In the annals of silver in the modern age, there have been two well-known instances of very large investor accumulations of the metal. First came the purchase by the Hunt Brothers and their associates in early 1980, followed by the purchase by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, 17 years later. The Hunts were said to control around 100 million ounces of actual metal (plus another 100 million ounces in long paper futures contracts), while Berkshire held as many as 129 million ounces. Full Story
The stock markets have rocketed higher since Trump’s election win on hopes for big corporate tax cuts. This extreme rally has left stocks exceedingly overvalued and overbought today. A major selloff is long overdue and likely imminent. When stocks inevitably roll over and mean revert lower to rebalance away euphoric sentiment, gold is the main beneficiary. Gold investment demand soars when stocks materially slide. Full Story
Crypto and stock prices grabbed most of the investment headlines in 2017. But by the end of 2018, a different asset class is bound to spark investor’s attention. There are multiple reasons for that, starting with the fact that no trend or bull market lasts forever. But it’s about more than just the prolonged run in equities and runaway prices in cryptos. There are three specific developments I’ve been tracking that all point to 2018 being the year for a decisive breakout in gold… Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org, returns with extremely bullish comments on the PMs. Millions of new Bitcoin millionaires may convert a fraction of their digital wealth for something tangible resembling Bitcoin that they can hold in their hands - gold bullion. Stacey Herbert and Max Keiser of the Keiser Report on RT recommend gold and continue to add to their stockpiles. Full Story
U.S. stocks, according to many measures, are the most over-valued in history. We live in a Bubble Zone! Bitcoin and other cryptos are definitely in a bubble, but they could rise even higher. Bonds yield little, and in many European countries, less than zero. Central banks have created this distortion to the detriment of savers, insurance companies and pension funds. Full Story
Since January 2013 we have been using the worldwide Semiconductor Equipment industry as a leader within the Semiconductor sector, which is an economic cyclical leader itself. That month we noted a positive move in Equipment bookings, which became a (3 month) trend that spring. This trend was used to project positive economic signals to come. Full Story
The U.S. Stock Market is reaching its biggest bubble in history. When the price of the Dow Jones Index only moves in one direction… UP, it is setting up for one heck of a crash. While market corrections aren’t fun for investors’ portfolios, they are NECESSARY. However, it seems that corrections are no longer allowed to take place because if they did, then the tremendous leverage in the market might turn a normal correction into panic selling and a meltdown on the exchanges. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, outlines his price outlook for stocks, Bitcoin and the PMs in 2018. Arch Crawford remains a staunch PMs bull, noting that once gold closes above $1,320, a new uptrend is expected, perhaps taking the yellow metal above the former 2011 peak. The discussion turns to the crypto-domain. In less than one decade, Bitcoin climbed by 1.5 million fold today ($0.01 x 1,500,000 = $15,000). Full Story
I fully expect the Government’s Census Bureau to post a mind-blowing headline retail sales number for December. Hyperbolic headline economic statistics derived from mysterious “seasonal adjustments” based on questionable sampling methodology is part of the official propaganda policy mandated by the Executive Branch of Government. Full Story
If you want to make money investing, you first need to understand the structure of the asset classes in our current financial system. Everyone likes to go bonkers over stocks, but the reality is that the stock market is in fact one of the smallest and least liquid markets on the planet. All told, US stocks are roughly $26 trillion in market cap. By way of contrast, the US debt markets (Treasuries, corporate, municipal, local, etc.) is well north of $60 trillion. Full Story
Beginning in late 2016, we began to question what we termed "The Generally Accepted Narrative of 2017". This allowed us to accurately forecast rising precious metal prices last year. For 2018, we will generally rely upon three overriding themes, and we discuss them in detail today. Full Story
If Tom Cruise was Born on the Fourth of July, then he can thank Thomas Paine, who it can be said was born on January 10, 1776 with the publication of his incendiary essay, Common Sense, that argued for independence from England. He priced it cheaply (two shillings), argued passionately, and wrote in a direct style so that readers could understand him. Full Story
Last week, I asked, “What would make 2018 more productive for you? Please email me the first thing that comes to your mind.” Before I summarize the responses, a big thank you to the 800+ people who sent me personalized responses. Someone pointed out that asking the question itself already helped because it motivated her to review her plans and targets. Full Story
I love sitting down with Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report, not only does he share great information it is a lot of fun with some laughter thrown in to keep these all-too-serious conversations a little lighter. When you’re dealing with such subjects as our monetary past and what we see as our monetary future, humor is a necessary ingredient. Full Story
Some nasty dark clouds are forming on the financial horizon as total world debt is increasing nearly three times as fast as total global wealth. But, that’s okay because no one cares about the debt, only the assets matter nowadays. You see, as long as debts are someone else’s problem, we can add as much debt as we like… or so the market believes. Full Story
The precious metals sector moved higher in the first days of this year, but based on yesterday’s decline and the current price levels, 2018 is already a down year for silver and mining stocks. Gold is almost flat. This is a subtle clue that the rally may have already ran its course. The confirmation comes from what happened yesterday. Miners continued their decline, invalidating the previous breakout, while gold finally joined the rest of the sector and started its own decline as well. Is the rally indeed over? Full Story
TMV is a 3 X short the TLT 20 year treasure bond etf. This trade is based on the TLT. For well over three years now the TLT has been building out what looks like a massive HS top with the top of the right shoulder now in play. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 250 shares of TMV, 3 X short the TLT, and buy 250 shares at the market at 18.83 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the right shoulder low on the daily chart for the TMV at 17.35. I’m anticipating the the right shoulder high on the TLT will be the ultimate high. There will be several more entry points if this trades starts to workout. Full Story
The rally in Gold and gold mining stocks easily surpassed our expectations and targets. The strength has been far more than we anticipated. The gold stocks blew past their 200-day moving averages while Gold blew past $1300/oz. Now it is time to take a technical look and focus on the key support and resistance targets. Full Story
Chinese New Year buying appears to have started early in December but it’s in a lull now. Indian dealers are also in no hurry to buy gold after a $90 rally. The COT report shows commercial traders adding 40,000 short gold contracts, which likely means they respect the $1320 resistance zone. So, gold stock traders can book light profits now. Rebuy lightly if gold trades at $1300. At $1270, all investors should be eager buyers! Full Story
Gold and silver premiums have been following the demand for physical metal lower in recent months. As investor selling ticked up, popular bullion products poured back into dealer inventories. The result has been some of the lowest premiums we’ve seen in a decade for items like gold and silver American Eagles. Full Story
Welcome to 2018. So far it looks the same as 2017. The President of the United States ended the old year and began the one with a barrage of tweets, including one threatening nuclear annihilation with the “Little Rocket Man” of North Korea. The world can only hope they keep it to each other and not involve the rest of us. Markets did well in 2017 as they have for the past eight years. Bitcoin did exceptionally well, gaining over 1,300% even as it was down 20% from its high. Most people should have seen their portfolios rise. It is not difficult making money in a rising market. The real test comes in a down market. Full Story
The price of gold and gold mining stocks were very competitive in 2017. The yellow metal ended the year up a little more than 13 percent—its best year since 2010—while gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, gained more than 11 percent. All of this occurred even as large-cap stocks regularly closed at all-time highs and cryptocurrencies invited massive speculation. Full Story
This video discussion between Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long is Part I of a three part series. The first part examines why 2018 is going to be the "Time For A Change". Thought there are many reasons the video focuses on four primary pillars with the aid of 26 supporting slides. Full Story
Time is more important than price. That’s what we – investors – are often made to believe regarding the future price movement. And rightfully so. The price could reach a bottom several dollars ahead of the predicted price target or it could break through it, leaving investors wondering, if there was a breakdown and thus they should expect to see another big downswing shortly. With time, things are clearer. The time for a given move is up and the price reverses. When is gold likely to finally bottom? Full Story
Precious metals sector is on major buy signal. Cycle is up, suggesting that the multi-month correction is now complete. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was platinum, up 4.3 percent as speculators cut their net bearish platinum positions. After being bullish for the previous three weeks, gold traders and analysts are neutral this week, according to a Bloomberg survey. However, the number of new investors for BullionVault hit the highest level since November 2016, according to the online gold vaulting firm. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Gordon Chang, author, television pundit, and columnist at the Daily Beast. Gordon is a frequent guest on Fox News, CNBC, and CNN, among others, and is one of the foremost experts on Asian economics and geopolitics, having written books on the subject and it's great to have him back on with us. Full Story
Short-term interest rates have been relentlessly rising since the second half of 2015. For example, 3-month LIBOR was 0.28% in July of that year. It is now 1.7%. This is just a result of the Fed centrally planning our economy, managing our interest rate for us. Long-term rates have not moved. The 10-year Treasury yield in July 2015 was 2.5%. It is now … 2.5%. Full Story
The market is now officially in the largest bubble relative to the economy in history. Warren Buffett once famously stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. This was the very metric he used when he decided to avoid investing during the Tech Bubble. Bill King of The King Report notes that based on this metric, stocks are now valued at 144.15% of US GDP, surpassing their previous peak set at the absolute top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000. Full Story
In a recent newsletter John Mauldin wrote: “It is monetary policy madness to raise rates and undertake quantitative tightening at the same time.” However, this is exactly what the Fed plans to do in 2018. Has the Fed gone mad? If mad is defined as diverging in an irrational way from normal practice then the answer to the above question is no. The Fed is following the same rule book it has always followed. Full Story
People who live in developed nations have grown used to inflation of around 2% a year over the last few decades. Why do prices generally rise by that amount? What drives the purchasing power of money in these countries? Why can’t prices stay constant year-over-year rather than increasing? To help answer some of these questions, let's go far back in time. We'll divide the last one thousand or so years into three monetary eras: the silver coin period, metal-backed notes, and fiat money. How would the nature of inflation have changed as you passed from one era into the next? Full Story
While the moniker for this missive is "Gold and Gold Miners," I just sit back in absolute AWE as the global equity investors (otherwise known as "Stock jockeys") have decided that "cash is TRASH!" and despite a massive "miss" in the employment numbers this morning, within seconds of the release, the spin doctors manning the equity trading desks deemed that number "bullish" because it is less inflationary and may cause the Fed to "pause." So dollar-yen rallies, the USD index has a minor pop, gold sells off, and stocks come out of the gate up another 0.25% with all of the bubblicious bravado of a high school quarterback getting his first win. Full Story
Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A returns with comments on cryptocurrencies and silver. Max Keiser of the Keiser Report on RT expects a global Central Bank to break ranks this year and plow billions in depreciating fiat money into Bitcoin and related Altcoins. Head of The Morgan Report, David Morgan rejoins the show with comments on Bitcoin, Altcoins and the PMs sector. Contrary to the mainstream opinion, BTC and Altcoins are here to stay; digital currency represents a decentralized alternative to antiquated fiat money. Full Story
The gold price spent all of Far East trading and most of London trading drifting quietly lower. There was a jump up at on the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. in New York, but that was dealt with in the usual manner. It got sold lower from there -- and the low tick of the day, such was it was, came minutes after 9:15 a.m. EST. It rallied until shortly before noon -- and at that point the price was capped and it chopped a bit lower as the Friday trading session moved along. Full Story
In the 1600s, Sir Isaac Newton presided over a (bi-metal) Gold and Silver Standard, with the flaw being the fix of silver to gold. In the 1900s, John Maynard Keynes “revolutionized” economics, with the result being certain economic collapse. In both cases there was a logical error in the key definition of “price”, which is critical to the stability of the economy. This note examines the problem and then goes on to present a workable Gold Standard, which it is argued, is the most stable frame of reference for our economy. Full Story
This video details gold and miners likely path over the next couple of months and explains how the flawed psychology of traders ensure this path. Full Story
The U.S. gold market suffered a net deficit this year compared to a small surplus in 2016. This was quite interesting because U.S. physical gold demand will be down considerably this year. In 2016, total U.S. gold demand was 212 metric tons versus an estimated 150 metric tons this year. The majority of the decline in U.S. gold demand is from the physical bar and coin sector that is down 56% in the first three quarters of 2017 compared to the same period last year. Full Story
So... in the past week, I’ve been asked for advice on Bitcoin by my brother-in-law, my local realtor, and close friends from as far away as Texas. None of them cared to learn what it actually is. Or how it works. They just wanted to understand why suddenly so many folks they know are trying to buy Bitcoin hand over fist. And, of course, should they buy in now, too? If you (or people you care about) have similar questions, this report is for you. Full Story
Greetings from Hong Kong, where the locals are preparing to welcome the new year on February 16. While 2018 is the Year of the Dog on the traditional Chinese calendar, on the nontraditional Mauldin calendar we call it the Year of the Octopus. I don’t know exactly what’s coming, but I’m pretty sure it has more than four limbs. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
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