to see building evidence that precious metals could be forming a bottom. Full Story
First, for all you right minded wording detectives out there, you are absolutely right… inflation is not rising prices and deflation is not dropping prices. Also, deflation is not two measures of a heavily manipulated bond market (chart 1) dropping impulsively. But for the sake of argument, let’s realize that Main Street does indeed call $4 regular at the pump “inflation” and every several years when a scare crops up they call dropping stocks and house prices “deflation”. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 12 December, 2014
The prevailing valuations in the lofty US stock markets are increasingly becoming a bone of contention. Wall Street calmly asserts stocks are fairly valued or even cheap, since it has a huge vested interest in keeping people fully-invested. But a growing chorus of dissenters is disputing that idyllic notion, warning that stock valuations are very high and portend great downside risk. Indeed, topping valuations abound. Full Story
Eldorado Gold has aggressively pursued building mines in ‘tricky’ jurisdictions – in particular China. But right now, Eldorado Gold is looking to restructure its ownership of the Chinese assets. It is planning to partially divest itself of its Chinese assets, placing them into a new company listed in China, and partially owned by new Chinese investors. Full Story
When you boil it down, it’s pretty simple. You might have to make some adjustments to protect against inflation and market exposure. The right adjustments will reduce risk and have minimal effects on your investment income. On the flip side, doing nothing may have negative, life-altering consequences. Full Story
Last week I wrote that contrary to the prevailing mood US dollar strength could reverse at any time. This week I look at another aspect of the dollar, which almost certainly will become a significant source of supply: a global shift out of it by foreign holders. Full Story
The drop in commodity, and especially oil prices, has been spectacular. The price action has generated a wide range of commentary. Some say this is a reflection of the true state of the global economy. Like the Baltic dry goods index or electricity consumption. Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, The Linn Group - 11 December, 2014
The charts above all point to the market being in an uptrend. The last part, the Slow Stochastic Study on the Daily Chart needs to embed. If it does I will issue a buy signal with a specific entry point. The exit point will be directly tied to when the embedded Slow Stochastic reading is lost. Upside targets are mentioned above. If the Slow Stochastic reading doesn’t embed, I will not issue a buy signal. This leaves tomorrow as a very important day. Full Story
This week’s Outside the Box continues with a theme that I and my colleague Worth Wray have been hammering on for some time: the very real potential for a rising dollar to trigger the next global financial crisis. We are concerned about the consequences of multi-speed economic growth around the world and the growing divergence between major central banks. In our opinion, if these trends persist, they likely mean (1) a major US dollar rally, (2) a rapid unwind of QE-induced capital flows to emerging markets, (3) a hard slide in fragile emerging-market and commodity-exporter currencies, and (4) financial shocks capable of ushering in a new global financial crisis. Full Story
With little fanfare or notice, the CME Group has notified the CFTC that they plan to institute trading collars for Comex precious metals trading. At present, these collars are planned to go into effect on Monday, December 22. Trading collars or "limits" are certainly not out of the ordinary. In the commodity markets, they have long been in place to limit the daily fluctuations of the grains. In S&P futures, collars have existed for years, brought about in large part by The Crash of 1987. Full Story
It’s Wednesday afternoon, an hour after the NYSE close. I wasn’t planning on writing tomorrow – like last week, in lieu of an extended Audioblog. However, given how close the “end game” appears to be, I felt compelled to keep you a step ahead of the evil “powers that be” – whose market manipulations have become so egregious, it’s difficult to believe anyone can’t see them. Full Story
One of my old rules of trading is that whenever a major asset class, index, or other benchmark has a sudden, rapid move in price, something blows up. Sky high. That’s because people get used to regimes. They get used to a certain state of affairs with a lack of volatility. They become complacent. Maybe they stop hedging. Maybe they allow themselves to have unbounded downside risk. Maybe they start gambling. Full Story
Oil is not quite as powerful a weapon against modern-day Russia as one might think. By arguing that the slump in oil prices will finish off Russia just like it did the Soviet Union, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in the Daily Telegraph, is forgetting how far Russia has come since those dark days. It is true that the USSR couldn’t cope with falling oil revenues and that Saudi Arabia is credited with helping to break up the former empire by dramatically increasing oil production from 2 million to 10 million barrels per day in 1985. Full Story
A few weeks back I wrote a piece titled "why don't you listen to them?". The subjects were Paul Craig Roberts and David Stockman because both were previously employed at top level positions in Washington and are both are trying to warn a sleeping American population as to what is really coming. At the time, I thought is was important to highlight their on target logic exactly BECAUSE they were from inside of Washington. I'd like to do the same type of analysis again but instead choose another individual with a very long term track record from the private sector. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 11 December, 2014
In the context of the gold price, many relate the net long/short position in the US.$ as an influence on the gold price. To a small extent this may be true, but not, in our opinion, to an extent that actually affects the gold price. Full Story
The incessant commentary about the FED hiking rates is supported only by government data. Retail sales appear great as does the employment situation. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and mine is that the data is fabricated. The rationale is simple. The FED is out of bullets. They cannot be zero bound when the next downturn comes. They cannot be zero bound when the equity market goes into a bear market. There is however a very big problem with the rate hike camp. The yield curve is collapsing and the FED has never raised rates in any environment other than a rising yield curve. Full Story
Since the beginning of 2013, gold’s price action has been irrational. The fundamentals are getting better for gold in respect to demand and supply, but we see sudden, wild swings, often to the downside, on no news and for no apparent reason. Full Story
Uncertainty and fear are two of the biggest factors that move gold prices. If they increase, investors buy the yellow metal to hedge and protect their wealth. Going into 2015, I see these two factors coming into play and taking the precious metal’s prices higher. Full Story
It's not just surfers who scrutinize wave patterns. Steven Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave International, uses the Wave Principle to predict the movements of commodities and the stock market based on a number of factors, including sentiment. In this interview with The Gold Report, he reads the waves and shares their indications that the stock market is headed for a downtrend, while commodities will move up, although not in a direct line. Full Story
By: Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories - 10 December, 2014
The market is catching up to the idea that production growth in the US is fast enough to present a new paradigm. Ominously for OPEC the US is not the only place with the right geology. There are several areas in central and Eastern Europe and Asia that could generate significant production growth if enough capital was applied to them. Full Story
This warning comes from “Big Al” Greenspan, age 88. He’s been in the news a lot lately, speaking with Gillian Tett of the Financial Times at the Council on Foreign Relations and at the New Orleans Investment Conference. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 10 December, 2014
The disagreement may be important for Suchecki's implicit reminder that it would be an exceedingly rare central bank that wanted free markets enough that it was willing to extend them to its own currency. Indeed, while gold advocates are inclined to root for China and Russia in the international currency war or competition because the governments of those countries seem to recognize gold's monetary function, China and Russia don't want free and transparent markets and limited and accountable government any more than Western governments do. Full Story
Many who will read this work have been sitting patiently waiting for the house of cards to collapse. For me personally, I confess the current maniacal financial bubble has gone on much longer than I ever imagined. What did we miss? Are we wrong or just early? In my opinion, we were early, mathematically correct yet the "rules" changed. For my part, I can say that I missed just how much "leverage" could be used to extend the game. In the current instance, we are not even talking about garden variety leverage. Full Story
Nick: Okay Doug, so looking around, what markets look cheap to you today? Doug: I saw recently that many stocks in Greece are selling at around four times earnings. But I don’t know what the quality of their earnings are. Of course, the dividend yield on Greek stocks isn’t very high, and dividends are, I think, the best real indicator of how much free cash flow there actually is in a company. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 10 December, 2014
In conclusion, we are inclined to say that money-supply stability is the ideal, but that wouldn't be completely correct. Although it could reasonably be argued that a stable money supply would be a vast improvement on what we have today, it would not be the optimum situation. For example, the current monetary system is so unstable that maintaining a constant money supply while keeping everything else in place would quickly lead to monetary and financial-system collapse. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 10 December, 2014
After the U.S. Mint updated its bullion figures on Monday, 2014 Silver Eagle sales reached a new annual record surpassing last years total by nearly 200,000. Not only was 2014 a banner year for world’s most sought after official coin, the Silver-Gold Eagle ratio also hit a new record high. Full Story
The end of QE3 neither implies the real abandon of purchasing assets (due to reinvesting interest and principal payments and rolling over retiring Treasuries) nor the permanent exclusion bond-buying programs from the tools of monetary policy. Investors should also be aware that the end of QE3 does not rule out loose monetary policy. Why? Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 9 December, 2014
Thank you for coming here tonight even though I can speak only English. I'm afraid that when it comes to German I don't know scheisse. Maybe I have an excuse. Mark Twain tried very hard to learn German and wrote afterward that German should be classified with the dead languages because only the dead had the time to learn it. Full Story
For two college summers and Christmas vacations, I worked the docks at the Port of Tacoma. The work was a little dangerous, but it wasn’t hard because everybody seemed to spend just as much time playing cards as working. And the money was fantastic: $13 an hour back in the 1970s! As of 2013, the average longshore worker was paid $147,000, as well as benefits worth $82,000 a year! Full Story
So, with the greater weight of evidence having us maintain the course of looking for lower lows, we will await our initial 5 waves down for wave 1 of V, followed by a corrective 3 waves up in wave 2 of V as our signal that we are in the final run to lower lows. Until we see this cue, I have to maintain the perspective that this c-wave of wave IV can still push even higher to our secondary target zone in the metals and miners: silver - 17.80 region, GDX - 22 region, and GLD – 120 region. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 9 December, 2014
There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it's much easier to grab a set of convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you choose to look at and which you choose to ignore. Full Story
This year witnessed the bottom of one of several components of the 120-year cycle of inflation and deflation. The cycle to which I’m referring is the 24-year cycle. Of particular relevance is that this cycle answers to the cycle of war. Since 1894 when the previous 120-year Grand Super Cycle bottomed and a new one began, there have been four military conflagrations at each subsequent bottom of the 24-year cycle. Most of these wars have been major in scope. Full Story
In addition to the bullish flag pattern, there’s an inverse head and shoulder bull continuation pattern that looks solid. The target of this pattern is the $1275 - $1280 area. Is the Western gold community going to receive an early Christmas present, in the form of another rally in the gold price? These charts suggest they are! Full Story
The official US National Debt is about $18,000,000,000,000, or 57 times the current market price of the US gold SUPPOSEDLY stored at Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and elsewhere. With so much paper in the system it is easy to see why the Fed publicly denigrates gold. Full Story
Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has arrived to the U.S. for large deposits at commercial banks. This is something we have already seen in Europe over the last few months and a sign (at least to me) that stress is again building. As of January 1st, bank capital will be classified differently making some large and very mobile deposits at large banks a potential liability and thus not profitable. This is being done because of the "mobility" of these deposits, the worry is the potential speed of flight capital if (when) it begins to run. Full Story
A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years. More alarming, even for die-hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak US dollar, have reversed. Throw in a correction-defying Wall Street stock market and the never-ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream and it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold; the bear is here to stay. Full Story
Where to start on this Monday morning amidst myriad “horrible headlines” from around the world? How about the damning quote from one of the world’s most manipulative criminal powerful organizations, the “Central bank’s Central bank” itself –the “Bank of International Settlements.” Their latest quarterly report was just released, containing perhaps the most prophetic comments imaginable of the imploding global financial situation – which we assure you, with their abundance of inside information wasn’t published for “show”…i.e., “the highly abnormal is becoming uncomfortably normal” and “there is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine.” Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 8 December, 2014
In an interview today with Russia Today's Sophie Shevardnadze, Sir Howard Davis, former deputy governor of the Bank of England and former director of the London School of Economics, makes the most elementary mistake in his objection to restoration of a gold standard for currencies. That is, Davis says a gold standard "would radically reduce the amount of credit and would cause a worldwide depression that would make the 1920s look like a holiday." Full Story
By most accounts, major U.S. markets have performed positively this year, generating significant wealth for many investors. The S&P 500 Index has made fresh highs pretty regularly and is currently up 12 percent, and so far the Nasdaq Composite Index has returned 14 percent. Full Story
Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates. Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn? Full Story
As suggested in last week, one should expect sovereign currency wars to do nothing but accelerate moving forward as more and more countries slip into recession, with China’s surprise rate cut on Friday the next domino to fall. And again, this trend should do nothing but accelerate as crack up boom process unfolds, which will continue until something like political revolution that destabilizes the establishment pops the bubbles. Full Story
The financial world focuses far too much on stocks. The stock market, despite being at record highs (meaning record market capitalizations) remains one of the smallest, and least sophisticated markets on the planet. Consider that stocks, even at current lofty levels, have a global market capitalization of slightly over $60 trillion. In contrast, the global bond market is well over $100 trillion. And the global currency market trades OVER $5.3 trillion per day. Full Story
Since I began writing this letter some 15 years ago, I’ve always done an annual forecast letter, generally in the first week of January. That letter is typically the most-read issue of the year, and I spend more time thinking about it than any other letter. I typically take the last week of the year off from writing just to concentrate on my research, and I often begin to compile my reading material the first week in December, which the calendar tells us is now. Helping me this year will be my associate Worth Wray and a few members of the Mauldin Economics team, and of course my many friends and readers. Full Story
Do you remember seeing old pictures of the Great Depression which depicted "lines"? There were two types, bread lines and also lines to the front doors of banks. While we don't see any bread lines today, trust me, there are bread lines in every single state, and long ones at that. Nearly 50 million people in the U.S. survive on SNAP, EBT cards or whatever they are called in your state. Can you imagine the "confidence" it would instill if each day on your way to work you saw massive lines of people waiting for breakfast? Full Story
China’s central bank seems to view the current price levels in gold as opportunistic. The Peoples Bank of China circulated a draft plan to further ease import restrictions on bringing gold into China. Qualified miners, all banks that are members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and even commemorative gold and silver coin makers would be eligible to import bullion. The move would hopefully cut the premium paid to direct gold imports to China and may encourage miners and refiners to seek opportunities outside of China to secure gold. Full Story
Bob Hoye - Summary: Changes in global capital flows are driving funds into US equities / dollar pushing the commodities / energy sectors lower. Harry S. Dent Jr. - Summary: Now that India abolished the 80/20 gold import rule, which required 20% of imports to be exported as jewelry, and the Netherlands secretly repatriated 150 tons of gold from NY Fed vaults, demand is likely to soar. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 7 December, 2014
In a surprising update, there were two large gold withdrawals from the Comex on Friday. Not only were these large withdrawals, they came from Brinks and Scotia Mocatta’s Registered inventories. Even though the Comex holds a total of 7.7 million ounces of gold, only 10% of this amount is stored in the registered category. Full Story
Last year, many in 2013 were calling for the price of gold and silver to double, and more! Then came 2014 and those dashed hopes were pushed back to the second half of 2014. Earlier, in the first half of the year, we said that the second half could likely be more of the same, as in 2013. With just a few weeks away from the end of the year, prospects for 2015 can equally be brought into question re PM price appreciation. Full Story
The week saw some pretty wild action that told us markets and stocks were going to correct, but that was short-lived and now we are back on track for higher prices into years end. It was a blessing in disguise as we locked some gains and some losses and had the chance to reset and enter even better stocks who I’ve been trying to get into but was waiting for proper buy points to come, and come they did mid-week. Full Story
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