These facts really hit home to show how important China is to the global consumption of raw materials. If China is unable to navigate its tricky transition to a consumer-driven economy and has a “hard landing”, it will be unlikely to see any growth in commodity prices triggered from the demand side. That said, supply is equally as important and it tells a different story: with companies like Glencore cutting copper production by 400,000 tons to better service its massive debt, the floor for commodities could be in. Full Story
In summary, we are of the opinion that the bull market on Wall Street is now in the rear view mirror and we are in the early stages of a primary downtrend (bear market). Currently, the stock market is enjoying a relief rally from an oversold position but the advance is not likely to be durable. Full Story
In conclusion, the critical message here is now is NOT the time to take a do nothing approach. One must be proactive in formulating intelligent strategies now for increasing volatility and financial turmoil that is on the way. Being paralyzed by fear or burying one’s head in the sand because of the extreme volatility in asset prices or clutching to hope that markets will turn higher again are neither strategies or part of an intelligent and well-informed decision-making process. Full Story
US-Iranian Deal will pass China has replaced Greece in terms financial market unsettling news maker Gold prices continue waffling Janet Yellen gets another chance at raising interest rates at the September 17th FOMC meeting, but will likely not do so Even China’s mess isn’t supporting gold prices Full Story
At the end of the day, the Fed has failed to implement any meaningful reform. The very issues that caused the 2008 Crisis (excessive debt, particularly in the opaque derivatives markets) are at even worse levels than they were in 2008. Full Story
The x-axis is your ability, competence, IQ, whatever. The y-axis is how much you get paid.
So the government path is indicated by the dashed line. If you’re very smart, you can get paid a little more, but generally everyone gets paid the same no matter how competent or incompetent they are. That’s the government. Full Story
By: Tekoa Da Silva and Eric Sprott - 10 September, 2015
Ten years ago they were bankrupt but they were waiting, waiting and waiting. Finally one day they couldn’t write the check and they declared bankruptcy to our great surprise, right? I think that’s the biggest thing. Where is this world going with all that debt? And the un-serviceability of the debt and the other obligations at hand is by far the biggest concern. It’s hard for investors to take that long view but we all know where it’s going someday, so be prepared. Full Story
Gold is hardly used in industries, more so hoarded by investors and central banks and has a high stock to flow ratio. GFMS estimates there is 180,000 tonnes of above ground gold of which India is set to import 980 tonnes (1 % of above ground stock). Silver has many industrial applications, is used up and is not anymore hoarded by central banks. Resulting in relative low above ground stocks which are partially being imported by India – not likely to be exported any time soon. Potentially creating scarcity at current prices. In a forthcoming post we will zoom in on the supply and demand metrics of the Indian silver market. Full Story
But international currency revaluations usually are announced on Sunday nights, before markets open for the new week. And if, in thrall to the U.S. government, Western central banks are willing to risk their last ounces of monetary metal to prevent free markets from returning, the day of deliverance could still be far off and thus it still could use hastening by clamor from gold and silver mining companies, commodity-producing countries, and investors generally. Full Story
We have a very important inflection point coming next week with the Fed meeting. I believe the inflection point has already been reached a few weeks back but next week may be the final straw. Will the Fed raise rates to "save face" and try to stem the loss of credibility? Or will they remain "patient" (cornered) and realize they cannot raise rates without razing the entire building? Full Story
For years, I have been noting that my ideal target in the GLD was the 98 region. That is in line with a level which is just over the $1,000 level in gold. I also noted years ago we could see an overreaction to the downside which could take gold as low as $700. But, as the boat has been filling with many bears, I am questioning the likelihood of being able to break the $1,000 level. Yet, we will not know until we see how the next downside structure takes shape. Full Story
I already shared with you that famed hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller made a $323-million bet on gold, now the largest position in his family office fund. It’s also come to light that George Soros recently moved $2 million into coal producers Peabody Energy and Arch Coal. Meanwhile, activist investor Carl Icahn took an 8.5-percent position in copper miner Freeport-McMoRan, which we own. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 9 September, 2015
Donald Trump has successfully placed immigration at the center of the U.S. Presidential election. But while the issue is still largely a debating point in the United States, it has quickly and violently become a life and death issue for the European Union, which is in the midst of the most significant immigration and refugee crisis since the Second World War. Full Story
Eurasian integration, and the US attempt to block it, will be the most important story for the next 10 years. There could be huge profits for investors who position themselves correctly ahead of this monumental trend. Full Story
Whether US equities are in a bear market or not is debatable. Regardless, I think there’s now a 60% chance that Janet Yellen will hike rates on September 17. If global stock markets stabilize and rally over the next week or so, Janet will be even more likely to take action. That’s the quarterly bars T-bond chart. T-bonds have almost quadrupled, since bottoming in 1981 in the 44 area. Full Story
The ratios to silver and gold (above) indicate that crude oil, when priced in real money such as gold and silver, are near 30 year lows. The technical indicators (green ovals) suggest that monthly crude oil prices are oversold and ready to turn up. The world is pushing toward more war. Higher crude oil prices and war go together. Central banks want inflation. They are likely to get it, and more than they want. Crude oil prices will rise as currencies devalue. Full Story
THE Crisis concerns the biggest bubble in financial history: the epic Bond bubble… which as it stands is north of $100 trillion… although if you include the derivatives that trade based on bonds it’s more like $500 TRILLION. The Fed likes to act as though it’s concerned about stocks… but the real story is in bonds. Indeed, when you look at the Fed’s actions from the perspective of the bond market, everything suddenly becomes clear. Full Story
Gold consumers in India, the world’s biggest users after China, are expected to increase purchases for festivals in the second half of the year given that the metal has become cheaper, according to the World Gold Council. Imports in August are estimated between 95 and 100 tonnes, compared to 67 tonnes the year prior. Full Story
I ask, what happens when you raise interest rates on a wobbly creditor (system) living day to day shuffling funds around just to settle? What happens when one of these well known creditors cannot and do not “settle”? I am talking of course about derivatives. You know, those wonderful contracts that allow creditors (even entire countries like Greece, Italy etc.) to hide true debt because they are “insured”. What happens when the insurance does not pay or the insurer goes broke? Full Story
How does silver perform during deflation? Which is better during a deflation – silver or gold? The answers will depend on quite a few things as well as what definition of deflation one uses. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 8 September, 2015
Of course these aren't terribly original or insightful ideas. No country that uses another country's currency for its international commerce is fully sovereign, and only gold is a neutral international reserve currency. It is precisely to rope the world into the U.S. imperial system that the International Monetary Fund prohibits its members from formally linking their currencies to gold, though commodity-producing countries like Russia, South Africa, Mexico, and those in the rest of the developing world are particularly oppressed by such rules. The question long has been whether any of them will ever have the nerve to do something about it. Glazyev's report may be an invitation. Full Story
Each year in June, the Bank of England publishes its annual report which quotes financial data up to the end of February (its financial year-end). The Bank’s annual report also states the amount of gold, valued at a market price in Pounds sterling, that it holds under custody for its customers, which comprise central banks, international financial institutions, and LBMA member banks. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I’m going to take an indepth look at some the individual precious metals stocks so we can see where they’re at from a short to long term perspective. We’ll start by looking at some of the more important big cap PM stocks as the precious metals stock indexes can’t have a significant rally until this group is ready to run. Anything can happen in the very short term but the further you go out in time the less likely the big trend is going to change on a dime. Full Story
When a government chooses to fight against devaluation, the timing of the trade is made more difficult—however the first baby-devaluation shows that the direction is no longer towards a stronger CNY. History has repeatedly shown that once a currency changes direction, it usually goes much further than just a few percent. With China going through nearly 3% of its foreign reserves in August alone, clearly we’re entering a crescendo where the reserves will shrink faster and faster as locals realize that a larger devaluation is coming. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 8 September, 2015
So where does liquid capital go for storage? Seeing this set of conditions develop, I posted here during the spring that the bottom in gold would be seen before Labor Day. I have since had second thoughts, in part because of the technical analysis we have seen in Rick’s Picks; and in part because I know that negotiations in D.C. offer the prospect of settlement of the shutdown issues. However, at present I am a little more negative than I was several weeks ago, and I see the current spending situation as a small part of the long-term federal fiscal crisis. Full Story
James Turk of GoldMoney.com returns to the program with less than sanguine comments on the equities markets. A 2008 credit crisis redux appears imminent, due to reckless debt levels, domestically and around the globe. Our guest says the Fed may raise rates by a token percentage this month and in December, and if so, the blowback will be monumental in scale, perhaps even toppling the entire economic edifice. Peter Grandich rejoins the show with thoughts on geoeconomic events. The PBoC shifted policy recently, selling $315 billion in US Treasuries from their $3.65 trillion reserve in support of the ailing Yuan currency and equities. Clearly one of the wisest of the global central banks has lost faith in the Fed, ahead of the first US benchmark rate hike since 2006, nearly 10 years. Full Story
Again, just reverse engineer the math using the 8/28 PM fix price of $1135 and you get an addition of 514,900 troy ounces or 16.15 metric tonnes. This brings their total reported "official" holdings up to about 1,693 metric tonnes of gold. So, while the much bigger news today is that China did, in fact, disgorge $94B in U.S. treasury securities last month, we can also state definitively that China continues to officially accumulate gold at a pace of around 200-220 metric tonnes per year. Full Story
The gold price didn’t do a thing in Far East or early London trading on their respective Fridays, but began to develop a bit of a negative bias once the London a.m. gold fix was in. It was sold down until the 8:20 a.m. COMEX open, rallied a bit from there—and then blasted higher on the job numbers. JPMorgan et al were there ten minutes later—and by 9:20 or so had the price down to its low tick of they day. The gold price chopped slowly higher from there into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading. Full Story
This was a fairly quiet week in the market for the metals, with a min-rally on Thursday especially in silver which hit almost $15. By the end of the week, the price of gold was down $13 and the price of silver was up 3 cents. The action was elsewhere (e.g. equities and currencies). We don’t think that the price action necessarily tells us anything by itself. That’s why we look at it in the light of the basis action—the spread between spot and futures. What happened to the fundamentals of the metals this week? Read on… Full Story
Could it be that this 6,601 tonne figure included refinery throughput for the huge number of London Good Delivery gold bars extracted from gold ETFs and LBMA and Bank of England vaults and converted into smaller gold bars in 2013, mainly using LBMA Good Delivery Swiss gold refineries? And that maybe this 6,601 tonne figure stood out as a statistical outlier for 2013 which no one wanted to talk about? Full Story
The stockmarket is toxic! It’s very important that you don’t get seduced by the old siren song of Wall St about “buying the dip” and other nonsense like “being selective”. While these strategies have worked up to now, they won’t any longer, because we are now in a bearmarket, and furthermore it looks like we are on the verge of another plunge. Full Story
The average person regardless of their education or lack off usually is on the receiving end of the stick when it comes to investing in the markets. The reason for this quandary is really very simple and predicated upon the fact that the average person’s decision-making process is driven by their emotional state. Successful investing and emotions do not go together; it’s an awful mix, and the outcome is always the same; stress and loss. Full Story
Rick Santelli may be one of the last speakers of truth left in the mainstream financial space. Santelli is a former commodities trade – now a popular CNBC commentator, broadcasting from Chicago. He is treated like a sad clown brought out for entertainment effect, where you brace for the extreme. In his case, this often manifests as an angry rant. In a recent broadcast, Santelli presented what is now affectionately known as “The “Santelligram”. It’s Venn diagram illustrating the multigenerational evolution and relationship between money, finance, and politics - reaching back from now to the end to the 19th century. Full Story
A couple of weeks ago I was complaining about 47,000 China reports clogging my e-mail. The number now feels like it is well into six figures (perhaps a slight exaggeration). Maybe my memory is going, but there wasn’t nearly as much China talk on the way up. Funny how that works. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 7 September, 2015
The Central Bank policy of dumping precious metals onto the market to rig prices has come to an end. Soon, Central Banks will no longer have the ability to control the paper price of gold and silver as true market fundamentals will finally kick in. Unfortunately, when the decades long market rigging of the precious metals finally ends, most investors will not be prepared. Full Story
We saw volatility return this week as we moved into the long weekend so myself and subscribers booked our gains early in the week and took a couple small losses as well but I’m back to all cash once again. Full Story
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