Over the past two weeks the precious metals complex has retested its Brexit breakout and rebounded back to the July highs. Today’s jobs report has pushed the complex lower but has delivered an opportunity to cash heavy portfolios which have missed the bulk of the move. With that said, we wanted to share our current analog charts for Gold, gold stocks and junior gold stocks which suggest continued upside potential in the sector. Full Story
Monetary policy, we are told, is all about staving off recession and stimulating economic growth. However, not only is monetary debasement in any form counterproductive and destroys the personal wealth of the masses, but the economists who devised today’s monetarism have completely lost their way. This article addresses the confusion surrounding this subject, and concludes the real reason for today’s global monetary policies is an ultimately futile attempt to prevent a systemic and economic crisis. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 5 August, 2016
The gold miners’ stocks have already enjoyed a phenomenal year, blasting higher with gold’s new bull market. This sector’s market-dominating performance has been amazing. Yet incredibly, the gold stocks are only now entering their strongest time of the year seasonally. Historically during bull-market years the gold stocks have enjoyed massive autumn rallies on average, starting right about now which is very bullish. Full Story
The masses do not believe this market can trend higher; sentiment is decidedly negative, and this has been confirmed time and time again. For months on end investors in the neutral or bearish camp have ranked higher than those in the bullish camp. What is surprising is that the higher this market trends, the more anxious the masses become. In a nutshell, that is precisely why this market will continue to run higher and higher. Full Story
Since 2015 I’ve stated the raw data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on gold export to China mainland do not accurately reflect what is imported by China from the land of down under. In my previous post I’ve written Australia’s gold “export to China” should be adjusted by Hong Kong’s gold “import from Australia” as a substantial amount of gold Australia declares to export to China is in fact travelling through Hong Kong. A written statement from ABS now supports this analysis. Full Story
To better understand the consequences of the British referendum it is necessary to figure out the reasons behind the Brexit vote. We all know that David Cameron organized the plebiscite just to resolve internal disputes and end the divisions within the Conservative Party. He counted on Britons voting to “remain”, which would silence the anti-EU Tories. But as we know, he tragically miscalculated the odds. Why did Britain vote to leave the EU? Well, many factors contributed to this complex decision/issue. Full Story
You’re familiar with the children’s game of musical chairs. Ten children walk around nine chairs whilst listening to music. When the music stops, each must quickly find a chair and sit in it. One child is out of luck and is out of the game. Then a chair is removed and the nine remaining children walk around the eight remaining chairs, waiting for the music to stop again. Full Story
There should be enough time in this daily cycle for the Nasdaq to complete a full test of the all-time highs at 5231 before the next drop down into a daily cycle low. Again, let me stress not to read anything into the impending correction. It’s just going to be a run of the mill correction. They tend to happen like clockwork about every 35-45 days. Full Story
Be it failing monetary policies, war, deflation or what have you, it appears that gold has made a low that I don’t expect to be challenged for a very long period of time. Certainly not in the next couple of years if I am correct in my analysis. The one kicker that I did not discuss was inflation. Given it doesn’t exist in most western economies, why spend time on it. However, when it does kick in, it will be another bullish element for gold bulls to munch on. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 4 August, 2016
On June 23rd, despite months of fear mongering by former Prime Minister David Cameron and his allies, doomsday global economic forecasts offered by the International Monetary Fund and the Obama Administration, and a steady drumbeat of anti-Brexit news stories by the BBC, The Economist and the Financial Times, the British people delivered an unexpected event to the global financial system by voting to take Britain out of the European Union. Despite the forecasts of doom and gloom, the people voted for freedom, democracy and common law. Full Story
In part, the declining growth rate in GDP could be because it is harder to get as large of a percentage increase as GDP gets larger. (In the sense that it is easier to double your speed at ten miles per hour than it is at fifty miles per hour.) However, I think it also reflects how, as US national debt has piled up, its ability to achieve growth has significantly diminished because of all the ballast it is carrying. The fact that it has taken enormously greater stimulus to achieve these steeply diminishing returns indicates the severe drag created by this ballast. Full Story
The student debt crisis is only a crisis because gullible parents are supporting spoilt brats, and allowing them to believe they are the chosen ones, when in fact, they are not. This debt problem like most of America’s debt problems comes down to mismanagement of finances. One should not live like a king on a soldier’s salary. When someone has to work for something they appreciate and value it, when they are given handouts, they show no appreciation and demand twice as much. Full Story
Peter Eliades agrees with the host; gold represents real wealth, "An ounce of gold historically always purchases a first rate business suit." Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, returns to the show with insights for every investor - it may be time to reevaluate portfolio weighting. From a technical / cyclical vantage point, a key zenith appears to be nearing for US shares. Full Story
There’s much to discuss, as I write Thursday morning; starting with the “powers that be’s”’ utter desperation – particularly, the gold Cartel – to stave off “Economic Mother Nature” and the “unstoppable tsunami of reality” as the end game plays out right of its eyes. For example, just two days after the Monte Paschi “bailout” – that in actuality, won’t occur until year-end, if it can raise €5 billion of equity, and sell €9 billion of bad loans – European stocks are dramatically lower; including Unicredit, Italy’s largest bank, which has plunged nearly 20%; and Deutsche Bank, the “world’s most systematically dangerous institution” – which touched its all-time low stock price yesterday morning, before the PPT pushed it oh so slightly higher (and as I write, it’s plunging towards said “death level” of $12.50/share anew). In my view, we are at most a few weeks before the real panic sets in. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 4 August, 2016
One way Saville could test his confidence that the Fed isn't involved, directly or indirectly, with index futures or ETFs would be to try to attend a meeting of its Board of Governors or Federal Open Market Committee. Of course anyone who did that would be arrested, but maybe something like that would be the only antidote to Saville's credulity -- if it is credulity and not just another contrived defense of financial newsletters that provide technical analysis of markets that were commandeered by the government long ago. Full Story
It goes without question, among economists of the central planning mindset, that if a central bank can just set the right quantity of dollars[1], then the price level, GDP, unemployment, and everything else will be right at the Goldilocks Optimum. One such approach that has become popular in recent years is nominal GDP targeting. Full Story
This year marks the 101st anniversary of Andrew Jackson rolling over and over in his grave. Back in 1915, the brand new Federal Reserve pasted the 7th President's likeness on its first $10 debt note – a sharp slap to the President who fought and won his famously bitter battle to destroy the “corrupting monster” of central banking. Full Story
Well, well, well. Something incredibly strange is afoot. What exactly is happening is the million dollar question. Regardless of what it is, a shift has occurred that has shocked many in the precious metals community and has others scratching their heads in confusion. Everyone knows that the West has been bleeding gold for decades, especially the United States, which has systematically been selling their citizen's true wealth and hollowing out the foundation of their financial system. Yet, a massive and dramatic shift has occurred. A massive amount of gold is flowing BACK towards the United States. Full Story
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s acceptance as Republican and Democratic parties’ nominees for President sets the stage for the contest to begin in earnest. Both Trump, who is 70, and Clinton, who is 68, were born in the post-war Baby Boom era. So were their vice-presidential back-ups, Mike Pence and Tim Kaine, as well as all U.S. presidents since Bill Clinton. Full Story
Sometimes a market that is overbought can remain that way for longer than anyone anticipated. Remember the ‘Dotcom’ bull market of the 1990s? It became overbought and kept on rising for many months. By comparison, gold, silver and mining stocks represent tangible value, not a concept of something ‘that might be’, or something ‘that may catch on’. Is it possible that gold, silver and mining stocks are entering an investment phase that is similar to the ‘dotcom’ investment phase of the 1990s? If the answer is ‘yes’, then we must be prepared for some lofty targets and wide swings. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 3 August, 2016
The answer to the above question is yes and no. If the question is does the Fed use the combination of monetary policy and ‘jawboning’ in an effort to push equity prices upward then the answer is definitely yes. However, if the question is does the Fed buy index futures or ETFs in an effort to elevate the stock market then the answer is almost certainly no. Full Story
Yet even with a gain of nearly 30% this year, we suspect the current rally in gold will eventually break its cycle high (more than 40% away) of $1924 an ounce, achieved in September 2011. For silver bulls, the gains have been even more exceptional, tacking on more than 49% from last year’s close. With a cycle high of nearly $50 an ounce in the spring of 2011, the prospects for silver are proportionally much larger – albeit with greater volatility and risks. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 3 August, 2016
The financial news Internet site Value Walk reported today that JPMorganChase's quantitative and derivatives strategy chief, Marko Kolanovic, this week issued a report asserting that the rise in stock markets after the United Kingdom's vote to withdraw from the European Union was caused by central bank intervention. Full Story
In Elliott Wave parlance, 3rd waves are the segment of a trend move which provides the strongest market action. This is why we are always on the “lookout” for the set-ups for 3rd waves. Whereas silver has already seen the heart of a 3rd several weeks ago, we now may be setting up for one in the GDX and GLD. Full Story
In a July 11 BullionStar article, “SPDR Gold Trust gold bars at the Bank of England vaults”, I highlighted that the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), in it’s Q1 2016 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), disclosed that during the January – March 2016 quarter, the GLD custodian HSBC had employed the Bank of England as a sub-custodian to hold some of the Trust’s gold bars, and that the largest quantity of gold that the Bank of England had held on behalf of GLD during the January – March 2016 period was 29 tonnes. Full Story
Gold also walks the walk, because its grandeur is backed up by impressive chemical properties and uses. As we documented in our extensive Gold Series, it’s been used as a monetary metal for thousands of years by ancient civilizations such as the Lydians, Greeks, Chinese, and Romans. It’s the most malleable and ductile metal, and it doesn’t tarnish or corrode. Over time, these properties have helped people to associate gold with concepts such as immortality or royalty. Full Story
The US government could face a sovereign bond crisis if Janet Yellen hikes rates in a material way, but wage pressures and entitlements spending are growing while corporate earnings growth is stagnant. That’s a deadly recipe for a “stagflationary firestorm.” Each strong jobs report that is met with no interest rate hike from Janet convinces more institutional money managers that inflation is on the horizon, and so they buy undervalued gold stocks relentlessly. Full Story
Many hedge fund managers, including some who previously hated gold, are looking in consternation at inflated stock prices and epic low yields in the bond market and saying, why not? At least gold and silver are among the best performing assets of the year, and prices are still nowhere near all-time highs like bonds and equities. There is certainly nothing wrong with bargain hunting. Bullion investors just need to remember that when prices are in an uptrend, finding a bargain means not waiting too long to buy. Full Story
Not only do bankers and politicians want control over your wealth, they also want control over the price of gold in the market. Gold competes with all other debt based fiat currencies, and banks, central banks, and governments promote and depend upon those fiat currencies. They don’t want gold – a competing currency – attracting attention away from their heavily controlled fiat currencies. But central banks have only so much influence. In Japan the people are realizing they need gold, thanks to current central bank policies. “Precious metals markets have clearly turned the corner.” Full Story
At first glance, it would appear that the current bull market outperformed the 70s one. However, it only took about five years (1970 to 1975) to get the 458% increase, compared to the roughly ten years and five months it took to get the 661% increase. If the performance of the current bull market actually matched that of the 70s, then prices should have risen about 1000%. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 2 August, 2016
Some commentators have been anticipating a “commercial signal failure” in the gold market for more than 15 years. Moreover, whenever the gold price experiences a large rally the same commentators routinely cite the potential for a commercial signal failure (CSF) as a reason to maintain a full position, the argument being that the coming CSF is bound to result in massive additional price gains. The reality, however, is that whereas a CSF is an extremely unlikely event in any commodity market, in the gold market it is an impossibility. Full Story
It occurred to us as we were laying out the contents of this article that we should probably not assume certain things. This publication has a wide readership, from corporate CEOs to high school students. The former are looking for analysis, the latter to become educated. The topic we are going to tackle in this second installment is a complex one, so some introduction is in order. Therefore, this piece will consist of two parts: an opening introduction, a primer if you will, then the analysis will follow. If you are well-versed in interest rates, bonds, bond yields, and debt, you can probably skip the primer, although we’ve been surprised at the number of people who have subscribed to the misconceptions stated therein. Full Story
Oil today plunged quickly below $40 per barrel, taking oil prices down more than 20% from their high a little over a month ago. That officially defines a bear market in oil. As of today, oil has also moved below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. July has again turned out to be a huge disappointment for oil producers who mistakenly thought price recovery had come to stay. Full Story
Negative bond yields have also boosted demand for gold, which has had two of the most spectacular quarters in modern history. Although it doesn’t provide any income, the yellow metal has been treasured as an exceptional store of value, especially in times of political and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold stocks are up more than 115 percent year-to-date, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and Swiss financial services firm UBS puts gold prices near $1,400 by year’s end. Full Story
It’s the same around the world, with European, Japanese and Chinese numbers coming in below (already lowered) expectations. The implication? Interest rates in major countries will either remain extremely low or fall further from here. With $11 trillion of government bonds already trading with negative yields, that’s an historically unprecedented prospect. Full Story
The mainstream news sources seem determined to ignore the extent of the global slowdown in trade. Whether exports, imports, industrial production or whatever your preferrred metric, the facts are undeniable. Nevertheless, the mainstream media chooses to refuse to cover it. It begs an obvious question of - why? Full Story
We are truly in a brave new world my friend...off the map and into the region marked "beyond which be dragons". These historical anomalies in Comex "delivery" are just another datapoint that signals extreme, global demand for gold in all its current forms. Our hope here at TFMR is that, one day soon, the entire Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme will finally collapse as delivery demands simply overwhelm the Bullion Banks' ability to supply physical gold on a just-in-time basis to an insatiably hungry investment world. Full Story
Any Rodney Dangerfield fans in the crowd? Certainly couldn’t blame you, as he was hilarious. He was king of the one-liners, with the “I don’t get no respect” routines perhaps his best-known repartee. But his genius didn’t end there. For our purposes today, I would like to borrow another of his famous catch phrases from the movie Easy Money, that being “it’s not easy bein me”. In this case however, the punch line is not so funny – not funny at all. Because it’s becoming increasingly difficult just to survive in this crazy world today with all the psychopaths running around attempting to exploit anything and everything that moves, where all to often these are the people ‘in charge’. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum, up 6.11 percent and finishing the month up 11 percent. Palladium, however, was even stronger, surging 17 percent for the month. Both metals have benefited from better auto sales in China and concerns over potential labor strikes in South Africa. Full Story
It’s early Monday, and fear is in the air, even if the PPT has “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” futures slightly higher. Last week, the “Fed might raise rates” meme died on the vine – first Wednesday, when the Fed, like a deer in headlights, noted nothing other than it’s perpetual “data dependence; with the “death blow” coming Friday, with possibly the worst GDP “miss” in U.S. history. Full Story
By: Mike Gleason and Michael Rivero - 1 August, 2016
Well I'm sure you've been enjoying all of the political theater like we have these last couple of weeks and I'll start off by getting your comments on the silly season that is now fully upon us. We had the Republican Convention last week and now the Democrat Convention. It's certainly provided some fabulous entertainment. There's never been candidates or campaigns quite like what we have this year. What are some of the key takeaways between, let's say, what we saw last week in Cleveland versus what we're seeing this week in Philadelphia, Michael? Full Story
It’s entirely uncontroversial that the dollar is not a stable store or measure of value. Heck, its manager the Federal Reserve, has set a policy of 2% annual declines in their paper. Unfortunately (for them), they are not getting the rising trend of consumer prices that they want. So why would anyone insist on measuring the value of gold—which has been precious for thousands of years—by reference to a dollar that’s designed to go down? Would you measure the height of the lighthouse by reference to deck of your sinking ship? Full Story
Over the years, we’ve featured the investment ideas of our friend Doug Behnfield often enough that longtime readers will understand why we consider him the smartest guy we know. The Boulder-based financial advisor’s most recent letter to clients, dated July 6, is of particular interest and is reprinted below with his kind permission. It suggests that it is time for investors who have accumulated steady gains in long-term bonds since inflation peaked in 1981 to begin thinking about alternatives, particularly stocks that would look quite attractive if they were to fall hard in a bear market. Full Story
•Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors returns with comments on global equities indexes. •Policymakers are purportedly moving heaven and earth to prop up shares. Case in point. •Economic Emperor, Shinzo Abe's regime is holding rates in negative territory, adding to the $13 trillions in total negative debt, worldwide. • Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns to the show with insights on the PMs sector. • He notes the newly bullish character of gold / silver. The official gold rigging or "fix / pool" continues to unravel, representing an investment opportunity. Full Story
After trading five dollars either side of unchanged in Far East and London trading, the gold price was down a buck when the GDP numbers hit the tape at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Friday morning in New York. Gold [along with the other three precious metals] headed north with a vengeance, as the dollar index headed in the other direction even faster. And it should be obvious from the saw-tooth price pattern that the powers-that-be were at battle stations for the rest of the day. Full Story
The Weekly Charts for Nasdaq, Gold, Miners, France, UK, Germany, US Dollar and the Euro. Most traders are so short term oriented that they forget to look at the weekly charts. The weeklies will tell you the intermediate trend. It’s never safe to trade against the intermediate trend unless it is very late in the intermediate cycle. Full Story
Everything is now aligned for the final upward impulse to complete Phase I of the great bull market in the PM stocks. All the technical work is now done. The backing and filling complete. The final fuel stop taken to fill up on short sellers who will provide the fuel for the final surge powered by short covering. The psychology is properly set with several prominent newsletter writers having kept there subscriber base out and on the sidelines of the market. So let’s take a look at the weekly and daily gold price and see how it has been methodically taking all the healthy steps required to set-up for this rally’s completion. Full Story
Earlier this year, the director of marketing and sales at the Austrian Mint confirmed to Bloomberg in an interview that the Mint’s combined gold bar and gold coin sales in 2015 had totalled 1.32 million troy ounces, a 45% increase on 2014, while the Mint’s silver sales in 2015 had reached 7.3 million ounces, a figure 58% higher than in 2014. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 31 July, 2016
The top three U.S. oil companies released their financials today and the results were completely horrible. Exxon Mobil was the only one of the three that still made a profit for the first half of the year, however it was down a stunning 62% compared to the same period last year. Unfortunately, Chevron and ConocoPhillips results were much worse as they suffered a combined net income loss of $4.7 billion for the first half of 2016. We must remember, these are the major U.S. oil companies that are supposed to be highly profitable. I hear this all the time from politicians and folks who believe in lousy conspiracies. Full Story
Stocks and metals continue to shine. I can’t stress enough how great it is to finally have stocks acting strongly and predictably which is the mark of a strong bull market. There really isn’t much else to say. Buy the dips and build strong positions in the best stocks and then sit and let it happen. Half the battle is waiting for a market such as this and then pouncing hard when it comes. You don’t have to make money every day, every week or even every month, rather, wait for this type of market and make your year, or years, in a relatively short amount of time. Full Story
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