Gold miners’ exchange-traded funds are surging with gold powering higher. These mounting gains are naturally fueling growing interest in the leading gold-stock investment vehicles. Traders looking to deploy capital are wondering which major gold-stock ETF is superior, offering the best balance between upside potential, component fundamentals, and risks. GDXJ takes the crown, besting its larger big brother GDX.
By my count, there are currently 14 gold miners ETFs trading in US markets. But that’s not authoritative, as the broader ETF industry is constantly in flux. These gold-stock ETFs collectively held $17.5b in net assets as of the middle of this week. And two major ETFs utterly dominated, commanding fully 85.1% of all those gold-stock investments! Full Story
This need for a safe haven… an escape from the dollar… and a hedge against the stock market is setting up gold for a massive run.
If the U.S. Fed continues to raise interest rates and pops the stock market bubble… investors are going to come fleeing into the one safe haven that’s stood guarding your wealth over the last 4,000 years: gold.
And if the system keeps chugging along…
Then the $7+ trillion that central banks around the globe have pumped into the markets over the last 6 years is almost certainly going to kick off a massive wave of inflation… sending gold prices soaring. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 11 January, 2019
Over the last several weeks, I have seen those that were absolutely certain back in September and October that gold was going to drop below $1,000 now turn into major bulls in the metals complex. The silver rally especially has gotten the attention of many metal’s traders, and has everyone now all bulled up for a major break out in the complex.
It really is amazing to watch how price extremes dictate the manner in which investor’s views are driven about a market... Full Story
If we are, as I believe, on the precipice of a major decline in stocks, the question in my mind as we head into 2019 is to what extent U.S. Treasuries will continue to be the main go-to market in the risk-off trade and to what extent might a loss of confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency lead to a rise in the price of gold? Full Story
By: Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics - 10 January, 2019
The stock market has gone “Roman Candle” since Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, gave a speech that was interpreted as a precursor to the Fed softening its stance on monetary policy. Not that intermittent quarter-point Fed Funds rate nudges higher or a barely negligible decline in the Fed’s balance sheet should be considered “tight” money policy. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Investments - 10 January, 2019
It all starts with the Fed... In assessing our crystal ball for 2019, the starting point is the Federal Reserve (Fed) because they provide an anchor for the price of risk-free assets (Treasuries) around which risk assets are priced.1 When rates were near zero and the Fed purchased Treasuries, it wasn’t only Treasury yields that were depressed, but the Fed pulled down yields of risk assets as well. Differently said, the Fed made it appear as if risky assets were less risky; this didn’t only affect bonds, but also equities that enjoyed years of rising prices on the backdrop of low volatility. This was the era of compressed risk premia. Full Story
Reasonable questions should be answered reasonably. When such questions cannot be answered reasonably or at all, particularly by those with a responsibility for answering, something is wrong. A good number of such questions remain unanswered in silver and those not providing answers include the federal commodities regulator (the CFTC), the designated self-regulator (the CME Group), as well as the most important bank in the US, JPMorgan.
What constitutes a reasonable question in silver? I would define questions to be reasonable if they encompass occurrences known to be unprecedented either in silver or in any other market and in which the questions have been repeatedly asked, yet remain unanswered. To be sure, there are several such unanswered questions in silver that date back as long as a decade; each one of which stands out in terms of potential significance, but taken together point to something being seriously out of kilter in the silver market. Full Story
As we look ahead, we expect that the interplay between market risk and economic growth in 2019 will drive gold demand. And we explore three key trends that we expect will influence its price performance:
financial market instability monetary policy and the US dollar structural economic reforms Full Story
In short, the world is a different place now than it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis in terms of gold production. Should physical demand soar once again as did in the 2009-2013 period, we could get the same price response we did then. Even as it is, substantially less metal is reaching the marketplace at a time when central banks have become net buyers of the metal and investor demand, though presently in a lull, is generally on the rise.
The trends now favor "strong-handed" long-term gold investors holding for asset preservation purposes and capable of weathering the market's ups and downs. As for the official sector, the trend toward building gold reserves is likely to continue. More and more emerging countries are likely to see diversification as in their best interest while established states are likely to hold close the gold reserves they already own. Full Story
The stock market is not out of the woods, technically. Nominal markets are bouncing as expected to logical resistance areas. The SPX/Gold ratio has however taken a lot of the froth (and risk) out. We cannot rule out a near-term fill of the lower gap on SPX/Gold or a longer-term fill of the upper gap. The current NFTRH plan is that the stock market’s correction is not over (pending our bounce parameters and key resistance) but nor necessarily, is its major bull market. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 9 January, 2019
The inordinately large global financial-bubble in paper assets as well as an inflated housing echo-bubble part II. The Federal Reserve may soon reverse monetary policy to shore up the housing market and domestic economy.
According to Shadowstats.com's economic-data revisions, the culprit remains understated inflation-figures, that vastly overstate the GDP numbers.
As the masses recognize the economic slight-of-hand, a panic for hard assets will inevitably ensue, sending overinflated paper assets into the abyss. Full Story
Why devaluation? The political and financial elite prefer fiat currencies they control and print. They increase their wealth while the rest of us… you know the drill. (They get the gold, you pay the debts.)
Rules in the Eccles Prison: We must use their “funny money” as currency. We are stuck with continual devaluation of the currency. We pretend funny money is a store of value, which history contradicts. Full Story
King Dollar was on top in 2018, one of the few major assets to close the year in the black on steady interest rate hikes and robust economic growth in the U.S. But greenback strength is a double-edged sword, as you know. Although good for U.S. consumers, it can hamper exporters, commodities, oil, gold and more.
So will rates continue to rise in 2019? If so, the dollar will follow suit, putting additional pressure on other assets. I think there are a number of signs that the rate hike we saw in December could be the last one this cycle. Full Story
Over the last five years, markets have pushed concerns about debt under the rug.
While economic growth and record-low interest rates have made it easy to service existing government debt, it’s also created a situation where government debt has grown in to over $63 trillion in absolute terms. Full Story
By: Harris Kupperman, Adventures in Capitalism - 7 January, 2019
I suspect that as we get into 2019, we’ll learn that many of the most powerful underlying trends supporting the Dollar will become less supportive. From the Fed putting a pause into rate increases to a slowdown of economic growth as interest rates take their bite; the Dollar’s supports are slowly being removed. Full Story
Merrill Lynch research analyst Michael Jalonen writes that the outlook for gold in 2019 is very promising, with the potential to reach $1,400 per ounce by the end of the year. This could happen due to U.S. twin deficits and China easing monetary policy. Barrick Gold’s new CEO says that shakeups in the gold industry are just starting. Full Story
Season 14 kicks off with part II of the discussion with Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors, with stellar news for gold shares aficionado. "PM's stocks will go to the equivalent of $10,000 gold," in the nascent bull market advance. Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies LLC returns to Goldseek.com Radio with comprehensive economic analysis. While his Autumn economic / market downturn came to pass as predicted on this show, market rallies may be merely selling opportunities. Full Story
By: Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals - 7 January, 2019
In an environment of the Fed saying it will drop rates to accommodate the stock market, we might get a return to the halcyon days of 2009-2011.
So we cautiously take the position that the prices of the metals are likely to rise from here.
One thing is for sure, it’s not curtains for the dollar or America. That day will come, but to fall back to our favorite quote from our favorite movie character, Aragorn, “today is not that day.” Full Story
2019 started as 2018 ended—volatile. The year had barely started when we had our first 600-point down day. That was the seventh in the past year. The 600-point down day, sparked by Apple’s earnings, was immediately followed by a 700-point-plus up day, thanks to rosy job numbers and Fed Chair Jerome Powell soft-pedalling interest rate hikes. Feeling whipsawed yet? Full Story
Remember when it was a January ritual to fill in the new year on your blank checks? If you’re under 50, probably not. That we can now avoid that chore is one of life’s unsung little pleasures. But this time of year still comes, and by popular demand I must tell you what I think 2019 will bring. Full Story
If the debt continues to grow at an unsustainable level, it could expose the country to a number of dangers. In the extreme, the risk rises that Washington’s lenders, many of whom are foreign, could suddenly lose confidence, demand higher interest rates, and trigger a fiscal crisis. Short of that, rising debt could gradually squeeze discretionary spending and deny the country tools it needs for security and economic stability. Reducing the debt will require politically difficult decisions to either curb entitlement spending, raise taxes or both. Full Story
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