In the current political climate herds are running every which way. There is the anti-Trump herd, the pro-Trump herd, the liberal herd, the conservative herd, the CNBC herd, the mainstream financial services industry herd, the Armstrong herd, the gold bug herd… and there are all those ideologies in play. But robotic thinking, unless it is in service to profitable trades like this one on an excellent company providing automation (ref. recent Fanuc NFTRH+ highlight), does not pay (disclaimer: I’ve sold and taken the profit). Full Story
Many times in the past, I have talked about the "tale of two markets", in which I explain that there is a market for those on Wall Street, and then there is a market for the everyday man, woman and child. The markets are supposed to be a reflection of our state of the economy. If the markets are booming, then politicians point to this as a fact that everything is hunky dory and A-OK. Forget the fact that millions are without jobs and stagflation continues to eat away at the core of our financial systems. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 10 February, 2017
Gold stocks are on fire this year, powering higher in market-dominating performance. This is a massive reversal from their dark fourth quarter, with 6/7ths of those losses already erased. But this strong new upleg still remains young and small by historical standards. Gold stocks’ recent rally is only the vanguard of another major bull-market upleg. This sector’s bullish technicals reveal vast upside potential from here. Full Story
Central banks must be increasingly aware that critics of monetary policy are getting some traction in their arguments, that not only have monetary policies failed in their objectives, but they are creating counterproductive economic distortions as well. Chief among these is the transfer of wealth that comes with monetary debasement. Central bankers have always glossed over this issue, which if made to stick would undermine monetary policy to the extent that central banks would then have no role in the management of our affairs. Instead, they would be reduced to policing money to make sure it is always sound. Full Story
Reflation is a fact, at least for a while. And it is not limited to the U.S., as it is a truly global phenomenon – since 2016, the rebound in economic activity has been seen both in the advanced and emerging markets (this is partially due to the flattening in deep recessions in Russia and Brazil). The broad-based improvement is bad for the yellow metal, as it signals a more lasting revival. Full Story
The daily cycles in gold and the Euro have likely topped and the US Dollar bottomed. This video discusses the likely price direction of gold in the short and longer term. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 10 February, 2017
The Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) traded comfortably above its November-2014 high during December-2016 and January-2017, but in each case it failed to give a monthly close above the November-2014 close. This means that TRAN still hasn’t broken above its 2014 peak on a monthly closing basis, which represents an interesting non-confirmation of the breakouts achieved by other indices. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 February, 2017
Because of the gratuitous nastiness of yesterday’s reversal, I’ve selected a chart for today that shows a bullish pattern big enough not to have been affected by it. Indeed, in this picture, March Silver would become a speculative ‘mechanical’ buy on a pullback to the red-line pivot; and an even more enticing one if the futures were to fall all the way back to the green line 65 cents below. That would represent a decline of about 3.6%, so we needn’t be terribly concerned if sellers were to hit this vehicle hard for another day or two, driving it down by perhaps a further 40-50 cents; the move would still look merely corrective. Full Story
Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company and host discuss one analyst's call for a seemingly outlandish silver price range of $100,000-1,000,000 silver. Bix Weir makes a solid case for a 1:1:1 gold / silver / Dow ratio due to unique supply / demand conditions. Silver deposits pool near the surface, unlike gold, which is characterized by deep mineral veins that extend miles beneath the crust of the earth. Full Story
At 9:54 a.m. EST, 3,927 April gold futures contract (paper gold) was dropped on the Comex. Prior to this, the the average number of contracts per minute since the Comex had opened was under 500 contracts. This is 11.1 tonnes of paper gold which hit the Comex trading floor and electronic trading system in a 60 second window. It represents approximately 30% of the total amount of gold the Comex vault operators are reporting to be available for delivery under Comex contracts – dumped in paper form in 1 minute. Full Story
The village had survived for hundreds of years but it died not long after the dragon arrived. However the village existed a long distance away from the United States and the dragon maintenance saga happened before the world developed central banking, fiat paper money, deficit spending, ever-increasing debt, High Frequency Trading, derivatives, Quantitative Easing, PhD Keynesian economists and career politicians who manage our nations … so don’t worry … about dragon maintenance. Full Story
Where are the regulators Mr. Trump? Are you really ‘in charge’? If you are truly concerned with making America great again, you will need to do something about this situation. America’s got to take the hit before it’s possible to be great again – you need honest markets Mr. Trump – you can take that to the bank. If you don’t bring proper price discovery back to the markets, all your efforts will be for naught, because as you know, there’s no free lunch. Full Story
Over the years, I’ve written a number of articles regarding why I prefer physical gold and physical silver over bitcoin (BTC). I believe in monetary competition, however, and believe that different forms of money should be allowed to compete, because the best form will eventually and quite rapidly always rise to the top. However, we are far from such an environment, as government/banking cartels have banned the use of gold and silver as systemically-wide accepted forms of money worldwide while ensuring that their rapidly devaluing fiat currencies remain the norm. Full Story
Longtime readers of Outside the Box know that I am a fan of Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management. Lacy and his partner, Van Hoisington, produce a quarterly letter that is a must-read for me, as it reliably informs my thinking in a world drowning in conventional economics – economics that seem to continually miss the mark. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 February, 2017
The carnage continues in the U.S. major oil industry as they sink further and further in the RED. The top three U.S. oil companies, whose profits were once the envy of the energy sector, are now forced to borrow money to pay dividends or capital expenditures. The financial situation at ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips has become so dreadful, their total long-term debt surged 25% in just the past year. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 9 February, 2017
The inflation drumbeat has grown more insistent lately, stoked by Fed blather about raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Yeah, sure. I’m not buying any of it, particularly statistics that purport to show inflation even in Europe. An epic deflation still awaits and eventually will be triggered by the implosion of a largely uncollateralized, quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble. A further, irresistible catalyst will be the zeroing out of deferred, unpayable liabilities in our pension and healthcare systems. Full Story
Rogue economist, John Williams of Shadowstats.com says the US dollar rally is a fata morgana, a rate hike bluff by Fed policymakers. The 2008 market collapse / Great Recession never ended; the Treasury / Fed merely sidestepped financial calamity at an enormous cost. Ultimately, the FOMC will be coerced by market forces, resulting in lower rates and sizable balance sheets via toxic debt purchases. Full Story
The U.S. was the anchor of the Bretton Woods agreement that collapsed when former President Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. Yet even when off the remnants of the gold standard, the U.S. has continued to be the currency in which many countries hold their foreign reserves. Why is that, what are the benefits and what are the implications if this were under threat? Full Story
As the majority of the metals market seems to be awaiting a “pullback,” the metals market, like the equity market, has been quite stingy. But, as I noted in my mid-week update, “by no means am I going to say that I “expect” more of a pullback to be seen, as the minimal number of waves are in place right now to support a break out in the complex within the next few trading days.” I am still of the same perspective. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 8 February, 2017
When the paper markets finally collapse, the silver market is set up for much higher price gains than gold. Why? Because the fundamentals show that precious metals investment demand has put a great deal more pressure on the silver supply than gold… and by a long shot. There are three crucial reasons why the silver price will outperform the gold price when the highly inflated paper markets disintegrate under the weight of massive debt and derivatives. While many precious metals investors are frustrated by the ability of the Fed and Central Banks to continue to prop up the markets, the longer they postpone the day of reckoning, the worse the collapse. Full Story
With neither the CME nor the ICE gold futures contracts registering any trades as of yet (according to their websites), it will be interesting to see how this drama pans out. Will they be dud contracts, like so many gold futures contracts before them that have gone to the gold futures contracts graveyard, or will they see a pick up in activity? All eyes will also be on the LME contract from 5 June onwards. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 8 February, 2017
TLT is within a day’s rally of an important resistance, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 121.28 (see above) that is associated with a target at 124.23. If that last number were to be achieved, it would correspond to a drop in T-Bond rates to 2.83% from a current 3.02%. It is what happens after that that’s important, however, since the target is compelling enough that we should expect a tradable pullback from it. If instead the futures push past 124.23 with little effort, especially after a stall that has lasted less than three days, it would strongly imply that the felicitous trend in long-term rates is likely to continue. Full Story
I have a great number of friends that pride themselves on being "technical analysts" and many of them are actually very good, especially the ones that are students of market history and even more so the ones that are "old" and by that, I mean "older than me." I love the guys that can tell you what happened in the fall of 1987 and recite off the top of their head that intraday high and intraday low of Tuesday October 20, 1987, when the Dow Jones had its first 500-point intraday swing, especially when they can tell you what they had for lunch that day. Full Story
This year marks USAGOLD's 20th year on the World Wide Web, and this newsletter has been part and parcel of our online presence from day one. In fact, we published this newsletter in hard-copy form long before the internet came along. So it is that we took the occasion to rummage around News and Views' creaky attic and dust-off the group of golden vignettes you see immediately below. Full Story
Yet another “unmassaged” data point has shown that the US economy is rolling over. If you’ve been reading me for a while you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is the fact that headline US economic data (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc.) is massaged to the point of being fiction. For this reason, in order to get a real read on the economy, you have to look for economic metrics that are unpopular enough that the beancounters don’t bother adjusting them. Full Story
The usual thrust of this letter is economics, finance, and investing. Lately, however, the political process has been invading my normal domain – sometimes to the dismay of some of my readers. I get that politics comes with the territory; and I think everyone, no matter their political persuasion, will agree that taxes, which are political in nature, have a major impact on economics, finance, and investment. And thus commenting on taxes is fair game. Full Story
US dollar bulls will likely be hit hard by Donald Trump’s dollar devaluation team. Governments around the world may be poised to enter not just a fiat devaluation competition, but a money printing competition. There are no winners in such a competition, except for gold, silver, and associated stocks! Full Story
That didn’t take long. After little more than two weeks, President Donald Trump’s honeymoon with Wall Street appears to have been put on hold—for the moment, at least—with major indices making only tepid moves since his January 20 inauguration. That includes the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which surged in the days following Election Day on hopes that Trump’s pledge to roll back regulations and lower corporate taxes would benefit domestic small businesses the most. Full Story
Just like I predicted many many people are getting schooled. In a bull market all long trades will ultimately get rescued no matter how badly timed the entry. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 7 February, 2017
It’s late Monday night and April Gold has stolen up on the 1237.70 ‘external’ peak (see inset) that I wrote here yesterday was crucial to the short- to intermediate-term picture. The so-far high tonight has precisely tied the peak, but it would be hard to imagine the futures coming this far without mustering the tiny push it would take to get past it. That would refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart, shifting our attention to election night’s watershed peak at 1343.90. First things first, though: Assuming buyers can get past the 1238.80 ‘secondary pivot’ of the pattern shown, a two-day close above it would put the 1257.10 target solidly in play over the near term. Full Story
In my opinion, gold is the only real money. Thus it is my safe haven of choice and insurance policy against financial calamity. Platinum functions both as a precious and industrial metal. It is usually tied to the price of gold in both short- and long-term trading patterns. In times of financial distress and economic turmoil, platinum tends to behave more like gold with widespread hoarding. Full Story
One of the biggest contributors to losses for traders in the financial market is the temptation to sell short. Borrowing shares of a company that are not owned by the seller in the hopes of making a massive profit has shipwrecked more traders than probably any other factor. With stories abounding of the quick and easy profits to be made in selling stocks which are supposedly on the verge of plummeting, it’s no wonder that the allure of “shorting” is so irresistible to so many. Full Story
Not long now. Not long to month end. Not long until we see what the (fake?) January Barometer signal tells us to expect this year. There’s only one problem – this signal has been rendered redundant by speculator betting practices and the machines. Case in point – last year. Last year stocks were hammered in January. But how did stocks end the year? Answer: Higher – much higher. They were higher not because of ‘fundamentals’. Full Story
This is the 3rd piece on gold that highlights how unloved gold remains today. Considering the 2016 rally in gold and the turbulent times we now find ourselves in, to be honest I’m rather surprised there are not significantly more gold traders all over this market. Part 1 and Part 2 cover the initial stages of this rally from the December lows. Below is an excerpt from the Financial Tap Member weekly weekend report. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, followed by silver, with a 2.03 percent gain. Nearly $1.6 billion went into the 10 precious metal-backed ETFs that have attracted the most money in January, reports Bloomberg. Frankfurt-listed Xetra-Gold drew in more than any other commodity ETF. Full Story
It is comforting to know that we now live in an “alternative universe” with “alternative facts” and that not only will “America be great again” but America will also be “safe again.” So we guess that is why the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) passed a milestone, surpassing 20,000 even as valuations are at or near some of the highest levels ever and margin debt is almost at a record. The elation hasn’t lasted long, however; the bloom suddenly began take on a tired look and then wilted under pressure of the White House administration’s ban on immigration from certain Mid-East countries. Full Story
This week, the prices of the metals went up, with the gold price rising every day and the silver price stalling out after rising 42 cents on Tuesday. The gold-silver ratio went up a bit this week, an unusual occurrence when the prices are rising. Everyone knows that the price of silver is supposed to outperform—the way Pavlov’s Dogs know that food comes after the bell. Speculators usually make it so. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 6 February, 2017
In a blog post last Friday I provided evidence that the extent to which a US president is “pro-business” has very little to do with the stock market’s performance during that president’s term in office. Regardless of whether the associated policies are good or bad for the economy, the key to the stock market’s performance over the course of a presidency is the market’s position in its long-term valuation cycle. Full Story
Jim Rogers rejoins the show from his Singapore office with his latest market commentary. The crude oil market appears to be building a bottom - he expects the low to emerge this year representing a buying opportunity. Jim Rogers finds value opportunities in the base metals and other commodities sectors. While the US equities markets rally is impressive, our guest points to financial history, noting that 3 rate hikes spells trouble for equities. Charles Hughes Smith from the Of Two Minds blog returns with commentary on the US economy / financial markets. US corporate buybacks data indicates that near zero interest rates has enabled thousands of firms to issue debt at low rates used to support share prices. Full Story
Running PeakProsperity.com requires me to read and process a lot of data on a daily basis. As it's hard to digest it all in real-time, I keep a running list of charts, tables and articles that catch my attention, to return to when I have the time to give them my full focus. Lately, that list has been getting quite long. And it's largely full of indicators that concern me; signals that the long era of "extend and pretend" in today's markets may finally be at its terminus. Full Story
The US dollar has now closed lower for 6 weeks in a row which is testing the patience of the bulls. This week the price action cracked the top rail of the horizontal trading range which is a negative, but not confirmation yet the trend has reversed down. There are several more layers of support that will need to be hit before I throw up the white flag and surrender to the bears. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 5 February, 2017
The global markets were humming right along until a large cracked appeared in 2015. This big crack in the global economy seemed to go unnoticed, however the implications are quite serious if the trend continues. Actually, I had no idea how significant this development was until I compared the data to what took place during the financial and economic crash in 2008-2009. Full Story
Week two of Trump. Same as the first week. Confusion and volatility. Courts overturned, at least temporarily, the ban from seven Muslim countries. And apparently even the White House’s appeal to have the ban restored has failed. Sabre rattling was predominant first with an attack on Yemen, a country the US is supposedly not at war with but well known they are backing Saudi Arabia and Egypt in fighting the Houthi rebels who are supposedly backed by Iran as the country is engulfed in a civil war; and, further sabre rattling directed against Iran and North Korea. Full Story
A great week for stocks and you can find out a bit more on my thoughts about that at my free blog and I’m sure you’ll enjoy my short thoughts. The metals continue to show some mixed strength, and weakness, but the week ahead should tell us if a low is in fact in, or if more basing is needed. Full Story
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