It seems extraordinary that in defiance of all factual history and philosophical knowledge anyone should celebrate the bicentenary of the birth of Karl Marx. More than anyone, through wrong-headed ideas, he bears responsibility, indirectly admittedly, for the deaths of an estimated one hundred million people in the last century, and the severe suppression though economic and social servitude of fully one third of the world’s population. Full Story
The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets are just wrapping up a truly-extraordinary earnings season. Naturally this first quarter under Republicans’ new corporate tax cuts fueled surging profits. But sales were up big too, which is no mean feat for massive companies. With sustained growth at this torrid pace impossible, peak-earnings fears are mounting. And valuations stayed extremely expensive exiting Q1. Full Story
Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst at ITM Trading makes her show debut with in depth analysis on impending global-hyperinflation. Thousands of years of monetary history reveals, only gold money is inflation resistant, unlike fiat currency that inevitably inflates away into oblivion. According to the official tally of the Federal Reserve, only 4 pennies remain for each one dollar printed over the last century. Full Story
Most Americans don’t know, but the housing market is heading toward another epic bubble. However, the bubble forming today is much different than the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Back in 2007, there was an oversupply of homes, whereas today there is a shortage. With more buyers than sellers bidding up prices, the U.S. median home price value hit a new record high of $338,000 at the end of 2017. Full Story
A sideways correction lasting a year and a half certainly does a lot to sour investors on a market. And, even though we have not dropped below 20 in GDX this entire time and the GLD has been consolidating just under its breakout region for months, the bearishness and frustration in the complex is palpable. In fact, I have even seen people calling for sub $1000 gold again, and we have not even broken a single support level yet. For me, this is a head scratcher. Full Story
Over the last few months, I have released a couple articles suggesting a potential bottom was in for the crypto market. Unfortunately, support levels that I called out did not hold, so I had to look lower. I am writing anew having seen a very bullish pattern off the recent lows struck on April 1. Currently, most of the coins we track have the "impulsive five," a pattern we look for to indicate a bottom. These patterns so far are more bullish in structure than previous patterns seen since January. Furthermore, these structures, as measured in Fibonacci levels, are higher than before. This is promising. Full Story
This first chart is a daily line chart for GLD which shows it has completed 5 reversal points so far and is working on the all important 6th reversal point back up to the top rail. This is where the bulls need to step up to the plate. Full Story
In the early 1970s the Middle East was a hotly contested part of the world, with Russia (then called the Soviet Union) and the US (backed by Europe) maneuvering for control of the region’s oil. Israel was a source of outrage for its neighbors, with war always a real possibility. The Sunni/Shia rift was in danger of tearing the Islamic world apart. AND government spending was soaring in the West, leading to highly experimental (read desperate) monetary policy at the Fed. Full Story
Tim Draper, Silicon Valley V.C. legend, author of How to be The Startup Hero, founder of Draper University and Bitcoin expert makes his show debut. In only 5 years, Draper University has set a new standard in education, with several success stories including one graduate who created a billion dollar crypto-token company. Our guest had the foresight to purchase 30,000 Bitcoins in 2014 from the U.S. Marshals Service auction at around $500 each. Full Story
Take a look at this Daily SPY chart. It clearly shows the sloping resistance and support channels that are containing price over the past few months. Additionally, above the current price, you can see horizontal PEAK resistance levels that should be considered upside targets and DUAL resistance levels (Red and Yellow) that are currently holding price from rallying upward. If you take a look at the lower indicators (ADL Squeeze and the MACD), you will see that price is very narrowly congested while recent support is evident with "higher low points" in price. Full Story
Is gold headed below $1000? I doubt it. Like every other bullion investor who has tired of watching gold’s price meander sideways for nearly six years, I’ve grown increasingly disappointed and frustrated. But also concerned, as many apparently are, that one last, hellish plunge may be necessary to shake out the weak hands. However, looking at the long-term chart, I’m persuaded that bulls still have the edge, if not a big one. Full Story
A while back, a writer (whose name and story details I unfortunately don’t remember) was researching the credit card business and tried to figure out how card issuers decide which customers to pursue. To this end he created a series of fake personas ranging from an affluent straight-arrow who always pays her bills on time to a white-trashy guy with impulse control issues and a history of multiple defaults and late payments. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
Gold was up half a percent year-to-date through last Friday. This doesn’t sound very exciting, but over the same period, the SPX 500 Index was in the red—the first time in nearly a decade that stocks have been negative for the year through the beginning of May. The yellow metal is doing the one thing for which many investors have it in their portfolio—namely, it’s trading inversely to the market. This highlights its longstanding role as an attractive diversifier and store of value. Full Story
From these statements it is possible to deduce that during March the BIS reduced by about 165 tonnes its use of gold swaps and other gold-related derivatives, but subsequently in April the bank's use of gold swaps and other gold-related derivatives increased by about 60 tonnes. It seems that the BIS is continuing to trade actively in gold derivatives and the amounts disclosed each month have been following an irregular pattern. Full Story
The Dollar Index has rallied for three weeks without a significant correction, raising the odds that April’s 89.23 low could turn out to be a very important one. Notice as well that the dollar’s romp has exceeded numerous prior peaks, including no fewer than one ‘internal’ and two ‘externals’ labeled in the chart. From a ‘Hidden Pivot’ perspective, this defines the rally as a powerful ‘impulse leg’ — i.e., one with the presumptive moxie to generate another once the inevitable correction has run its course. Full Story
The past four weeks have seen a relentless rally in the U.S. dollar as the Dollar Index has soared by nearly 4%. This has led the computers that trade COMEX gold and silver to dump their positions, causing lower prices for both. If the dollar can soon reverse from this greatly overbought position (RSI nearing 80!), the selling pressure on the COMEX digital metals will decrease. Full Story
How do you know when to underweight or overweight gold or silver? Mike Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors, explains how he looks at the gold and silver price ratio to determine the opportune time to adjust weightings. Mike also explains silver’s seasonal trading pattern and that historically returns are higher in the months of June, July and August. Full Story
By: Chris Vermeulen and Maurice Jackson - 8 May, 2018
We're delighted to hear your perspective because we look at things more from a fundamental standpoint, so it's good to hear what your thesis will be here. Chris, speculators and investors in this space usually are gold-centric, to a varying silver-centric, and they overlook the platinum group metals. For someone new to technical analysis, share with us what is the COT, and how does that influence your thesis? Full Story
Normally, I don’t step out and make such bold statements as gold mining supply IS collapsing, however, in this case it seems appropriate. We have reported on several occasions just in the past week, here, here and here how some of the largest mining companies in the world are seeing massive reductions in gold production. While funding continues to flow into mining companies new discoveries, with few exceptions, are smaller and have much shorter production lifespans. Full Story
This is the beginning of what I call the China and India oriented “gold bull era”. It’s an era that is rekindling respect amongst global money managers for gold as the ultimate asset and portfolio returns enhancement tool. I’m adamant that the correct minimum amount of gold that should be held in a stock and bond portfolio to maximize returns is 20%. The ideal portfolio may be 30% bonds, 30% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% blockchain. Full Story
Exponential increases in debt, spending, and social programs have a limited lifetime in our finite world. If something cannot continue, it will stop. An ugly reset is inevitable. Silver prices rise as the dollar is devalued. When priced in silver ounces, most commodity prices are stable. When priced in silver, debt and paper assets have risen since 1913 when bankers paid congress to approve the Federal Reserve. Silver has been money and a common currency for thousands of years. Treasury notes and digital dollars have been important for a few decades. The distinction is important. Full Story
Ask some gold bugs why Gold has not broken out yet and you will probably get the usual answers. Some will say it's due to manipulation or price suppression. Others will mention the current rally in the US Dollar (while neglecting that the previous decline in the greenback was unable to take Gold to a new high). Few would say the fundamentals are not in place. No one can know for certain but Gold’s fundamentals have not improved over the past year and are not where they need to be to support a breakout. Full Story
About a year ago, Argentina – which has inflated away and/or defaulted on its currency every few decades for the past century – issued 100-year government bonds. And the issue was oversubscribed, with yield-crazed developed-world institutions throwing money at the prospect of a lifetime of 7% coupon payments. Full Story
As the markets and financial system continue to be propped up by an ever-increasing amount of debt and leverage, precious metals investors need to understand the two most important reasons to invest in gold and silver. While one of the reasons to own precious metals is understood by many in the alternative media community, the more important critical factor is not. Full Story
On a final note, May is here, and that means we could see yet another excellent gold buying opportunity. In the chart below, you can see the yellow metal’s average monthly returns for the 30-year period and 10-year period. Although there are noticeable differences, in both cases, May was a great entry point ahead of the late summer rally in anticipation of Diwali and the Indian wedding season, when gifts of gold jewelry are considered auspicious. Full Story
Wolf Richter, founder of WolfStreet.com returns to the show with cautionary comments on the US financial sector. Unlike many Wall Street bears, Wolf Richter does not expect the markets to implode, but instead, following a decade of record growth, stocks / bonds could under perform expectations. Peter Kendall, coeditor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast makes his show debut. Current Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the US shares indexes are registering ominous signals. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was silver, up 0.14 percent. Gold traders were back to bullish this week after gold bounced off its 200-day moving average after dropping to its lowest since December on Tuesday, according to the Bloomberg weekly survey of traders. The yellow metal fluctuated on Friday morning after the jobs report came out with mixed signals on low unemployment but fewer-than-expected jobs added. Full Story
For the past two centuries or so the world has been dominated by two empires— the British empire and the American empire. Some refer to it as the Anglo-American empire because the two have had significant historical, ethnic, linguistic, and cultural ties. Throughout it all their currencies, the pound sterling and the U.S. dollar have been the dominant currencies acting as the world’s reserve currency. It is no surprise the dominant superpower is also the dominant currency. It has been that way since ancient times. But increasingly, in a multipolar world, their dominance is coming under question and pressure. Full Story
For the past year and half a major topic throughout the alternative press has been the new Chinese oil futures contract settled/priced in yuan. The fact that China is directly challenging the Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar, is quiet a significant change. For those that have been paying attention this new futures oil contract is nothing more than the next step in China moving completely away from the Federal Reserve Note, and the “world reserve currency” system and towards a multi-polar world with several currencies being used for international trade. Full Story
The US economic expansion that began in mid-2009 has been much weaker than average, but, as indicated by the chart displayed below, it is also much longer than average. In fact, it is simultaneously the weakest and the second-longest expansion on record. Due to the advanced age of the expansion and the signs of weakness that have appeared over the past three months in economic statistics and the stock market, recession warnings are becoming more common. However, when we take an impartial look at the most reliable leading indicators of recession we arrive at the conclusion that these warnings are premature. Full Story
The hot topic in monetary economics today (hah, if it’s not an oxymoron to say these terms together!) is whither interest rates. The Fed in its recent statement said the risk is balanced (the debunked notion of a tradeoff between unemployment and rising consumer prices should have been tossed on the ash heap of history in the 1970’s). The gold community certainly expects rapidly rising prices, and hence gold to go up, of course. Full Story
Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run. Full Story
The past few months have seen some unusual, maybe even unique, developments in the gold and silver futures markets, with gold becoming extremely bearish and silver almost ridiculously bullish. Neither imbalance has amounted to much in terms of price action, so it’s not clear whether the most recent changes matter. Still, the action in both gold and silver futures remains unusual enough to bear watching. Full Story
The switch from Central bank gold sales to purchases had a big impact on the gold market. Precious metals investors fail to realize that Central banks sold a staggering amount of gold into the market up until 2009. It’s also quite interesting that Central banks became net purchasers after the 2008 Market meltdown. Full Story
Like the disintegration of the formerly charmed stock market, the return of Carmageddon is right on schedule. I had stated early last year that one of the first cracks in our economy to become evident would be the crash of the car industry. That crack materialized as promised, but then Hurricanes Harvey and Irma showed up to flood a million automobiles. Full Story
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