Gold closed last week below $1200 for the first time but has since rebounded from support at $1180. Silver has also rebounded but only after declining in 11 of the past 12 weeks. Precious Metals endured a very rough September and became very oversold. With Gold near its daily low and the gold miners (HUI, GDX) near their December lows, a rebound was probable. Precious metals bulls need to stay patient and disciplined as we believe this is an oversold bounce in a sharp downtrend until proven otherwise. Full Story
The United States of America is not what it used to be. Unsustainable mountains of debt, continuous meddling by the government and Fed to “stimulate the economy,” and the US dollar’s dwindling status as the world’s reserve currency are very real threats to Americans’ standard of living. Here are some opinions from the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit on the state of the state and how to fix it. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 10 October, 2014
The US dollar has relentlessly blasted higher in recent months, achieving its longest consecutive-week rally in history. Speculators have flooded into the world’s reserve currency for a variety of reasons, ranging from Federal Reserve rate-hike hopes to festering Eurozone worries. But the resulting massive dollar surge has left it super-overbought while breeding universal bullishness, the precursors to a sharp selloff. Full Story
When considering investing in Essential Resources it is important to determine not only which of these have relatively inelastic Demand but also those which have Relatively inelastic Supply. Now is a time of Great Opportunity for Investing in certain (but not all!) Key Resources, because certain Key Resources are NOW available at Bargain Basement Prices. Full Story
Throughout most of 2014, economists were convinced that the threat of deflation had been successfully bypassed thanks to Fed intervention. Indeed, many celebrated economic forecasters have been loudly cheering the mostly solid-looking economic data throughout most of this year. But as Yogi Berra once said, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” Full Story
"There are some ideas so wrong that only a very intelligent person could believe in them." -George Orwell In a recent widely distributed associated press article, Bond Market Bubble is Looking Fragile, Bernard Cohen correctly (remarkably) identifies the financial bottleneck threatening to once again freeze credit markets a la The Lehman Crisis. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 10 October, 2014
After the recent price smash in silver, investors purchased a record amount of Silver Eagles. In the first eight days of October, the U.S. Mint sold a great deal more Silver Eagles than it did during the same time period in all the months throughout the year. Full Story
Recent evidence points increasingly towards global economic contraction. Parts of the Eurozone are in great difficulty, and only last weekend S&P the rating agency warned that Greece will default on its debts "at some point in the next fifteen months". Japan is collapsing under the wealth-destruction of Abenomics. China is juggling with a debt bubble that threatens to implode. The US tells us through government statistics that their outlook is promising, but the reality is very different with one-third of employable adults not working; furthermore the GDP deflator is significantly greater than officially admitted. And the UK is financially over-geared and over-dependent on a failing Eurozone. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 9 October, 2014
On 19th May 2014, the European Central Bank and 20 other European central banks announced the signing of the fourth Central Bank Gold Agreement. This agreement, which applies as of 27 September 2014, will last for five years and the signatories have stated that they currently do not have any plans to sell significant amounts of gold. Full Story
Wednesday, October 8, 2014, looked like another bash down of the already battered precious metals sector, before a dramatic price reversal on massive record volume. Is it “the bottom”? Well, a price reversal on record volume is certainly what a “bottom” is supposed to look like from a technical standpoint. Not only that – but gold has now constructed a bullish “triple bottom” reversal pattern, by printing three sequentially “higher lows”. Full Story
It has not been easy being a believer in gold over the past two years. Gold is down about 37% from its 2011 top. The biggest portion of the drop took place over two days in April 2013 when gold plunged roughly $200 from $1,564 to $1,360 when someone dumped 400 to 500 tonnes of paper gold (futures) all at once on the COMEX. The collapse triggered an avalanche of stop loss or stop sell orders adding to the downward plunge. Percentage wise it was 13%. To put this in perspective the percentage drop was not as large as the 18% drop that was seen on January 22, 1980 when gold plunged from $825 to $682 as the 1976-1980 gold bull abruptly ended. Full Story
What is it that will actually determine: 1) how our retirement investments will perform, 2) at what age we will be able to retire, and 3) what our standard of living in retirement will be? For the usual answers, we've been taught to turn to the assumptions of conventional financial planning. But there's a problem with doing so, which is that the path that the economy and investments have actually taken over the last decade and more doesn't seem to have been anticipated in the usual assumptions. Full Story
Fifty years ago we were bombing North Vietnam “back into the stone age.” That worked out well for the military contractors but accomplished little for the US people. Twenty years ago we were fighting Iraq and Saddam Hussein. That worked out well for the military contractors but accomplished little for the US people. Full Story
Today’s forecast: yield-starved investors forced into the market by seemingly permanent low interest rates will continue to be collateral damage. For some, that collateral damage may involve more than the loss of income opportunities… many could be wiped out completely. Full Story
The stock market is no longer cheap. The single best predictor of stock market performance is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio or CAPE ratio. Most investors price a company based on its current Price to Earnings or P/E ratio. Essentially what you’re doing is comparing the price of the company today to its ability to produce earnings (cash). Full Story
To make sense of the markets, it may be ever more important to dissect what we may call convincingly irrational behavior by policy makers. To make sense of stocks, bonds and currencies, you might need to discern some of the madness that’s unfolding in front of our eyes. We assume no responsibility if you turn mad yourself in reading this analysis. Full Story
Below is a letter I plan to send to each producing mining company and precious metals mutual fund that I own personally. Gold and silver prices have been diluted by paper contracts to the point where no money can be made producing gold and an industry loss producing silver. Years ago, Rob McEwen of Goldcorp decided to withhold the sale of gold production to be held in their treasury until prices were higher. THIS is exactly what needs to be done now as a counterbalance to the unbacked paper contracts being sold to depress prices. Full Story
The title’s quote is one of many eminently quotable messages I had the pleasure of receiving over a few years of contact with a late, great and a very interesting man* named Jonathan Auerbach, who headed a unique specialty (emerging and frontier markets) brokerage in NYC called Auerbach Grayson. Full Story
Switzerland is holding a referendum on gold on November 30th that could transform the outlook for gold prices. If it passes it will mandate the central bank to hold a minimum of 20 per cent of foreign reserves in gold against 7.7 per cent today, stop its gold sales and repatriate all Swiss-owned gold. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 October, 2014
The Banker Cartel has a method to their madness in manipulating the precious metals and commodity markets. Let’s just say, the value of some commodities are controlled to move one direction while others, in another. This can clearly be seen when we compare gold & silver versus oil markets. Full Story
My good friend Barry Ritholtz, famous for launching The Big Picture blog (and since graduating to being a regular Bloomberg columnist as well as writing a weekly column for the Washington Post), is well-known for being a contrarian. Barry is a regular dinner partner when I get to New York, and he also participates in the annual Maine fishing trip. We frequently trade information … and barbs. The word colorful affectionately comes to mind when I think of Barry (and maybe opinionated would work). Full Story
Manipulation and apathy can't keep silver prices down forever; there is too much demand and too much money sitting on the sidelines. In this interview with The Gold Report, Silver-Investor.com Editor David Morgan tells us why he is grateful for his balanced approach to investing and life. Full Story
We have documented the history if individual metals before and we have also visualized their annual production. However, we have not seen all of the metals on one timeline before such as in this infographic. Worth noting is gold’s prominence ever since the beginning of history. Because the yellow metal is one of the rare elements that can be found in native form (such as nuggets), it was used by the earliest of our ancestors. Full Story
Years of a severe downturn in the gold market have left very few bulls to speak out in favor of the yellow metal. Here are some positive opinions on the future of the precious metal, from the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit. Full Story
First off, if you have an interest in the price of gold and have not already done so, I highly recommend you check out Steve Hochberg’s 2-part Elliott Wave video presentation on gold (disclosure: free sign up to Club EWI brings a small commission to yours truly ). With all his zigs, zags, waves and patterns he ends up at the same place I do with my simple version. I may use less cluttered methods, but I find this stuff very interesting. Full Story
Last week, an FDA committee voted 20 to 1 to make it more difficult for doctors to prescribe testosterone products. The committee also recommended that pharmaceutical companies selling testosterone products be forced to perform additional safety tests, based mostly on a few studies indicating that patients with heart problems are more likely to experience cardiac events when they start using testosterone. Full Story
The dollar has broken higher and over the 80 level by 7-8% recently versus foreign currencies. Is "King Dollar" back and what would it mean if it was? First off, I do not believe King Dollar is anything more than a "less dirty shirt" in a pile of dirty clothes meaning the U.S. economy right now is not as bad ("reportedly") as either Europe or Japan. Notice I included the phrase "right now", the U.S. is just as upside down and broke as either Europe or Japan and of course on a much grander scale. Please keep the term "broke is broke" in the back of your mind as this is the case for all of the West's financial system. Full Story
Gold tested the closing price level of 2013 this week and has subsequently seen a nice bounce off the 1183 price level. Whether this rally is anything more than a simple bounce remains to be seen, but what is important is that prices are running contra seasonal and that my analysis for a return to the close of 2013 has proven accurate. I’ll offer my thoughts... Full Story
In part I, Phase III-Dead Ahead, we established the macro case for the final phase of the gold stock bear market. As the bear market progresses the economies key constraint remains the level of debt, specifically the size and composition of the national balance sheet which has baked in the cake a deflationary outcome. It is this wave of deflation that will drive the final phase of this bear market to unimagined lows. Full Story
JM Bullion is an online retailer that supplies individual investors with physical gold and silver products at the lowest prices possible. We deal strictly in physical metals intended for delivery directly to the customer – we do not hold metal on “account” or offer “paper” metal investments, as we believe the only way to truly own precious metals is to hold them in your possession. Full Story
Cordoba Minerals Corp. is a mineral exploration company focused on the exploration and acquisition of copper and gold projects in Colombia. Cordoba currently owns 100% of the highly prospective San Matias Project located on the northern extension of the prolific and richly endowed Mid Cauca Gold Belt. Full Story
Angkor Gold Corp is engaged in the exploration of its mineral property interests which is located in the Kingdom of Cambodia in the Banlung and Oyadao Regions. Full Story
Internet auctioneer and retailer eBay announced last week that it will be spinning off its online payment service PayPal into two listed companies. This decision, heralded by activist shareholder Carl Icahn, among other investors, will allegedly enable both companies to focus exclusively on what they do best. Full Story
David Franklin, Co-Founder & Managing Director, WoodsWater Capital LP follows up with Vanessa from a previous interview to speak about global currencies, gold, QE's, stimulus packages and more global economics. Full Story
I never understood why Sears bought Kmart. Sears was a giant retailer, the dominant tenant in shopping malls throughout the US. Kmart was the spawn of S. S. Kresge’s dime stores. They served different consumer groups—different strata. When they came together, they combined a lot of the same merchandise in their stores, and they both lost their identities. I don’t see either surviving much longer. Full Story
I sat down with Jim Rickards, author of many best-selling economics and investing books, including his latest, titled The Death of Money. In this exclusive interview, Jim shares his view on the changes in US foreign policy—the newly announced partnership with Iran to help fight ISIS and recent moves away from the petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia—and what they mean for the dollar, gold, and investment markets in general. Full Story
Silver closed last week under $17 for the first time in 4 years. Maybe we have in store another "event" like 2008, 2011 or 2013 where the "price" gets forced down which explodes demand to a point where shortages again show up? I have written several times before how a shortage should never ever show up in any real market if prices crash because of "selling". If real silver were in fact being sold then the market would be awash in silver and no shortage could exist. ...The last 3 episodes there were severe shortages which is your proof that it was not in fact real metal being sold, only paper contracts representing metal, this logic is not arguable. Full Story
The US national debt in 1989 was about $2.8 Trillion. Twenty Five years later, in 2014, that debt had increased by a factor of about 6.3 to $17.8 Trillion. For many decades the US piled on more debt, increased the currency in circulation much more rapidly than the economy grew, and of course, caused consumer prices to increase substantially. Naturally the S&P 500 Index increased, as did the price of gold, since each dollar was worth less. Full Story
Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. The precious metals market finally rallied yesterday. Gold moved lower in the first hours of the session, getting very close to the Dec. 2013 low, but it rallied before the session was over, finally closing over $16 higher. Is the final bottom in? Full Story
Every market has its favorite speculative asset and for the past few years the electronic funny money Bitcoin has ruled this roost. Yesterday Bitcoin rebounded from a 20 per cent sell-off over the weekend. But year-to-date speculators in this novel specie have lost 40 per cent of their money in dollar terms. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 7 October, 2014
As long as a market is in a strong rising trend almost any bullish argument could appear to have a ring of truth about it, even a completely baseless one. A case in point is the deluge of baseless, bullish-slanted US$ analyses prompted by the strong rise of the past few months in the Dollar Index. Full Story
Gold-bearish Western bank economists are very lucky. They can gleefully ignore Indian black market imports in their assessment of demand and supply, and nobody questions them. Thus, a tiny outflow of gold from Western ETFs in September is relentlessly highlighted as a harbinger of gold price doom, while recent reports that India is importing more than 15 tons a week in the black market, are swept under the rug. Unfortunately for the bearish economists, they can’t ignore official imports in India. The consensus among economists was for Indian September official imports to come in at about 60 – 80 tons. Full Story
Using Tom McCellan’s article discussing a “blow off” move in the US dollar and its very bearish net short position by commercial traders as a starting point, I would like to talk about the USD and gold and how they each fit in to the global macro backdrop. We could add silver into the mix as well because its failure in relation to gold (ref. the gold-silver ratio’s breakout last week) is the other horseman (joining Uncle Buck) that would indicate a changing macro. Full Story
Jim Grant is the publisher and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a bi-monthly newsletter that he founded in 1983, around the time when bonds were considered some of the worst investments – when they yielded 13 to 15 percent. Rick Rule, Chairman of Sprott US Holdings Inc., often quotes Jim Grant’s description of government bonds as ‘return-free risk.’ (Rick sees US Treasuries as the ‘anti-gold’). Mr. Grant took my questions on interest rates and the bond market – including Bill Gross’ recent departure from PIMCO – via phone from his Manhattan office. Full Story
In the wake of his rock star reception at Madison Square Garden last Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphatically announced to our nation’s top corporate and political leaders that India is now open for business. Between September 26 and 30, he met with not only President Barack Obama and other high-profile politicians but also the CEOs of some of our nation’s largest and most successful companies: Google—which we own in both our All American Equity Fund (GBTFX) and Holmes Macro Trends Fund (MEGAX)—Boeing, PepsiCo and General Electric, among others. Full Story
With the G20 Summit just passed and calls for Russia to participate in November, within the panorama of topics we could cover here today, it seems fitting to delving into the changing geopolitical landscape in the world today again as ‘survival issues’ continue to accelerate, making for the perception of ‘strange bedfellows’ if you are a delusional and desperate American elitist. Big picture thinkers are well aware ‘profound changes’ and new alliances are currently being cemented that will materially alter the balance of power in the world as the years progress, with the rise of the BRIC’s and Eurasian trading blocs at center, not to mention cessation movements in Europe and States themselves. Full Story
Nickel is present in over 3000 different alloys that are used in over 300,000 products for consumer, industrial, military, transport/aerospace, marine and architectural applications. Nickel’s biggest use, about 65 percent, is in alloying - particularly with chromium and other metals to produce stainless and heat-resisting steels. Its primary function is to stabilize the austenitic (face-centered cubic crystal) structure of the steel. Full Story
Politics has long been a driver of international markets and fickle financial systems alike. Everything is connected. Here are some voices from the just-concluded Casey Research Fall Summit talking about cause, effect, and war. Full Story
The dollar institution is much larger than the Fed, the Treasury or the entire basket of FOREX that derives relative values of backless currencies. Full Story
Gary Savage is an expert cycle trader and publisher of a successful market newsletter. His writings strongly influenced my own shift toward cycle methodology many years ago, and although our approaches now differ to a degree, the core techniques of cycle methodology remain constant. And so as a fellow cycle trader and publisher, I find myself in a unique position to interview Gary from a cycle trader's perspective, and Gary has been gracious enough to agree. Full Story
Friday was Non farm payroll day with an announced 248,000 new jobs created in September, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9%. This is the lowest unemployment rate since 2008 so it "looks" like we have recovered and the financial crisis should only be a bad memory. I am going to tell you we are living in a financial mirage. Full Story
How much higher can the dollar go? Betting on the Fed’s paper has been one helluva speculation. No doubt the Fed’s credit quality has been falling, but powerful forces are driving it up, such as desperate debtors clutching for cash to calm their creditors (sorry, couldn’t resist). The dollar was up this week, from 25.5 to 26.1mg gold, or alternatively from 1.76 to 1.86g of silver. Since this move began, the dollar has risen from around 16mg gold, or about 63%. Full Story
I remember once, when I was a small boy, I went to purchase some clothes for myself with my parents. But my mother told me that first we have to go to the bank to take out some money for the purchase. I couldn’t understand why was money needed from the bank when my parents always seemed to have money in their purses, neither did I understand from where did money in the bank come from. Full Story
Bill Murphy lives near Ebola ground zero, only 3-4 miles away from the first domestic case of Ebola. The virus incubation period is not widely known, one source indicates that 21 days after exposure are required before symptoms emerge, making containment a challenging affair and the threat of a pandemic more probable. The gold / silver ratio has leaped to 71, presenting a relative bargain opportunity for silver investors. Gold and commodities would be flying skyward were it not for the coordinated efforts of global central bankers. Full Story
Bill Murphy, Founder Gold Anti Trust Action Committee speaks on the continued manipulation in gold and what he thinks is driving the silver price down. Full Story
It comes as no surprise that the mining shares, as evidenced by the HUI and the junior-laden GDXJ have now gone negative on the year. The theme remains the same as it has for some time now - Western-origin investment demand in the gold sector is non-existent. Full Story
Now that oil has made a lower intermediate low warning bells are ringing that the commodity complex has more than likely begun the move down into its three-year cycle low. That bottom isn’t due until May or June of next year at the earliest. Full Story
Today, in the spirit of the wisdom the Cheshire Cat offers Alice, I would ask how you can know where you are now and where you’re going if you don’t know where you came from. You and I have lived through the first nearly 14 years of this topsy-turvy new century together, and many of its details as well as its overarching themes deserve to be recalled. But rather than offering you a dry, plodding recap of recent history, I’ve come up with a different and hopefully more fun way to revisit the past decade and a half. Full Story
There’s a rush to buy gold coins and bars all over the world this autumn. Last week coin sales at the US Mint were running at the highest this year with September sales double the August tally. There was a similar surge in sales of coins and minted bars at the Perth Mint to 68,781 ounces last month with Chinese buyers accounting for 80 per cent of business. The super-rich are stocking up on gold. Full Story
Without question, the least understood, least visible force that affects almost everyone’s lives, certainly in the Western world, is that of the elites, the moneychangers, the relative handful that controls everything, from the BIS, IMF, and down to the central bankers. These individuals remain nameless and faceless, but their roots are founded by that widely known banking clan, the Rothschilds. Full Story
Markets and many stocks continued to consolidate and correct but we did see a decent sign that a low may be in Thursday and Friday. I never really expected this correction to be very deep and so far it hasn’t been. I also expected this correction to run until around this time or until mid-October, which is fast approaching. Full Story
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