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Weekly Archive

By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 11 May, 2007

-When lumps want a New Deal…getting the shaft in the gold mine of American capitalism…
-As productivity rises, boss men get the dough…growing disparity in executive and working man's wages…
-Risk management - the best way to deal with a froth market…watch boutiques abound in Asia…and more! Full Story

By: Howard S. Katz - 11 May, 2007

The decline of May 8-10 was a false move, a trap. Gold is set to go sharply higher, and this decline is a wonderful buying opportunity. This is the conclusion which follows from my theory of the fake-out move. Full Story

By: David Galland, Casey Research - 11 May, 2007

Today, there are over six trillion U.S. dollars in foreign hands, and worse, those dollars now serve as the world’s de-facto reserve currency, littering the vaults of central bankers from Australia to Zanzibar and all the letters in between. That is an unprecedented occurrence in the history of humankind. A further loss of faith in the U.S. government, an inevitable reaction to an expanding war, and sure knowledge of the extraordinary direct and indirect costs of that war would only accelerate and exacerbate the monetary crisis now looming on the horizon. Full Story

By: Deepcaster - 11 May, 2007

Increasing United States’ Budget Deficits and National Debt, massive Trade Imbalances, a seemingly never-ending War, and a whole host of other reasons including real inflation at 9-10% a year, would indicate that the U.S. equities markets and U.S. dollar should not be as buoyant as they are. Indeed, those and other factors argue for a lower dollar and lower equities markets. Full Story

By: Adrian Ash - 11 May, 2007

WHAT TO MAKE of gold's 2.6% drop after failing to hold $690 for the third time in two months? "The market sees a falling gold price as a gift horse," reckons Jon Bergtheil, head of metals at J.P.Morgan in London. "The fundamentals are still very positive." How positive exactly? Other than the price, nothing has changed since Monday. The gold market is still getting squeezed between tightening supply and rising long-term demand. Full Story

By: Neal R. Ryan - 11 May, 2007

The PPI index was announced this morning for April at .7% increase showing a reduction from March figures, but the index still came in above analyst expectations of .6%, due nearly entirely to energy input costs. With gasoline prices having continued to trend higher, there should be little expectation that future PPI numbers will moderate in the coming months. Full Story

By: Jim Willie CB - 11 May, 2007

Russia and China have become a major problem. Everywhere one turns, there is Russia & China at odds with the United States. We have the Great Bear in a conflict over energy, Iran, military installations, and central bank policy. We have the Great Dragon in a conflict over currency reform, banking reform, copyright enforcement, trade matters, human rights, and central bank policy. Armed with a combined account of almost $1600 billion, these two giants are in a Battle of Titans with the United States for geopolitical control. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 11 May, 2007

For those of you who still awaken each morning with somehow undiminished enthusiasm for “buying the dips” in gold, I’ve included my rock-bottom price forecast in Friday’s Touts. Yesterday, I did some abortive bottom-fishing myself in the June Comex, nibbling at Hidden Pivots that lay, respectively, at 672.10 and 667.80. By day’s end, however, I’d lost my enthusiasm altogether, if not to say my trading mojo, even though the best opportunity of the week may lie just ahead, a hair beneath Thursday’s lows. Full Story

By: Steve Sarnoff & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 10 May, 2007

-Which 'inflation' is the problem?…Chinese stocks for widows and orphans…'up' is the new 'down'…
-Westerners born the day before yesterday…modern money like a rock and roll groupie…
-Wasting away in Berskire Hathaway-a-ville…old magazines from the dotcom boom…reading War and Peace - twice…and more! Full Story

By: Adrian Ash - 10 May, 2007

SERIOUS ECONOMISTS never much liked the Euro. Then again, serious economists never much bothered to make money from trading. John Maynard Keynes just goes to prove it. World-famous scourge of both gold and "the long run", Keynes averaged nearly 13% per year trading the funds of Kings College, Cambridge, during the Depression. London's stock market, meantime, ticked lower by half-a-per cent per annum. Full Story

By: Neal R. Ryan - 10 May, 2007

It's our belief that the market supply gap is being bridged at present by an increase in Central bank sales and possibly increased loans and swaps which is no surprise to anyone who regularly reads our notes! But while this influx of central bank gold is hitting the market to satiate demand and hold prices down, every other market indicator is turning particularly bullish. Full Story

By: Larry Edelson - 10 May, 2007

I have absolutely no doubt that someday, and soon, you're going to hear that China has been actively buying gold as part of its strategy to diversify its $1.2 trillion in cash reserves. When you hear that news, every broker and analyst under the sun is going to tell you to buy gold and gold mining shares like crazy. But don't listen to them because it will be too late. By the time the Chinese admit they have been buying gold, I can assure you, we will be much closer to the top of the gold market than the bottom. Full Story

By: Michael Nystrom - 10 May, 2007

America's recovery from its Fourth Turning crisis, which I discussed last week, will rely heavily on the energy and ideas of a rising younger generation. Because of this, it was with particular fascination that I read the details of Don Imus's 30-year career and his sudden and spectacular fall from public favor last month. Full Story

By: Dudley Pierce Baker - 10 May, 2007

In a perfect world all investors would make correct decisions and all leverage would be good leverage. Yea right, none of us are perfect and frequently our investments and the timing thereof maybe off the mark. Therefore, it is necessary for us to evaluate the different choices of leverage to be used (if any) in our investments. Full Story

By: Gary Tanashian - 10 May, 2007

Consequently, caution should be alive and well too. But is it? Chinese are pouring funny munny into their stock market to the tune of a 50+ PE ratio. Hedge funds and possibly YOUR pension/retirement fund are on auto pilot as a global balloon continues to inflate on the back of continually expanding munny. We watch the Yen. We watch the GSR. We watch the yield curve. We trade, manage risk and await the fireworks to come, sooner or later. Full Story

By: Clif Droke - 10 May, 2007

So here we are four years into the bull market and hardly a soul on Main Street has bought into it. Everywhere we see fear, worry, pessimism and a latent feeling that everything is going to unwind at any minute. How did we go from a nation of super-optimists 10 years ago to a nation of fear-laden bears today? Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 10 May, 2007

"If you think that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities will save your sorry financial butt or stop me from screaming 'Gaaaaah!' in terror, then I scornfully laugh the Scornful Laugh Of The Mogambo (SLOTM) with a loud 'Hahahaha!'" Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 10 May, 2007

US debt is at least $70 trillion, which is about six times GDP. That far exceeds debt levels seen in the Great Depression. This debt is the result of central bank policies that has triggered a deluge of money and credit over the past four years. This has made Americans dependent on foreigners to finance its standard of living, and has caused a credit bubble far bigger than the dotcom boom. As a result, it won’t be long before there is another large correction in the value of the dollar. That will be followed by an end of the dollar as a reserve currency. Were it not that the US has had the luxury of being a reserve currency, it would have collapsed long ago. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 May, 2007

We’ve seen one Hidden Pivot rally target after the next demolished in recent months, even if some of them withstood the battering for a while. Now, for the record, we proffer yesterday’s 1519.00 high in the Mini-S&P as yet one more such enticing opportunity to get short. This we did, late in the day and with no great expectation of getting rich -- only of picking an entry spot that might afford us the luxury of bucking the tide with relatively little risk during the parabolic blowoff stage of a 25-year-old bull market. Full Story

By: James Howard Kunstler & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 9 May, 2007

-Mr. Moolah doesn't listen…not very subtle Chinese warning…a winning streak not matched since '29…
-Reiterating margin risks…another form of IOU…a dirty trick by the authorities…
-Sarko just can't win…it's only exhilarating if you don't get killed…staying away from trash…and more! Full Story

By: Neal R. Ryan - 9 May, 2007

All expectations are that the Fed will continue to remain on hold, but any slight tweak in language from the previous statements will move markets violently in one direction or the other. This is the curse of maintaining a data dependent outlook on the market in the Bernanke Fed versus an authoritative approach that had been the hallmark of the Greenspan Fed. When the market is forced to be reactive rather than proactive, the volatility will be just that much greater. Full Story

By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 9 May, 2007

Why do we write and read all these short essays? Our goal is to take a picture snapshot of our world and some how bring all these images briefly together. If we can succeed in capturing a quick portrait of the world’s activities we can discern long term trends and make assertions about what lies around the corner and over the horizon. And this is how real money is made when you can study the future and determine long term world trends. Full Story

By: Ned W. Schmidt, CFA,CEBS - 9 May, 2007

Complacency over the demise of the U.S. dollar has allowed continued expansion of the yen and Swiss carry trade loans. Likewise, the imminent U.S. recession is being glossed over. This week the FOMC will confirm the ineptness of U.S. monetary policy by doing and saying either something or nothing, which may or may not be interpreted positively by some. With this background, speculative funds have pushed paper equities higher. In doing so multiple buying opportunities have been created in the Gold and Silver markets. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 9 May, 2007

Finding ways to buy gold without risking much is proving to be more art than science, as yesterday’s experience demonstrated. In the Touts section of Tuesday’s newsletter, I’d put out a recommendation to buy the June Comex contract at 680.50 if it took a “nasty swoon.” But this is not what happened. Instead of swooning, the futures chopped and spasmed their way lower, acting not so much like a schoolgirl with the vapors as an acrobatic kite on a gusty day. Full Story

By: Gary Dorsch – Editor, Global Money Trends Magazine - 8 May, 2007

In a speech to business people on the risks facing the global economy, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on March 20th, that geopolitics was at the top of his list. “There is a near complete disconnect between geopolitical risk and risk that is priced and perceived in financial markets. It’s like something out of Dickens, you talk to international relations experts and it’s the worst of all times. Then you talk to potential investors and it’s one of the best of all times.” Full Story

By: Douglas V. Gnazzo - 8 May, 2007

The Republican primary debate for President was held on May 3, 2007. MSNBC consented to be the host of the event. No greater undertaking can be had than the pursuit of liberty and justice engendered by the election of the President of the United States of America. Full Story

By: Puru Saxena & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 8 May, 2007

-No use for tiring holidays…gratuitous insults and ridicule…hoi polloi pulled down by asset inflation…
-Helping cobblers get rich…money more welcome than a fat Christian in a lion's den…
-Treating liberty like a gum wrapper…awaiting the reaction of a 'law and order guy'…and more! Full Story

By: Charleston Voice - 8 May, 2007

A real bummer for sure have been these last few months. Up, Down, Up and back down. I don't know about you, but I've been pretty much fully invested in gold and mostly silver stocks the whole period. This has surely been a whipsaw trading market. Full Story

By: Adrian Ash - 8 May, 2007

GOT TIME for a quick round of Blankety Blank, the classic British gameshow from the '80s? If you were lucky enough to miss it, just think of America's Match Game – only with the value of prizes capped by government diktat. (Yes, really...) Then simply write down the word that best completes these well-worn phrases below. Full Story

By: D. Stewart Armstrong - 8 May, 2007

It would appear that it has been a stealth bull market in this precious metals sector and while some junior companies have done extremely well over the past year, many are simply treading water. This is the story line as I see it. Gold, Silver, and the commodities in general are doing well but very few people seem to be aware of the trend. Full Story

By: D. Stewart Armstrong - 8 May, 2007

We are dealing primarily with an Integrated Marketing Campaign in this article. However, for the sake of clarity, consider that advertising, promotion, IR, and PR and all of the corresponding components are part and parcel of advancing the marketing/promotional campaign. Marketing and Promotion go hand in hand and advertising is the engine that moves the entire exercise forward. Full Story

By: Puru Saxena - 8 May, 2007

BIG PICTURE – A gradual transfer of wealth and power is currently underway. Thanks to globalisation and economic reforms, the great wealth divide between the industrialized nations and the “emerging” economies is contracting. Over the coming decades, I anticipate this process to accelerate. In other words, I believe the future will bring rising consumption and a higher standard of living in today’s impoverished countries (China, India, Brazil and other “third world” countries), whereas we are likely to witness the reverse in the US and parts of Western Europe. Full Story

By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 8 May, 2007

US corporate earnings for the first quarter of the year were generally above analysts' expectations and this has been trumpeted as an important driver of the stock market's recent advance. As usual, though, there's a lot more to the story than meets the eye. Full Story

By: The Mogambo Guru & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 7 May, 2007

-No hexes in the New Era...setting up arguments like dominoes...learning from the past...
-The amazing adventures of durable everyone’s a player...
-How to talk politics and influence people...when bullish sentiment swings toward gold...and more! Full Story

By: Neal R. Ryan - 7 May, 2007

According to the Bank Credit Analyst this past Friday, we should see no action out of the Fed as they continue to keep rate changes on hold, but the key for markets will be the nuances in the language. Any slight changes that hint at when rate cuts could begin (we believe rate increases are nearly off the table as an option) will be what the general markets take as the cue. Full Story

By: Peter Grandich - 7 May, 2007

One Piece of the Puzzle Away From Slaughterhouse – It’s been my contention that the U.S. stock market would continue to rise through DJIA 13,000 and the market would need to embrace the belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve would go into an easing mode before the market could reach a major top. My plan has been to short it once it does. Well, we’ve achieved the 13,000 part but the easing mode is still no where to be found. (Friday’s employment numbers put that possibility back on the radar). Full Story

By: Larry LaBorde - 7 May, 2007

While watching a baseball game with my father-in-law during his convalescence we listened to the announcer quote all the stats of the player coming up at bat. The announcer knew everything about this player. This started me to thinking. How much time do we spend on our own financial statistics? Full Story

By: - 7 May, 2007

Greg McCoach
Justice Litle
Gary Kaltbaum
FREE: 1 gram of gold.
Precious metals rebound.
Stocks defy gravity.
Housing fallout spreads.
3 Spotlight Picks with big dividends! Full Story

By: Gary Tanashian - 6 May, 2007

Since its inception in 2004, has sought to provide balanced analysis during a time of unbridled bullishness in most global markets (two notable exceptions being the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen). Along with this bullishness comes ever increasing risk however and as any good trader knows, managing risk vs. potential reward is of utmost importance. If you have followed the site from the beginning, you have noted a distain for perma-bearishness along with a sort of resignation that a liquidity fueled global casino atmosphere has replaced any semblance of organic economic and market fundamentals. Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 6 May, 2007

The IMF believes they have the world economy all figured it out after 4 years of 4.9% growth in the years 2003 to 2006. They believe we will see another 2 years of the same. The last time this happen was in 1970 to 1973 when growth was 5.4%. 1974-75 had growth rates of 2.3%, which include a sharp recession. There has never been a six year 4.9% increase since 1970; someone should remind the IMF that growth was 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2006 and 1.7% in the first quarter. Full Story

By: Greg Silberman - 6 May, 2007

One has to ask the question, have central bankers become so good at manipulation that they can make all asset classes dance to their tune? Except for Gold bugs and contrarians, the world at large is bamboozled by the flood of never ending money. So if interest rates cannot reflect economic reality and currencies are 'managed' what if anything will ever expose the truth that economic activity is largely a paper covering issue? Full Story

By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors - 6 May, 2007

The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy is weakening (witness the very slow 1.3% GDP growth last quarter). This week we look at the seeming disconnect in the data, briefly examine where the real stock market booms are happening, and re-visit the housing markets. It's a lot for what will be a quick letter (and lots of charts), as I am trying to leave town, so let's jump right in. Full Story

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