As I’ve been noting again, again, again, again, and again the macro backdrop is marching toward changes. I’d originally thought those changes would come about within the Q4 window and while that may still be the case, it can easily extend into the first half of 2018 based on new information and data points that have come in. Full Story
Bubbles, like markets, tend to run through three distinct phases. The first is the initial move, driven by participants in the know, or by those close to the promotors that initiate a scheme. Sensible, experienced investors become aware early on that prices of a new venture, financial instrument or even a physical item are being inflated, irrationally they believe, so they do not participate. The wider public is generally unaware at this juncture, and many of those that might have taken an early punt will have fallen foul of sharp corrections, counterparty failure, or outright fraud. Consequently, prices are driven in the main by insiders, the earliest adopters, the creators of the new opportunity to make money. Full Story
Gold futures dropped suddenly, losing almost 1 percent of their value in about 15 minutes. Trading volume also picked up during the selling activity. Gold futures for December delivery were down 0.9 percent as of 11:52 am in New York after stabilizing following the sudden decline. It was not immediately clear what caused the drop. Full Story
Gold has largely been drifting sideways for the better part of a couple months now, sapping enthusiasm. Gold investment demand has stalled due to extreme stock-market euphoria. Investors aren’t interested in alternative investments led by gold when stocks seemingly do nothing but rally indefinitely. But once stock-market volatility inevitably returns, so will gold investment demand which fuels major gold uplegs. Full Story
When you write about economics, you learn very quickly that the economy doesn’t care what you say about it. The forces that drive it are beyond any one person’s comprehension, much less control. But at the same time, the economy doesn’t work like a law of nature. Unlike gravity, for instance, the economy responds to human choices and preferences. We influence it, even if we don’t understand exactly how. Full Story
John Scurci, head of Corona Associates Capital Management, outlines his analysis of the cryptocurrency phenomenon. "Blockchain is here to stay and is truly innovative... only 4% of BTC owners control 90% of the market cap." Merely 21 million BTC will ever exist, millions have evaporated or were lost on discarded hard drives, lost pass codes and "dust." 100% of all BTC will be mined by 2040. Full Story
You are undoubtedly aware of one or another stock market anomaly, such as e.g. the frequent weakness in stock markets in the summer months, which the well-known saying “sell in May and go away” refers to. Apart from such widely known anomalies, there are many others though, which most investors have never heard of. These anomalies can be particularly interesting and profitable for investors – and there are several in the precious metals sector as well. Today I am going to introduce one of those to you. Full Story
As I have noted for the last several weeks, silver really seems to be the more telling of the metals charts. I have been following a potential count which suggests that a (c) wave rally within a b-wave of wave ii is taking shape. And, I have noted that as long as we hold over the 16.40-16.50 support region, we can rally back up towards the September highs. Full Story
We think this could be a really big turning point in the uranium market. Cameco’s suspension of production, the latest in a long line of production cuts at high cost operations, brings the total volume of uranium removed from the market in 2018 to 17 million pounds, about 12% of primary mine supply. This in turn will mean the oversupply of uranium is being brought sharply back into balance. Full Story
A longstanding curiosity in the investment business has been the disinterest in precious metals among institutional investors. Whether from the handful of consultants now leading the institutional space, or directly from the stewards of our nation’s pension, endowment, and family-office wealth, skepticism over gold’s portfolio relevance remains fairly pervasive. Because investment professionals are generally well informed, competing in an industry in which performance is king, one would assume any asset class deserving of rightful consideration would enjoy a fair hearing. Full Story
Given the meeting with a known mercantilist, Le Gendre probably intended his comment in a restrictive sense, meaning he was refusing the state’s offer of protection from foreign competition. In later years others have expanded “laissez-faire” to mean the state should be restricted to “upholding the rights of private property and individual liberty.” In Human Action, Mises defined a laissez-faire economy as one unhampered by state interference; it means upholding “the individuals' discretion to choose and to act.” [Mises, The Meaning of Laissez Faire, excerpted from Human Action] Full Story
As the U.S. dollar continues to lose its status as the world’s premiere reserve currency, the reality of a world war seems inevitable, especially when major countries such as China, Russia and Iran are making strategic moves to bypass the U.S. dollar in favor of other currencies such as China’s ‘Petro-Yuan’. China has made the decision to price oil in their own currency the “Yuan” by a new gold-backed futures contract which will change the dynamics of the world’s economy. China is preparing to launch the petro-Yuan later this year that will eventually threaten the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.” Full Story
Recently I identified five agents of change that I believe investors should know about right now. I’d like to add one more to the list: Mohammad bin Salman. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, 32, was little known outside the region before this past weekend when he jailed members of the royal family, presumably in an attempt to consolidate power ahead of taking the throne. Resembling a plotline from an episode of “Game of Thrones,” the mass detentions signal a seismic change in Saudi leadership—which, in turn, is putting upward pressure on global oil prices. Full Story
For almost a year now the PM stock indexes have been building out a triangle trading range that has yet to be determined if it is going to be a consolidation pattern or a reversal pattern. With big patterns one can lose sight of what is really there, as the longer a trading range develops the more trendlines one puts on a chart, and the more confusing things become. Full Story
Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente shares the hosts' enthusiasm for Bitcoin and related Altcoins. The blockchain revolution presents a key portfolio candidate for investors with a long-term focus. He outlines his personal Altcoin portfolio. Cryptocoins could be viewed as a safe harbor asset amid economic / financial turmoil, similar to the PMs. Full Story
The Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) has been around since the time of Copernicus (the 1500s). In its original and most basic form it held that the general price level would change in direct proportion to the change in the supply of money, but to get around the problem that what was observed didn’t match this theory it was subsequently ‘enhanced’ by adding a fudge factor called “velocity”. From then on, rather than being solely a function of the money supply it was held that the general price level was determined by the money supply multiplied by the velocity of money in accordance with the famous Equation of Exchange (M*V = P*Q)**. Full Story
After a severe selloff, precious metals have enjoyed a bit of a respite. Corrections are a function of time and/or price. The correction to the recent selloff has been more in time than price. Metals and miners have stabilized over the past nine trading days but have not rebounded much in price terms. Gold has barely rallied $20/oz while GDX and GDXJ have rebounded less than 4% and 5% respectively. In addition to the weakness of this rally, the gold stocks are sporting a negative divergence and that does not bode well for an end of the year rally. Full Story
While it is widely believed that commodities are one of the few "undervalued" sectors, sustained rallies have been hard to find over the past few years. Could all that be finally beginning to change? The key to any commodity rally is weakness in the US dollar. Most commodities trade in dollar terms so a rising dollar generally puts pressure on the sector. In contrast, a falling dollar is usually good for the sector. Full Story
JP Morgan, at least according to the daily Comex warehouse report, added over half a million ozs of silver to its “historic” stash of silver at the Comex: TF Metals Report. It would be even more interesting to see an actual independent accounting of that specific metal which would track the serial numbers on the bars to the legal owner of title. Full Story
As the big top involves the imminent Bitcoin Hard Fork, SegWit2X (B2X). B2X is a new blockchain that will fork or split away from BTC around Nov. 14-16. The brainchild of Jeff Garzik, currently the lone B2X developer. B2X stands for segregated witness, a proposed upgrade to the BTC blockchain that doubles or 2x's the block size. While B2X is a monumental task and potentially beneficial, the event is not without detractors, including Roger Ver. Full Story
Wealth doesn’t come from the creation of money, especially a fiat system. With too much fiat money and all this credit, eventually the economy becomes exhausted and engulfed with debt and mal-investments. The treatment for this is a correction; you have to allow the debt to be liquidated. You have to get rid of the mal-investment and you have and to allow real economic growth to start all over again. Full Story
If you’ve made a profit from bitcoin and other cryptos, congratulations! You’re obviously a smart investor who spotted a trend early on and was able to profit. Hats off to you. But now it’s time to take some profits… right? If you were smart enough to buy in early, you’re smart enough to know that it’s not a profit until you take it. And that asset prices don’t rise forever, no matter how revolutionary the technology. Full Story
In his latest video, Mike Maloney ponders the questions 'Could Bitcoin hit $50,000 in the next couple of months?' and also, 'Is Bitcoin in a bubble and could it crash?' You may be surprised to hear how Mike answered these questions and the action he has taken accordingly. Full Story
For several years I’ve recommended that the gold community slightly reduce (but not drop) their focus on gold’s Western world fear trade and increase their focus on the Eastern stock markets and the love trade for gold. South Korea’s stock market sports 50% earnings growth and a P/E ratio of just 10! Japan’s market is also red hot, and so are the markets of China and India. Full Story
The Trump Rally pushed ahead relentlessly through a summer full of high omens and great disasters, all which it swatted off like flies. Even so, all was not perfect in the market as nerves began to jitter midsummer beneath the surface even among the most longtime bulls. Wall Street’s fear gauge (the CBOE Volatility Index) lifted its needle off its lower post to a nine-month high after President Trump’s comments about “fire and fury” if North Korea didn’t toe the line. Full Story
Last Thursday, congressional Republicans unveiled their tax reform legislation. On the same day, President Trump nominated current Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell to succeed Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chair. While the tax plan dominated the headlines, the Powell appointment will have much greater long-term impact. Federal Reserve policies affect every aspect of the economy, including whether the Republican tax plan will produce long-term economic growth. Full Story
In surging, gold blurted out the Deep State Central Planners’ strategy for dealing with the Great Financial Crisis: the hyperinflation of bond, equities and real estate prices via the hyperinflation of both official and totally clandestine, off-the-books money supply, in order to create the hyperinflation of tax revenues desperately required by the government to forestall its fiscal collapse. Gold’s exposure of the Deep State Central Planners’ secret strategy was absolutely unacceptable to them, and had to be stopped. Full Story
Investors need to be concerned that the U.S. Stock Market is well beyond bubble territory as it has now entered into the final stage of a Super-Charged Tulip Mania. Not only are stock prices inflated well above anything we have ever seen before, but valuations are also reaching heights that are totally unsustainable. Unfortunately, these highly inflated share prices and insane valuations seem normal to investors who are suffering from brain damage as years of mainstream propaganda have turned the soft tissue in their skulls to mush. Full Story
My original thought was to write further about the left turning on and eating each other. The volume of news, “who” and the timing seemed to indicate something very big coming down. However, another story broke out of the blue this morning from Saudi Arabia that supersedes (though very well may have connections to) the feeding frenzy. Full Story
The world is changing fast right now in ways that many investors might not easily recognize or want to admit. This could end up being a costly mistake. If you’re not paying attention, you could be letting opportunities pass you by without even realizing it. With that in mind, I’ve put together a list of five agents of change that I think investors need to be aware of and possibly factor into their decision-making process. Full Story
Most of technical analysis that one can read about gold and gold stocks is based on these markets alone. This is quite strange given the multitude of intermarket relationships, but still that’s the case. While it is true that looking at the performance of a given market is the most important thing that one can do when estimating the future performance of a given asset, it doesn’t mean that it’s all there is to it. Full Story
Something truly massive happened in early 2017. That “something” was the market shifted from deflation towards an inflationary outlook. If you don’t believe me, you can see for yourself. Inflation expectations broke out of a multi-year downtrend. Not only that, but they have since continued higher, bouncing of support. Investing in the markets is like playing poker, and this was a massive “tell” that the market had changed. Full Story
The general markets continue to power higher with momentum firmly intact. If you are playing this sector you are making money, but be careful as numerous signs point to a top within 2-4 months. Meanwhile the PM sector is getting beaten up, but therein may lie the opportunity of a lifetime, especially now that we know the new FED chair is just another Brainless Keynesian who thinks there will never be any repercussions to endless money printing. Perhaps it’s time to take our eye off of the shiny object and buy what is real value, the precious and the electric metals. Full Story
And at the current rate it might not be too long before it’s actually there. The moon, that is. No, not Alice—Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin crossed $7,000 this week. It was less than a month ago Bitcoin passed $5,000. The riches are dazzling as Bitcoin is up 640% this year alone. Bitcoin now has a market cap of $100 billion. How much longer before it’s bigger than Amazon or Apple or worth more than the entire gold stock market? But the question continues to beg—is Bitcoin an historic bubble? Until it bursts, the question is strictly academic. And don’t forget, not only is there Bitcoin but there are now over 1,000 other cryptocurrencies. And Bitcoin has forks as well called Bitcoin cash and Bitcoin gold. Full Story
It has almost gotten to the point that people now expect the stock market to rally after a terrorist attack. Have we really become this warped in our thinking? Must we hold fast to ridiculous notions that news is what drives the stock market to the point that we have to resign ourselves to believing that the market will rally “because” of a terrorist attack? Do you not see how ridiculous these perspectives really are? Full Story
Physicists say that the universe is expanding. However, they hotly debate (OK, pun intended as a foreshadowing device) if the rate of expansion is sufficient to overcome gravity—called escape velocity. It may seem like an arcane topic, but the consequences are dire either way. If the rate of expansion is too low, then it will get slower and slower until expansion stops entirely, then finally, begin collapsing again in a Big Crunch. That’s bad enough. Full Story
Top Wall Street Chartered Technical Analyst (CTA), Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management, revered as "The Godfather of Technical Analysis," returns. For 20 years, Bill Murphy and Chris Powell of GATA.org have lead the crusade for transparency with the gold cartel. A few months earlier, Bitcoin enthusiasts were stunned / elated to find the digital currency was at parity, with gold $1,250. Full Story
Financial bubbles are the office Christmas parties of the investment world. They start slowly, with a certain amount of anxiety. But they end wildly, with acts and decisions that in retrospect seem really, really stupid. Millions of people out there still bear the psychic scars of buying gold at $800/oz in 1980 or a tech stock at 1,000 times earnings in 1999 or a Miami condo for $1,000 per square foot in 2006. Full Story
After three and half decades the global economy has now entered a three and half year period of slow rotational change which will likely be seen in future years as the "Great Reversal". We are leaving an era which as witnessed unprecedented global debt growth, work force demographics and the emergence of profoundly disruptive technologies. These trends through globalization, labor arbitrage, and oversupply have coupled to deliver slow inflation, disinflation and even deflation in various areas of the world. Full Story
As I do the actual work of plowing through NFTRH 472 I am noting some non-bond related indicators in line with the fading Junk/Quality ratios and easing Treasury yields noted in this post. If preliminary hints in these indicators intensify and long-term yield breakouts fail, we may get a market reaction of some kind and lurch to risk ‘off’ sooner rather than later. Most market charts remain straight up bullish. But charts are charts and indicators are a whole other animal. Full Story
Anyone familiar with the former London gold and silver fix auctions, or the successor LBMA Gold Price and LBMA Silver Price auctions, will know that the LBMA gold auction is conducted twice daily at 10:30 am and 3.00 pm London time, while the silver auction is held once daily at midday. These auctions are also for unallocated book entry gold and silver (paper gold and silver) in the London market. ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) is the auction administrator for both of these LBMA auctions. Full Story
In the last Oil Market update posted on Oct. 23, we observed oil's intrinsic strength, and how it looked like it was building up to break out of its giant, complex, Head-and-Shoulders bottom. We were wary of its reacting back short-term on dollar strength, but that has not happened. Instead, it has continued to firm up. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on major buy signal. The cycle is down, as consolidation continues. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
This is pleasant reading for anyone long gold or gold mining shares. But the futures markets continue to tell a different and less encouraging story. See Strange Things Happening In The Paper Gold Market, which noted that last month speculators were overly long and were as a result losing their shirts in the ongoing price correction — but were for some reason refusing to throw in the towel. The conclusion was that they’d need more convincing via another big price decline. Full Story
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