Since the early 2000s, I’ve been describing a coming economic depression that will dwarf the one that began in 1929. But, this is by no means guesswork or crystal ball gazing. Whenever a country (or countries) create debt that is beyond the level that they can ever repay, an economic collapse is a near-certainty. Today, many jurisdictions, particularly, the US, EU, UK, Canada, etc. have created debt that is far beyond anything the world has ever seen. This assures us that the corresponding collapse will be of epic proportions. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 9 September, 2016
For years I have argued that ultra-low interest rates act more as an economic sedative than a stimulant. This idea has elicited laughter from the economic establishment. But it is becoming clearer that rates set by central banks that are far below the levels that free markets would have otherwise determined have dragged the world into the economic mud. The simple proof is currently arising in Europe where negative interest rates are now transforming companies from agents of growth, production, and employment into financial sloths that exist solely to borrow money. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 9 September, 2016
Gold stocks have suffered a terrible month, plunging in a serious selloff. The resulting carnage has left investors and speculators shaken, wondering if this red-hot sector’s blistering new bull this year has already run out of steam. These fears are misplaced, as massive corrections are common in major gold-stock bulls. They create bulls’ best buying opportunities in sentimental, technical, and fundamental terms. Full Story
Debt deflation is the end game for Europe. Most EU nations are insolvent as soon as their interest rates spike even into the low single digits. And with EU banks leveraged at 26 to 1 with EU sovereign bonds being used as the senior most assets on their balance sheets, you only need a 4% drop in EU bond levels to render most large EU banks insolvent. Full Story
But despite the Labor Day holiday on Monday, which kept trade quiet this week, precious metal prices rose strongly, before some consolidation set in on Wednesday. Gold had risen from $1310 the previous Friday to a high of $1352, before drifting off to $1336 in early European trade this morning. Silver bottomed at $18.75, and rallied to $20.13 before drifting off to $19.52 on the same time-scale Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 September, 2016
According to my new research, there is a very important Gold-Silver ratio that every precious metals investor needs to know about. While most precious metals investors are familiar with the Gold-Silver price ratio of 68/1 (presently) as well as the Silver-Gold production ratio of nearly 9/1 (2015), they have no idea about an even more important ratio that I will explain below. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 9 September, 2016
If you read some gold-focused web sites you could come away with the belief that movements in the gold price are almost completely random, depending more on the whims/abilities of evil manipulators and the news of the day than on genuine fundamental drivers. The following two charts can be viewed as cures for this wrongheaded belief. Full Story
The two most recent examples of Western Central Banks moving into precious metals in a serious way are the Swiss and Norwegian Central Banks. Both banks are being reported to have printed close to $1 billion dollars of fiat money as of recently. This should come as no shock to anyone, as this is all Central Banks know how to do - print money. What is more stunning, however, is where they immediately moved these funds. You guessed it right - into precious metals. Full Story
Let’s analyze the chart below which shows how gold performed each year of the presidential election cycle. The first year of a presidency is a post-election year, the second is called the midterm election year, the third is the pre-election year, and the last year is an election year. For the yellow metal, the post-election year is the worst, as it gains only 2.27 percent, on average. Full Story
A lot of questions were raised when it was reported that Deutsche Borse failed to deliver physical gold in exchange for its Xetra-Gold Notes. But the only real answer to those questions is simple: the only way you ever own physical gold is if you buy actual physical gold and take possession. The allegations that Xetra-Gold or Deutsche Bank or Deutsche Borse committed fraud or failed to deliver gold are strictly false. One thorough reading of the Xetra-Gold prospectus dispels those allegations. Full Story
Oil and energy stocks have a bit further to rally but I do not expect either to get very far before the next daily cycle low comes due. This video will show you the likely trajectory of future price performance in the energy markets over the next several weeks. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 9 September, 2016
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan went on record Thursday with the observation that U.S. stocks keep heading higher because, as long as global interest rates remain low to negative, there’s nowhere else for investors to go. Ordinarily, we’d put Moynihan on our short list for the Irving Fisher Memorial Award. Fisher, many of you will recall, was the eminent Yale economist who famously declared three days before the 1929 Crash that “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Full Story
Do young Americans today know anything about economics? No, they don't, according to a study during the 2016 presidential primary season, which says lots of other Americans don't either. The survey found 58% of millennials favor government-run socialism (statistically 6 out of 10), while a nearly identical number (64%) don't want government interference in free markets. Full Story
Could a Deutsche Bank collapse serve as the catalyst for a 2008-type global credit storm? When analyzing this question one must be very careful from making dogmatic statements since no one (especially an outsider to the international banking industry) can possibly know all the variables involved. There are, however, some guidelines that can help us understand the position of the broad market vis-à-vis the effects of an ailing global institution. These guidelines should allow us to at least handicap the odds of a global financial meltdown. Full Story
Muni bonds’ favorable tax exemption was created a little over 100 years ago to attract investors of all stripes, not just those at the very top of the socioeconomic ladder, to help boost infrastructure spending. Although HNWIs have historically been more drawn to munis than investors in lower tax brackets, the spread has widened alarmingly in recent years. Full Story
If I'm right in my assessment of the global financial landscape, the intermediate trend for gold and silver has now kicked in and should draw gold toward that big downtrend line drawn off tops made in late 2011 and late 2013. However, back in Q1, when I penned the missive "Patiently Climbing Aboard the New Golden Bull" with gold slightly north of $1,100 and the HUI at 115, that overhead resistance was up at around $1,450. With the passage of time, today it is right at $1,400 and explains why the Cretins were pulling out all of the stops to cap the rallies back in July and August. Full Story
There’s something to be said for provocative titles – and certainly, today’s will draw attention above and beyond the usual truth seeker. That said, it was the obvious choice, as it was the only way to properly connect the parallel topics I intend to discuss, spanning the political, economic, and monetary spheres. To start, there’s the pitifully sad deterioration of the Clinton campaign – which in my view, will not only mark the peak, and subsequent collapse, of the Democratic Party’s power, but the complete disgrace of the Clinton legacy. Not that Republicans will benefit much, as Donald Trump has as little interest in the current status quo – i.e., big government, as Ron Paul. Full Story
It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution. At its core, their indoctrinated focus on inflation may well do more harm than good, with potentially perilous implications for investors. Full Story
In 2013 we’ve witnessed the inception of the Chinese gold ETF market. At first demand for the gold ETFs was neglectable, as investors mostly preferred to buy the physical gold directly at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) or buy jewelry or investment bars through retail channels. This year, however, there has been a major shift in gold ETF demand in China. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns to the show with insights on the PMs sector. The gold cartel continues to be the key shadowy force behind downward price movements in the PMs sector. Physical supply constraints are hindering their efforts, as evidenced by the sharp recovery in price in recent weeks. Full Story
In the world of phenomena, everything has a beginning and an end; and today, the bankers’ endgame is moving closer to its inevitable resolution and demise. The question is no longer if, it is when and how. The relationship between paper money and gold is causal in central banking’s collapse. When paper money was backed by gold, it (1) gave the bankers’ paper money its value and (2) constrained the ability of governments to print limitless amounts of money, as governments needed money backed by gold to balance trade deficits, i.e. value for value. Full Story
Note that Cuban doesn’t even try to debate my claim that Central Banks have cornered the bond market. He completely concedes the point and moves on to assert that he is worried that if Trump wins, Central Banks "may find other bonds” (which I take to mean that they won’t buy US Treasuries anymore). Folks, we are witnessing the single biggest financial experiment in history. Full Story
One of the big advantages of being a Latin American or Asian country used to be — somewhat counter-intuitively — the lack of credit available to most citizens. The banking system in, say, Brazil or Thailand simply wasn’t “advanced” enough to offer credit card, auto, or mortgage loans on a scale sufficient to turn the locals into US-style debt slaves. Full Story
Everyone seems to think we are going to get a big sell off right after the elections. I doubt that will happen as we will be entering the most bullish time of the year (not to mention the Nasdaq is breaking out of its 15 year consolidation). The last two intermediate cycles were about normal in duration. I expect this cycle to stretch a bit and possibly not bottom until January. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 8 September, 2016
Speculators continue to goose this gas-bag whenever the release of phony inventory numbers suggests that the supply of crude has tightened. In fact, the fudge-factor for determining how much oil is ‘out there’ is so huge as to make swings of several million barrels statistically irrelevant. Many sovereign oil producers no longer even offer estimates; moreover, with skittish producers holding their cards closer than ever to their chests, it can no longer be reliably determined whether supertankers sitting low in the water are filled with oil or seawater. Full Story
A year ago at this time, it was hard for investors to find available inventory for the most popular silver products – as well as some gold coins. Premiums for the silver American Eagle reached nearly $6.00 per coin. Mints and refiners couldn’t keep up with demand, and long lead times became par for the course across the silver product line. Full Story
Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors returns with comments on the financial markets. Our guest is monitoring the gold to silver ratio closely, noting the predictive powers, similar to a credit spread or yield curve. Every investment portfolio must include gold / silver assets; the perfect insurance against global money printing. Full Story
At this time in 2015, with the price of gold nosing below $1,100, mining companies were in the last stages of the “Great Dividend Cut.” Any free cash flow that a firm once had to pay a substantial dividend had long since dwindled to a trickle. Mining companies had shifted their focus to cutting costs, chopping debt and staying alive. And now? As I’ll explain, dividends are back on the front burner. Here’s why that’s good news not just for stock investors, but for the long-term price of gold as well. Full Story
The US Dollar Index is not a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to gold. However, there is a relationship between the US Dollar Index and gold price rallies. The best gold price rallies came during periods where the US dollar index was in a declining trend. During the 70s, for example, the US dollar index was in decline during the major gold rallies (1971 to 1974, and 1976 to 1980). Full Story
There is too much information out there already and 90% or more of it is garbage. Conceivably, this is why experts who have been focussing on the fundamentals cannot understand why this market continues to surge higher. Fundamental data is provided in a standard format, so everyone that has access to it draws the same conclusion. Now, with EPS and other statistics being manipulated, the little value that fundamentals once offered is entirely negated. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 7 September, 2016
The U.S. financial system is in serious trouble and this one chart confirms it. Investors who understand the negative consequences of this chart would be buying physical gold and silver hand over fist. Unfortunately, Americans have been put to sleep by the Mainstream media as they continue to report that “business as usual forever and everything will be okay.” Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 7 September, 2016
The futures blew past the 1346.10 target with ease, implying that an ABC pattern of greater magnitude, with a correspondingly higher target, is driving this rally. The one shown projects to 1430.80, about 5.6% above current levels. The futures tripped a theoretical buy signal to this number when they hit the green line today. However, the implied $3100 initial stop-loss is reason to look for other, less risky, ways to get aboard. Since only one subscriber reported using the guidance I put out last night to get long, I’ll save more-detailed tactics for the chat room on Wednesday, assuming the interest is there. Full Story
In any market, even in a non-manipulated market, which there is probably none. The stock market, bond market, metals markets, futures markets, options… just about everything out there is geared and leveraged and pretty much manipulated by the trading algorithms, and other means, but regardless of that, all markets move up and down. Nothing goes straight up or straight down, and so there are periods where there's profit-taking, there's periods where there's consolidation, that type of thing. So regardless of manipulated or not, all markets ebb and flow. Full Story
It’s clear that gold responded to the latest jobs report in “textbook” fashion. I suggested gold would decline to about $1310 ahead of the jobs report. It went to about $1306. Since then, gold has rallied to about $1335 and the technical situation is now very good. Note the 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. There’s a crossover buy signal in play. Full Story
Trying to gauge where the economy is headed is almost always a waste of time; other than pouring over seams of data and losing a large dose of time, you will be none the wiser. If this activity were indeed useful then almost all Economists would be millionaires; sadly, they are not. They are usually working for large multi-million or billion dollar corporations, who can afford to hire them to come out with these silly scenarios that they do not even believe in; it is not by coincidence that economics is referred to as the “dismal science.” Full Story
Stock markets and bond markets have reached all-time highs and sovereign debt yields are at all-time lows. Yes, global central banks have pushed stocks up and yields down. This is dangerous and will eventually become catastrophic – unless you believe that markets can be PERMANENTLY manipulated higher. Full Story
The August unemployment report came in soft on Friday, with payroll expansion of 151,000, reports Bank of America. Consumer confidence surprised to the upside, while the ISM manufacturing index slipped to 49.4. In addition, the Department of Labor reported that second quarter productivity fell by 0.6 percent (the longest streak of declines in more than 35 years). As BofAML notes, when faced with a choice of defending the inflation target or allowing a modest overshoot, the Fed will choose the latter, meaning negative real rates could persist ahead. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 6 September, 2016
Some analysts argue that the US economy is strong enough to handle some rate-hiking by the Fed. Others argue that with the economy growing slowly the Fed should err on the side of caution and continue to postpone its next rate hike. Still others argue that the economy is so weak that the Fed not only shouldn’t hike its targeted interest rate, it should be seriously considering a rate CUT and other stimulus measures. All of these arguments are based on a false premise. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 6 September, 2016
The broad averages have made no headway for nearly two months and are looking heavier by the day. Although we should have no illusions about timing the onset of the Big One, we can still prepare for it without taking much risk. Accordingly, I’ll suggest buying the Oct 21 200 – Sep 16 199 put spread eight times for a 0.57 debit. This is a slightly vertical calendar spread with a bearish bias and a maximum payoff if SPY falls to 200 between now and October 21. The idea behind the strategy is to bide our time waiting for the Big One, paying for our long puts by shorting weekly puts against them every Friday. Full Story
John Embry, Senior Strategist at Sprott Asset Management returns with key insights into the startling 2016 PMs market rally. The recent pullback represents a discounted buying opportunity within a new long-term bull market. Senior Research Fellow, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts rejoins the show. The bullion banks have "An infinite stockpile of naked gold shorts, driving down the price." The shorting machination began in 2011, culminating in the 2016 gold rally. Full Story
Many people are aware that the world is going to Hell, and are feeling very uneasy because they can’t see through the smog of propaganda to precisely why this is happening – after all, with progress and technological advances, life is supposed to get better for more people, right? There are two big reasons that things are going off the rails. One is the abandonment of honest money with the world being set on the road to ruin when Nixon finally finished off the gold standard in 1971. Full Story
The stock market was basically flat last week, which is understandable given present circumstances. The status quo is doing their damdest to keep it elevated going into the election, and everybody else knows this and is allowing them to continue slowly inflating the bubbles. And again, as pointed out some time ago, this can continue right up until election time given the right circumstances – to a point the longs feel comfortable the status quo will be maintained. Full Story
The privilege and advantages enjoyed by those running our banking and monetary systems functions are deeply unfair. If those in charge of them want to keep their heads, its best to keep the public in the dark as much as possible. Well, I think the cat’s out of the bag, and I base that on two exceptional recent events. The first was the ill-fated launching of a Fed Facebook page, by the Fed, and the second was a real turnabout article penned in the WSJ by none other than perennial Fed insider/toady John Hilsenrath. Full Story
Tonight I would like to show you a long term 40 year monthly chart for the $COMPQ which I call the history chart. Some of you were not even born when some of these significance events happened. At the time they seemed significant enough that most thought the end of the world as we knew it was near. Some of the older members will remember some of these events like they just happened yesterday. Full Story
This video discusses the precarious position the stock market finds itself and discuses the implications for a future correction. This setup may have an adverse effect on the oil/energy markets. Full Story
Why is this issue of the Report entitled the Federal Reserve Report? We chose this headline because the Fed is apparently now the driver of supply and demand of gold and silver. Or at least it’s what speculators in gold and silver expect will drive the decisions of the hoarders, whom the speculators are trying to front-run. Full Story
Scientific research says that leaving your normal environment can stoke creativity. This is one reason organizations send managers and workers to off-site retreats and conferences. “Getting away from it all” seems to lubricate our brains. You would think the effect might have been observable among the central bankers who attended the Federal Reserve’s recent Jackson Hole, Wyoming, retreat. Sadly, however, having reviewed the speeches and the interviews that came out of the gathering, I found few if any fresh ideas, or at least none that would truly be helpful. Full Story
Time to revisit the “play toy of the funds”, aka, silver. On Thursday of this past week, silver managed to claw its way back above its downtrending 10 day moving average, a positive sign. However, ahead of an often unpredictable payrolls report, most traders are not going to get aggressive preferring instead to wait for the report and the reaction before committing precious capital. Full Story
Have mercy! I’m starting this article late Friday afternoon, to be finished tomorrow morning (I’m leaving shortly, to take Sylvie to a special outdoor showing of The Force Awakens). And I kid you not, since my must listen Audioblog from yesterday morning, “Brexit II – Coming November,” I have gathered a mind-numbing eight pages of “PM-bullish, everything else bearish” headlines – ranging from the political, to the economic, to the monetary. Each, in and of itself, is “article-worthy”; and the scariest part is, eight-page “horrible headline” logs will shortly become commonplace – as the collapse of history’s largest, most destructive fiat Ponzi scheme unfolds. Full Story
Thursday’s ISM report was Thing 1 in improving the backdrop for gold. But it was a small Thing. Friday’s August Payrolls report was Thing 2, and it was a better Thing. Gold and especially the gold mining sector are invigorated fundamentally during economic easing, not during economic growth phases, inflationary or otherwise. In this post we’ll review two of the charts (gold vs. commodities and gold vs. stock markets) we have used since before the new gold bull market began in order to update some important macro fundamentals. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 5 September, 2016
Gold and gold stocks bounced to end the week thanks to an oversold condition coupled with a softer than expected jobs report which likely delays Fed action until December. At one point this past week the market had priced in a 64% chance of a single rate hike by December and a 42% chance of a rate hike this month. A single rate hike is not going to derail the young bull market in precious metals and as long as the lows of this week hold then the bull market is in position to grow stronger by the end of the year. Full Story
What a summer it’s been. I’ve taken many weekends off and booked it out of town to enjoy it while it’s here. Stocks ended the week on a strong note and are looking to move higher anytime at all now while metals tested and held support areas and are now turning higher. Mining stocks are really turning up quickly and should continue to be strong for a few years as we remain in the very early stages of this metals bull market. Full Story
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