By: The Gold Report and Jay Taylor - 10 July, 2009
Deflation or inflation, gold is as good as it gets, according to Jay Taylor. Jay, who developed the J. Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks Model Portfolio, has established an enviable track record in the markets. In this exclusive chat with The Gold Report, Jay talks about what economic insights he's gleaned from guests on his radio show," Turning Hard Times Into Good Times," and how owning gold shares can be advantageous in a deflationary period. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 10 July, 2009
A reader asks: "Are defaults deflationary? When borrowers default on loans, does not the currency disappear in the same manner that it appeared?" I answer: That's the popular thought, they call that "deflation", but it's not what is happening. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 10 July, 2009
It is our belief that the dollar will decline meaningfully for many reasons including the following: 1. the exploding US budget deficit; 2. the government’s reliance on foreigners to fund this deficit; and, 3. interest rates will remain at 0% due to the weak economy making it difficult for the US to attract capital. Full Story
IF WE ARE SLIPPING into a Japan-style depression, as signaled perhaps by the swollen demand (and supply) for government debt worldwide, then recovery might take longer than almost anyone guesses. Full Story
In markets such as the (relatively) Small Cap markets for Gold and Silver Bullion and Securities, Cartel manipulation attempts can have much more impact and are, at times, and for certain time periods, tantamount to control. Typically, Interventions in the Precious Metals Markets depress prices dramatically. Full Story
Ms. Lips, we believe your father left behind a great legacy to future generations. His book “Gold Wars” viewed the gold market from a completely new perspective at the time. Do you know what motivated or gave him the idea to write the book? Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 10 July, 2009
Investment has been a core element of the silver market since its very beginning. For thousands of years investors stored a portion of their wealth in this white metal via such vehicles as ornamentals and jewelry. Silver investment has also been facilitated through a variety of monetary systems. In fact many historians believe this metal was used in the oldest form of coinage. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 10 July, 2009
In a free market, demand is always a function of price: the higher the price, the lower the demand. What may surprise most politicians is that these rules apply equally to both prices and wages. When employers evaluate their labor and capital needs, cost is a primary factor. When the cost of hiring low-skilled workers moves higher, jobs are lost. Despite this, minimum wage hikes, like the one set to take effect later this month, are always seen as an act of governmental benevolence. Nothing could be further from the truth. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 10 July, 2009
After raising the issue of a new global reserve currency and only finding some verbal support from France's President Sarkozy the issue of replacing the $ with another or other currencies was put firmly on the table at the G-8 conference this week. The issue, while acknowledged, was not treated seriously, we believe a major error on the part of the G-8! Full Story
Ever since the sentimentally unsustainable negative events of Q4, 2008, when gold simply exploded higher in ratio to over-played assets far and wide in a panicked rush for safety, the ancient monetary metal has been consolidating its relative gains. As noted at the time in NFTRH, this excessive reaction had to be worked off. Now, unfortunately for the unprepared and hopeful, it has been worked off. Forewarned is forearmed. Full Story
Politicians, economists and the media are assuring the public that everything is fine. But governments around the world are frantically borrowing trillions of dollars to fund bailout and stimulus plans, the stock markets have lost over 40% of their value, real estate over 50%, and unemployment is approaching 10% in most major countries. Full Story
The summary outlook, according to Howe, is that we are in the very early stages of a 20-year period of economic and institutional upheaval – an era denominated by a crisis during which we’ll likely witness the tearing down and reconstruction of many aspects of society as we know it... Following is my high-level recap of my long conversation with Neil Howe, along with some general thoughts on the investment implications of a 20-year bear market. Full Story
Chairman Watt, Ranking Member Paul, and other members of the Subcommittee, I appreciate the opportunity to discuss with you the important public policy reasons why the Congress has long given the Federal Reserve a substantial degree of independence to conduct monetary policy while ensuring that we remain accountable to the Congress and to the American people. Full Story
The very fact that dealers are so anxious to buy scrap gold makes me suspicious that the dealers may be preparing for the coming time when there will be a confiscation of gold. In that context, dealers holding used gold jewelry can really clean up by selling some of this secure form of gold back to the public. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 10 July, 2009
The point of all of this is that the Happy Days for the slimy insiders in the silver futures and options market, and those glorious days when you and I could buy ounce after ounce silver at these low, low, unheard-of low prices, are almost certainly all gone, now that the Senate has found willful corruption, and so the day will soon come when silver, free from the slimy manipulations of insiders that one could even argue violate the 14th Amendment, will rise, perhaps a dozen-fold, in price, re-establishing the 16:1 ratio of silver to gold, which will also be, almost certainly, up. Full Story
Even after the recent rally, the stock market is still down about 35% since 2000, while the price of gold has risen almost 400%. It seems logical, at least to me, to expect investors to have become a little intrigued towards gold. But strangely, that hasn't been the case. Full Story
The second half of 2009 will be dominated by differences of opinion about the depth, length and, we think most importantly, the geography of the recession. The global economy realigning to eastern and southern growth is increasingly obvious to us, but many in the west still doubt the underpinnings of this growth. That doubt is as worrying as the weak economic stats coming from the “mature” economies. Full Story
In the past, the poem just brought thoughts of pity for the poor maiden and her headstrong father. This time though, an allegory struck me. The Father/Skipper is the world's central bankers and governments who have fastened us, say Lady Liberty or the maiden, to the mast using the bonds of fiat money. We too, may have little warning before the time arrives when we realize that the central bankers are powerless and frozen dead at the wheel. Full Story
Our measure of how bad is it in this economy for a broad swath of Americans can be analyzed by asking three basic questions: Are people working, are they making any money, and do they have any money in reserves? To answer these questions and more, below are some shocking facts! Full Story
The last few days have sent a lot of investors scurrying back to the sidelines. The correction, which I’ve been calling the most widely anticipated correction in years, has reignited fears that even an anemic recovery might be farther away than most investors expect. Full Story
Speaking Wednesday on Judge Andrew Napolitano's "Freedom Watch" program on Fox News, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, remarked that one of the purposes of his increasingly popular legislation to audit the Federal Reserve is to expose how the Fed has been manipulating the price of gold to support the dollar. Paul's comment on gold price manipulation comes at 4 minutes and 30 seconds into the interview. Full Story
The broad market including commodities is under some serious selling pressure as traders and investors panic to exit positions. Today small caps stocks and commodities took the majority of the beating. Although the market looks bearish at this point, I do think there is a very good chance of a bounce Thursday and Friday, but I figure we will see selling into the close on Friday as traders stay in cash over the weekend. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 9 July, 2009
Just because I am safely and securely locked inside the Fabulous Mogambo Bunker (FMB) doesn’t mean that I am unaware of things, especially those things concerning inflation in consumer prices, which is the One Big Thing (OBT) to be feared above all others, even more than that paralyzing fear of someone seeing you doing you-know-what, especially when they see you doing you-know-what with you-know-who and the can of whipped cream, which you never did use, which is the one saving grace about the whole thing. Full Story
(The following commentary was written by Chuck Cohen, one of the smartest investors we know. After this three-part series ends on Monday, Chuck will be contributing to Rick's Picks on a regular basis, focusing in particular on opportunities in junior gold stocks. RA) Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 8 July, 2009
In economics, as in many other “soft sciences,” facts are often overshadowed by theories. The dominant economic theory currently in vogue is that the massive government stimuli orchestrated by the Bush and Obama administrations would produce an economic recovery by the end of this year. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 8 July, 2009
The Obama administration may start its program to spur purchases of mortgage-backed securities from banks with about $20 billion in public and private money, down from as much as $100 billion when the effort was announced in March, sources said. The Treasury Department will provide about $1.1 billion in capital to eight to 10 money managers it will select for its Public-Private Investment Program. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 8 July, 2009
For over ten years, www.GATA.org has gathered information and admissions from central bankers and major bullion banks that the price of gold on the world market is manipulated lower than it should be. Well, one more admission is close enough for me to be counted as one more proof. Full Story
Unbelievable action from the Riksbank, Government Sachs, and commentary from Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading, yet a little funny at the same time. As the Romans would say "Hostem inveni et interfice." Full Story
At present, the investment community is divided as to whether the world economy faces hyperinflation or deflation. Some observers are convinced that the central banks’ printing press will take the world towards hyperinflation whereas others believe that the ongoing contraction in American private-sector debt will result in outright deflation. So, what will the future bring? Full Story
Therefore, the critical question is not whether there will be inflation or deflation. The vital questions for your portfolio is whether and when will there be a currency collapse and how to best prepare yourself. Full Story
It is interesting to read that optimism among US stock investors is pretty high at the moment, despite three weeks of falling stocks and another sell off on Wall Street yesterday. Some might take that optimism as a contrary indicator, saying that a top can not be called until optimism is at a peak. Reading investor psychology is always controversial but very relevant in any market. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 8 July, 2009
In short, all things end, including the phase where a national idiocy prevailed where everyone “invests for the long term” by putting all their money into stocks, bonds, houses, bigger government and an orgy of over-consumption, which is proven to be the wrong thing to do, and where people did not put their money in gold, which is the proven right thing to do, as even a Glornassian Crapworm knows. Full Story
Gold continues to hang tough in the midst of oil’s nasty selloff. Although August crude has fallen more than 14%, from last Tuesday’s peak of $73.38, a Comex Gold futures contract expiring the same month lost just 2.5% of its value during the same period, falling from $947 to $924. The fact that gold has not plummeted in sympathy with oil strongly hints that it will be quite feisty when selling in the oil pits finally lets up. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 7 July, 2009
In the midst of the longest and deepest, post World-War II recession, America’s financial position with the rest of the world has deteriorated sharply. Three decades of massive trade deficits have turned the United States from the world’s top lender to the world’s largest debtor, - and dependent upon the whims of the so-called emerging nations, laden with huge foreign currency reserves, to finance the bailout of Wall Street Oligarchs, and President Barack Obama’s social programs. Full Story
What is this “last time” I refer to? I think we are approaching the final stages of the great silver manipulation. While I can’t give you a date, I’d like to review the reasons why I think that‘s the case. If I’m correct, it means that the days of depressed silver prices will soon be over. It means the price will, at a minimum, reach the true free market price, which is much higher. Full Story
The short answer: somewhere around halfway through it. The long answer follows. The price to earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently greater than 100 and earnings are not coming back strong in the next few quarters, I can assure you. If you think so, stop reading here and go back to CNBC to get your analysis. Cramer has a hot stock tip for you right now! Full Story
All the hyperbole in the mainstream media announcing imminent changes by the CFTC (Commodities and Futures Trading Commission) amounts only to so much spin and P.R. There aren’t too many thinking adults involved even peripherally in the global poker game known as the Futures market who still believe the house always wins by dint of natural statistical preference. Full Story
A story is making the rounds on the internet these days describing the practical interpretation the average Joe (and plain Jane, too) is putting on the way in which the U.S. government is dealing with the country’s current financial woes. I’ve done some editing and enhancing and present it below for your amusement and enlightenment and have added a segment with some insights and suggestions on how we can all potentially recoup the losses we incurred in 2008. Full Story
Pressure is building for Gold. The chart shows a pattern of higher lows and a horizontal resistance line just below the $1,000 level, thus forming a triangle pattern. The normal market response would be a breakout to the upside because the bulls are getting more and more eager to step in (higher lows). Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 7 July, 2009
In 2006, 2007 and 2008, rising inflation expectations during the first half of the year prompted a sell-off in US Treasury Bonds. And in each case inflation expectations peaked in June, leading to an intermediate-term bottom in the T-Bond market at that time. Interestingly, but not surprisingly from our perspective, this year has followed a similar pattern to date. Full Story
Knowing that soothsayers are only as good as their last call, yours truly has gathered in his tea leaves, ouija boards, horoscopes, lucky numbers, rabbits’ feet, horseshoes, lucky underwear (clean) and all other forecasting “tools” in order to “see” the future. Full Story
Despite a 40% market recovery and an abatement of the credit crisis, a climate of high fear abounds among market participants. Investor sentiment polls continue to show an excess of bears over bulls as few believe that a recovery can be sustained. Full Story
Global condemnation of the Obama Regime’s failing economic policies continues to grow. India is now questioning their investment in U.S. dollar denominated assets. That nation is the latest to join China, Russia, and Brazil in publicly worrying over the consequences of those misguided policies. BRIC has now become the most prominent activist investor group trying to either create an alternative to the U.S. dollar or force sound financial policies on the U.S. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 7 July, 2009
I was surprised that Barron’s reported that the banks show their Total Reserves fell from $896 billion to $848 billion, which is a simple math problem that seems custom-made for my abilities in that regard. Full Story
We told you last week to wait for better prices if you’re planning on buying gold bullion. That is still the case, although it looks like it may not be long before the promised bargains arrive. A week ago, with Comex August Gold trading for around 824, we projected a minimum downside target of 899; yesterday the futures settled at 924.60 after making a two-week low at 920.30. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 6 July, 2009
At last, the U.S. Congress has permitted the U.S. representative at the I.M.F. to vote to sell the 403 tonnes of gold the I.M.F. bought from Brazil and Mexico. As it is not an individual member’s gold we fully expect the members of the fund to OK its sale. The legislation will permit U.S. representatives to the I.M.F. to agree to its planned sale of 13 million ounces of gold, one-eighth of the organization's holdings. Full Story
The outlook for the precious metals sector remains bullish. We have seen several confirmation signals that the bottom is in, so it seems that this week’s price action is a consolidation during an upswing. Silver has been disappointing lately, but that is within the historical norms and should not cause worry at this point. Full Story
Every year on the Fourth of July we remember our founding fathers and the precious inheritance of freedom that they secured for us. Every year it seems we get further and further away from that birthright, but we still have much to celebrate. Full Story
Just when you think you have it figured out – bang – something changes. And present circumstances are no exception to this rule. Last week it appeared conditions were forming to sponsor a significant sell-off in stocks / equities this summer / fall, where a combination of sentiment and internals were moving into alignment in this regard. Full Story
In its June 29, 2009 issue, Business Week ran an article, by Peter Coy, entitled “Why the Fed Isn’t Igniting Inflation.” This perfectly illustrates how the paper aristocracy lies to the American people, the purpose being to steal their (meaning your) wealth. Today I want to point out the lies and the doubletalk involved in this article and why it is absolute crucial (for your own well being) that you understand what is going on. Full Story
THE PRICE OF GOLD for US investors fell 1.2% in London on Monday morning, but held flat against other major Western currencies as all markets bar government bonds fell against want one dealer called the "safe haven" Dollar. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 6 July, 2009
After having written so long about the Fed nothing should rally surprise you. The Fed, under attack by Ron Paul’s HR-1207, came out with a strong offense for a defendable defense. Being granted more financial dictatorial power it is the antithesis of what America needs. In essence America is being handed a financial dictatorship. Full Story
Make no mistake about it: in this credit collapse we are witnessing the death throes of irredeemable currency. In vain have governments and their client banks tried, for hundreds of years, to graft this repulsive and degenerate bastard on the living organism of society. The result was always the same: the healthy organism rejected the unnatural implant in its own good time. The present episode is no different from earlier ones except, perhaps, in the degree of the conceitedness of the perpetrators, and in their contempt for the native intelligence of man. Full Story
Gold is finding support at the current level but until we get some upside momentum I do not want to take a position. Silver is still under pressure but looks ready for some sideways price action at this level as it decides which way to go. Full Story
Paper supply can mimic real supply for quite some time but not forever. The price of gold and silver are set on the Comex futures exchange. The promise to deliver gold and silver in the future can easily swamp the future demand for gold and silver precisely because it is in the future. Investors cannot overpower the cartel in this quaint game of poker because the cartel always has enough fiat money to go "all in" and bluff the long investors. Full Story
America is a land of plenty unique in all the world. With out of control government and a slow motion currency crisis the future does appear ominous. As the derivative illusion of wealth evaporates there has been a return to basics with the growth of survivalism in the suburbs. Full Story
For if the markets are being set up for something resembling a second installment of last autumn’s drama then that will mean a sharp fall in the oil price – perhaps below $25 – and a rally in the US dollar. That might also be bad for the gold price but with inflation fears growing it might be a beneficiary of the flight to safe haven assets, and perform even better than last autumn as a preserver of wealth. Full Story
Taking their cue from our cautiously optimistic, if factually challenged, Fed chairman, mainstream purveyors of news have been spewing propaganda for months about a “recovery” in the second half. But do investors actually believe this poppycock? We never would have imagined so, at least not before Thursday. Full Story
The much anticipated economic recovery is now fully discounted by the financial markets. Most strategists and economists seem to agree that the US economy is stabilising and will start to revive towards the end of the year. Interestingly, the ‘great depression’ hyperbole doing the rounds last autumn has now been replaced by the ‘green shoots’ hype. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 5 July, 2009
When the words “precious metals” are spoken, gold is usually what comes to mind first. And in the universe of PM stocks it is indeed gold that most miners are after. The vast majority of PM mining companies explore for and ultimately seek to find the Ancient Metal of Kings. But gold is not the only precious metal. Full Story
The following is an excerpt from the March issue of The Morgan Report. This followed a lengthy discussion of how silver and gold both performed during inflationary and deflationary periods. Most of what I wrote was based upon the work of Roy Jastram and his work on Silver the Restless Metal and the Golden Constant. Full Story
The financial system is crashing and action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity to produce a more stable environment, Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, told CNBC Thursday. Full Story
Just a month ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was completing a bizarre run from 6,800 to 8,800, following the monster decline from 14,000 less than a year ago. Aside from the obvious “dead cat bounce” phenomenon, the market (helped, of course, by the omnipresent PPT) was aglow with dreams of “green shoots of economic recovery”, a propagandist platform created by a combination of Washington, Wall Street, and scheming media outlets such as CNBC. Full Story
SO THIS WEEK'S spike in the price of Brent crude oil to $73.50 was due to a "rogue trader". His unauthorized dealing through the PVM brokerage reportedly sparked 30 times the typical trading volume and incurred a loss of $10 million. Full Story
The rise of gold prices during the past couple of years has sparked much interest from writers, publishers, investment counselors, news sources and so forth over the prospects of further price increases in gold in the future. In general, most informed people agree that it’s going up; and many or most look for some big price increases soon because of the present economic problems and fear over the reserve status of the US dollar. Full Story
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