By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 11 April, 2014
Despite the furore surrounding the Gold Fix [unfairly, we believe] it is a singularly determined attempt amongst commodities to set a twice daily price that does reflect demand and supply of gold, at those moments. To understand this we have to see what happens at the Fixing sessions. Full Story
By: Terry Coxon, Senior Economist - 11 April, 2014
During World War II, the British Royal Air Force (RAF) undertook a plan of misdirection to allow a squadron of bombers to approach an exceptionally valuable target in Europe undetected. The target was so heavily guarded that destroying it would require more than the usual degree of surprise. Full Story
The New Economy Index (NEI) is on the brink of sending its first confirmed “sell” signal in four years. The index is a blend of the leading U.S. retail and business service stocks. NEI is based on the concept that these component stocks are accurate reflections of changes within the real-time U.S. economy (as opposed to the lagging economic statistics favored by the Labor Bureau). Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 11 April, 2014
The American GDX Gold Miners ETF is slowly becoming the de-facto standard for measuring gold-stock performance. Nearing its eighth birthday, GDX has even usurped the venerable HUI gold-stock index as this sector’s metric of choice in many circles. While GDX has advantages and disadvantages compared to the traditional HUI, it is an excellent gold-stock benchmark. But it still falls far short of individual stock picking. Full Story
Today is one of those days where I intend to achieve my goal, as there are simply too many important topics to be broached. Frankly, it is awe-inspiring to watch the daily machinations of global money printing, market manipulation, and propaganda destroying the lives of countless billions. Each successive manoeuver materially adds to the cumulative misery we anticipate in the coming decade – such as today’s Bank of England decision to maintain its 0.50% interest rate for the sixth straight year, and its £375 billion QE program. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 11 April, 2014
Will future historians write that Iraq (oil), Libya (more than oil, Libya has one of the largest fresh water systems in the world contained in four major underground basins), Afghanistan and Syria, both literal gold mines of mineral wealth were the first battlegrounds in a continual war over resources? Full Story
I am often asked whether or not western governments are likely to confiscate gold, and my answer has invariably been on the lines of "unlikely at the moment, because so few people own gold". However given low stock levels in western vaults and that bail-ins are on the agenda the answer to the question should be reconsidered. Full Story
All in all, the puzzles seem to be in place and the next downswing in the precious metals sector seems to be just around the corner. As always, it's not possible to tell if this is really the top or if we are going to see another (probably small if any at all) move higher before the decline materializes, but it seems that combining the odds with the possible sizes of price swings strongly favor opening short positions at this time. Full Story
On average, every quarter we are exposed to yet another price guidance by a mainstream analyst. Such analysts usually reside within a large investment bank. These calls become focal points for a sector and often seem to carry with them some form of self fulfilling prophecy. Full Story
People consider Federal Reserve notes, U.S. dollars, to be real money. This includes their digital equivalent in bank and credit card statements and Treasury-issued base metal coins. As a unit of account, all goods and services, and land and labor are priced in U.S. dollars. Declared legal tender, Federal Reserve notes are the country’s medium of exchange. Full Story
The Fed minutes were dovish and this helped push Gold above $1310 to $1320. However, the miners, which usually lead the metals did little to confirm the rise. In fact, the miners have been relatively weak in recent days and had a bearish reversal on Thursday. Their rebound from an oversold condition has petered out. Another point is Gold, during this rebound has made no progress against foreign currencies. Full Story
This is a picture of the “Velocity of Money” (US M2). In many respects, this is not a pretty picture. I suppose nothing that has been falling for upwards of 16 years can be considered a sound investment. The velocity of money has broken lows set upwards of 50 years ago. But this is not an investment. So what is the velocity of money? Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 10 April, 2014
For decades many of us in the hard money world have speculated that cloak and dagger activity by large financial interests has played a large role in determining performance in the gold market. The focus of this alleged manipulation is believed to be in the London market, and has been widely referred to as "The London Fix." However those who have blown the whistle have been dismissed as alarmists, gold bugs, conspiracy theorists or worse. But recent revelations should bring us closer to the truth. Full Story
I’m not thrilled by the market action of the past two or three weeks but I also don’t think the basic narrative has changed. The gold price has corrected but I don’t think its rolled over unless it gets quite a bit lower. Likewise, the correction in the Venture Index is not large compared to some of its larger brethren and well within the bounds of what one would see as part of a larger bullish advance. Full Story
The toy trap: we all have friends who’ve fallen in. I received a wave of emails after publishing Debt: The Last Social Taboo?, all sharing similar sad stories. Full Story
There is a stark difference between the states of the markets for the monetary metals. The number of open futures contracts in gold is low, while in silver it’s high. First, let’s look at the data and then we’ll discuss what it means. Full Story
Recent weeks were not bad for those gold investors’ hearts filled with golden hopes. The price of gold depends on many factors, but past patterns can give us important hints and suggest which of them are to be carefully studied and properly comprehended. If history were to teach us anything about gold’s past market values it would most primarily be the following: watch out for the feds! Wise observation of government policies is the main driving force for what is happening in the gold market (surely along with supply factors in the longer run). Full Story
A global clash of nations is underway in full gear. The storm is picking up speed, power, intensity, and damaging force. Many are the swirls of the current situation. A hodgepodge of topics have been caught and trapped, best to discharge on paper, the effect like a wondrous enema. The banker lies grow thicker, as they are unable to so easily deceive anymore. The potential currency fix appears more imminent, as the solution seen as an assault on American interests (military angle). Any nation getting off the US Wagon Train is a rogue nation, the theme having become tired and ineffective. The fatal errors committed by the US economists and banker elite have finally resulted in clear signs of systemic failure. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Jay Taylor - 9 April, 2014
Jay Taylor understands why investors in gold and gold equities are consumed with caution. But the publisher and editor of J. Taylor's Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks and host of the radio show "Turning Hard Times into Good Times" urges them not to lose sight of the big picture. The big, bull-market picture. Gold juniors with cash and good projects are trading at tiny fractions of their worth. But not for long. In this interview with The Gold Report, Taylor argues that we are on the cusp of a bull market for the ages. Full Story
By: Stephen St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 April, 2014
The U.S. Treasury would consume nearly half of total mine supply if U.S coins contained silver. Prior to 1965, the U.S. Mint included silver in its coinage. The U.S. dime, quarter and half-dollar consisted of 90% silver. However, today they are nothing more than base metal slugs. Full Story
Puerto Rico promises to now do for Americans what Singapore and Hong Kong have done for bankers and businessmen from London. In this interview with The Gold Report, three experts with in-depth knowledge of the pros and cons of living and investing in Puerto Rico share what it is like on the ground for investors.InternationalMan.com Senior Editor Nick Giambruno and Casey Research Chief Technology Investor and Puerto Rico resident Alex Daley join Sterne Agee's Managing Director of Equity Research Todd Hagerman in clearing up some of the confusion about this "misunderstood" island and why the tax benefits for Americans make it "The Better Florida." Full Story
Peter Schiff shares how he is taking advantage of the enormous tax benefits of Puerto Rico by moving his business, and eventually himself, to the island. Full Story
Next month marks the 3-year anniversary of the bear market in silver that started in May 2011. Later this summer we will hit the 3-year anniversaries of the bear markets in gold and gold stocks. We are now psychologically conditioned for pain and punishment in the gold markets and to beware of the next downward plunge. Full Story
Gold futures volume on the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange surged 32 per cent in March from the same month last year to record its highest monthly volume in 12 months. The contract’s exceptional performance saw DGCX’s precious metals segment registering year-on-year growth of 38 per cent. Full Story
With economies slowing down in China, Japan, Eastern Europe and other regions of the globe, many investors wonder if 2014 will deliver another global deflationary epidemic. As I’ll explain in this commentary, the next six months has the potential to be the most exciting period for investors since the 2010 financial crisis in Europe. Full Story
We are about to see the end of our current international monetary system. Based on much of the evidence that I have written about previously, this appears to be a certainty. The systematic build-up of this current monetary order went together with the gradual phasing out of silver from the monetary order. Full Story
America is in an economic upswing, but I don’t have the same enthusiastic outlook that mainstream analysts do. They seem to generally believe that America today can grow like the relatively debt-free America of the 1950s did. In my professional opinion, government red tape is out of control. The citizens look like they are stuck in government quick sand. That’s a tough existence. Full Story
Keep this goal in mind as you read on: solid income and growth with minimal risk and no catastrophic losses. Just tuck it in the back of your head. Full Story
After two hard days down in the stock market I'm going to take a contrary position and say that this is just a normal profit taking event and that stocks are going to recover and head back up to new highs. I still think this market needs to have a final blow off bubble phase before the bull can die. The final bubble phase for stocks should usher in the final capitulation stage of gold’s 2 1/2 year bear market. For those like SMT subscribers that are sitting in cash, this final capitulation is going to represent one of the greatest buying opportunities of this generation. Full Story
Q: “Gold has been going down since August of 2011. It is clearly in a bear market, so why tell me it will go up?” A: Yes, gold has fallen about 40% from its high but why assume that means it will continue falling? It looks to me like a 40% correction in a long term bull market. Full Story
The gold bull is just taking a giant breather during a very long bull market, which is the good news. To prove this correction is now a ‘bear’ market, gold would have to trade under the 2008 low and I strongly suggest this is unlikely. With the first gold leg running up for 12 years straight a proportional correction was inevitable but the main event is yet to come. Full Story
The 3rd annual Dubai Precious Metals Conference came to a gloomy conclusion yesterday with participants voting for very little or no advance in the gold price this year after a lengthy panel debate between four experts, three of whom saw gold prices falling further before any possibility of an increase. Full Story
The Miners Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Chart Pattern. This pattern, discovered by a stock market analyst, George Lindsay, can be found in multiple timeframes. On the following charts you can see the model of the Lindsay’s Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern, as well as the current chart of the Miners Index (HUI). You can notice that the HUI Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern during these last ten years. Full Story
Despite the recent big gains in gold stocks, company insiders and institutional investors are still 2.5 times more likely to be buyers than sellers. In this interview with The Gold Report, Ted Dixon, co-founder and CEO of INK Research, explains that those in the know are still quite bullish, despite the pullback in March. Full Story
Recently I visited the breathtaking city of Hong Kong to speak at the seventh-annual Mines and Money conference, Asia-Pacific’s premier event for mining investment deal-making and capital-raising. During my time in Asia I had the additional privilege of addressing the audience of the Asia Mining Club, alongside my good friend Robert Friedland, Executive Chairman and Founder of Ivanhoe Mines. Full Story
It’s deja vu all over again and it was kick-started a couple of trading days before PDAC. That’s when a Vancouver-based shell that was once a junior “miner” but never mined anything except the stock market announced a change of business. This sort of thing happens all the time in a bear market. What was unusual in this particular instance was the nature of the business change: The company announced it was morphing into a medical marijuana merchant bank. Full Story
By: Alex Daley, Chief Technology Investment Strategist - 7 April, 2014
Much fuss was made yesterday when my colleague Nick Giambruno released a report outlining the incredible tax benefits to be had, by Americans no less (the only people in the world to be taxed back home even when we leave), in Puerto Rico. Full Story
The big story developing in the US markets regards the sudden crackdown by regulators, most notably the SEC and Justice Department, on High Frequency Trading or HFT. For well over five years now, certain trading firms have been using high-speed computers to front-run orders from other investors. In simple terms, the market exchanges, like the NYSE, would let these firms (for a price of course) see when someone put in a market order to buy or sell shares on the market. Full Story
Last week, the big story was how bankers use HFT (High Frequency Trading) algorithmic software not only to rig markets but also to commit theft on a daily basis (Frontrunning, like Quantitative Easing, is just fancy Wall Street lingo to disguise its true meaning of theft). Though many in the public blogosphere expressed shock that stock markets are rigged and that regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission willingly allow this theft to occur, the only thing shocking about this story was how long it took this story to reach the mainstream and that people were crediting Michael Lewis with uncovering this story with his book “Flash Boys” when in reality this story had been discussed in detail on independent financial media sites for more than five years already. Full Story
We’re going to do something a little different for the Weekend Report this week. I would like to give the spotlight to Sir Plunger for his most excellent work on the Phase 3 for the PM stocks bear market. It deserves to be read by the members of Rambus Chartology and the general public at large. I just want to thank you Sir Plunger for all the time, research, and energy it takes to put together something like your Phase 3 bear market outlook for the precious metals stocks. Full Story
Think you could make it in business with a trillion dollar subsidy? That’s a very conservative estimate of what banks can borrow each year at almost no cost, courtesy of Fed easing. Returning the favor, the banks plow the funny money into Treasury paper, stocks and bonds, then lend what crumbs remain to the riff-raff at usurious interest rates that sometimes exceed 20% — a tad more than Frankie the Camel charges customers. What a great way to make money! Full Story
Wall Street Wizard, Peter Grandich says QE stimulus arguably saved the banking system from collapse, but it may not provide the long-term economic growth expected by Fed officials. Nevertheless, the Fed was forced to shoulder the stimulus burden typically shared by Congress via fiscal policy. The result may be a lost generation, with living standards significantly lower than those enjoyed by our parents, culminating with an even deeper financial crisis. After the current consolidation passes, Peter expects gold to ascend to $1,400 later this spring. Food shortages and rationing are occurring in Venezuela, which could erupt in every country, even the US - the host suggests stockpiling discounted, large-sized canned goods with a 25 year shelf-life: $31 Starter Kit, (we have one in our household). Full Story
Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is colloquially defined as insanity, per a quote attributed to Albert Einstein. Call me insane, but I wince whenever I hear this. As a rule of thumb it’s fine but it can be slippery. I’m reminded of another quote from the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who is alleged to have said, “A man cannot step into the same river twice, for it is not the same river and he is not the same man.” Full Story
I’ve come to South Africa a little bit ahead of my speaking tour next week to spend a few days “on safari.” Which is another way to say that I am comfortably ensconced in a game lodge next to Kruger Park, relaxing and trying to get some time to think. We’ve been reasonably lucky on the game runs: besides the usual lions, rhinoceri, water buffalo, etc., we’ve seen both cheetah and leopard, two animals that avoided my vicinity on every other trip to Africa. I’m here at the end of the rainy season, so everything is lush and green, and you have to get a little lucky to find the animals in the dense bush. Full Story
Dubai became the biggest transit city for gold in the world last year with around 40 per cent of the global physical gold trade passing through the city at 2,250 tonnes, according to the executive chairman of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Ahmed bin Sulayem speaking at the opening of the annual Dubai Precious Metals Conference today. Full Story
The Nasdaq down by 2.6 per cent led Wall Street lower on Friday after the US non-farm payrolls jobs data came in below expectations and traders sold momentum stocks from the tech sector. The Dow Jones Index failed to top its previous high and so did not confirm a Dow Theory bull market breakout (click here), though it has to fall through 15,372 to predict a new bear market and closed at 16,412. Full Story
As dramatically different as these two eras are, they are even worse when we consider the structural change, where the US family income shifted from a single to a two family income, which closely mirrors these two eras. The good news, at least on the surface, is that while topping $81 Trillion, the US Household Sector Net Worth is now at a historic high after recovering dramatically from the 2008 financial crisis. It is up over $25T from the post-crisis low and 17% above its pre-crisis peak. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 6 April, 2014
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” goal was to end a long miserable decade and a half of deflation by kick starting the economy. This was going to happen because of massive yen creation. The fiat balloon would induce consumers to spend and corporations to reinvest profits, convinced by a rising stock market and surging exports that all is well. Full Story
Being successful in trading has a lot to do with finding the developing “story” behind the price structure of a market. We had good results in February because we keyed into some very important pieces of market information that would lead to a likely result for the direction of price, or what we call “the story of the market.” We had less success in March because the focus was more on trying to catch up to the story, where being just a step or so behind is not as rewarding, even resulting in loss. Full Story
Markets remained weak and choppy as we build out a base. we really only saw very quick opportunities or no more than 3 days of trend. It’s not an easy market, or one for the feint of heart and that’s why we’ve been in cash for weeks now as we wait for the easy money to return and it will. This consolidation is great and will lead to an easy strong market once again soon. Likely within 2 weeks at the most. Full Story
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