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Weekly Archive

By: David Brady, CFA - 12 October, 2018

Gold has finally caught a bid this week and is up to its highest level since July 31. The fact that the U.S. and China appear to have agreed on a meeting between Trump and Xi on trade issues at the next G20, coupled with the U.S. treasury’s decision not to label China a currency manipulator, was likely the biggest factor in Gold’s rise yesterday. Full Story

By: Adam Hamilton, CPA - 12 October, 2018

The lofty stock markets suffered a sharp selloff this week that may prove a major inflection point. There was one lone sector that bucked the heavy selling to surge in the carnage, the gold miners’ stocks. They are the last cheap sector in these bubble-valued stock markets, long overlooked and neglected. Wildly undervalued today, the gold stocks have great potential to soar dramatically even if stock markets keep weakening. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo - 12 October, 2018

To the surprise of many investors, the precious metals have rallied while the broader markets continue to sell-off. Currently, both gold and silver are solidly in the green while the major indexes were all the red following a huge sell-off yesterday. The Dow Jones Index has lost nearly 1,000 points in the past two days while the gold price is up nearly $25. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 12 October, 2018

It seems the pundits have lost their way. The reasons for the market moves have now confounded most market participants and pundits to such an extent, and they are stretching so far to provide a reason for a market move, that we have moved from the ridiculous to the sublime. Full Story

By: Arkadiusz Sieron - 12 October, 2018

We know, it’s just a symbol. But it’s a powerful symbol of the most severe recession since the Great Depression. Yup, it’s another article about the Lehman Brothers’ collapse. But we really invite you to read it, as we thoroughly analyze the impact on that bankruptcy on the price of the yellow metal. You will also find out what can we learn from the 2008 banking crisis for the gold market. Full Story

By: Alasdair Macleod - 11 October, 2018

We are on the verge of moving into an era of high interest rates, so markets will behave differently from any time since the early-1980s. There are enough similarities with the post-Bretton Woods era of the 1970s to give us some guidance as to how markets are likely to evolve in the foreseeable future. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 11 October, 2018

Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments returns to the show after a two year hiatus with a unique and positive outlook on the gold sector.
Merk Investments is monitoring the yield curve closely; while inversions typically mark recessions, occasional false signals are still possible.
Using central banking policy as a guide, the new Fed Chief, Jerome Powell is expected to continue raising rates a bit too far similar to predecessors.
The market has not yet fully priced the additional rate hikes and impending inflationary pressures. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 11 October, 2018

Rising interest rates are good for metals. Rising interest rates are bad for metals. We have heard the arguments from both sides. In fact, I think it is no different when people claim inflation is good for gold relative to those who believe deflation is good for gold. Full Story

By: Arkadiusz Sieron - 11 October, 2018

Why did the bears awake? As always, there are many explanations. Some people point out rising interest rates. Indeed, as the Fed has been gradually rising the federal funds rate, the bond yields followed suit. As one can see in the chart below, the 10-year Treasury yields jumped above 3.2 percent in October, the highest level in a few years. Higher rates make bonds more appealing relatively to the more risky equities. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 11 October, 2018

I have been hearing for years how gold is manipulated to go down, and is expected to rise when allowed to trade freely. So, according to these manipulation theorists, gold is really only supposed to move in one direction and would never see any corrections. Full Story

By: Clive Maund - 10 October, 2018

The U.S. stock market is now at a dangerous unprecedented overbought extreme, as the charts that we will look at in this update make abundantly clear, after years of being wafted higher by a combination of QE, ZIRP and stock buybacks, and latterly Trump's tax bonanza, which has kept the party going by making windfall cash available for still more buybacks. Full Story

By: Clint Siegner - 10 October, 2018

Some of last week’s weakness in the stock market was attributed to surprisingly week jobs report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls came in significantly below projections. However, much of that weakness was explained by Hurricane Florence. And the headline unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% – the lowest in almost 50 years. Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 10 October, 2018

The dominant theme from the “Reverse Bucket List” is that honest money has suffered because of the policies of bankers and politicians. Debt based fiat currencies have replaced honest currencies. People must protect their assets and retirement from the dangers of dishonest money, ever-increasing debts and market corrections or crashes. The powers-that-be sell dreams and delusions based upon debt and paper. Full Story

By: USAGOLD - 10 October, 2018

October is the month most closely associated with markets going bump in the night – 1907, 1929, 1987, 1997, 2007, 2008. Of all the October surprises, the 1929 crash had the most lasting consequences. Stocks declined 50% in the two months of September and October, 1929. (See chart below.) Before it was all over in 1932, stocks dropped a breathtaking 90% and did not return the old high of roughly 380 until the mid-1950s – one-quarter century later. Full Story

By: Dave Kranzler - 10 October, 2018

I don’t necessarily expect to see the stock market tank in the next few weeks though, based on watching the intra-day trading action the past couple of weeks leads me to believe that the market is vulnerable at any time to a huge sell-off. The abrupt spike in Treasury yields plus market technicals – like the statistic cited above – lead me to believe that the cracks in the stock market’s “floor” are widening. Full Story

By: John Rubino - 10 October, 2018

At first the effect on the broader economy is minimal, so consumers, companies and governments don’t let a slight uptick in financing costs interfere with their borrowing and spending. But eventually rising rates begin to bite and borrowers get skittish, throwing the leverage machine into reverse and producing an equities bear market and Main Street recession. Full Story

By: Merk Research - 10 October, 2018

At elevated levels consumer confidence measures can act as a contrarian indicator... Full Story

By: Craig Hemke - 10 October, 2018

Certain precious metals analysts are once again claiming that, soon, the Banks will be "on your side". This isn't true, it hasn't been true and it won't ever be true so long as the fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme continues. Since much of the current optimism is based upon analysis of the CFTC-generated Commitment of Traders report, let's simply take these reports at face value. We can assess whether anything has recently changed in regards to COMEX silver and determine whether or not the Banks are now "on your side". Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 10 October, 2018

The annual “In Gold We Trust” report by Liechtenstein-based investment firm Incrementum is a must-read account of the gold market, and its just-released chartbook for the 2018 edition is no exception. The strengthening U.S. dollar has lately dented the price of gold, and rising interest rates are making some yield-bearing financial assets more attractive as a safe haven. But as Incrementum shows, there are many risks right now that favor owning gold in your portfolio. Full Story

By: Ira Epstein - 9 October, 2018

Will gold’s consolidation ever end? Full Story

By: Daniel R. Amerman, CFA - 9 October, 2018

Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes, and even when the next recession may hit. A continuing cycle of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve has pushed Fed Funds rates up 2% from their floor. This same cycle has contributed to rapidly rising long term interest rates, with 10 year Treasury yields rising to 3.22% by the market close on October 5th, 2018. Full Story

By: Ricky Wen - 9 October, 2018

The main takeaway from this week is that the market is now in a high level consolidation mode hovering against major support on the higher timeframes. This means that the prior month’s low at 2865 is now the must hold support in terms of this backtest to the downside range to complete the rectangle range. Otherwise, if price action fails to hold here then it likely morphs from high level consolidation/inside month into a breakdown month towards 2820/2803 next major support levels. Full Story

By: Stewart Thomson - 9 October, 2018

Gold continues to majestically carve out the right side of a double bottom pattern. That pattern has a $1270 target price. That should be achieved easily as a tidal wave of positive forces are converging on the gold market right now. Chindian demand, tariffs, peaking US corporate earnings, QT, inflation, and many other gold-positive factors are all in play, all at the same time! Full Story

By: Mike Gleason - 9 October, 2018

It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book The Gold Watcher: Demystifying Gold Investing, and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast. Full Story

By: Peter Schiff - 9 October, 2018

Last week Donald Trump, in his own estimation, succeeded in replacing what he claimed to be the "worst trade deal in history" with what he claims was "the best trade deal in history." If true, this would not only make good on one of his central campaign promises, but it would be a genuinely significant development. In reality, the unveiling of the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal is just the latest iteration of the President's talent for branding. As is the case in other aspects of the president's view of economic matters, the difference between then and now is almost purely semantic. Full Story

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 9 October, 2018

Gold has struggled to rebound despite an extreme oversold condition and extreme bearish sentiment. Nevertheless, conditions for Gold have not worsened in recent days. In fact, Gold as well as gold stocks appear to be basing for a potential rebound into the holiday season. While some gold bulls expect a major bottom, we aren’t in that camp because the fundamentals are not in place yet to support a sustained advance. Full Story

By: Arkadiusz Sieron - 9 October, 2018

Despite the weak headline job gains, the September edition of the Employment Situation Report was strong. The payrolls were probably affected by the hurricane, while the last time the unemployment rate was lower was in December 1969. All that means that the US labor market remains solid, driving the whole economy. Thus, the FOMC should stay on track to continue gradually raising interest rates, with the next hike in the federal funds rate likely to come in December. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 9 October, 2018

According to a recent Cornerstone Macro report, the three most influential macro trends this year have been 1) the strengthening U.S. dollar, 2) the flattening yield curve and 3) slowing global manufacturing expansion. I’ve written about all three topics numerous times this year, but the one I’ve watched the most closely has been global manufacturing, as measured by the purchasing manager’s index (PMI). Since its 12-month high of 54.5 in December 2017, the PMI has declined in eight of the past nine months. September marked the fifth straight month of slower manufacturing growth. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman - 9 October, 2018

Interest rates have risen to levels where they are finally getting noticed, even on giddy Wall Street and in the undiscerning precincts of television business news. In recent days, nasty selloffs in the stock market have been attributed to correspondingly large leaps in Treasury yields. The move since late August has been unusually steep. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 8 October, 2018

The best performing metal this week was gold, up 0.90 percent. Gold traders and analysts maintained their bullish outlooks this week amid bets that the gold selloff has passed, according to the weekly Bloomberg survey. In a big surprise, the yellow metal is headed for a weekly gain and so is the U.S. dollar. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner - 8 October, 2018

Last week, we shined a spotlight on a crack in the monetary system that few people outside of Switzerland (and not many inside either) were aware of. There is permanent gold backwardation measured in Swiss francs. Everyone knows that the Swiss franc has a negative interest rate, but so far as we know, Keith is the only one who predicted this would lead to its collapse (and he was quite early, having written that in January 2015). Full Story

By: Steven Saville - 8 October, 2018

In a 13th August blog post I noted that for the first time this year the sentiment backdrop had become decisively supportive of the gold price. I also noted that the fundamental backdrop remained unequivocally gold-bearish, and then attempted to answer the question: What will be the net effect of these counteracting forces? Full Story

By: David Chapman - 8 October, 2018

The warnings were stark. Italy is teetering on the edge of a financial disaster. Or is it? One has to wonder. It was in late 2009 that the Greek debt crisis burst onto the stage, triggered by structural issues in its economy and an enormous debt load. Government debt had soared to almost €300 billion in a €200 billion economy, giving them a debt/GDP ratio of 150%. Full Story

By: Gary Savage - 8 October, 2018

For years now analysts, and the media have been trying to convince everyone there is no inflation despite central banks massive quantitative easing programs. Of course this is ridiculous. They just choose to ignore where the inflation has manifested. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 8 October, 2018

Let’s start with his first premise. He suggests that in order to understand the market we must understand that it is the Fed’s responsibility to “maintain orderly economic growth and price stability.” I have recently penned an article regarding my perspective on the Fed’s control of our market, and have explained why the common view of the Fed is based more upon fallacies than fact. Full Story

By: Plunger - 8 October, 2018

Could everything have changed in a 24 hour period? Apparently, Yes, Over the span of 24 hours markets woke up and realized that the FED may be at the cusp of committing Policy Error. Recently bonds have been teetering on the edge and this week Jerome Powell gave bonds a push off the ledge. Bonds delivered a message and the stock market was listening. Stocks got derailed along with bonds. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 7 October, 2018

Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies LLC returns to Goldseek.com Radio with his latest economic insights.
While most analysts are oblivious to the current financial risks, Michael Pento says the next crisis is already underway.
Bill Murphy of GATA.org rejoins the show with encouragement for PMs bulls.
Gold miners just found a 90 kg $15 million "mother lode" gold nugget in Western Australia after only 4 days of work. Full Story

By: Ed Steer - 7 October, 2018

The gold price chopped sideways to down a bit in Far East and very early London trading -- and the low tick, such as it was, came a few minutes after the London open. From the point, it began to head unsteadily higher, but obviously ran into 'something' at, or shortly after, the morning gold fix in London. It chopped very unsteadily higher from there until the afternoon gold fix -- and then was sold a bit lower until noon in New York. It traded sideways from there until shortly before 3 p.m. in the thinly-traded after-hours market -- and it popped a few dollars into the close from there. Full Story

By: John Mauldin - 7 October, 2018

I have to confess something: I run a huge trade deficit. It’s not with China or Mexico, but with Amazon. I buy all sorts of goods from them and Jeff Bezos has yet to spend a penny with me. It’s just not fair. Sound ridiculous? That’s exactly what it is. Totally absurd. I like Amazon. I’m happy with the items the company ships to me and (I presume) Amazon is happy to receive my money. We both win. Full Story

By: Rambus - 7 October, 2018

Several weeks ago we looked at some resistance points for gold and silver from the short to the longer term time perspective. Below is a daily chart for gold which starts with the 2018 five point rectangle reversal pattern which broke down in May. The backtest to the underside of the five point rectangle took about five weeks to complete, forming a bearish rising wedge. From that point the impulse move down began in earnest stopping in mid July to form a small rectangle. After trading sideways for about three weeks gold broke down from that small rectangle and finally bottomed in mid August where it began a countertrend rally. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo - 7 October, 2018

One of the worst things for an over-heated and extremely leveraged economy is rising interest rates. So, with the recent 2-2.25% interest rate, big trouble is on the horizon, Also, with higher interest rates, the U.S. Treasury will have to fork out even more money to service its debt. In just a little more than two years, the U.S. Fed Funds Rate jumped by nearly 2%. Full Story

By: Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith - 7 October, 2018

QE and developed economies' central bank policies of easy money have distorted and corrupted the global supply chain.
The inevitable outcome was clearly evident in 2013-2015 but effectively ignored by the corporate global supply chain players in an Emerging Market race to capture economic growth. Full Story

By: John Rubino - 7 October, 2018

If this sounds like paradise for precious metals, that’s because it is – in theory. Negative interest rates offset the carrying costs of gold and silver stored in vaults, making bullion obviously superior to dollars/euros/yen stored in bank accounts. An added attraction is the new generation of gold-backed debit cards and cryptocurrencies that add portability to these ancient forms of money. Full Story

By: Nathan McDonald - 7 October, 2018

Once again the European Union will eventually have to come in and "save" the day, making the people of Greece even further debt slaves to their highly corrupt system, as they make demands that they know will ultimately not be kept. The hollowing out of Greece will continue on for now, as it has for the last eight years, fixing nothing, solving nothing. The can will continue to be kicked down the road, until it can no longer be kicked. Eventually, the well will run dry and the people of Greece will tire of being squeezed by the EU and its un-elected officials. Full Story

By: David Morgan - 7 October, 2018

Goldman Sachs startup Circle, the Boston-based crypto finance company, has gone live with its stable coin called the US Dollar Coin, or USDC. This is the first cryptocurrency released by a major financial institution. In order to avoid instability and inflation inherent to other unregulated cryptocurrencies, the value of the USDC will be tied to the dollar. Does this mean the FED already has a replacement for the U.S. dollar? Full Story




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