Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro. Full Story
The recent weakness in Gold and gold mining stocks is not over. In fact, we are worried about another leg down getting underway. If that comes to pass, we are positioned to profit from it. But I digress. Long-term oriented investors and speculators should be aware of the near term trends but they should also be aware of the conditions that will lead to a shift from a bear market to a bull market. Full Story
It is difficult to provide an update on something that hasn’t moved in months. Other than a spike higher on October 11, Gold has basically done nothing in the past three months. The current range remains 1214-1251. Many investors in the precious metals space have become extremely bullish recently, given the rally from 1167. But there is little reason for it, in my opinion. Nothing that drove the decline from 1369 has changed. So rather than focus on daily moves within the current range, let’s focus on the factors that could break us out of this range. Full Story
Now, with interest rates rising on that old debt, the cost of past mistakes may at last be exceeding the gains from new investment, pushing the marginal utility of debt to zero or below. If true, the party’s over. When new debt produces not just a low return but a negative one, a credit-addicted system is analogous to a heroin addict for whom the necessary dose is also a fatal one. Which doesn’t mean the addict won’t try. At some point in the coming year the world’s central banks will be forced back to the needle, with the Fed reversing its recent tightening and the ECB and BoJ ramping up their existing QE programs. The question is whether this next, biggest-ever liquidity injection will have the same effect as in the past, or a very different one. Full Story
The widely-held mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets are just wrapping up another blockbuster earnings season. Sales and profits soared largely due to Republicans’ massive corporate tax cuts. Still these lofty stock markets are vulnerable to serious downside, as October’s brutal plunge proved. Such extreme revenue and earnings growth cannot persist, and valuations remain in dangerous bubble territory. Full Story
The monthly statements of the BIS give only summary information on the bank's use of gold swaps and other gold-related derivatives. The information in the statements is not sufficient to calculate a precise amount of gold-related derivatives, including swaps. But, after subtracting the gold reported owned by the BIS itself, the bank's total estimated gold exposure as of October 31 was around 372 tonnes -- 134 tonnes, or 56 percent, greater than the approximately 238 tonnes as of September 30. Full Story
Housing prices and the associated REIT returns have worked very differently in the United States since the recession of 2001. The increasing financialization of the real estate markets by Wall Street, and the aggressive and unconventional interventions by the Federal Reserve over that time, have combined in multiplicative fashion to produce new and volatile sources of housing profits and losses. Full Story
“We are in a bond market bubble that’s beginning to unwind.” This is the statement of Alan Greenspan. Is he right? We invite you to read our today’s article about the US bond market and find out whether it is in bubble or not – and what does it all mean for the precious metals market. Full Story
The flow of institutional money into stocks is under such expert control these days that we shouldn’t doubt DaBoyz’ ability to manipulate the broad averages to new record highs regardless of economic headwinds. On days when the FAANGs are soft, which was the case on Thursday, the Dow is firm. Conversely, when the FAANGs are raging, the Indoos are often subdued. Full Story
All it would take for the DOJ to see the real market manipulation is to step back a bit and consider things in a slightly different perspective. Yes, by all means continue to go after the spoofers, but try to consider that spoofing is only a tool that enables a much deeper price manipulation run by JPMorgan. As much as I am trying to not to get my hopes up that the DOJ might stumble upon the real crime in silver and gold, I do confess to sensing a slight crack in the dike. Coupled with other things, like JPMorgan having now accumulated more physical silver and gold than I could ever have imagined a few short years ago and the incredible physical movement in and out of the COMEX-approved silver warehouses, it’s hard for me to see how there won’t be a resolution of the ongoing price manipulation in the immediate future. Full Story
Tonight I would like to update some of the charts we’ve been following for some of the SPX that had a wild October to say the least. For whatever reasons October has a lot of volatility which can lead to some important lows and in a few cases a crash which is rare. This past October shaped up similar to many of the previous Octobers we’ve seen since the bull market began in 2009. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
Hence, we could say that both parties won (or both lost). The biggest loser is the American politics and society. The country is highly polarized and split into two camps. It implies that politicians will be less capable of finding common ground. More divisions and less cooperation is a great recipe for lack of any reforms and drifting towards the crisis. Just think about the high level of public debt. If investors faith in US fiscal capacity diminishes, gold may shine. Full Story
Tuesday's elections produced some winners, some losers, some surprises, and some lingering uncertainties. For investors, the potential for a major shock to the markets was averted. But with Democrats poised to take control of Congress, new legislative threats to wealth holders loom on the horizon. Full Story
As contentious as the US midterm elections were, there was never a scenario in which they mattered. Any possible configuration of Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate would have yielded pretty much the same set of economic policies going forward: Ever-higher debt, upward trending interest rates and (through the combination of those two) rising volatility. Full Story
Starting today, the five-day festival known as Diwali—literally, “a row of lights”—will be observed by millions of Hindus, Sikhs and Jains worldwide. A celebration of good triumphing over evil, the festival typically coincides with the Hindu new year. Regular readers of Frank Talk should know that Diwali is also an auspicious time to buy gold coins and jewelry as gifts for loved ones, and in the past the increased demand has been enough to move gold prices to the upside. Full Story
A partial solution requires eliminating debt-based currencies, returning to honest money (backed by gold and silver), balancing budgets and dissolving central banks. Not likely! We live with financial insanity, dishonest money, and swamp creatures. BUY SILVER and appreciate the coming sunrise instead of being victimized by the predatory practices of government and central banking. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
How did that "exhaustive" investigation of the silver market by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission miss this? How will the World Gold Council and most monetary metals mining companies continue to miss it? How many more anti-trust lawsuits will this prompt? Anybody seen Blythe Masters lately? Full Story
Let's begin by noting why and how this year got sideways on us. We were on the record stating that COMEX gold would break out of its 5-year "bowl" pattern by late 2018. Why did we think this? See the chart below from early March. While it appeared that a temporary breakdown was possible, everything looked on track for a move to the high 1300s by late in the year. Full Story
The US elections are over and since the markets were not surprised by their outcome, there was no significant reaction. It seems that the markets can now return to their previous trends. But… the USD Index is down significantly today, while gold and silver are rallying. Does it mean that the trend in the precious metals is currently up? Full Story
One of my biggest predictions for the fall of 2018 was that a US stock market sell-off would see gold and gold stocks begin to function as the ultimate safe haven. That happened exactly on cue, and to get an idea of how mainstream media is beginning to open their eyes to this theme, please click here now. Bloomberg Intelligence is highly respected by the global institutional investor community. Full Story
Gold is the metal of kings, the ultimate money, an eternal store of value, an untarnishable embodiment of beauty. Gold is all those things. But it is not the most valuable metal you can own on a cost-per-ounce basis. Often, platinum commands a higher price than gold. Lately, platinum has traded at an abnormally large discount to the yellow metal. Full Story
Today, Americans are choosing new members of Congress. Will there be a blue wave? Or maybe red? Some people say that hot economy will help Republicans – is that true? Let’s read out today’s article about the latest US nonfarm payrolls and find out how could they affect the mid-term elections and the gold market. Full Story
The world is more fragile today than it was in 2007. That’s the opinion of former derivatives trader Nassim Taleb, whose bestseller, The Black Swan, is about how people make sense of unexpected events, especially in financial markets. True to form, he made a whole lot of money after predicting the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Full Story
Democrat and Republican leadership both adore the Fed for enabling them to perpetually spend way beyond their means. Candidates instinctively know better than to seriously rock the boat. That includes Republicans who are more concerned with reassuring voters they will protect entitlements and key programs like military spending. Full Story
No one has ever claimed that we are perma-bulls. “Perma-bear” and “gold bug” are words that we have been referred to as. Unfortunately, history is littered with financial crises, recessions, and depressions accompanied by stock market crashes of 50% or more. Since 1970, there have been 15 stock market declines for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) of 14% or more. That’s roughly a decline every three years. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was platinum, up 4.29 percent as hedge funds cut their bearish platinum view to the lowest in seven months. Gold ended October with a gain for the first month in seven. The Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Global Senior Gold Valuation Peer Group Index is headed for its biggest monthly increase since August 2017, reports Bloomberg. Traders and analysts in the weekly Bloomberg survey are mixed on the gold price outlook this week amid uncertainty of how U.S. midterm elections will affect markets. Full Story
There has been a lot of media coverage recently about the re-emergence of central bank gold buying and the overall larger quantity of gold than central banks as a group have been buying recently compared to previous years. For example, according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends for Q3 2018, net purchases of gold by central banks in the third quarter of this year were 22% higher than Q3 2017, and the highest quarterly level since Q4 of 2015. Full Story
Starting with the long-term 10-year chart for gold, we see that it is now approaching completion of a more or less symmetrical complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom, with multiple shoulders. It is now believed to be rising up to complete the final Right Shoulder, which should be followed by a breakout above the resistance at the top of the pattern, which will be a positive technical development of huge significance. Full Story
The gold community wants to believe it, because that means that gold will go up. To $10,000 or as that speaker at FreedomFest 2017 confidently predicted: $65,000. Everyone with a few gold Eagles in his sock drawer will be rich. And those who put a few hundred thousand bucks into gold will be Seriously Rich. A real Fat Cat! Like with Ferraris, and chauffeur-driven Rolls Royces, and everything. Full Story
Summing up, the outlook remains strongly bearish for the precious metals sector and the fact that PMs are not yet responding to USD’s strength doesn’t invalidate it. The current back and forth trading is tiring, and/or boring depending on one’s perspective (tiring from the short-term one, and boring from the long-term one), but it’s very likely that the patience here will be well rewarded. Silver’s outperformance and miners’ underperformance suggests that we will likely not have to wait much longer. Full Story
So, I heard that good news is now bad news and bad news is now good news in the market. Or was that bad news is bad news and good news is bad news? Or, was that bad news is bad news and good news is good news? To be honest, I just can’t keep up with all the convoluted ways people try to explain how to view the market based upon news. And, it changes all the time. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors returns with his latest market insights. The new trade tariffs. Tariffs on Canadian lumber this January pushed the mean new home price higher by over 10% as a direct result. Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Institute returns from the first World Series game (Boston 2018 Champs 4-1) with his latest PMs investing insights. Our guest outlines must hear methods for purchasing PMs, including an opportunity to profit market anomalies. Full Story
This system is really a policy of suppressing all commodity prices comprehensively, through the shorting of commodities in the futures markets, creating a vast imaginary supply of commodities, thereby supporting Western government currencies, government bonds, and other financial assets. This system has destroyed the free and transparent markets the West purports to advocate. It is also exploiting and impoverishing the commodity-producing developing world. Full Story
All good things come to an end, even economic growth cycles. The present one is getting long in the tooth. While it doesn’t have to end now, it will end eventually. Signs increasingly suggest we are approaching that point. Whenever it happens, the next downturn will hit millions who still haven’t recovered from the last recession, millions more who did recover but forgot how bad it was, and millions more who reached adulthood during the boom. They saw it as children or teens but didn’t feel the full impact. Now, with their own jobs and families, they will. Full Story
Since the capital market pricing mechanism has been perverted not just here but pretty much everywhere, it’s safe to assume that the amount of misallocated capital in the world is at a record high. Which means the failures when they come will be many, varied, and huge. Hedge funds, viewed this way, are canaries in the financial coal mine, their failures pointing towards much bigger ones to come. Full Story
Now, we gold bugs often need moderators, so know that the above is a slow moving monthly chart, we are in the heart of tax loss selling season with yet another losing year for gold stocks (as a whole, some quality operations did just fine) wrapping up. So this post is not implying people should run out and scoop ’em up hastily. I am personally trying to position with patience while trading around the shorter-terms. Full Story
The concept of 'retirement', of enjoying decades of work-free leisure in your golden years, is a relatively new construct. It's only been around for a few generations. In fact, the current version of the relaxed, golfing/RV-touring/country club retirement lifestyle only came into being in the post-WW2 boom era -- as Social Security, corporate and government pensions, cheap and plentiful energy, and extended lifespans made it possible for the masses. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
Writing in the October edition of The Alchemist, the magazine of the London Bullion Market Association, former French central bank official Isabelle Strauss-Kahn acknowledges that central bank officials notice and are sensitive to complaints that they are manipulating the gold market. She also claims that central bank operations in the gold market have become more transparent, as if she doesn't know how secretive those operations remain, even at her own former employer. Full Story
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