Scattered diverse and almost uniformly unfavorable and dangerous events are unfolding, as the global economy and financial structure undergoes the equivalent of endless earthquakes and bombardment of solar emissions. Reporting is difficult, since information is distorted toward the sunny side. Events are moving fast, as quickly as the danger level is rising. As conditions worsen, the hype and spin has risen almost out of control. The political machine, tied at the hip to the banking apparatus, has ramped up the growth story even as the strain on the information spin has become more visible and subject to heavy criticism. Full Story
EVERYBODY'S fretting about inflation. Central bankers say there's too little, or will be (just you wait). Lesser mortals feel there's way more than the official numbers let on. And finance professionals think there's a lot more ahead. Full Story
Do you own enough gold and silver for what lies ahead? If 10% of your total investable assets (i.e., excluding equity in your primary residence) aren't held in various forms of gold and silver, we at Casey Research think your portfolio is at risk. After speaking at the Cambridge House conference last month and talking with many attendees, I came away convinced that most investors fall into one of two categories: those that hold an abundance of gold and silver (which tends to be physical forms only), and those with little or none. While both groups need to diversify, I'm a little more concerned about the second group. Here's why. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 9 March, 2012
With Iran waxing belligerent again, oil has been making headlines lately. Stock speculators and investors are anxiously watching its price, gaming how oil stocks are likely to react to various oil-price scenarios. And since the oil complex has already enjoyed a strong upleg, plenty of topping fears exist. But the technicals of oil and the leading oil-stock index, as well as their ratio, show lots of room to run higher yet. Full Story
On Tuesday gold prices continued to break down, falling for a fifth consecutive day breaking below the 200-day moving average. On February 6th we suggested getting out of the speculative long positions, and reiterated it yet once again just a day before the crash. But this week on Tuesday, our SP Gold Bottom Indicator flashed a long-term buy signal. Full Story
Remarkably, The BIS, The Central Bankers’ Bank advertised in June, 2008 that one of its “Products” was “Interventions” in the Gold Market. This came as no surprise to the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA uncovered the BIS advertisement) nor to Deepcaster, nor to others of us who have for years contended that a Cartel* of Mega-Banks (including those who own the private for-profit U.S. Federal Reserve, and Key major Eurozone Bankers) is engaged in an ongoing campaign to suppress Gold and Silver Prices. Full Story
Over the years, with investors continuously seeking the next wave in emerging markets, other clever acronyms came and went, but none caught on quite like the BRIC. In the investment world nothing is static, and at Euro Pacific Capital we feel it's time for a change. But the BRICs don't need to be abandoned, just expanded. In particular, it needs another "I" as in Indonesia. In other words, we think the "BRIC" bloc should now be the "BRIIC" bloc. For a variety of reasons, Indonesia has earned the right to be considered as a premiere destination for emerging market investment. Full Story
Accessing a sustainable, and secure, supply of raw materials is going to become the number one priority for all countries. Increasingly we are going to see countries ensuring their own industries have first rights of access to internally produced commodities and they will look for such privileged access from other countries. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Mark Lackey - 9 March, 2012
Emerging from the shadow of Fukushima, the nuclear sector is on the cusp of a comeback, according to Mark Lackey, chief investment strategist with Toronto-based Pope & Company. Nuclear plants have been reopened, and as many as 200 new plants worldwide are scheduled to come online. At the same time, uranium supply shortages loom on the horizon, making for bullish fundamentals for uranium miners. Lackey's faith in the coal sectors also burns brightly. He talks about both sectors in this exclusive Energy Report interview. Full Story
What themes will drive investment in the next decade? In the essay below, ‘Mercurious,’ a frequent contributor to the Rick’s Picks forum, sees the ebullient U.S. consumer as a dying breed. Even so, for investors who understand that consumption itself is not going to die but merely change, there is money to be made. Full Story
Gasoline consumption in the United States has been dropping for years. In the last decade, vehicle fuel efficiency has improved by 20%, and the combination of that shift and a weak economy of late has pushed gasoline demand to its lowest level in a decade. At the same time, US oil production is at its highest level in a decade. Deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico and horizontal fracs in the Bakken shale have turned America's domestic oil production scene around. After 20 years of declining production, US crude output rates started to climb in 2008 and have increased every year since. Full Story
With Gold’s failure at $1800, it should be obvious that the market is in a protracted consolidation. This is actually similar to 2006-2007 and it is something we wrote about in a missive in early January. At the time, Gold had bottomed and had the luxury of very strong support nearby. We believed Gold would be range bound, but because it was emerging from support, it would have an upward bias. With Gold’s failure at $1800, now we can say range-bound with a downward bias. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 8 March, 2012
Bzzzz! The sound of someone pressing the intercom button, and thus activating the Mogambo Intruder Alert System (MIAS), brought me jolting out of a fitful sleep, full of nightmares brought on by the Federal Reserve creating so impossibly-much money that hyperinflation in consumer prices is guaranteed, meaning, of course, that We're Freaking Doomed (WFD), a situation which nine out of ten doctors will tell you is Bad News Aplenty (BNA). Full Story
As we go through the first significant pullback in the market for 2012, the dollar seems to be at a turning point that should influence market trends for the next few months. Going all the way back to 2002, there has been a strong inverse correlation between stocks and commodities, and the U.S. dollar. For the most part, the dollar has been falling during this period, which has helped drive cyclical bull markets in stocks and commodities. More recently, the stock market panic of 2008 and the first Euro crisis of 2010 drove significant countertrend rallies in the dollar, and corrections in stocks and commodities. Full Story
Gold just needs a trigger to launch it for the most spectacular rally since the late 70’s. I believe that trigger is likely to be the crash (or decline) of the stock markets. This crash, if it occurs, is in anticipation of the inevitable bursting of the debt bubble. This is much like during the Great Depression when the stock markets crashed and bottomed before Total Debt as a % of GDP peaked in 1933. The Sovereign Debt-Crisis (especially in Europe) is the obvious sign that the debt bubble is bursting; with every additional unit of debt producing less or no increased GDP. Full Story
It's time to sell tenth-ounce gold eagles to Americans at $42.22 per ounce. At $42.22 per ounce, a barbarous relic is a very good deal. I think Americans have better uses for the gold than the government does. If Fort Knox isn't empty, here is a great way to save all those storage fees. Soon. Full Story
So many systems are failing – financial, healthcare, education and government, to name a few of the biggies – that one might think it had all been planned that way by the “experts” who hold sway over our lives. In the essay below, a friend, V.R., a management consultant, takes note of some disturbing signs that things are likely to get worse before they get better. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 7 March, 2012
We previously stated that gold ownership was made illegal on 1st May 1933. What we did not tell you was that U.S. citizens, under Order 6102, were allowed to own up to $100 in gold coin [+5 ounces]. Today that would be worth under $8,400, a mere token gesture to real gold owners. It acted as a tiny escape valve to the general body of citizens and did not detract from the fact that effective gold ownership was abolished. Full Story
With high market volatility, running a small fund like the Magna Opportunity Fund, which seeks to deliver exceptional returns, requires nimble management. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Bo Chew tells us how he does it and what criteria he uses to select his fund's investments. Full Story
Recently, my parents were considering purchasing some real estate. As the financial professional in the family, they asked me, "What do you think? Will it go up in value? You know… not now, but eventually?" I've heard the same thing over and over again. In response, I shared my opinion: "Would you pay the current market price to live there even if its value never increased?" If the answer is yes, buy the property." Essentially, is the house worth it as a home, not as an investment? Full Story
Today, there are new reports that the Federal Reserve is planning to inject more cash into the ailing economy though another round of Quantitative Easing (QE3). You have read in these pages before that More QE is on the Way (1-22-13, The Gold Speculator). The new bond-buying program would be “sanitized” by coincident selling of short-term instruments in an effort to control increased inflation that would result from the addition of another $1 Trillion or so to the money supply. This approach is not new; the ECB has used large, “sanitized” bond purchases over the last year in its attempt to stimulate the Eurozone economy and provide bailout funds to ailing European banks. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital - 7 March, 2012
This past week, gold and silver experienced one of their steeper drops in recent months. After gold had touched a four month high, and silver came close to a six month high, prices abruptly reversed course. By the end of the week gold had sold off more than 5 percent, and silver was down almost 10 percent (down 6.5 percent on Leap Day alone). Often, such sudden price falls create downward momentum. And it looks as if that may be the case this week. Thus far this week silver has dipped 3 percent. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 7 March, 2012
Lurking behind the scenes, as always are the degenerate bankers who want to grab as much as they can. It is not only Greece, but also the five to follow, that will have to be supported indefinitely, or be allowed as well to fail. Not to be slighted are the UK and US banks that hold large positions, in Greek and other European sovereign debt. Incidentally, those owning CDS, Credit Default Swaps, had best forget collecting on your insurance, because the NYC banks have no intention of paying off, nor do they have the funds to do so. Corruption reigns and confidence is non-existent. It is only a matter of when before the bottom comes out. Full Story
In an exclusive video interview with ArabianMoney editor and publisher Peter Cooper the widely respected Swiss investment adviser Dr Marc Faber gave his thoughts on investing in silver and how Dubai might be considered as the Switzerland of the Middle East. He thought in any future war scenario in the region Dubai would be like Switzerland in World War II ‘because all the rich people have got their money invested in Dubai’. Investment in Dubai therefore makes sense especially at current share and real estate prices. Silver he holds on a pedestal with gold as the asset of choice and his main objection is to its physical bulk in relation to its value… Full Story
If another yellow oval is to be painted on the top panel SPX chart and gold should happen to find itself at support well... you know the drill. Take your partner by the hand, swing to the right Do-Ci-Do. Think for yourself; don't let the media and certainly not official spokespeople tell you what you think. If you have operated with perspective since the Euro crisis blew out, you should be sitting comfortably right now awaiting opportunity. Full Story
Like a breath of spring, wasn’t it? Just when we were expecting yet another short-squeeze toward Dow 14000 and beyond, the Indoos plummet a refreshing 203 points, bowing to economic realities and rationality at last. Or was it just March madness? Who cares. When some uncharacteristically glum Wall Street wrap-ups hit the tape late Tuesday afternoon to acknowledge the stock market’s steepest decline of the year, it were as though we’d died and gone to heaven. It was even better than that, actually, since the selloff did not exactly take us by surprise. Full Story
On February 29, gold dropped 4.8% and silver 6.2% (based on London fix prices). That's quite the fall for one day. We've seen prices that have risen that much, too. But as I'm about to show, these ain't nothin', baby. Based on our experience, we've been saying for some time that volatility will increase as the markets fight their way to the mania phase of this cycle – and that once there, the gyrations will jump even higher. This call doesn't exactly require one to go out on a limb; it makes sense since more investors will be crowding in – and volatility was high in the 1979-'80 mania. Full Story
Are you financially invincible? I think you are, and not just because you own gold bullion. About a year ago, I asked the gold community to consider “going on the aggressive” against the “dollar bugs”. In a war, the ultimate winner tends to have the greatest intestinal fortitude. While many investors fear “2008 again”, I would argue that it’s time to use the 2008 experience to understand your own invincibility. Most of the gold community held junior gold stocks in 2008, and the average portfolio experienced what can only be described as a nuclear winter. This crisis is likely to go on for years, and perhaps for decades. There’s almost nothing that the gold bears can do to you that you haven’t experienced already. You can use the 2008 experience to spend the coming years discussing how afraid you are of “2008 again”, or you can use it to laugh in the face of your opponent. Full Story
We would like to begin today’s essay with a discussion of points from a few e-mails that we received after publishing our previous essay entitled Gold Downside Targets and Manipulative Excuses. Most messages were about the remarkable reliability of the self-similar pattern, and about the silver market, but there were a few interesting messages about the manipulation in the gold market, and these are the messages that we will focus on here. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals - 6 March, 2012
Gold prices will only go down when governments change course and make significant cuts. Until then, gold is not in a bubble. It's the only way to protect your wealth; and in the current economic condition, it's poised to go much higher. I think it's high time Buffett takes to heart his father's wise words: "For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money." Full Story
There will be plenty of false rallies (just like last Thursday) to sucker traders back in. But I really doubt gold will put in a lasting bottom until the dollar's intermediate cycle tops. Barring a public announcement of QE3, that is unlikely to happen until sentiment reaches extremes again. That almost always requires a move to new highs and usually takes a minimum of one and a half to two months to generate that kind of bullish sentiment. Full Story
In assessing whether to make tough decisions, policy makers tend to weigh the cost of action versus inaction. As critical as we are of our dear policy makers, when push comes to shove, they may rise to the occasion. But what if they are not told when it’s time to act, when it’s time to stop printing and spending trillions? In our assessment, the voice of reason has been silenced, posing potential risks to economic stability, as well as the U.S. dollar. That voice of reason is no other than the market itself. Let us explain. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 6 March, 2012
"Is the Fed a Failure?" is the title of an article by Gene Epstein in the 27th February edition of Barrons magazine. The article draws on the work of economist George Selgin to argue that the answer to the question is yes, the Fed is a failure. Unfortunately, while this is the right answer the method used to come up with it is not persuasive. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 6 March, 2012
The communist revolutions in the 20th century sought to nationalize the wealth generated by privately held industries back to the "exploited" workers on whose backs the profits were supposedly derived.America has made the rejection of this idea and its support of free market principles the centerpiece of its economic narrative. However, as a result of our current and proposed tax policies towards corporate shareholders, our government collects a portion of industrial output that would inspire envy in even the most rabid Bolshevik. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Stephen Taylor - 6 March, 2012
The precious metals equities selloff at the end of 2011 was overdone, says Stephen Taylor, portfolio manager of The Taylor Fund and founder of Taylor Asset Management, in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. Taylor remains bullish on gold, silver and base metals and is looking to prosper in those sectors over the next three years. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Doug Behnfield - 6 March, 2012
Statistically speaking, the average Baby Boomer has not socked away nearly enough to live well in retirement. Is there time to get back on track? Yes, according to our good friend Doug Behnfield, a Boulder-based financial advisor. But it won’t be easy, he says, and the steps he has outlined below in a letter to clients will create a heavy drag on the U.S. economy in the years ahead -- especially if millions of Baby Boomers try to play catch-up by saving like crazy. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 5 March, 2012
While the Fed has recently released an unprecedented amount of information on its activities, there is still much that remains unknown. Predictably, every push towards transparency has been fought tooth and nail. It took disclosure requirements enacted within the Dodd-Frank Act to get the Fed to provide data on its emergency lending facilities. It took lawsuits filed by Bloomberg and Fox News to provide data on discount window lending during the worst parts of the financial crisis. And it will take further concerted action on the part of Congress, the media, and the public to keep up pressure on the Fed to become and remain transparent. Full Story
At the circus, you are sometimes treated to the spinning plate act where a performer tries to keep an improbable number of plates spinning at once, racing from one plate to the next as their wobbles indicate the need for another dose of momentum. Considering the number of spinning and wobbling plates that our central planners are managing, it's easy to be both amazed and anxious at the same time. Full Story
Gold reversed violently to the downside last week, an event which has serious implications. It had been doing well up to that point and we did not see this reversal coming, so this is going to be "wise after the event" update - still it is considered to be better to be wise after the event than not wise at all, particularly if our interpretation of the meaning of this development proves to be correct. Full Story
First off, the details of the swap are as follows: the ECB simply exchanged 50€ billion worth of old Greek sovereign bonds (which were soon to be worth much less if not be outright worthless) for 50€ billion worth of new Greek sovereign bonds which would not be exposed to default risk or any kind of debt restructuring (unlike those bonds held by private Greek bond holders). Full Story
MarketWatch ran an article on the lack of optimism for the American job market. It offered no analysis of why the market is bad, but it made it clear that it is not likely to get better anytime soon. The article focused on the job market since 2008. It included a chart on salaries since 1980. It has three categories: college graduates, high school dropouts, and total. The chart reveals that there has not been much improvement for a decade. The flat-lining of salaries began a decade ago, not in 2008. Conclusion: things are a lot worse than the article reported.This flat-lining is not simply a result of the recession of 2008-9. It is a long-term condition. Full Story
After spiking above $110, the price of a barrel of crude oil receded sharply on Friday, suggesting that the winds of war had abated, if perhaps only temporarily. Oils ups and downs seemed to track Obama’s rhetoric concerning Iran over the weekend. It began with the President saying, in an interview with Atlantic Monthly magazine released late in the week, that he would never allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon and that it was no bluff to say that the U.S. was prepared to use force to prevent this. But by Sunday, the President had somewhat changed his tune. In a speech before AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby group, he said there was still time to give negotiations and sanctions time to work. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 4 March, 2012
There are those who believe that Greece’s problems are but a precursor to what most of the world will eventually experience. We believe such predictions are correct and cannot be avoided – perhaps the last four years were just a warm up for the future. Greece, like many other countries, keeps borrowing and their revenues cannot keep up with interest service never mind principal repayments. Those in the euro zone do not have the luxury of being able to increase money and credit such as the Fed, BoJ, BoE and the ECB. They, those in the euro zone are trapped. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 4 March, 2012
Let me introduce Mauldin's Rule of Thumb Concerning Unintended Consequences: For every government law hurriedly passed in response to a current or recent crisis, there will be two or more unintended consequences, which will have equal or greater negative effects then the problem it was designed to fix. A corollary is that unelected institutions are at least as bad and possibly worse than elected governments. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Marc Faber - 4 March, 2012
With more than 40 years as an economist to his credit and claiming gold as the "biggest position in my life," Gloom Boom & Doom Report Publisher Marc Faber assures us that gold is nowhere near a bubble phase, but cautions that corrections of 40% are not unusual in a bull market. At the end of March, Faber will share his secrets for surviving corrections at the World MoneyShow in Vancouver. In advance of that appearance, he sat down with The Gold Report for this exclusive interview where he discusses his bias for portfolio diversification in terms of geographies as well as asset classes. Full Story
Many investors have been frustrated with the choppy action on the DOW, so we have provided a chart to illustrate our forecast on the expected price action. This corrective choppy action is an ending diagonal pattern which is a terminal pattern. We should see further downside below the lower trendline with a sharp decline to at least the starting point of the ED pattern at 12550. We should expect to see a brief rally at this level before further downside. Full Story
The week was dominated by strong markets and stocks but the main focus was the huge gold and silver smashing which was obviously a successful attempt to take prices down. It was manipulation plain and simple. Full Story
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