By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 5 June, 2009
Currently several newsletters are pointing to the prospects of a fall in the gold price to $850 during this summer. They then say that later in the year, after September the gold price will rise to $1,200 Some say it will rise now to $1,000 first then tumble back to $850 before rising to $1,200 later in the year. If it does pull back to $850 prior to a rise to $1,200, then it is clearly an excellent trading opportunity for even long-term investors, with a potential 50% trading profit! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 5 June, 2009
This week, Team Obama took their dog and pony show on the road. Treasury Secretary Geithner went to China, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Capitol Hill, and the President himself began a Mideast tour in Saudi Arabia. This full-court press is not coincidental, and comes just as the federal government has begun unloading trillions of dollars in new Treasury obligations. The coordinated charm offensive is meant to assure the world-at-large that the United States can repay these obligations without destroying the dollar. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 5 June, 2009
At the height of the stock panic in late November, the flagship S&P 500 stock index had plunged 49% year-to-date. Fully 2/3rds of this decline happened in the 9 weeks leading into the panic lows! Naturally the psychological impact of such an epic selloff was utterly massive. Fear exploded to unprecedented extremes. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 5 June, 2009
Northwestern has been in business during wars, recessions, boom times, high inflation and deflation, yet never before has the Company bought gold. The 152-year period also includes the devaluation of the Dollar in 1933 and the elimination of the gold standard entirely in 1971. However, now that the Federal Reserve is printing money, leveraging its balance sheet and monetizing debt to manipulate interest rates, Northwestern has made the decision to buy gold. Full Story
Chancellor Merkel’s criticism of The Fed is right “on the money”, as it were. She knows what we and a few others have been saying for years: The Fed’s super-loose monetary policies will lead to hyperinflation down the Road. Full Story
In most issues of The Morgan Report I answer questions from our subscribers, this week I looked back at some past issues and picked out a few that might be of interest to this readership as well. Full Story
Though Eisenhower was a bought and paid for president, as has been true with all of them since 1912, he did have brains enough to state that the Federal Reserve Bank was an “independent” agency not under the control of the US president. This was a true statement because the Fed is not a part of the US government. It is actually owned by and subject to the control of the big banks and big bankers—a sinister Cabal led by the European House of Rothschild. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 5 June, 2009
I thought that as part of the new Mogambo Program To Stop Freaking Out (MPTSFO) and maybe get some sleep that is not disturbed by screaming at nightmares of the horrors of inflation and economic ruin that are the just desserts of an America that has now embraced ignorance, stupidity and sloth as virtues, I had turned off the alarms in the Mogambo Bunker (the MoBu) that were connected to the circuits monitoring the creation of bank credit by the Federal Reserve. Full Story
The Rick’s Picks chat room was abuzz yesterday with anxious talk about a possible $100 swoon in gold over the very near term. Fears may have been stoked by a subscriber whose predictions have been prescient. Indeed, this fellow foresaw $60 crude when it was falling into the low $30s, and he was more bullish on stocks at their last bottom than just about anyone else we know. Now, although his long-term outlook for gold is quite bullish, though no moreso than our own, he’s looking for a sharp pullback as the summer begins. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 4 June, 2009
Angela is a genius. Tim is a schmuck. That’s what we took away from yesterday’s news. As near as we can make out, Tim Geithner’s trip to Beijing was, at best, a draw. He told his soothing lies. China listened. The markets reacted favorably. Full Story
In the end whatever happens immediately with the Dollar will determine gold’s future. Taking out $992 in August Gold should not prove easy. The question is whether or not yesterday was simply a shakeout of weaker longs or a sign that the current Bull Run is ending. Full Story
Choose your poison: the trickle of excess cash or the trickle of excess bond redemptions... NOT FOR THE first time the Financial Times says we gold buyers are "nuts" – a word which all too often follows on from "gold" in the financial media. Full Story
After watching the financial markets the past few weeks, it appears my greatest fear (and expectation), that of unchecked advancement of U.S. inflation, is coming to be – NOW. Perhaps using the taboo word “hyperinflation” doesn’t serve my purpose well, much as it hurt Cassandra to speak of “Armageddon.” But “unchecked advancement of inflation” and hyperinflation are one and the same, no matter what you call it. Full Story
Bernard Baruch, one of the world’s most legendary speculators, said, “The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” Right now, that’s exactly what’s going on. And I assure you, a lot of folks will be made into complete fools in the next year or so. Full Story
How about a bit of reality? Not the ridiculous promises from Washington, the absurd talk of "green shoots" while unemployment soars and investment falls, the silly guarantees that GM has a bright future even as its stock price falls to less than the price of a Snickers bar, the nonsense about how if we spend more and inflate more. Recovery will come tomorrow morning. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 4 June, 2009
Having looked out to months if not years and decades in our last article, we shift to the other end of the scale and how the eight hour chart of silver is going. I mentioned a near top to subscribers recently and one target price was the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire March to November 2008 drop. On the NYSE that drop was $20.90 to $8.79 and if we do our sums that retracement comes out at $16.27. Yesterday silver got as high as $16.23 and has reacted to the downside with a dollar drop so far. Full Story
Technical analysis can provide a very simple way to trade the gold sector but the difficulty comes down to following through with the plan and setups. These charts above, show exactly how I trade and use my charts to generate a comfortable income from gold. While I am bullish on gold in the longer term, I am not afraid to lock in gains along the way and accumulate more on a pullback, when there is another low risk entry point. Full Story
Gold touched the long time resistance line at $990 early this week and has since fallen back. I talk about the very strong fundamental reasons every weekend for the precious metals in my free letter so I won’t go into that right now. Basically gold should be much higher based on fundamentals and should continue to move higher right now according to those same fundamentals. But technically it looks like we need to blow off a little steam before resuming a rolling boil again. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 4 June, 2009
Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Michael S. called to make sure I got the new Department of Labor report that says it is beginning on work that “Reforms the Unemployment Insurance System” to “make the UI program a more responsive and effective social safety net and economic stabilizer,” which I assume means higher unemployment insurance premiums for businesses, making them raise their prices, so that the government can hand out more unemployment insurance money. Full Story
Statistical trivia has been garnering more than its fair share of attention lately, suggesting that stocks may be ready to head lower for a while, if perhaps only out of boredom. Yesterday’s selloff, half of which was recouped in the final half-hour by a relatively docile short squeeze, was attributed to energy sector weakness. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 3 June, 2009
Re-emergence of dollar vulnerability has taken almost all professionals by surprise. That has been prompted by the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, the upward movement in interest rates and the massive monetization that has been underway for some time. The Fed like many other central banks has been extending money and credit for the past 5-1/2 years. Those who watch closely were well aware of this. That is why the Fed has not published M3 for three years. Full Story
I was watching the NBC special called "Inside the White House" last night and was struck by a meeting with Larry Summers and the President. It was touted as an "all access" day in the life of the President but at 7:15 minutes into Part 1 Larry Summers and a man who I believe is Austan Goolsbee come into the Oval Office for a call with "the Germans". Summers is obviously on edge and shuts down the cameras when he begins to discuss the problem. Full Story
What if deflation wins? While we think the odds are strongly stacked against it, particularly given the government’s furious pace of money printing, the prudent investor understands – and respects – the time-tested adage, “Nothing is guaranteed.” So while our chips sit squarely on the spot marked “inflation,” what will happen to gold stocks if we’re wrong? Full Story
The precious metals market has been rallying very strongly in the past several weeks, which has happily contributed to increasing our net worth through our long-term holdings. Still, at the moment, it seems that the prices of precious metals and corresponding stocks have gone too high, too fast, and a healthy correction is likely. Full Story
It looks like more and more people are beginning to see the light. Although most of the gains are said to be explained by the recent fall of the dollar, this is not entirely the case. Gold is also rising in other currencies, albeit at a more modest pace. Nonetheless it is rising. The inverse relationship between the Dollar and Gold is still an important factor to keep in mind but we have to look at it with a broader perspective. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 3 June, 2009
We are no longer waiting the new era. It's here now. Just grab your box of popcorn and go sit on the Lincoln Monument and watch the wheels of the new era slowly take traction and build up steam. What’s first on the agenda? Well, it looks like our American automobile industry is being slowly nationalized. Full Story
Russia is a regional powerhouse but disappearing because of demographic factors. The oligarch’s power and influence is waning as the Kremlin reasserts its dominant role in finance, economics and politics. The Great Credit Contraction grinds on and real things are becoming increasingly sought after. Full Story
With the gold price closing on $1,000 and silver just through $16 an ounce again, gold stocks have been showing big advances in the past week. However, it is still possible to find quality junior gold exploration stocks with prices little changed since the wipe-out last autumn. These are almost certainly the last great bargains available in this bull run for precious metals. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 3 June, 2009
Yesterday, after a painfully long death spiral, General Motors finally filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Oftentimes, bankruptcy portends rebirth. Unfortunately, the politically-inspired GM plan holds no such possibilities. Under the current deal, the restructuring of GM will cost taxpayers some $100 billion (after the hidden costs of interest and refinancing are included). Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 3 June, 2009
I was settling down with a little microwave pizza as I was watching the YouTube.com video that was featured at InformationClearingHouse.info, titled “The REAL Maverick: Present Economy Worse Than Depression” which was an interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Benoit Mandelbrot. Full Story
Will investors have one more chance to buy gold for the relative bargain price of $900 before it takes off? We’ll get to that in a moment, but let me mention first that loading up on gold when bullion is moving higher needn’t be painful and fraught with risk. Full Story
The spirited price rally in silver and gold carried further in the past week. In silver, the rally in May was the best in 22 years, and the price has reached its highest level in ten months, as foretold by the nice market structure set up back in April. From the price depths of last fall, to the recent highs, silver has climbed 75%. Relative to gold, silver is at its best price ratio since September. This means that anyone who did buy silver, instead of gold over the past ten months has had a better return. Full Story
The rising long-term USTreasury Bond yield has captured attention. The breakout chart for the 10-year Treasury was pointed out here when it rose over 3.1%, hardly a high level. In the first week of May, a target of 3.5% was cited, one easily surpassed. It zoomed to 3.75%, enough to create some waves in the stock market distracted and preoccupied by nonsensical Green Shoots talk on the psychological side and by falsified bank balance sheets on the accounting side. Bigtime stress has come to the USTreasury complex, a story difficult to mask and conceal, since it is at the epicenter of the credit markets. Only on Wall Street can we hear lunacy of less bad economic statistics (framed in sophisticated second derivative arguments) amidst an absolute cavalcade of miserable news on the jobs front, home foreclosure front, and home price front. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and John Kaiser - 2 June, 2009
China's export-based economy, once dependent on American greed, is now but a fading memory. While the U.S. was busy printing and preening, the Chinese were long-range planning. But America wasn't the only country caught off guard by China's strategic, if surreptitious, supply procurement. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John Kaiser, mining analyst for more than 25 years, explains how the East-West economic tables got turned and why he remains steadfast in the belief that "we are not at the mercy of places like China." Full Story
Back in March 2008, when the Gold Price first broke $1,000 an ounce, the Euro equivalent peaked just shy of €660. Sterling investors here in the UK saw the price touch £515 an ounce. Yes, both of those figures – like the USD gold price – were then new record highs. But come the next test of $1,000 per ounce, four months ago in Feb. 2009, the Euro price reached 20% higher to touch €795. The UK value-of-gold peaked 35% above that previous $1,000-equivalent, up at £700 per ounce. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 2 June, 2009
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s trip to Asia has been heralded as a sales trip aimed at convincing the Chinese to keep buying U.S. Treasuries and thereby finance U.S. deficits. Such headlines are, in my humble opinion, an insult to the Chinese. Over and over again, we fall victim of the temptation to believe that Chinese leaders act in a vacuum, dictating policies out of a closet. Chinese leaders know very well the state of the Chinese, the U.S., and the world economy; they don’t need a sales pitch. So what’s the purpose of Geithner’s trip then? Full Story
As in medicine, with its opposing schools of allopathic (pharmaceutically oriented) medicine and homeopathy, there are two diametrically opposed schools of economics: the Keynesian one and the Austrian School of economic thought. Based on the ideas of the John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946), a British economist, Keynesian economics is the one government officials, academic experts, pundits, journalists, editors, and establishment economists follow. Full Story
Commodities across the board rallied significantly yesterday on signs of economic recovery that heralded the return of risk appetite. The upshot of this meant that the beleaguered dollar had another punishing day and this weakness pushed gold to $988.50. The next level of resistance is $999, with the $1000 mark likely to be breached soon thereafter. Gold's monthly close of $978.90 is bullish and shows that its current rally is sustainable. Silver touched $15.63 and has had its largest monthly increase since 1987 - up 27% for the month of May. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 2 June, 2009
The total supply of US dollars, as measured by TMS, is about 10% higher now than it was a year ago. Also, the total amount of credit within the US economy is higher now than it was a year ago thanks to the government's yeoman-like efforts to replace the bursting private-sector credit bubble with a public-sector credit bubble. Full Story
Secular bull markets last a decade or two and are the reason for the old adage of “buy and hold.” From 1982 to 2000, there was little to be gained for most investors by trading stocks as the market did so well over that period you could just buy the Dow Jones and watch your wealth grow. Full Story
The 2008 once-in-a-lifetime general stock market meltdown brought panic and forced liquidation to all market sectors, and in particular pummeled junior mining share prices by 80 – 90% or more, creating once-in-a-lifetime values for discerning investors. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 2 June, 2009
We sold 23 oz. of silver at a gun show this weekend! Woo Hoo! I had three people transport and sell silver on our behalf at the Vallejo, CA gun show this weekend. There was only one other numismatic dealer, and we had the lowest prices on bullion, and we were the only ones who had bullion in bulk. We took and offered 6500 ounces of silver and 70 ounces of gold. While the booth was cheap, there was also the cost of hotels, and wages, so we spent nearly $1000 to offer silver at the show. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 2 June, 2009
With all the trillions of dollars of new money being deficit-spent by the federal government, not the least of which is the mind-boggling $1.84 trillion in new deficit-spending that the Obama administration and Congress have conspired to enact and spend This Freaking Year (TFY), it is at least amusing to know that we taxpayers are paying taxes for nothing! Hahaha! Paying taxes for nothing! Full Story
With GM’s bankruptcy no longer hanging over Wall Street, perhaps now investors can get their minds right for some really bad news. We’re talking about the looming bankruptcy of California, of course, and of at least a few more big-budget states whose books are in equally disastrous shape, including New York, Arizona, New Jersey, Nevada, Rhode Island and Florida. Full Story
By: John Derrick, Director of Research, U.S. Global Investors - 1 June, 2009
The book is closed on May, and what a great month it was for commodities, precious metals and emerging markets. And there are several good reasons to believe that the strong performance will continue in June and beyond. Full Story
Debt is your worst enemy right now – make no mistake about it. And the reasons for this understanding are plain for all to see, with the most profound being the next round of deleveraging might be just around the corner, meaning worsening asset price deflation would make it impossible for most to ever escape the debt death trap outside of a jubilee, which is the last thing our blood sucking financial institutions want. Full Story
Back in 2001-2002 I used the term “retroflation” in a series of newsletters and articles to describe what I saw as a battle between the forces of inflation and deflation. The Kress 30-year cycle had peaked in late 1999 and with it the 1990s bull market in stocks. The U.S. was in the throes of economic recession and tech stocks were in freefall. Yet the Kress cycles called for a major bottom in late 2002 with the 6-year/12-year cycle bottoming and the Fed was already beginning to aggressive cut interest rates, showing that it was serious about re-inflating the economy. Full Story
Sometimes it’s quite beneficial to review one’s past actions and results in order to make an educated guess on the future. Did you say “guess,” Mr. Grandich? Believe it or not, that’s the best anyone can do. While I appreciate the many accolades for perhaps the greatest streak of success on the “guessing” front in my 25 years in this crazy game, I’m no St. Peter. Full Story
Austrian theory is known as theoretical economics and as an intellectual defense of hard money. However, I have also found it useful for stock market prediction. The old slogan says, “They don’t ring a bell on Wall Street” (to tell you when to sell). But in fact they do ring a bell, and to those who understand Austrian economics the signal is loud and clear. Using this signal the Austrian economists can take the money away from the Keynesian economists, making the good guys rich and leaving the bad guys poor. Full Story
Indian gold investors are gold holders for the long haul, so they will buy as long as they have disposable funds available. But they need to know where the ‘floor’ price of gold at any time is, so that when they buy it doesn’t fall straight after buying. They have no exit price as such. Yes, if they believe it has risen too far and is likely to fall, they will then sell some of their gold, but with a view to buying it back once the ‘floor’ price has been re-established. It is all a matter of price. That’s why there’s been such a large volume of scrap gold. Once this is exhausted they will turn back to the buy side of the market. Full Story
Commodities are on the run. Gold is forming an amazing reverse head & shoulders pattern and is about to test resistance. Silver is shining bright as it continues to surge higher out of a solid bull flag pattern. And crude oil continues to make new multi month highs after breaking out of its cup & handle pattern. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 1 June, 2009
Excitement has returned to the silver market as the sister metal of gold advances to highs not seen for ten months. Where is silver headed? Will it take out $21 with ease and head onto highs that evoke memories of 1979? Full Story
By: Larry LaBorde, Silver Trading Company - 1 June, 2009
The HUI Gold BUGS Index stands for the AMEX Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks index. The symbol of the index is HUI. There are 15 stocks in the index as listed below. All of the stocks have either completely unhedged gold production or not more than 1.5 years of gold production hedged. The market caps of these miners range from ¼ billion to 27 billion USD. Full Story
Easy: buy and hold a basket of Gold mining stocks or buy a Gold stock mutual fund or ETF (like GDX). There's only one catch, and it's a minor one: you should wait until the price comes down from current lofty levels. Full Story
With Key Mega-Financial Institutions around the World claiming in 2008 that they risked collapse if they were not bailed out, one must ask which ones benefited from the $13 Trillion plus Increase in Gross Market Value of their OTC Derivatives in the six months between June, 2008 and December, 2008 when the Equities Markets were crashing? A logical Conclusion: Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions of The Fed-led Cartel*, quite possibly including the shareholders of the private for-profit U.S. Federal Reserve. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 1 June, 2009
Foreign central banks, proving that they are just as stupid and corrupt as I thought they were, continue to buy American Treasury and agency debt with both hands, and their holdings stashed at the Fed jumped a big $26 billion last week as a result! Full Story
The dollar’s bounce last week from a Hidden Pivot support that we’d drum-rolled here lasted all of four days, suggesting that more weakness is on its way. If so, we should look for gold quotes to blow past $1,000 by no later than mid-week. Our immediate target for the August Comex contract is 1066.40, subject to a “hidden” resistance just above at 985.80. A two-day close above that last number, or a trade more than $4 above it intraday, would be quite bullish for the near term. Full Story
* Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. * Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. * The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listeners' questions.
2nd Hour: * John Williams, Shadow Stats Full Story
We live in today's world. It's bad, but it's not a catastrophe. We must keep our heads above water.
A Tsunami is coming. In such a scenario, you have got to get out of the water and off the beach. But few people ever do, unless they have seen a tsunami. Few have.
Allocate some percent of your wealth to tsunami-avoidance. Do it quietly. Do not discuss this with your big-mouth brother-in-law. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 31 May, 2009
Then there is the 26,500 tons of gold which the World Gold council allocates to private investment. Just who do you think most of those private investors are anyway? Full Story
That there is still some immediate upside in the silver price is thus evident with gold finishing the week at $980, tantalizingly close to its former March 2008 high. Indeed, while performing well over the past couple of weeks silver has actually lagged behind the recovery in gold, hence it is still short of its recent high. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 31 May, 2009
This Way Be Dragons A Housing Update More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future Are We Paying Too Much for Health Care? Naples, London, and Home for June Full Story
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