By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 10 April, 2015
Gold’s bottoming consolidation grind continues, with investment demand still garroted by sky-high world stock markets and the parabolic US dollar. With investors missing in action, gold prices remain totally at the mercy of American futures speculators. These perpetually-bearish traders are once again heavily short gold, which has led to sharp short-covering rallies in recent years. The latest one has just started. Full Story
In our view, you cannot know much about the future of the gold price by studying the gold price. This is a contrary view to many, who continue to pore over charts of the gold price for hints as to its future. Jewelry demand, mine production, central bank purchases and sales are also completely useless, in our view. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 10 April, 2015
In 1798 32 year-old British economist Malthus anonymously published “An Essay on the Principle of Population” and in it he argued that human population’s increase geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16 etc.) while their food supply can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4 etc.). Since food is obviously necessary for us to survive, unchecked population growth in any one area or involving the whole planet would lead to individual pockets of humanity starving or even mass worldwide starvation. Full Story
You might not be the type who needs or cares to subscribe to commercial market commentary/advice/trading/management services, but one thing we all can do is work through the freely available stuff calling itself ‘analysis’ flying around out there at warp speed and cull what is based on facts or honestly produced analytical work from the other garbage that is all too often based on ego, bias or agenda. Full Story
Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Ben S. Bernanke - 10 April, 2015
In Code Red I wrote a great deal about trade imbalances among the various European countries, which were at the heart of the European sovereign debt problem. As the peripheral countries have tried to rebalance their trade deficits with Northern Europe and especially with Germany, they have seen their relative wages fall and deflation become a problem. Greece is the poster child. Full Story
My grandparents Fushakichi and Mitsue Sagami, my father, and my nine uncles and aunts were among the 110,000 Japanese-Americans living on the Pacific coast who were locked up for almost four years in internment camps during World War II. Despite that treatment, my father was passionately patriotic about America. He’s the only man whom I’ve ever known who would stand at attention and place his hand over his heart in his own home when the national anthem was played on TV before a sporting event. Full Story
The size and existence of the modern state is limited only by the ability to borrow money; an ability dependent on the continuing value of fiat paper money. That limit has now been reached. Greece is not just a country that overindulged on the bankers’ poisoned candy of cheap credit. Greece is the canary in the coal mine of the modern state. Full Story
We’re clearly back to a world of little to no inflation. Today Japan reported its inflation rate was zero. Switzerland became the first government to sell 10-year notes at a negative interest rate on Wednesday. Yes, investors are paying the Swiss for 10-years to just hold their funds. Mexico sold 100-year notes, priced in Euros at an interest rate yield of 4.5% yield on Wednesday. Full Story
One of the best ways to gain some perspective on stock markets and gold is to look at the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI)/Gold ratio. The Dow/Gold ratio has a long history as the 200-year chart above attests to. The ratio has had considerable movement over the years, which is an accomplishment in itself since gold was until August 1971 fixed first roughly at $20.67 and then at $35 in April 1933 when the Roosevelt administration revalued gold up in order to devalue the US$. The devaluation of the US$ was a part of the currency wars of the 1930’s. Full Story
Cash was king. These days, it’s more of a headache than royalty. When it comes to larger purchases, the advantages once conferred by carrying a wad of green stuff in your wallet are all but gone. Justice Department officials in the U.S. (and officials elsewhere) are ratcheting up their decades-long war on cash. Full Story
The plan for today was to pen an article regarding silver. I believe silver to be the cheapest, most undervalued asset on the planet. From these current levels I believe any capital in silver is a no brainer. Let’s hold off on this thought until next week however, a more pressing thought has come up. Full Story
Those of you in the US know that it’s the least wonderful time of the year: tax time. Hopefully you haven’t filed your tax return just yet. Maybe you rushed it in because you feel ever so grateful to your government for letting you keep some of your hard-earned cash. Or maybe—like most of us—you wait 'til the very last day out of principle. Full Story
The world carry trade for US Dollars is over $9 trillion. In today’s world of monetary insanity, investors seem to forget that $1 trillion is a staggering amount of money. So to put that $9 trillion carry trade into perspective, if it were a country instead of a carry trade, it would be roughly equal in size to the economy of China, the second largest economy in the world. Full Story
Briefly: In our opinion, a speculative short position (half) in gold, silver and mining stocks is justified from the risk/reward point of view. Precious metals declined once again yesterday. The move was particularly visible in silver. Is the white metal telling us something? We think that it is, but the message is not that straightforward. Full Story
2015 has started brightly with gold, silver and the miners all rallying to higher ground as evidenced by the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI, gaining 50 points or approximately 30%. This sort of behavior in any sector brings out the bulls in full cry that the bottom is in and we should all hit the acquisitions trail. Alas this rally didn’t last and the miners soon started to give back the gains almost as quickly as they were made. Full Story
By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com - 8 April, 2015
Gold recovered from near fresh multi-year record lows in US-$ terms as funds shorting gold started to cover after piling onto their short holdings over the prior months. The reversal buying was triggered after fears of a near-term rate hike diminished due to ongoing weak US economic news and indications from the Fed that they will defer to later 2015, if at all. Full Story
We are again entering a collapse phase similar, yet far worse than we had in 2007-2008. I will show you a few graphs as illustration of weakness in the real economy and compare them to the financial bubbles we are living. The point to writing this piece is simple, the Fed has been saying they will raise rates. They truly need to in order to retain ANY credibility at all …just one minor problem, they cannot! Not only can the Fed not raise rates, it is my opinion the economy and in particular the markets will force them to embark in another “QE folly” shortly. I believe this will be the final shot of QE administered and may be seen by historians as “QE 4(n)evermore”. Full Story
Many gold bugs argue that governments and central banks are generally biased against gold. In some cases, like I described in my previous post, they are right. Certain countries, with India as the most notable example, have adopted hostile gold policies. In this post, I will however show that the tide has turned with many central banks not only accumulating gold but understanding the importance gold. Full Story
With metals and mining stocks frustrating so many for the last 3 years, it seems they will be frustrating folks for just a little while longer. As I have been saying for quite some time, I do not believe the bottom is in just yet. However, the market seems to be setting up long-side participants for one final shellacking, and it may be loading up the “long-train” just in time for the final plunge. Full Story
Does this mean a stock market crash is coming? Certainly not! The financial powers-that-be might prolong this rally several more months or even several years, although my take is that an extension into 2016 is unlikely. However, easy money, bond monetization, zero interest rates, negative bond yields in Europe, and fear of a deflationary collapse can work wonders to support over-extended markets, so we can’t rule out even higher prices. Full Story
For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue with our series on debt, in which I have been contrasting my views with those of Paul Krugman. Our differences aside, what Paul and I readily agree on is that the solution to our current economic dilemma is more and higher-quality growth. There is nothing like 5–7% nominal growth to tackle a problem of too much debt. Full Story
However, to get to the bottom of this, which seems to be my mission in life, we must zoom in on the Chinese gold lease market. Below I present an article written by Minsheng Banking Corp in 2014, translated by Soh Tiong Hum and BullionStar’s Sales Executive See Hong Kang. The article provides essential data on the Chinese gold lease market, for the first time we can read how total lease volume is compounded, what industry segments are leasing how much gold and in what tenors total volume is divided. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 8 April, 2015
With all the data finally out, the United States gold market suffered a massive deficit over the past three years. How large was this deficit? Actually, large enough to supply all the gold for the U.S. Mint’s production of its Gold Eagles for the past twenty years… a huge amount indeed. While the U.S. gold market enjoyed some annual surpluses in previous years, the amount of the gold that left the country since 2012 was quite remarkable. Full Story
Not yet apparently. The US jobs report release on April 3, 2015 was certainly bad news…the Establishment Survey reported 126,000 net new jobs created in March compared to a consensus expectation of 244,000. The stock market was closed that day, but on Monday, US stocks were higher across the board. Once again, the likelihood that the poor job numbers would slow down the Fed’s announced plan to raise interest rates was considered more important than evidence of a slowing economy. Full Story
By: Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst - 7 April, 2015
Traditional investment advice says an IRA is not a good place for gold. However, consider these four reasons why everyone might want gold in their retirement accounts—and get six months' free storage by starting your own gold-backed IRA. Full Story
Collectively, we American homeowners and business owners owe the banksters about $13.2 trillion in debt. This includes the $10 trillion owed by people living in single-family homes. This, in a banking system that charges 7 percent compound interest on money it pays no interest on. Since we cannot divide by zero, let's pretend the banksters are paying 1 percent to the U.S. Fed. That's a 700 percent mark-up. Full Story
The big story regarding the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was the application by the Israelis. This came just prior to the deadline and of course at the displeasure once again to Washington. Britain was the early defector followed by Germany, France and Italy. Eyebrows were raised when Saudi Arabia made their announcement but I believe what was truly missed was the application by Taiwan. Full Story
Simply put, gold stocks still suck. In fact, they suck way more than when I first wrote about this issue three years ago. That said, as a trained and experienced scientist, give me a problem and I will diligently work to provide a solution. In the case of gold stocks, I think this solution is relatively simple. Full Story
The latest US jobs report has stunned most analysts, with its dramatic weakness. Most investors in the Western gold community are nervous about rate hikes, and this report supposedly gives the average gold investor a little breathing room. I beg to differ. In the current situation, rate hikes are not bearish for gold prices. They’re bullish, and here’s why: Full Story
As economies age, debt builds up. Advanced economies – those with the highest borrowing ratings by the reputable agencies they developed – have it clogging up inside all their arteries. The Big Reset will finally become inevitable, as has been acknowledged by the IMF head Largarde, mentioning the year 2020. But what must an Armageddon debt reset necessarily involve? Few have spelled it out, not even in the famous book with the same title “The Big Reset” by Willem Middelkoop. Full Story
A rare event occurred this past week; the CFTC charged a major food company, Kraft, Inc., with price manipulation in the wheat market. You can count on one or two hands the number of times the federal commodities regulator has charged anyone with price manipulation in its 40 year history. Full Story
Every once in a while, I’ll be finger scrolling through Twitter and I’ll come across a tweet from a journalist about how oil prices are going down and airfares are going up, so something must be done. I mean, shouldn’t all businesses pass along windfall profits to their customers? Shouldn’t there be a law or something? Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 7 April, 2015
We suspect that the gold bull market that began in 2001 is, in very rough terms, an elongated version of the 1971-1980 bull market. Part of our reasoning is that there is evidence in the performance of the gold-mining sector of a bullish gold trend beginning in the early-1960s, with gold itself being unable to reflect this bullish trend until 1971 when it was officially untethered from the US$. Full Story
Ben Bernanke presided over the Federal Reserve for two terms, from 2006 through 2014. A year and half into his first term, he began driving the Federal Funds Rate down. By the end of his frantic interest episode, this key overnight lending benchmark had been crushed. It hit bottom, and it hasn’t sprung back in over 6 years since. Full Story
The Fed and other Central Banks have shifted away from focusing on growth to focusing on inflation. The explanation here is as follows: they’ve failed to create growth, debt deflation is their worst nightmare, so the best they can hope for is inflation to make debt servicing easier. However, by leaving interest rates at zero, the Fed has unleashed its worst fear: deflation… particularly deflation in consumer spending and consumer psychology… the lifeblood of the US economy. Full Story
The March employment report was a huge miss. What does it mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market? The BLS reported on Friday that payroll employment increased just by 126,000 in March, significantly below expectations for job gains of 245,000. It was the lowest monthly increase since March 2013. Employment data based on the Household Survey was even worse, with only 34,000 people found jobs in March. Full Story
We seem to have finally arrived at some sort of moment of truth regarding Greece and their inclusion in the EU. The speculation is they will be out of money by April 9th, this Thursday, unable to make a less than 500 million euro payment. Please keep in mind they have already been raiding the country’s pension plans to fund day to day services. How large of a “dent” they have already made remains to be seen but that is not the point. The point is this, any person, corporation or government who needs to dig into retirement savings for daily operations is like buying a carton of cigarettes with a credit card at 14.99% …and then carrying the balance! Full Story
We live in a time of unprecedented financial repression. As I have continued writing about this, I have become increasingly angry about the fact that central banks almost everywhere have decided to address the economic woes of the world by driving down the returns on the savings of those who can least afford it – retirees and pensioners. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 6 April, 2015
Central bank involvement may prevent the London gold market from ever becoming really transparent, the chief executive of the London Bullion Market Association has told a Bank of England study group. The LBMA chief executive, Ruth Crowell, made the assertion in a long statement dated January 30 and sent to the bank's "Fair and Effective Market Review" committee, which is studying regulation of the currency and commodity markets. The LBMA statement was found on the bank's Internet site by gold researcher and GATA consultant Ronan Manly. Full Story
If asked about ‘the rules’ of investing, Wall Street will offer endless variations, but never reveal the big one. Because to do this would point out to the legions hapless rubes (average investors) invested in the securities markets these days, that although stocks and bonds have done fabulously over the past six-years coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, still, for those who actually participated this must be looked at as good fortune more than anything else, especially considering you are ‘playing another man’s game’. Full Story
US T-Bond futures closed Friday, March 27 up nearly 12% from the February close. That was the 3rd largest monthly percent move since 1977 when my data begins and created a 3.61 standard deviation change. This is a huge move. What does it mean? The US T-Bond market peaked on March 25 at an all-time high over 165, up from about 75 in 1990. Bonds move inversely with yields, so yields have dropped to their lowest level ever. This is not surprising because central banks have been monetizing sovereign debt, buying bonds, and supporting the bond and stock markets. Full Story
Gold jumped the most in two months on Wednesday topping $1,200 an ounce. The move came on the back of a report showing U.S. employers added 189,000 jobs in March, disappointing expectations of 225,000. This was the smallest gain in employment since January 2014, helping gold to end a three-session slump. Full Story
Since the past few day I have been following news stories of people being evacuated from Yemen, in the face of internal conflict in that nation. These are real, honest, down-to-earth people just like you and me. Peaceably working, going to schools, living their lives. Businessmen, workers, office-goers, artisans, tourists... Full Story
Recently, Warren Buffett has made headlines by selling all of his shares in Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), the rest of his position in ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), and reducing his stake in National Oilwell Varco. This has people wondering if the glory days of oil investing are over. Full Story
Bob Hoye, returns from a 2 week speaking engagement in Asia / Singapore with key market insights. The US dollar has entered a new bull trend relative to most competing currencies. Millions of investors are accumulating gold and silver as portfolio insurance, as well as a defiant gesture against government profligacy. The PMs mining sector will likely present bargain opportunities, benefiting from significantly lower energy expenses. Dr. Martenson from PeakProsperity.com says central bankers and their Fed colleagues cannot print prosperity. Full Story
Greece no longer has enough money to pay the International Monetary Fund €458m coming due this Thursday nor to cover salaries and social security due on April 14th, unless the eurozone agrees to disburse the next tranche of its interim bail-out deal. Full Story
Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold exchange (SGE), which equal Chinese wholesale gold demand, in week 12 (March 23 – 27) accounted for 46 tonnes, down 14.5 % w/w. Year to date total withdrawals have reached 610 tonnes, up 9 % from 2014, up 33 % from 2013. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 5 April, 2015
We obviously reached peak soil a long time ago, soil can be considered a non-renewable and rapidly depleting resource. Given fears over the world's present ability to feed our current population - expected to pass the nine billion mark by 2050 – it’s not surprising desertification and land degradation is so absent on most people’s radar screens, soil just isn’t sexy. Full Story
The only thing that has experienced a worsening depreciation since the privately owned Federal Reserve unconstitutionally took over the Constitutionally mandated control of US money, willingly ceded by a vapidly inept Congress, has been common sense. There is none in his country, apparently none in all of Europe, and even less than those who deem themselves non-Europeans, the UKers. Full Story
I forgot exactly where and when I read it, but I recall seeing that one of the things that the Fed looks at when considering the employment situation, is a rolling 12 month average of the number of jobs created or lost. This gives them more of a smoothed indicator and tends to filter out the effects from what can often be notoriously volatile month to month readings. We traders tend to do this oftentimes with our various technical indicators in an attempt to filter out “noise”. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence - 5 April, 2015
The Spaniards of centuries past controlled the world’s elite maritime fleet. And this fleet’s colonization of the Americas is well-documented. The Spanish Crown would have told you their primary mission was to convert the indigenous people to Catholicism. But in reality it was trade and a craving for all things exotic that ultimately supported this campaign. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 5 April, 2015
Very few Americans realize just how bad the domestic energy situation will become in the next several years. While U.S. shale oil production has surged over the past five years giving Americans a false sense of energy security, the next five years will certainly destroy this myth once and for all. Full Story
It ranks at the very top of potential tax nightmares, especially if you invest internationally. This nightmare could become a reality if you happen to invest in what the IRS deems a Passive Foreign Investment Company (PFIC), which are taxed at exorbitant rates and have highly complex reporting rules. Most foreign mutual funds are PFICs, as are certain foreign stocks. Full Story
We saw a pretty choppy and frustrating week overall for stocks and markets with only very select stocks working while others didn’t work at all. We’ve had some great setups lately only to see most fail while some have worked well, but overall, it’s been a tough market and really hard for most people. Full Story
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