The census bureau does the data-gathering and the Bureau of Labor Statistics feeds the questionable data sample through its statistical sausage grinder and spits out some type of grotesque scatological substance. You know an economic report is pure absurdity when the report exceeds Wall Street’s rose-colored estimate by 53%. That has to be, by far, an all-time record-high “beat.” Full Story
The small contrarian gold-mining sector remains deeply out of favor, universally ignored. Thus the gold stocks are largely drifting listlessly, totally devoid of excitement. But that’s the best time to buy low, when few others care. The gold stocks continue to form strong technical bases, paving the way for massive mean-reversion uplegs. And they remain exceedingly cheap relative to gold prices, which drive their profits. Full Story
Donald Trump's tax cuts are already paying dividends... well, actually the companies that are benefiting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed by the Trump Administration in December are not only returning cash to shareholders in the form of dividends, but are presiding over what could be the largest share buyback program in history. Full Story
In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we explored the fascinating history of bull and bear cycles in both the U.S. dollar and gold. Since then, the idea of cyclicity doesn’t lead me to drop off, disrupting my sleep cycles. Let’s then dig into the topic. We start with the business cycles, as in the recent Gold News Monitor we wrote that “we are in the late stages of the economic cycle – as the cycle matures, volatility increases and investors start to buy more gold as a hedge.” Why do we believe so? And what are the implications for gold’s future? Full Story
There is a lot of commentary going around the world, regarding Trump’s initiation of a “Trade War” to rebuild America’s industries. Trump thinks that tariffs will do the trick, and stop the rest of the world from taking unfair advantage of the US by selling their goods to the US in exchange for lots of US dollars. According to Trump, this nefarious behavior on the part of the rest of the world is causing a h-u-u-u-ge Trade Deficit, sending hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country. Trump’s view is that this is just plain “unfair”. Full Story
Top Wall Street Chartered Technical Analyst (CTA), Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management, revered as "A Professor of Technical Analysis," returns. Investors grew complacent amid arguably the greatest stock bull market in history, illustrated by few if any typical reactions. Our guest advises investors to ignore the recent uptick in volatility - US shares are fairly priced and likely to set records in 2018. Full Story
You thought I was done with the Amigos shtick, did you? Not by a long shot ma’am. They are the happy-go-lucky riders in play as the stock bull market churns on. They are the rising SPX/Gold ratio and stocks in general vs. gold (Amigo #1), rising US 10yr and 30yr yields (Amigo #2) and the flattening 10-2 yield curve (Amigo #3). On their current trends these goofy riders have signaled “a-okay!” to casino patrons playing the stock market and other risk ‘on’ items. Full Story
Bloomberg news has the effrontery to ask: Did Trump Just Start a Global Trade War? Although even MSNBC pit bull Rachel Maddow treats the President with more deference than Bloomberg.com, it’s still a fair question to ask. Judging from the way the stock market has flounced around recently, Wall Street’s answer to the question is an emphatic “maybe.” For once, the Street seems to have gotten it half-right. The bill Trump signed on Thursday will place tariffs of 25% and 10%, respectively, on steel and aluminum. Full Story
This is obviously good news for workers who’ve seen their wages stagnate since the 1990s. But it also means “wage inflation” is apparently about to become an issue. Because the Fed ignores rising prices for financial assets (that is, things that benefit the big banks and their favored clients) while focusing intently on grocery store prices and wages, a sudden spike in hourly pay puts extreme pressure on the Fed to raise short-term rates and sell off the bonds it bought to force long rates down during the Great Recession. The result? Interest rates might rise faster than most now expect. Full Story
In August 2014, the long-standing and tainted London Silver Fixing daily auction was replaced by a newly launched London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Silver Price daily auction. Similarly, in March 2015, the infamous London Gold Fixing daily auctions were replaced by revised twice daily LBMA Gold Price auctions. Full Story
To be sure, there are many who reject, out of hand, my allegation that JPMorgan has accumulated a massive amount of physical silver over the past seven years, amounting to 700 million ounces or more. That’s completely understandable, since I can’t document and point out all 700 million oz and few have taken the time to review the basis of my claim. It doesn’t matter that I first picked up on JPMorgan’s quest to acquire physical silver four years ago, by which time it had already accumulated 300 million oz and have been monitoring and reporting on it ever since – if I can’t show every ounce belonging to JPM, some will remain skeptical. Full Story
President Trump shook the world last week, saying: “(…) trade wars are good, and easy to win.” Wrong! Each economist will say that. It’s true that economists often argue with each other. People even said “two economists, three opinions”. But economists do agree on many fundamental issues. One of them is the proposition that free trade is better than protection. Full Story
Silver prices move farther and faster than gold prices, both up and down. When long term rallies begin silver often lags gold as in early 2018. The current gold to silver ratio at eighty to one is high. Fifty-nine to one has been the average for 40 years. Prior to 1913 the average was about 15 to one. Full Story
Precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on sell signals, a pullback is in progress. Cycle is down. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold related ETFs for long term gain. Full Story
Despite the heavy beating Bitcoin has taken, the sentiment has not turned bearish, and Bitcoin experts are still enthusiastically issuing wild targets of $100K and beyond. Do these experts ever bother to look at the charts before issuing such targets or do they do so after ingesting some toxic substance? We will never know the answer to that question, but what we do know is that in most cases they have no idea of how high or low the market is going to go. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, outlines his technical vantage point on Bitcoin, US shares, gold, silver and related indexes. Due in large part to the ominous technical condition of the US Greenback, our guest expects the world's reserve currency to continue to decline. The market could be entering free fall amid an ominous inverse golden cross, where the shorter term 50 week MA crosses below the longer 200 week MA. Full Story
Markets were triggered and shocked a few days ago when the yield on the Bellwether U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note shot up over 2.9% which resulted mainly from Fed Chair Powell’s hinting at the possibility of 4 rate hikes this year. Full Story
There's been a lot of talk these past few days about the "bullishness" of the latest Commitment of Traders Report for COMEX silver—and rightfully so. However, without some context, it's difficult to determine the degree to which the latest report is historic and unprecedented. Here's what we know: For the first time in nearly 15 years, the group called "Large Speculators" (hedge funds, trading funds, managed money, etc.) on the Commitment of Traders "Legacy" report is NET SHORT COMEX silver futures. Full Story
The financial media is awash with claims that Gary Cohn’s resignation as Chief Economic Advisor is triggering a market collapse. While it’s true that a market collapse is starting again, it has nothing to do with Gary Cohn. How do I know? Because Gary Cohn first wrote a resignation letter back in August 2017 in the wake of the Charlottesville mess… and stocks exploded higher beginning one of their greatest rallies in history. Full Story
The precious metals sector continues to correct and consolidate. Gold remains in a bullish consolidation. It recently reached resistance again and even though it has failed to breakout, it remains above long-term moving averages which are sloping upward. However, the gold stocks and Silver remain in correction mode. They are trading below the long-term moving averages and at the lower end of their ranges over the past 12 months. That certainly provides an opportunity, but these markets may not truly perform until Gold is ready to breakout. Full Story
With his announcement last week of broad tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, President Trump launched what could be the first salvo of an all-out global trade war. Seemingly itching for a fight, he gleefully tweeted that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win." It seems like Trump thinks the conflict will play out much like Ronald Reagan's 1983 week-long invasion of Grenada rather than the more telling quagmires that unfolded in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. He's wrong. Full Story
It’s been only a couple of days since Thursday, when we closed our short positions and we have already seen a sizable rally in gold and silver. In fact, yesterday’s upswing was so significant that both precious metals already moved to the target areas that we featured on Monday, even though they were “scheduled” to move there at the end of the week. Is the top already in? Silver’s short-term outperformance definitely seems to suggest that it’s either in or at hand… Full Story
Circumstantial evidence is mounting high that there is something seriously wrong with the amount of gold reportedly owned by the United States government, or more precisely, the American people. After nearly two generations of being brainwashed into believing that gold is a meaningless relic, western citizens have lost all concept of gold’s crucial monetary importance. If it turns out that the United States does not, in fact, possess and own the gold it claims to, the monetary, fiscal, economic, and humanitarian fallout will be unprecedented in its destructiveness. Unfortunately, the people have no idea what is at stake. Full Story
The information provided in the BIS monthly statement of account is not sufficient to calculate a precise amount of gold-related derivatives, including swaps, but it appears that the bank's total exposure as of February 28, 2018, was 525 tonnes of gold. This compares to estimates of 580 tonnes, 450 tonnes, 600 tonnes, and 570 tonnes, respectively, at the January, December, November, and October month-ends and an audited swaps figure of 438 tonnes as of March 31, 2017. Full Story
Index futures have plunged Tuesday night on news that Gary Cohn, Trump’s top economic adviser, is resigning. The selloff has brought the E-Mini futures down to within an inch of triggering a ‘mechanical’ buy I’d flagged at 2687.00. Ordinarily I’d say jump on it using the precautions I’d advised to set up a low-risk entry point. After all, who the heck is Gary Cohn, anyway? I could not have answered that question myself until an hour ago, and that’s why “buying the news” would seem to be a no-brainer here, especially seeing how brutally DaBoyz’ have shaken the tree this evening to produce bargains. Full Story
The situation facing stocks may appear more ominous with the addition of President Donald Trump's tariff threat. But libertarian Ron Paul suggests Wall Street is missing the bigger picture. The real trouble stems from Federal Reserve policy and easy money, according to the former presidential candidate. Full Story
Mike Maloney revealed that he recently made a large purchase of silver because of how undervalued it is. And he bought silver instead of gold because of how high the gold/silver ratio is. If you want to mimic Mike’s purchase of silver while it’s still undervalued, history says you only have 27 days to do so. Full Story
How often have you heard the phrase “the government will never let it happen”? It almost doesn’t matter what the topic is you are talking about, nothing “bad” can ever really happen …or so it is thought. The reason of course is because we are so many years into “MOPE” (management of perspective economics). No matter what has happened in the past, the media, Wall Street, and the government have constantly spun the narrative to lead the “perspective”. MOPE has been with us for such a long time, it is not surprising the public is conditioned into believing nothing bad will EVER happen. Full Story
If gold bursts above $1370 with rising inflation in the West and the new Dubai spot gold contract serving as wind at its back, GDX should explode upwards above $25. This would in turn see many more institutional investors come to embrace gold stocks as offering generational value with the best potential for price appreciation! Full Story
The intuition that an increase in the money supply should lead to a rise in prices, including the price of gold, comes from a very old theory of money—the quantity theory of money—going back to at least the philosopher David Hume. Hume asked his readers to imagine a situation in which everyone in Great Britain suddenly had "five pounds slipt into his pocket in one night." Hume reasoned that this sudden increase in the money supply would "only serve to increase the prices of every thing, without any farther consequence." Full Story
President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff on imported steel and aluminum, at 25 percent and 10 percent, is much more than a shot across the bow. Indeed, this could be the official kickoff of the trade war we all anticipated. The protectionist trade policy, announced last week as the president met with metals executives, raised fresh inflation worries and had an immediate impact on capital markets. Full Story
The Italian election could affect the gold market via two channels. First, it could increase the safe-haven demand for the yellow metal, as the vote strengthened the populist parties. As a reminder, Italy is the Eurozone’s third-largest economy, struggling with a high debt-to-GDP ratio (see the chart below) and a vast amount of non-performing loans. The triumph of eurosceptics could add to the uncertainty about the economic future of Italy. Full Story
The rising interest-rate trend in the US isn’t new and isn’t related to the Fed’s so-called “policy normalisation” program. However, it has only just started to matter. That the rising interest-rate trend isn’t new and isn’t related to the Fed’s rate-hiking efforts is clearly illustrated by the following chart. This chart shows that the US 2-year T-Note yield began trending upward in 2011 — more than 6 years ago and more than 4 years prior to the Fed’s first rate hike. Full Story
Discoveries can come in many forms – they can be physical, scientific, personal, or even philosophical in nature. But while there are different types of discoveries that can be made, perhaps the most tactile kind of discovery is in the field of mineral exploration. The discovery of a mineral deposit can transform a piece of “moose pasture” into a new economic asset, and it may enable millions or billions of dollars worth of metals and minerals to be used for human purposes. Full Story
The Fed officially has a new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. And ever since he took office, it is clear that “something” has changed at the Fed. That something is the famed “Fed put” or the idea that the Fed would immediately move to prop up stocks any time they began to fall. Jerome Powell was sworn in as Fed Chair on February 5th 2018. Full Story
Taking profits on our short positions and closing them on Thursday turned out to be a good idea. Gold, silver and – on an intraday basis – mining stocks moved higher on Friday, while the USD Index declined. But, is the rally over after just one day? Not likely – gold’s and miners’ turning points are likely to result in something more than just a daily rally. So, how high is gold likely to rally this time? That’s what we discuss in the following part of today’s alert. Full Story
Let’s continue on our topic of capital consumption. It’s an important area of study, as our system of central bank socialism imposes many incentives to consume and destroy capital. As capital is the leverage that increases the productivity of human effort, it is vital that we understand what’s happening. We do not work harder today, than they worked 200 years ago, or in the ancient world. Yet we produce so much more, that obesity is a disease more of the poor than the rich. Destruction of capital will cause us to produce less, and that will mean reverting to a lower quality of life. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was silver, nearly flat with a drift lower by just 0.06 percent. Sharp’s Pixley notes gold demand is on the rise while supply has begun to fall, signaling a potential increase in the gold price. Many see gold as appealing in the medium and long term due to the sustained demographic move into the middle class in China and India, the world’s two most populous nations. Full Story
Stock markets just put in their worst month since January 2016. The Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) closed down 4.3% on the month. Losses have continued into March. At one point the DJI was down 12.2% from its January 2018 all-time high—a significant correction by any measurement. Other markets fared no better with some being worse. The SPX 500 was off 3.9%, the NASDAQ lost 1.9% while the Dow Jones Transportations (DJT) dropped 5.4%. The small cap Russell 2000 dropped only 4.0%; that the smaller cap stocks that usually lead the way down held in so well is encouraging. Full Story
While I am not going to go into the details and charts that I provide to my subscribers, I will simply explain that we can see further upside action early in the coming week. But, as long as we remain below last week’s high, the market has a set up in place to retest the 2530 region, with strong potential to break down towards the low 2400 region before this correction runs its course. For now, 2600-2630SPX is going to be the support you need to watch should we see another downside follow through in the coming week. Full Story
CEO Thomas Coughlin the founder of Kinesis as well as, Andrew Maguire, return with part two of this epic-exclusive Goldseek conference call, simultaneously on three continents. Lior Gantz of Wealth Research Group makes his show debut with his insights on Bitcoin, Altcoins and the PMs. Full Story
How inflated with debt have we become? How long can we float on our own bloat? Reasonably trim in 1970, the sum of all debt publicly financed by the US government was $275 billion. Last week, the government sought to raise $258 billion in just one week! The weekly financing to keep the government afloat is now about equal to all the debt it amassed over the course of its first 188 years. Full Story
I’m going to wrap up our series on the problems of collecting and analyzing data in the first half of this letter, and then I’ll quickly comment on the Trump tariffs. I think both topics will feature in this week’s Strategic Investment Conference. At the end of the letter there will be a link to our Virtual Pass, which will allow you to watch the conference live or at your leisure and to read the transcripts of the presentations. Full Story
Short sellers, of course, want to know when to close out their at-long-last-profitable bets (see David Einhorn). Cautious investors (see Warren Buffett) with money on the sidelines want to know when to step in and buy. And fully invested optimists (the vast majority these days), are wondering if they should keep buying the dips till the cavalry arrives. Full Story
While silver is completely off the radar to most investors, it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates. Unfortunately, investors, today are no longer capable of recognizing when an asset displays a HIGH or LOW risk. Thus, fundamental indicators are ignored as the investors continue the insane strategy of “Buying the Dip.” Full Story
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts sent me an article by Catherine Austin Fitts and asked if I had read it. The article is titled, “The State of America’s Pension Funds.” The article is worth reading, though I believe Ms. Fitts underestimates significantly the degree to which political and Wall Street criminality – along with money management incompetence – has infected and destroyed the U.S. pension system – both public and private. Furthermore, I believe she errs in her believe that the pension crisis can be fixed. Full Story
This video details my longer term projections for numerous markets including the Nasdaq Index, Semiconductor Index, SPX 500, Commodities Index and Gold. Full Story
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