Mickey worked for junior explorers, major mining companies, private companies, and investors as a consulting economic geologist for over 20 years, specializing in geological mapping, property evaluation, and business development. In addition to Mickey’s professional credentials and experience, he is high-altitude proficient, and is bilingual in English and Spanish. From 2003 to 2006, he made four outcrop ore discoveries in Peru, Nevada, Chile, and British Columbia. Full Story
As expected, the statistical guesswork of the BLS magically added 200M+ "jobs" in May. This has spiked interest rates and crushed the yen, which is now trading at levels not seen since 2002. What does this mean for the short-term future of the metals? Full Story
Gold and Silver are going to close down for the third consecutive day and the third consecutive week. As we pen this on Friday, Gold bounced from $1162/oz and could close near $1170/oz while Silver traded below $16/oz and may close at $16/oz right on the dot. Both metals are now dangerously close to their final weekly supports and therefore one step closer to an important technical breakdown. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 5 June, 2015
Gold remains deeply out of favor thanks to global central banks’ extreme money printing. This fueled a global stock-market levitation that has temporarily short-circuited normal market cycles, leaving investors infatuated with stocks to the exclusion of prudent portfolio diversification. This has left them radically underinvested in gold, which sets the stage for massive mean-reversion buying when they inevitably return. Full Story
Jim suggested a big picture topic to write about. Each step forward by the Chinese to make a foothold for the yuan is one step backwards for the grip the dollar has held over the globe. This topic has several nuances to it, let's take a look from several vantage points. As a spoiler, any "steps back" in today's fiat currency world are steps toward a break in confidence. Call it deflation or hyperinflation, a break in the confidence of fiat currency will end with many currencies being replaced, this is a major part of your coming "re-set". Full Story
Greece is again on the brink. Hellas stood on the edge for the first time in spring 2010. In May 2010 the European Union and International Monetary Fund approved the first bailout worth €110 billion, under the condition of austerity measures. The first rescue package missed its targets as lenders’ economic forecasts for Greece were too optimistic. Full Story
We know that the Federal Reserve cranked up their digital printing presses and created over $16 Trillion in new currency, swaps, loans, bailouts, gifts, etc. in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Example: Bernie Sanders says that Bank of America received over $1.3 Trillion in bailouts. Full Story
Last week I wrote how I can disagree with other media, be it mainstream or alternative, Chinese, Russian or English, on the reporting of the gold market. This week another perfect example came by, from Russian news outlet Sputnik International. According to this press agency the Russian Central Bank (CBR) currently holds 360 billion US dollars in official gold reserves and Elvira Nabiullina, head of the CBR, is determined to raise this amount to 500 billion US dollars. This is not true. Full Story
China is in the late stages of constructing its thirteenth five-year plan, a process that commenced over a year ago and will result in a first draft in October. While the bulk of the plan will concern regional and domestic development, it is the international aspects that will concern the rest of the world. The plan, which will produce specific goals for 2016-20, is already having an effect on China’s foreign and trade policy. Full Story
Mickey worked for junior explorers, major mining companies, private companies, and investors as a consulting economic geologist for over 20 years, specializing in geological mapping, property evaluation, and business development. In addition to Mickey’s professional credentials and experience, he is high-altitude proficient, and is bilingual in English and Spanish. From 2003 to 2006, he made four outcrop ore discoveries in Peru, Nevada, Chile, and British Columbia. Full Story
I was originally going to title this piece “Doin’ the Right Thing” after the old Spike Lee movie. I had used that title once before, back in early 2008 in an article complimenting Barclays Global Investors for deciding to publish the serial numbers and weights of the all the bars held in its then-sponsored silver ETF, SLV (now sponsored by BlackRock). I had written several public articles exhorting Barclays to publish the data and was gratified that it did so. Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, Linn & Associates, LLC - 4 June, 2015
The financial markets were jolted today by a surprise “urging” by the IMF Fund to the US Federal Reserve Board to not increase interest rates this year. Basically Ms. Lagarde is asking the Fed to consider holding back on raising US interest rates as doing so too early in the IMF’s opinion carries more risk than being behind the curve. Full Story
I’d thought I would show another chart of the velocity of money but from a somewhat different perspective. I last showed a chart on the velocity of M1 in a Chart of the Week – The End of Cash? - April, 30, 2015. This is a chart of the velocity of MZM money stock and prior to 1960 money stock. Money stock is the total amount of monetary assets available in an economy at any specific time. MZM money stock is defined as money with zero maturity. Full Story
As the reported "inventory" of the GLD moves into negative totals for 2015, I thought it would be fun to bring some of these numbers into perspective once again. Back on Tuesday, the GLD reported another outflow of "inventory". The drop was nearly 5 metric tonnes and it brought the total stated "inventory" down to 709.89 metric tonnes. As "inventory" began the year at 710.81 mts and price began the year at $1184, you can see that both price and "inventory" are now down slightly for all of 2015. But that doesn't quite tell the whole story. Full Story
Last year (2014) will likely go down in history as the “beginning of the end” for the current global Central Banking system. What will follow will be a gradual unfolding of the next crisis and very likely the collapse of the Central Banking system as we know it. However, this process will not be fast by any means. Central Banks and the political elite will fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo, even if this means breaking the law (freezing bank accounts or funds to stop withdrawals) or closing down the markets (the Dow was closed for four and a half months during World War 1). Full Story
Back when I was a sailor, I was bored all the time. I was deck watch officer, standing watch on the bridge. We were miles offshore, hadn’t seen another ship in days, and I’d check the radar, then walk out on the bridge wing and scan the horizon with my binoculars, go back and talk to the quartermaster, check the chart… Zzzzzzz. Mind-crushing boredom. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Steve Blumenthal - 4 June, 2015
A recurring theme in my letters is the various ways in which we can go about determining valuations for stocks and other investments. My good friend Steve Blumenthal has gathered a number of charts from various authorities showing different ways to look at valuations for today’s US stock market. He topped it off with some very good estimates of forward-looking returns on total US equity portfolios. He is not arguing to get out but rather to be aware of where we are and to temper your expectations for the future. Steve writes in an easy, fluid style that I think you will enjoy as this week’s Outside the Box. Full Story
Many of us are aware that 400 billionaires appear on Forbes’ list of the wealthiest Americans. But if you had to guess what percentage of them is self-made, what would you say? A quarter? A third? Before I give you the answer, let me posit which way Thomas Piketty might lean. If you’re unfamiliar with the name, Piketty is the socialist economist whose book Capital in the Twenty-First Century was published a little over a year ago. It was an instant bestseller and elicited much debate not just in academic circles but also the popular media. Full Story
The Mercenary Geologist Michael S. “Mickey” Fulp is a Certified Professional Geologist with a B.Sc. Earth Sciences with honor from the University of Tulsa, and M.Sc. Geology from the University of New Mexico. Mickey has 35 years experience as an exploration geologist and analyst searching for economic deposits of base and precious metals, industrial minerals, uranium, coal, oil and gas, and water in North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Full Story
In my opinion these are often the wrong questions. Ask better questions and we receive more relevant answers. What did the politicians know about that scandal? The implication is that major politicians MIGHT be innocent and/or ignorant regarding the events in that scandal. We usually receive an implausible answer to such questions. Full Story
The War on Cash is now going into hyper-drive. In the last 24 months, Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the US, the UK, and now Germany have all implemented legislation that would allow them to first FREEZE and then SEIZE bank assets during the next crisis. These moves will be sold as “for the public’s good,” when they happen. But the reality is that it’s all about stopping people from moving their capital into actual physical cash. Full Story
To sum up, more and more analysts are warning against a U.S. stock market bubble, including Nobel Prize winners and Goldman Sachs. It may be a landmark, since what Goldman says often becomes policy. Yellen some time ago admitted that stock market prices were quite high. When the Fed hikes rates – to save its credibility – the stock market boom will end. This could be positive for the gold market, as investors could then fly away from U.S. stocks and the demand for precious metals would increase. Full Story
Generation Opportunity estimates that an additional 1.8 million young adults should be counted as unemployed by the Department of Labor because they are not in the labor force. Not only are young adults not finding jobs, millions of them are saddled with huge student loan debts. According to the Center for American Progress, over 40 million Americans have student loan debt totaling $1.3 trillion, with the average loan balance around $27,000. Full Story
Today, our subject is the value of an ounce of gold in the ground. Venture always flows where potential reward is perceived to have the lowest risk. In my opinion, advanced explorers and developers often offer the best risk/reward profile in the junior resource market. There is a plethora of companies to choose from in all segments of the resource sector. For any speculator, the challenge is to separate the many pretenders from the very few contenders. This is an especially daunting task for the retail lay investor. In this musing, we provide insights based on decades of experience evaluating companies and their projects. Full Story
Let me start with silver. The initial drop from 17.78-17.08 seems to count best as a 3 wave structure, which was followed by a consolidation, and then a 5 wave structure. If I was not concerned about a break down in metals to the lower lows I am expecting, I would say this is a classic 3-3-5 corrective pullback, suggestive of higher levels to yet be seen within this counter-trend rally. Full Story
We measured every bull cycle of gold stocks and found there have been eight distinct upcycles since 1975. We also discovered something exciting: Only one was less than a double. (A second was 99.9%.) Even more enticing is that the biggest one—a 601.5% advance in the early 2000s—occurred just after a prolonged bear market. And our current bear market is longer than that one. Full Story
I manage the active gold accounts for Van Eck. That includes Van Eck’s active gold fund in the U.S. and Europe. My team seeks to generate alpha in the gold sector by utilizing a bottom-up approach to stock picking that involves modelling the companies financially, routinely meeting with management, and traveling to project sites for evaluations. I worked over a decade as a geologist in Nevada gold mining and exploration before coming to Van Eck as an analyst in 1996. Hopefully our investment process and my background helps us make better investment decisions. Full Story
I’ve been of two minds recently regarding the current Cycle picture in equities. So this week I focused more attention on finding secondary evidence to support a more definitive position on direction. As I suspected it might, my research provided an almost endless array of contradictory evidence and facts. Full Story
Every year the gold in Fort Knox is ‘audited’ by checking the official joint seals that were placed on all vault compartments during the continuing audits of U.S.-owned gold from 1974 until 1986, when allegedly 97 % of the gold was inspected. However, a Freedom Of Information Act request (FOIA) I’ve submitted in order to obtain all audit reports could not be honored. Seven reports can not be found. Full Story
You really have to wonder how it is that so much is going on all around us yet almost nothing is being reported by the mainstream press. I know it is hard to do, but imagine yourself 20 or 30 years ago, could what is currently happening ever be "slept through" as it is today? Could markets have just snoozed it off as if nothing bad "could" happen? Full Story
The month of June is typically a boring one for gold and silver price action, although the latter half of the month tends to be a bit better for gold. That’s the seasonal chart for silver, courtesy of Dimitri Speck. India is the world’s main market for silver, and demand shrivels a bit during the May – June timeframe. As a result, the silver price usually swoons, and frustrated investors can make irrational statements about this mighty metal. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 June, 2015
Just how little is U.S. renewable energy production from solar and wind? Well, it actually turns out to be less than I thought. Even though the United States continues to add new solar plants and wind farms, it’s the growth of the country’s fossil fuel output that is the real winner over the past decade. Full Story
A “black swan” event occurred at a gathering of outlaw bikers on Sunday, May 17 in Waco, Texas. According to news stories a fight broke out between several motorcycle gangs at the Twin Peaks restaurant. At least nine bikers are dead, another 17 were injured, and perhaps as many as 170 were detained or jailed. Full Story
Rather than write about the economy, the markets or geopolitics, today let's look at something a little different. It's important every once in a while to step back and take in the big picture because we are all guilty of getting too close or "finite" if you will. We fight the daily battles while losing sight of what the war is really about. Gold advocates otherwise known as "gold bugs" have been worn down by the daily battles, some have even forgotten what the real war is. Gold bugs, these are the "crazies" out there who are described as nuts or "conspiracy theorists". We know now they were not "theorists" at all. JP Morgan's $32 billion paid in fines along with many other fined and censured firms is proof of conspiracy FACT! Full Story
Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawal volume continues to be strong, coming in at 45.5 metric tonnes for the week ending May 15. According to Credit Suisse, the gold monetization plan in India may boost imports if banks pay investors interest on bullion deposits. The Austrian central bank announced it has adopted a new storage strategy whereby it will store 50 percent of its total gold reserves in Austria by 2020; they currently only have 17 percent within country. Full Story
On shorter time frames the gold sector has been viewed as being on an ‘anti-USD’ inflation bounce. This bounce scenario in gold stocks and commodities took a hit last week with the US dollar’s strong bounce. In NFTRH we are managing things on both short and long time frames, with the short-term currently tied to movements in the USD. On the long-term however, things appear to be setting up for the next big macro play. The following charts are used for big picture updates to give perspective to the shorter-term work we do each week in NFTRH. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I would like to show you some old charts, that we’ve not looked for the most part, in a long time. Some of the long term members may remember some of these charts that go all the way back to when we first opened our doors at Rambus Chartology. When you build long term weekly or monthly charts things change very slowly vs the minute charts. What you were thinking several years or longer ago can still be relative to today’s price action. Full Story
As long as the threat of a Fed interest rate hike hangs over the market, large speculators will be more interested in selling rallies in the gold market. While the current rash of weak economic data has bought gold some time, in that it does not have to compete with interest paying Treasuries as long as interest rates remain in the gutter, the market is expecting the Fed to move on the interest rate front sometime this year. That means gold’s days are numbered unless for some reason we see inflation pressures come out of nowhere and suddenly surge higher. Full Story
Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics says geopolitical tensions are the result of the unsound fiat money system and the resulting economic distress. By kicking the economic can down the interstate highway, our officials are positioning for global warfare, which could erupt as soon as 2015. Our guest is convinced that the People's Bank of China has accumulated at least 2 thousand tons of gold bullion per year. Full Story
Let us begin by looking at withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), as this is the best indicator for demand in the Chinese wholesale market – read this post for the mechanics of the Chinese gold market. In week 20 (May 18 – 22) withdrawals accounted for 43 tonnes, down 6.57 % week on week, but still a robust amount. Full Story
How do you read the recent strength of the US dollar and its fall back again after the news that GDP shrunk by 0.7 per cent in the first quarter? A classic double-top perhaps? Did the dollar top out in March with its spectacular spike to $1.04 to the euro followed by a five per cent crash? That was the conclusion of HSBC’s currency experts, with the proviso that something like the bankruptcy of Greece could still push the euro underwater again. So where do currency speculators turn for the next momentum trade? Full Story
“It’s unbelievable,” said colleague Merryn Somerset Webb. Merryn is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine in London. “London property prices just keep going up and up. It’s so expensive our writers can’t afford to live here anymore. I’m thinking of moving the business to Edinburgh.” You can’t build a solid economy on the jelly of unaffordable housing, unpayable debts, and unsustainable asset prices. But that’s what we’ve got. The only way to get down to something more reliable… more real… and healthier… is to wash away the financial glop and goo that has accumulated during the last 30 years. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 31 May, 2015
While EASTERN demand for physical gold investment remains strong, most of the folks in the WEST are bored with the barbarous relic as they continue to funnel their funds into highly inflated paper assets. However, the Germans seem to look at gold a bit differently… actually a lot differently. Even though the Swiss continue to buy more gold on a per capita basis, German physical gold investment demand is the highest of all Western countries. How much higher? Full Story
As you can see, there is a premium paid for the option. If the underlying asset rises above the strike price, the profit available to the option holder is unlimited. Above the strike price, the option essentially behaves like stock (a $1 change in the stock price results in a $1 change in the option price). Below the strike price, the option behaves like nothing at all. Full Story
Markets and stocks started the week out on a rough note but there wasn’t any panic selling and stocks who’ve been strong held up well so I held onto almost everything and even added a bit on Tuesday. Then we turned around well and ended the week constructively. Markets and stocks look great still and ready to move into new highs. That said, we are moving into summer and that isn’t usually when we see such moves but it doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Full Story
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