The markets have for the most part already priced in a Fed rate hike which is expected next week. Yesterday fed funds futures indicated an 80% chance of a rate hike. It would be the first hike in roughly 9 years. The Fed last began a new hiking cycle in 2004. We consult history to decipher the potential impact (of a rate hike) on the embattled precious metals sector. Full Story
In today’s letter, I have transcribed a conversation George and I had a few days ago. In it, we talk about how our new joint effort came about and why George has left Stratfor to create his new firm, Geopolitical Futures. I feel very fortunate that George has agreed to join forces with me. At the conclusion of today’s letter, I’ll share a little more about our joint vision from my own point of view. First, let’s go to my interview with George. Full Story
The word play in the title is in reference to the ridiculous fuss over COMEX gold inventory and other promotions masquerading as fundamentals put out by cartoons masquerading as analysis. 30 year divided by, and 30 year minus 5 year are neutral at best. Yield spreads would be rising in a gold-positive environment. As a side note, this spread also tends to bring trouble for the stock market during its initial stages of rising. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 11 December, 2015
Gold’s deep new secular lows of recent weeks were fueled by American futures speculators’ overpowering fear of Fed rate hikes. They believe zero-yielding gold is doomed in a higher-rate world, so they dumped gold futures at astounding record rates. The problem is history proves just the opposite, that gold tends to thrive during Fed-rate-hike cycles. This revelation is a super-bullish near-term omen for gold. Full Story
Chris welcomes back, friend of the show David Gurwitz, Managing Director at Nenner Research. Their technical work suggests the recent rally in gold and silver could continue; targets and turning points are included in the discussion. One stock of interest is Alcoa (AA), which he lists among several buy/sell signals. The cycles indicate the greenback rally could fade in 2016, setting a floor for the commodities including crude oil and the yellow metal. The long-range outlook calls for increased volatility amid a potential global military conflict, which is overdue judging by 100 year cycles. Full Story
Based on this chart alone, it is my opinion that the FED is going to make a mistake. Either it will raise and find out it cannot get the Funds rate to .25% or worse, they choose not to raise and lose credibility for a very long time. Below is a chart of gold in Rands, which has dramatic implications for all of the South African miners. Incidentally, most of these miners are trading at levels that would imply sever balance sheet impairment. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 10 December, 2015
On November 30th the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would admit China's Renminbi currency, commonly known as the Yuan, to the select basket of reserve currencies that make up its Special Drawing Rights (SDR's). Having been stalled by U.S. influence for many years, the long-awaited IMF decision acknowledges the massive transfer of financial power from the old West to the new East. The move heralds an era of potentially great change with global implications for politics, economics and investments. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 10 December, 2015
Interviewed yesterday by Rory Hall for The Daily Coin, your secretary/treasurer discussed the decline in gold ready for delivery against futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange, China's hastening acquisition of gold, the unreliability of official gold reserve data, the use of gold by central banks to control the currency markets, the authority U.S. law gives the U.S. government to rig all markets in secret, and the use of currency market rigging to control the world, just as currency market rigging was the primary mechanism by which Nazi Germany exploited occupied Europe during World War II. Full Story
It’s an unfortunate truth that, when people are worried about the future, they often put their faith in politicians to somehow make everything better. Politicians, of course, are famous for promising panaceas for whatever troubles voters and inventing new troubles for voters to worry about, presenting themselves as the only ones who can solve these woes. Full Story
Morgan Stanley surprised everyone or, at least, tried to by stating that it was no longer going to be easy to make money in the equity markets. Let’s stop, right there; was it ever really easy. If it were everyone that jumped into the markets would be wealthy, instead the opposite is true. Right of the bat, we can state that the best place for such advice is the dustbin. Full Story
In 2008, the world experienced the worst economic collapse in 80+ years. This collapse triggered a stock market crash that erased $30 trillion in wealth. Since that time, collectively Central Banks have cut interest rates over 600 times and have printed over $15 trillion in new money… money that has failed to generate sustained economic growth… money that has set the stage for another stock market crash. Full Story
Chris welcomes back Louis Navellier of Navellier Growth. His work indicates its time for investors to increase their gold and silver portfolio allocation by 50%, due to profligate central banking policies. Investors in Japan / Europe are advised to increase gold exposure amid negative yielding savings alternatives. The recent gold / silver coin shortages at the US, Canadian, Royal and Australian Mints indicate tight supply. Full Story
A significant undercurrent of internal weakness is plaguing the NYSE broad market. This weakness is primarily visible in the dangerously high numbers of stocks making new 52-week lows. Lately that number has exceeded 300 on a daily basis, though it has been above 40 for the last few months in a sign that the market’s health is less than optimal. The best way of showing this internal weakness is in the following exhibit which graphs the cumulative new 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE. Full Story
Watching the price action in the currency markets it is becoming clearer to me that the Forex crowd has now moved beyond any expected rate hike by the Fed next week and has shifted its focus to “WHAT COMES AFTER THAT?” In other words, we have probably seen the high in the US Dollar for a bit since the impact on the currency has effectively already been discounted into its price. Seeing the Fed Funds futures showing a probability of a Fed rate hike next week above 80%, for all practical trading purposes, it is now a done deal. Full Story
As the world’s central banks perform increasingly bizarre and desperate maneuvers to keep the financial system from falling apart, the most frequently asked question we receive is: What should I do? Unfortunately, there’s no simple answer to that question. Even seasoned pros running gigantic funds are baffled by the unusual set of conditions created by 4 decades of excessive borrowing and 7 years of aggressive money printing by central banks. We expect market conditions to be even more perilous in 2016 as they are here in December 2015. Worse, we fear a major market correction -- if not a financial/banking accident of historic proportions -- could easily happen in the not too distant future. Full Story
Many situations around the world now look to be coming to a head. Geopolitically the East/West push and pull has heated up in the Middle East. Iraq now looks to be pivoting toward Mr. Putin and Russia and away from the U.S. Turkey's recent shoot down of a Russian plane also turned up the heat. Economically, the price of oil breaking through $40 has shone a spotlight on a weak global economy and confirms weakness. Trade, whether international or internal is collapsing. Freight rates are at decade lows and even internally, trucking has collapsed. Full Story
Ever since the U.S. left the gold standard for good in 1971, some politicians and investors have called for its return. At one of the Republican presidential debates in October, Texas Senator Ted Cruz became the latest, touting the stability and booming prosperity the U.S. economy enjoyed in the years when the dollar was pegged to the yellow metal. Full Story
Honest money – gold and silver – are not supported by governments and central bankers for obvious reasons. The Fed can “print” $85 Billion per month to buy dodgy paper to support the banking system, but the Fed can’t produce 75 million ounces of gold each month. Consequently we use dishonest money. Full Story
Despite widespread pessimism, apathy, and derision towards the sector, gold and gold stocks present an extremely rare opportunity. Gold stocks are on track to record 5 years of losses starting in 2011 with the $HUI gold bugs index plunging 84% percent from 2011 to 2015. Gold is on pace to put in a 3+ year bear market with 3 years of losses. But the utter destruction in this sector is what has created an awesome opportunity. The only question is the timing of when this can be capitalized on. Full Story
Even most of the bulls I read strongly believe that we have to see a capitulation drop below $1,000 in gold before a bottom can be seen. But, as we know, when too many expect the market to do something, the market usually has a surprise in store for them. Anyone remember how sure a thing it was that the gold market was going to exceed $2,000 in 2011? Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 December, 2015
We no longer have to wait for the collapse of U.S. shale oil production, it already has begun. Unfortunately, this is bad news for the U.S. Government and domestic economy. Falling U.S. oil production will put severe stress on the highly leveraged debt based financial system over the next several years. Full Story
We are told that many economics experts don't worry about the total national debt because $5 trillion of that debt doesn't really exist; it is rather just a theoretical bookkeeping transaction for money that the federal government owes to itself. Netting out this bookkeeping entry then allows some authorities assert that while the debt is a bit on the high side relative to the size of the economy, it is far from historically unprecedented, and certainly no cause for despair or rash talk about insolvency. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 8 December, 2015
Over the past year, while the U.S. economy has continually missed expectations, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has assured all who could stay awake during her press conferences that it was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy. In delivering months of mildly tough talk (with nothing in the way of action), Yellen began stressing that WHEN the Fed would finally raise rates (for the first time in almost a decade) was not nearly as important as how fast and how high the increases would be once they started. Full Story
When times change, champions change with the times. To survive in the West’s new era of long term slow growth, business owners have essentially had to reinvent themselves. Their mantra is adapt or die. The gold market is also changing, and so the champions known as the Western gold community need to change with it. To understand part of the change, please click here now: Gold price discovery is moving, slowly and consistently, from the West to the East. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 8 December, 2015
Don’t be confused. Gold and silver prices will skyrocket in the future based on the fundamentals, not technical analysis. Not only will fundamentals be the important factor in the future, they have also been the leading indicators over the past 50 years. I realize I will get a great deal of flak for stating this, but the facts presented below paint a pretty clear picture. Now, while it’s true that the many of the gold and silver analysts (including this independent analyst) under estimated the level at which the Fed and Central Banks could prop up the Greatest Ponzi Scheme in history… it’s better to have ones precious metal insurance a bit early than late. Full Story
By: Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories - 8 December, 2015
The combination of decision makers at the ECB and US Fed this month loom largest for near term market direction for both equities and currencies. The monthly payroll report and the latest decision by OPEC on cutting (or not) oil production will also impact. Some of this will be coming at you immediately after you read this editorial. The Fed meeting, arguably the most important data point is furthest away but only two weeks out. Full Story
This article was originally and simply titled ‘Market Management’ as the opening segment from this week’s NFTRH 372. We then covered US and global stock markets and precious metals in detail, along with brief but ongoing negativity about commodities (but also what to look for regarding signs of change), a currency update and extensive market sentiment and indicator updates. Full Story
Perhaps silver and gold futures finally caught a safe-haven bid on news of the terrorism-linked shooting in Southern California. Or perhaps it was a relief rally based on metals being heavily oversold and investors realizing that a quarter percent Fed rate hike may already be “priced-in.” Especially given that Janet Yellen stood out front last week and downplayed the significance of raising rates. She wants investors to expect lower average rates than we've seen historically and to know a decision to hike in December does NOT necessarily mean more rate hikes will follow. Full Story
Among the endangered species in Sweden are the gray wolf, European otter—and cash. Back in June, I shared with you the story of how, in 1661, the Scandinavian monarchy became the first country in the world to issue paper money. (It was an unmitigated disaster, by the way.) Now it might be the first to ban it altogether. Full Story
John Maynard Keynes made that admission to Henry Clay, a member of the Bank of England's Advisory Committee, in 1946. Ten days later he passed away. Keynes had come full circle – from economic interventionist extraordinaire to proponent of Adam Smith's laissez faire. Twenty-five years after that, Richard Nixon would suspend dollar convertibility, scrap the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime system of which Keynes was the principal architect and allow currencies and gold to float freely in international markets. The fiat money system of the late 20th and early 21st centuries was born. Though a radically different system from the one Keynes created in the aftermath of World War II, Richard Nixon declared upon its launch that "we are all Keynsians now." Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 7 December, 2015
Controlling the world through currency market rigging is actually an old story. While the world imagines Nazi Germany's looting of occupied Europe during World War II as a matter of soldiers with bayonets on their rifles breaking into banks, shops, and museums and carrying away the contents, the primary Nazi method of expropriation was actually currency market rigging. Full Story
Although gold got most of the attention this week with its price gains, platinum was the best performing precious metal, rising 5.17 percent. The price gains in the metal did not transmit to stock gains for the platinum producers though, as the FTSE/JSE African Platinum Index collapsed 28.74 percent for the week. Despite reinforcement of a December rate hike on news of a strong U.S. jobs report, bullion investors saw past the headline numbers and are taking the long view on gold, according to Bloomberg. Full Story
We have seen the same song sung over and over again by the Doctors of Doom; the markets are going to crash, the world is going to come to an end, or some other pretentious title. Let’s cut to the chase, the markets are not going to crash; they could experience a strong correction at some future date but that would just present you with another opportunity to buy quality stocks. Could the markets crash? That is a possibility, but you could kick the bucket before the event plays out the way the naysayers have envisioned. Full Story
So what exactly happened last Thursday? The markets (including the dollar) crashed ...and this was not supposed to happen? It's actually quite easy to understand if you see what they did was "only a test" ... Do you understand what I mean when I say a "test"? I will explain shortly but first, the Fed came out with piggybacked governors talking about a rate hike. Hilarious on the face of it if you just look at the U.S. economic implosion going on. But let's assume this is reality, the Fed really wants to hike rates (they do not "want to", they HAVE to). Full Story
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have created a very dangerous situation. Throughout the last six years, there has been a sense of coordination between the Fed and ECB. This was evident both in terms of where capital went as well as how it was delivered via monetary policy. Full Story
Every week when I write letters to you, I face the question of what to write about and where to start. I actually had a story finished for you early Friday (and it was unusual for me to be done so early). As luck would have it, the one time I finished early, some minor loose ends prevented me from using that story just yet. This unexpected turn socked me back in front of that intimidating blank screen this weekend, the one all writers who face regular deadlines dread. Usually I explore a single topic in depth; but, this weekend, staring at the screen, I was inspired me to try something different. Full Story
The volatile choppiness over the last 3 weeks or so, since the INDU first made contact with the neckline, looks like a triangle formation which I would view as a halfway pattern to the upside. Below is the exact same chart as the one above but this one has the blue triangle on it that is creating the right shoulder. So when we look at the Chartology since the August low we can see a double bottom with the small blue bullish rising wedge and now the potential bigger blue triangle forming the right shoulder. Full Story
Best selling author / mathematician / economist, Dr. Leeb and the host discuss a disturbing trend in the domestic economy. Despite the lowest Jobless Claims numbers in decades, economic growth remains anemic. Given the 75% odds of an FOMC rate hike at the December meeting, the first in nearly a decade, the strong dollar and resulting higher rates will continue to put pressure on the mortgage / housing sector as well as the general economy. Chris welcomes Dr. Martenson from PeakProsperity.com - Dr. Martenson categorizes capital into eight essential types in his new must read book, Prosper! The good doctor is concerned about a potentially risky period of economic deflation, were insufficient money And credit are available to sustain high debt levels, with as much as $200 trillion in default risk. Full Story
Conclusion: gold broke out convincingly on Friday to start an intermediate uptrend that will result in worthwhile gains from here for a wide range of investments across the sector. While the bearmarket may reassert itself later, latest gold COTs are so bullish that we may have seen the final low – it may be over. We will know if it succeeds in breaking out of the Falling Wedge shown on the 7-year chart. Full Story
We've spent countless hours writing about the fraudulent nature of the Comex pricing scheme. We've discussed how The Banks manipulate and control this paper derivative market and, by understanding this one simple fact, we're often able to correctly forecast short-term trend changes in price. This is why there's a TF Metals Report in the first place. As we've stated for over five years: "Turd Ferguson isn't a psychic, a soothsayer or a witch. After all this time, he simply has a decent handle of the precious metals markets". Full Story
The catalyst seems to be the Bureau of Labor Statics jobs report. There were a few more jobs created than expected, which means the economy is doing well and/or the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates this month (the Fed has said it is basing its decision on labor market conditions, among other indicators). Whatever it was, it lit the fuse and sent the silver price up 45 cents. It held this level, and this represents the entire silver price gain for the week. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 6 December, 2015
While the Fed's raising U.S. interest rates would tend to strengthen the dollar and increase the burden of dollar-denominated debt, about which the BIS and many others are warning, a simultaneously rising gold price would tend to devalue the dollar. It would be one foot on the brake ostentatiously, the other foot on the accelerator surreptitiously, allowing the Fed to save face after its many postponements of raising rates while continuing to support asset inflation. Full Story
The gold price didn’t do a whole heck of a lot in Far East and morning trading in London on their respective Fridays, but starting around ten minutes before the COMEX open, the gold price spiked up over ten bucks—and was promptly capped the moment trading began in New York. It began to sell off from there—aided and abetted by the release of the job numbers at 8:30 a.m. EST. But that effect didn’t last long—and within a few minutes of the news, the gold price took off to the upside. The high tick came around 10:20 a.m. in New York—and after that it wandered sideways for the remainder of the Friday session. Full Story
It’s no coincidence this army came into existence in 1979, eight year after the US left the gold standard and when China started opening up under the guidance of Deng Xiaoping. As, this was the moment the Chinese slowly started to reform their economy and made the first preparations in their gold market. They knew, among others, the global dollar standard wouldn’t last forever. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 6 December, 2015
To give you a sense of the numbers we are currently working with, we would suggest your 10 mln estimate is conservative for 2015. 10% to 15% seems reasonable in normal years, but given the remarkable shortage of coins in North American in the third quarter and anecdotal information and data obtained from market players, we have estimated upwards of 20-40 mln ounces of privately minted coins sold in the region this year. As mentioned though, we are still working on these figures and they are by no means final. Full Story
A seminar about gold supporting the internationalization of the renminbi and China’s financial strength was held in Beijing on 18 September 2015. One of the keynote speakers was Song Xin, President of the China Gold Association (CGA), Chairman of the Board of China International Resources Corporation, President of China National Gold Group Corporation and Party Secretary, who believes China’s economic power must be serviced by appropriate gold reserves to support the renminbi. Full Story
In other words, the markets are now in a “SELL THE RUMOR, BUY THE FACT” mode when it comes to gold. This does not mean gold is about to embark on a new bull market. What it does seem to mean for now is that the market is going to stabilize down here. We will have to continue watching the charts as well as the Dollar price action as well as looking at GLD to see if reported holdings actually begin to rise. My thinking is that if we do not see an increase in the holdings, then this rally is going to fade. Full Story
Markets showed some weakness on Wednesday and then Thursday saw that weakness confirmed so I locked in all my swing trading profits from the last couple of weeks, expecting further downside and about a week for a low to be established. Lo and behold, Friday saw a massive reversal higher and closed strongly, so this weekend will be full of research to figure out what to do if the low is in, or if we have further to fall. Full Story
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