For the past year and longer, financial-market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate policies have been the single-most important determinant of day-to-day fluctuations in the price of gold. Indeed, the persistent widespread belief that the Fed would soon start weaning the markets off near-zero interest rates, however wrong, has weighed heavily on gold prices while fueling bubble-like conditions in many other asset markets – most notably equities, long-term bonds, the U.S. dollar, New York apartment prices, collectibles of all sorts, etc. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 9 October, 2015
The left-for-dead gold stocks have rallied dramatically this past week, surging to a major breakout. This pivotal technical event reveals the hyper-bearish psychology plaguing this sector in recent months is dissipating, paving the way for investment capital to return. And given the fundamentally-absurd price levels in this battered sector, this new gold-stock buying is likely just the initial vanguard of a massive new upleg. Full Story
Master speculator and economic expert Doug Casey believes a global financial crisis is just around the corner, which will result in what he has termed the “Greater Depression”... This essay originally appeared in The Casey Report. In it, Doug details a hidden but powerful force known as the “deep state” that’s ruining the country. Whether you agree with his views or not, I’m sure this will be one of the most educational - and most entertaining - pieces you read this year... Full Story
I was going to give you this big macro rundown of what happened since the payroll number, but I changed my mind. Anybody can give you the play-by-play. Let’s talk about it in the context of true contrarian investing. Being contrarian doesn’t just mean doing the opposite of what everyone else is doing. It means doing what is really unpopular and may make you subject to ridicule. Full Story
The status quo exists because it works well for the major players. Their profits are large enough to cover fines, multiple payoffs, and houses in the Hamptons. The majority of profits come, I suspect, from packaging and selling paper – stocks and bonds. But it is important that gold and silver prices remain low since rallying gold prices indicate something is wrong on planet fiat and will create anxiety that the Fed and other central banks are abusing their printing currencies privilege. Weak gold prices encourage a strong dollar and lower interest rates. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, - he's double short the market bounce, in anticipation of continued volatility. Arch likes the PMs, noting that tight supply conditions could help bring about a renaissance in the sector He is accumulating silver in his personal stockpile. Arch Crawford thinks the rebound rally is merely a bounce. Full Story
Global business activity is slowing down and the majority of the developing nations are experiencing severe economic problems. Over in the developed world, Japan is contracting again, Euro zone is barely growing and even America’s leading economic indicators are suggesting trouble ahead. Elsewhere, the CRB Index is trading at a 13-year low and this implosion in the prices of commodities is suggesting that all is not well with the global economy. Full Story
There are a few analyses making rounds on the internet about gold owned by the People’s Bank Of China (PBOC). I’m always interested in these analyses, as I like to be aware of all knowledge available on this subject, but I rarely agree with them. The big questions that remain in the gold space are, (i) how much gold does the PBOC truly have, (ii) how and where is this gold stored, (iii) how much of the imported (non-monetary) gold ended up at the PBOC or at the private sector. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Henry Blodget - 9 October, 2015
I remember the first time I walked into Henry Blodget’s new startup, Business Insider, back in 2009. Twelve fresh-faced kids were crammed into a room about the size of my bedroom, pounding away on laptops, creating a new destination website. He took me over to a corner; we sat down in front of a few cameras; and he began shooting question after question at me, later turning the session into a series of interviews. Full Story
Once upon a time, in the good old days, before QE changed everything, any signs of strength from copper could be construed as a sign that the economy was on the mend. After QE, this story came to an end, and a new reality came into play. The Fed manipulated the markets in favour of short-term gains through what could be determined as borderline illegal monetary policy; a policy that has maintained an ultra-low interest rate environment that favours speculators and punishes savers. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 8 October, 2015
Peter Boehringer, leader of the campaign to repatriate Germany's national gold reserves, today brilliantly dismantles the Bundesbank's claim yesterday to have accounted for those reserves. First, Boehringer writes, the Bundesbank has provided not a list of gold bars by producer and serial number but rather a mere inventory list maintained by the foreign central banks vaulting the German gold, a list created by those central banks themselves for gold that may or may not exist or remain in hand. Full Story
When looking over these data points, the first thing that jumps out at the viewer is that the vast bulk of “money” in the system is in the form of digital loans or credit (non-physical debt). Put another way, actual physical money or cash (as in bills or coins you can hold in your hand) comprises less than 1% of the “money” in the financial system. Full Story
Frequent followers of the German public campaign “Repatriate our Gold“ already know how intensively we have been struggling since 2011 (and longer) with Deutsche Bundesbank to finally – after more than 50 years of external storage of Germany’s gold – get credible transparency regarding this matter. Some progress was brought about recently (2012 disclosure of the whereabouts of Germany´s gold by BuBa; 2013 partial repatriation plan announced by BuBa; 2013 and ongoing through 2015 alleged physical repatriation of approximately 200 tons to date – equaling approximately 10% of Germany’s gold abroad). But real proof and transparency is still lacking from Bundesbank’s side! Full Story
In this bombshell interview Matt Drudge surprises the crew and Alex Jones breaking down the biggest stories with the incisive insight that only he can bring. Full Story
There’s a meme going around that the refugee crisis in Europe (the largest since World War II) is part of a secret plot to subvert the West. I completely understand why the locals in any country wouldn’t be happy about waves of foreigners pouring in. Especially if they’re poor, unskilled, and not likely to assimilate. Full Story
For our global investigation how much physical gold central banks have stored at what location and how much is leased out, I decided to submit the local equivalent of a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request at the central bank of Belgium, de Nationale Bank van België (NBB), to obtain information about the amount of Belgian official gold reserves, the exact location of all gold bars, the type of gold accounts NBB holds at the Bank Of England (BOE) and how much is leased out and to whom. The outcome of this research was not what I had expected. Full Story
Hard times have once again befallen Deutsche Bank, which played a key role in blowing the global mortgage bubble that popped eight years ago. On Wednesday, the bank announced a $7 billion loss for Q3 and a dividend cut, sending shares plummeting by 6% on the NYSE. The long-term chart (see inset) suggests the stock is likely to fall a further 68%, to at least 9.10, before the carnage ends. If that price is hit, it would represent a 94% decline from the record-high 158 recorded in 2007. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 7 October, 2015
Lots of publicity today about the German Bundesbank's publication of a list of the bars in Germany's gold reserves in an effort to dispel suspicions that the metal is impaired in some way. The definitive report is, not surprisingly, that of gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen, who details the history of the German gold controversy and notes that the Bundesbank's list omits crucial information and so really doesn't settle the issue at all. Full Story
What gold and silver investors want to know above all is when the bull market will resume. In a very real sense, it already has resumed. Futures market prices aside, evidence abounds that a raging bull market in physical precious metals is now underway. Full Story
For many years now, it’s been clear that China would soon be pull¬ing the strings in the U.S. financial system. In 2015, the American people owe the Chinese government nearly $1.5 trillion. I know big numbers don’t mean much to most people, but keep in mind… this tab is now hundreds of billions of dollars more than what the U.S. government collects in ALL income taxes (both cor¬porate and individual) each year. It’s basically a sum we can never, ever hope to repay – at least, not by normal means. Full Story
Countries that are smaller in size, but that have big debt loads, would stand out more. If we used debt-to-GDP as scaling criteria, Japan would become the largest country on our new map. Japan holds 19.99% of all global debt despite only having about 6% of the world’s economic production. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 230%. Full Story
The central bank of Germany, the Bundesbank, has published the bar list of all German official gold reserves stored in Frankfurt am Main, London, Paris and New York. The list contains the bar numbers, melt or inventory numbers, the gross and fine weight as well as the fineness of the gold. German official gold reserves account for 3,384 tonnes and is the second largest after the US. Full Story
Now, I acknowledge that it is possible to concoct definitions of money that lead to the conclusion that gold is money, but such definitions either aren’t practical, or are focused on a characteristic of gold that is shared by some obviously non-monetary assets, or are simply wrong. Full Story
Since 2011, it has been quite clear that the metals have been in a downtrend, while equity markets have been in an uptrend. But, over the last several months, I have mentioned in our Trading Room that I think we may see a paradigm shift soon, as I believe that they may begin to rally together as the stock market moves up in its next rally phase over 2300. So, I have been looking for clues that such alignment may be developing. This past week may have provided additional clues and the upcoming two weeks may solidify this new paradigm. Full Story
Two persistent myths convince gold bears that the price of gold will remain low – a looming series of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the fact that gold did not rally during the last round of quantitative easing. Peter Schiff explains why both of these myths are ready to die following Friday’s terrible job report. The silver price surged significantly higher on Friday’s news, and Peter thinks it won’t be long before gold also breaks out of its trading range. Investors are quickly running out of time to take advantage of these low prices. Full Story
Of course we can point to many other bad and good choices over the past 45 years. Buying gold in early January 1980 and for much of the next 19 years was probably a bad choice, so do your own research to make good choices. While trading paper currencies for gold is, in my opinion, currently a good exchange, it is not always a good choice. Full Story
Debt is at the root of money creation in this debt-based monetary system. In fact, as the name suggests, money is debt in this system. Historically, instead of debt as money, there would have been gold or silver. Gold is still somehow linked to the monetary system, albeit in a very small way, as can be seen by the fact that many central banks own gold as part of their reserves. Silver, on the other hand, has been completely eliminated from the monetary system. Full Story
Since 1979, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has annually published its Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), which, as you can probably guess, ranks the competitiveness of nations for which the group is able to gather sufficient data. This year, the WEF ranks 140 economies—from Switzerland to Guinea. Full Story
Don’t worry, though. Transportation stocks still have a long ways to fall, so it’s not too late to sell any trucking, shipping, or railroad stock you may own—or profit from their continued fall through shorting, put options, or inverse ETFs. This chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Average validates my negative outlook on all things transportation and shows why we’ve been so successful betting against the “movers” of the US economy. Full Story
When combined with rate cuts, QE becomes a deadly deflationary cocktail. Banks have no incentive to make loans, and T-bonds become the asset of choice. The T-bond money is squandered by governments, and money velocity implodes. The bottom line is that bank and government wealth is inflated by QE, and the wealth of the average person is massively deflated. “QE to infinity” is better described as “deflation to infinity”. Full Story
Gold just had its worst quarterly loss in a year at the close of the third quarter, and close to its worst weekly loss since March. However, the shortfall in the jobs numbers on Friday was a sentiment changer on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October or December. Earlier in the week Janet Yellen gave a speech reiterating the Fed’s intention to raise interest rates this year. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 6 October, 2015
The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. A deep bench of excuses, ranging from the weather to the Chinese economy, has been called on to justify why the economy hasn't built up any noticeable steam, and why the Fed has failed to move rates off zero, where they have been for seven years. Full Story
Just when you think you know something, you revisit another chart(s), which is always a good idea if you are a good (thorough) technician. That’s what happened to me this passed week. You will remember we said last Monday we thought that stocks would rally off the Fed meeting because that’s what they are all about – creating tension to force stupid shorts to cover – to be followed by another plunge, possibly leading to something very nasty as we work into October. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 6 October, 2015
According to the mostly recently released data, the disconnect in the silver market continues. Now, when I say a disconnect, I am referring to the interesting change in supply demand trends in the silver market. Currently, we are witnessing an abrupt change in normal silver market dynamics. Full Story
Take a look at the "paper price" of gold and silver and then go and try to buy the precious metal from your bullion dealer for that price. What will you see? You will quickly realize that the paper price and the physical price are drastically different. Full Story
The Fed missed its chance. Truth be told, the Fed should have raised rates in 2011 or 2012. Even if the Fed had an excuse not to at those times, it should have hiked them in April 2014, when we hit its unemployment rate target of 6.5% (assuming this number is correct). Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 5 October, 2015
GoldCore's O'Byrne notes that market rigging by central banks is "a charge for which we and others have been ridiculed for making in the past." So is Plender angling for a tinfoil hat? Would the FT permit him to wear it? Would the FT ever dare to commit actual journalism about surreptitious central bank intervention in the markets, including the gold market? Full Story
This view comes off as repugnant to much of the gold “community”, but I cannot stress strongly enough how important it is to tune out the fairy stories about missing COMEX gold (and silver), love-inspired demand from China and India, ‘rising US employment drives interest rates, incentivizes banks to lend and creates inflation, driving people into gold and gold stocks’ or any other angle out there that does not focus on declining confidence in policy making and its ability to control economies and financial markets. Every single one of these supposed fundamentals have already been proven wrong. Full Story
To ask the obvious, what if Mr. Putin, joined and backed by the Chinese were to come out with "proof" of U.S. dirty doings at the same time he pushes further militarily in the Middle East, Ukraine, or politically in the Koreas, Europe or elsewhere? Will the American people remain asleep or will they finally wake up and say "NO MORE!"? This is a very important question because I do believe the American people still, deep down have a sense of right and wrong even if our leaders do not. Will the populace suddenly lose the stomach to support global bullying tactics because the release of a "truth bomb"? Full Story
Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., returns with commentary on the latest FOMC rate decision. Fed officials have no intentions of hiking rates in 2015, despite the hawkish rhetoric making the media reports. Chris welcomes back to the show, Bill Murphy from GATA.org. The discussion includes Nassim Taleb's latest work, AntiFragile, free PDF link listed below. Due to Fed intervention, risk was removed from the markets, that is until recently. Full Story
Let's wait to see if October and/or November play out as expected before making any further predictions and forecasts. However, as a preview, here's a reprint of the chart that accompanied the original post last month. Note that the previous bear markets each saw drops in the S&P of greater than 50%. If history does, in fact, repeat itself in late 2015 and early 2016, we'll be looking at a drop in the S&P 500 back toward 1,100 or even 1,000. Do you see now why we caution equity investors everywhere to proceed with extreme caution? Full Story
I think it’s pretty much a given that we’re in for a cyclical bear market in the coming quarters. The question is, will it be 1998 or 2001/2007? Will the recovery look V-shaped, or will it drag out? Remember, there is always a recovery. But at the same time, there is always a recession out in front of us; and that fact of life is what makes for long and difficult recoveries, not to mention very deep bear markets. Full Story
What all this implies then is that gold is either at or very close to a major bottom here, and furthermore if this is the case, then the Precious Metals sector, which is now extraordinarily undervalued relative to gold, has huge upside potential from its current dismally low levels. This is a reason that we went for the sector on Thursday when it was hard down on an important support level affording a low risk entry setup, and we will be devoting more and more attention to it on the site going forward. Full Story
Lets get right to the charts today as there is so much to cover. Starting with the daily gold chart you can see the blue triangle pattern we’ve been watching now for several weeks or so. Last Thursday gold closed right on the bottom rail which I knew was an inflection point where it could go either way. When I went to bed Thursday night I knew Friday was going to be either a very good day or a very bad day depending on what gold did in the morning. Full Story
As most of you probably know the largest rallies occur during bear markets. They tend to be very aggressive and powerful. This is how one can tell the difference between a countertrend rally in a bear market and a rally in a new bull market. I’m going to suggest that the gold market is no longer acting like the typical bear market. Let me explain. Full Story
Lately one cynic after another, some of which claim to be experts are all marching to the same drumbeat. The Chinese economy is in trouble; the Chinese markets are going to continue crashing. The Shanghai index experienced an astounding advance over a brief period of time and so it should not have come as a surprise that such a stupendous rally would culminate with an equally brutal correction. The Doctors of gloom and doom are over doing it and this was our recent response to our subscribers. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 5 October, 2015
If there’s one chart silver investors need to see, it’s the INDIA vs COMEX chart. This chart puts into perspective just how little Registered silver remains at the Comex warehouses. In addition, Comex Registered silver inventories continue to fall as two large transfers were reported over the past two days. Full Story
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