During a time of increasing uncertainty in global financial markets, James G. Rickards, best-selling author and advisor to US Department of Defense and Intelligence Communities, was kind enough to share a few comments. When asked about People’s Bank of China’s recently announced gold reserve holdings numbers, James noted that, “I’ve been [to] China and [spoke] to secure logistics people, that [told me] gold is being brought in completely off the books…over land using People’s Liberation Army assets…coming in from Kazakhstan, maybe Russia.” Full Story
In 2014 the conventional conduits of bullion flows to China, from all around the world first to Hong Kong and then to the mainland, have been replaced by direct exports. For example, the UK is exporting bullion directly to China since April 2014 – as I reported at the time. The result of the rearrangement in these gold flows is that Hong Kong’s export to the mainland has lost its accuracy as an indicator for China’s gold hunger. In a few posts we’ll have a look at trade data from several gold exporting nations and trading hubs to grasp how much gold China is importing this year. Full Story
Bill Bonner correctly identifies The Threat that is coming from The Mega-Bank Cartel (Note 1) — an “attempt to cut off our finances and line of retreat” — that is, The Cartel’s Attempt to discourage and, in certain circumstances, prevent the use of Cash. Take Note that Mega-Bank Moves in this direction are already occurring. Full Story
Free marketers reviewing the major candidates for U.S. president in 2016 would feel justly nauseated at the prospects. Unsurprisingly, every one of them promises to use the heavy hand of state power to solve our problems and make us prosperous — provided, of course, we’re members of favored voting blocs or generous supporters. Full Story
Despite happy economic reporting from the government, ShadowStats' John Williams warns that underlying problems from the crash of 2008 were never addressed, leaving the United States in a recession papered over by sleight of hand and a workforce redefined out of existence. Bottom line? "Holding gold is the best way to weather the storm that is coming when the fundamental weakness of the stock market and the U.S. dollar becomes apparent," Williams tells The Gold Report. Full Story
While turmoil in global capital markets may ultimately benefit the precious metals sector, it certainly is not an immediate catalyst. As global markets have weakened in recent days so too have precious metals and precious metals companies. The gold miners are nearing recent lows ahead of conventional markets while the recoveries in Gold and Silver appear to be reversing. This could be the start of a final flush that marks the end of the bear market. Full Story
Premiums on silver over the past weeks have exploded! Generally speaking, 10-25%+ seems to be the norm and anywhere from two - six weeks delay for delivery. We have talked about the dichotomy between silver being panic "sold" and "shortages" occurring simultaneously. In a free market, this is an impossibility. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 4 September, 2015
The epicenter of gold’s intractable weakness over the past couple years has been the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate-hike cycle. Everyone assumes higher interest rates will devastate zero-yielding gold, leaving it far less attractive. This premise led investors to avoid gold like the plague, and speculators to short sell it at wild record extremes. But provocatively, history proves gold thrives in Fed-rate-hike cycles. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 4 September, 2015
There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page. Unfortunately no one in the mainstream is too sure what the last chapter was about, and fewer still have any clue as to what the next chapter will bring. There is some agreement however, that the age of ever easing monetary policy in the U.S. will be ending at the same time that the Chinese economy (that had powered the commodity and emerging market booms) will be finally running out of gas. Full Story
THIS IS ALL A CHARADE AND A SHAM. Proven again by the clear effort by JPM in August to mask and hide the fraud by cleverly moving some eligible "gold" back and forth to registered during the delivery month. There is no actual gold being delivered. The entire delivery process is nothing but a shell game of unallocated metal and paper warehouse receipts. However, it is only this alleged delivery process that gives the paper derivative Comex any legitimacy. If the activities of August prove to you that metal delivery on the Comex is nothing but one, big scam...then how can anyone claim the Comex pricing derives a fair and true price? Full Story
The bottom line is that the Gold-Silver ratio indicates more short-term problems in US and global stock markets, commodities and even potentially the precious metals themselves. But the bigger picture view at least offers a line in the sand (long-term resistance) where an ‘inflation trade’ may finally get going again. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 4 September, 2015
Here’s the wrong way to think about gold supply: “Although gold’s aboveground inventory is huge compared to current production, only a tiny fraction of this gold will usually be available for sale near the current price. Therefore, changes in mine supply can be important influences on the gold price.” I’ll now explain the right way to think about gold supply. Full Story
Silver prices have been crushed for over 4 years, especially in the paper futures markets. The predictable result has been reduced interest in real money – silver and gold. The media is more focused on Donald Trump, Caitlyn Jenner, and Hillary’s emails – not the reality of exponentially increasing debt, out-of-control spending, failed economic policies, and expensive wars. Full Story
The title lets you know where this article is going. For such a routine correction in the US stock market, the Psych/Sentiment backdrop has gotten way out of whack. Do some analysis on Rydex Bull/Bear fund allocations among investors and you will find a historic knee jerk reaction into bear funds over bull funds (by those who still use Rydex funds). Full Story
It’s been a tough couple of weeks. I keep a mostly hedged book, long and short, so it’s rare that I get my head caved in on every position at the same time. But that’s pretty much what has happened. My shorts haven’t worked because they’re either rate-sensitive or Canadian banks. Meanwhile the longs, which include a lot of emerging markets—well, you know what has happened with those. Full Story
So lets look at some gold charts which are showing gold is at a critical level right here. Below is the daily chart for gold that shows its comb triangle / H&S consolidation pattern. I have shown you on the precious metals indexes the same combo consolidation pattern. The only real difference is the PM stock indexes reached their respective price objectives while gold has yet to reach its. So there is a big divergence between the Pm stocks and the metal. This counter trend rally that started at the August low finally ran into some serious resistance as shown by the red circle. Full Story
Is an epic financial meltdown about to commence? Predictions that a crash will occur in the fall of 2015 have been gaining traction. They are bolstered by some of the market events of this summer, which suggest that something big is indeed unfolding. Full Story
Once upon a time, before banks and before even private lending, there was only one way to prepare for retirement. People had to hoard something durable. Every week, they would set aside part of their wages to buy salt (later, it was silver). Assuming it didn’t get wet, the salt accumulated until they couldn’t work any longer. Then, they would begin selling it off to buy groceries. Full Story
Goldbugs are bemused by reports that the European Union competition watchdog is investigating alleged ‘anti-competitive behavior’ by participants in the precious metals market. But anybody who remembers how the EU broke up the cement cartel a couple of decades ago will know that this is a watchdog that has very powerful teeth. It’s fines can bankrupt even very large companies or banks. Full Story
“You need a college degree to succeed in America.” This idea has become so commonplace that the right to higher education is now a core issue in most political platforms. What if a young person cannot afford a college degree? The “obvious” answer from politicians on both sides of the aisle is that the government should subsidize them. Very few are brave enough to ask the far more important question: “At what cost?” Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 3 September, 2015
Something has seriously changed in the silver market as traditional indicators no longer seem to matter. Normally when the price of a commodity falls, so does demand. However, we are seeing quite the opposite as investors continue to buy silver bullion hand over fist. Full Story
Can we utilize the probability this intervention creates? Can we game these cycles that appear as a result of such predictive behavior? Unfortunately, once enough of us recognize it, it will be too late. By the time the normal buying starts — the price could easily be far out of reach for the average investor. And given the action of one of the biggest commercial banks, JPM - in obtaining an unusually long physical position, as they control price, that time may be closer than we think. Full Story
Gold’s many qualities make it one of the most coveted metals in the world. Not only can it be beautifully shaped and sculpted, the yellow metal also conducts electricity, doesn’t tarnish and is biocompatible (meaning it’s not harmful to our tissue). These qualities make it the metal of choice in a wide variety of industries, including dentistry and medicine, electrical engineering, construction and aerospace manufacturing. Full Story
When this hits, capital will fly to high quality bonds particularly US treasuries. However as the bond market crisis accelerates eventually it will envelope even safe haven bonds (including Treasuries). At that point the bad debts in the financial system will finally clear and we can begin to see real sustainable growth. Full Story
If you wake up tomorrow and your bank account is frozen… what will you do? You probably remember when the financial crisis in Greece was dominating headlines a few weeks ago. For years, Greece spent more than it took in. This led to a financial crisis that looked like it might destroy Europe’s financial system. The Greek government closed all banks to prevent people from withdrawing all their money and crashing the banking system. Greek citizens could only withdraw €60 ($67) of their own money each day from ATMs. Full Story
When I was a lad studying economics in between bouts of playing blues guitar, surfing, and drinking fine Namibian lager, professors taught my classmates and me the origins of paper money. Like the beginners we were, we Economics 101 students trusted and believed them. Years later, when I was a postgrad in Economic History, I learned that my professors were wrong. Their account of the origins of paper money was based on theoretical wishful thinking rather than real world history. When you studied actual events, you found that things weren’t so simple. Full Story
Awareness about the concept of money is making a comeback. Gone are the decades in which the global citizenry was fooled to leave this subject to economists, governments and banks – a setup that has proven to end in disaster. The crisis in 2008 has spawned debate about what money is, where it comes from and where it should come from. These developments inspired me to write a post on the concept of money and the money illusion. (All examples in this post are simplified.) Full Story
Sometimes, I like to look around the market to see what the mainstream analysts are saying about the metals world. Sadly, almost all, especially at my old stomping ground at Seeking Alpha, have had a strongly bullish bias, accompanied by low levels of accuracy. And, as I noted last weekend, at each rally over the last few years, they have uniformly, and incorrectly, believed the final low was in place. Full Story
Are you worried about the stock market? You should be; at least according to your local Starbucks barista. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz told his 190,000 employees in his daily “Message from Howard” email communication: “Today’s financial market volatility, combined with great political uncertainty both at home and abroad, will undoubtedly have an effect on consumer confidence and … our customers are likely to experience an increased level of anxiety and concern. Let’s be very sensitive to the pressures our customers may be feeling.” Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 2 September, 2015
The Dow was down 550 points at Tuesday’s lows, but it looks like it has even farther to fall. One needn’t be a chartist to ‘feel’ the weight of the downtrend in the accompanying chart. It implies the Indoos are about to plunge to at least 15596, a ‘Hidden Pivot’ midpoint support. That’s 462 points beneath Tuesday’s settlement price, a fall almost exactly equal to Tuesday’s. There are three tradable levels implied, long or short, and I’d suggest checking out the current E-Mini S&P tout if you’re keen on profiting from the move. Full Story
Even if you are already wealthy, some thought on this topic is worthwhile. What would you do if some act of God or of government, a catastrophic lawsuit, or a really serious misjudgment took you back to square one? One thing about a real depression is that everybody loses. As Richard Russell has quipped, the winners are those who lose the least. As far as I'm concerned, the Greater Depression is looming, not just another cyclical downturn. You may find that although you're far ahead of your neighbors (you own precious metals, you've diversified internationally, and you don't believe much of what you hear from official sources), you're still not as prepared as you'd like. Full Story
Welcome to September! Here’s the daily Dow chart. In early morning futures market trading, the Dow is down about 330 points. It’s a horrific start to the month, and it could get much worse. Here’s why: I think Janet Yellen might raise rates in September, regardless of the effects of a rate hike on the stock market. Full Story
For the month of August 2015, the S&P saw a high of 2,113, a low of 1,867 and a close of 1,972. This meant that, for the month, the range was 11.64% and the final loss was 6.67%. Just as in December of 2000 and January of 2008, we will almost certainly be able to look back in hindsight and see that August of 2015 marked the end of the most recent bull market. Should history repeat...and we see no reason why it shouldn't...over the next 12-18 months, the S&P will now fall about 50% from it's most recent peak of 2,135 in May of this year. This would bring the index back down to 1,000-1,100 range by sometime in late 2016. Therefore, the time to act is now. You can either continue to drink the hopium of Bloomberg and CNBC or you can respect "The Death Candle" and take action to avoid losses similar to 2000 and 2008. Full Story
The spotlight has been on the oil price over the past three trading days with a spectacular bounce of 27 per cent. Apply the same gain to the gold price and we would be looking at $1,450 an ounce. Experts are uncertain exactly why the oil price has rallied. There have been no fundamental changes to the oversupply or demand. If anything the economic data out of China points to weaker demand. Full Story
In terms of gold, silver is currently better value than at the beginning of the bull market in 2001. In November of 2001, when silver bottomed, the Gold/Silver ratio was about 66 compared to 78 today. In other words, gold has actually outperformed silver since the beginning of this precious metals bull market. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 1 September, 2015
During bull-market years and bear-market years, it is not uncommon for the US stock market to experience a quick decline of 10% or more at some point. For example, there was at least one quick decline of 10% or more in 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. In other words, 15 out of the 19 years from 1994 to 2012, inclusive, had quick declines of 10% or more. Only two of these years (2001 and 2008) had declines that could reasonably be called crashes. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 1 September, 2015
The lower price of gold has finally taken its toll on U.S. gold production. Domestic gold mine supply fell considerably in May compared to the same period last year. This is a significant amount as the United States is the fourth largest gold producer in the world. According to the most recently released data by the USGS, U.S. gold production declined a whopping 14% in May. Full Story
The photo you see below was snapped recently in Beijing. It might not be that special to some readers, but in my 25 years of visiting the Chinese capital, I’ve never seen a blue sky because it’s always been blotted out by yellow smog. Beijing is clearly undergoing a massive transformation right now. This might please proponents of the green movement, but it’s ultimately harmful to the health of China's manufacturing sector. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 1 September, 2015
Asian stocks are getting trounced again, making it far more difficult for DaBoyz to manipulate U.S. markets in the way they’d like. The E-mini S&Ps have been down the equivalent of 300 Dow points thus far, but it’s not clear whether sellers are sufficiently winded to set up the obligatory short squeeze ahead of Tuesday’s opening. I wouldn’t presume to tell you how to trade so volatile a market by-the-numbers, but if the selloff continues, levels p, p2 and D in the accompanying chart should be used to benchmark the move. Full Story
The massive Quantitative Easing (QE) abuse by the USFed and steeped lies are centered on its volume, which in reality is an order of magnitude higher than admitted. The recent usage of certain REPO windows has been effective to disguise huge volume of bond purchases. The entire bond system is irreparably corrupted. The REPO window hides QE extras with naked bond shorting linked to a $1 trillion extravaganza that receives almost no publicity. While the public, and even more financial market participants, focus on the Dow Jones stock index, the Treasury Bond yield, the crude oil price, and very little else, they overlook the Reverse REPO window and the related Failures to Deliver data for USTreasury Bonds. The two work like a hand and glove. Full Story
"Something" happened three weeks ago. While we cannot be sure "what" exactly happened, we can speculate. We have many dots and lots of data points to help us but first it needs to be pointed out, even if wrong in conclusion ...just the knowledge alone that "something changed" is enough. If you know something has changed, you can take clues and look at various markets for inflection points. Currently, most markets are stretched to various limits. Whether it be zero bound credit markets, equities, real estate, commodities or gold and silver, all values had reached extreme highs or lows. Full Story
Central planning is the culprit. It transplants concepts such as for ‘the good of the people’, and ‘good of the state’, from those associated with a republic based on political freedom and liberty. Commonly referred to as ‘socialism’, throughout history centrally planned regimes have been born out of democracies as lifecycle changes take hold, and touted as progress by those in charge of, and benefiting from, the planning. Humans, being what they are, which is easily corruptible, quickly turn such circumstances for their own benefit at the public’s expense, who don’t mind because they are bribed with handouts as well. Full Story
Paper markets such as T-Bonds and the S&P 500 have been levitated by central bank “money printing,” government support, and the inevitable devaluation of fiat currencies built into the structure of the financial system. Paper markets move higher – exponentially – as currencies devalue and reset or crash to lower levels, and then repeat. Full Story
Platinum prices were off 0.14 percent this week, holding in as the best performer of the precious metals group. Gold bullion, though down for the week also saw a pickup in the net long position by the non-commercial, according to data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Full Story
For six years, the world has operated based on faith and hope that Central Banks somehow fixed the issues that caused the 2008 Crisis. All of the arguments supporting this defied common sense. A 5th grader knows that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added another $10 trillion in debt to the US system. Full Story
The jihadist group on Saturday touted “the return of the gold dinar” in an hour-long video issued by its media wing, al Hayat. Islamic State’s policy-making Shura Council last year tasked its Beit al Mal, or treasury, with minting the coins, which come in several denominations made of gold, silver and copper. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 31 August, 2015
In the case of China’s so-called devaluation, however, it isn’t just bombastic billionaires with a lust for political power who have misrepresented the situation. Anyone who has claimed that the Yuan’s devaluation was primarily about boosting exports has a poor understanding. The reality is that the Yuan is very over-valued and has begun to fall under the weight of this over-valuation. Furthermore, rather than deliberately devaluing the Yuan, as part of its effort to maintain the semblance of stability China’s government has actually been trying to prevent the Yuan from devaluing. Full Story
We warned you that the bear would assume any guise necessary to mask his goal of savaging the multitude of investors as a possible bear market unfolds. Lo, along comes a story blithely helpful to this purpose in the Wall Street Journal, a mighty instrument of propaganda that can always be counted on to do the bear’s most important work: lubricating the victims for the inevitable coup de cul. “U.S. Stock Swings Don’t Shake Investors,” proclaimed a weekend Journal headline so pregnant with hubris it practically begs for comeuppance. Full Story
David Nicoski of Vermilion Technical Research makes his debut on the show - he deciphers the market dynamics from a technical perspective, in particular relative strength analysis. Starting last Wednesday, the market plunged sharply, fulfilling a bearish diamond pattern prophecy. The thousand point decline in the Dow Jones Industrials Average last week was followed by a 1,000 point intraday collapse on Monday. Prominent economic analyst, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group rejoins the show on the heels of a pilgrimage to South Africa. His team correctly forecasted the commodities sector weakness. The cyclical decline in the bull market in commodities should conclude by 2018. Our guest thinks the US Fed is behind the financial trends. Full Story
With all the volatility this week in markets around the world the US dollar made an interesting move. The long term daily chart below shows the five point rectangle, at the bottom left hand side of the chart, that launched the big breakout and impulse move higher in May of 2014. If you look at reversal point #5 with a question mark on it you’ll see the comment I made at the time which I noted, this could be a false breakout to the downside and we might see a big move in the opposite direction, which was up. Full Story
Following Monday’s historic stock market downturn, many politicians and so-called economic experts rushed to the microphones to explain why the market crashed and to propose "solutions” to our economic woes. Not surprisingly, most of those commenting not only failed to give the right answers, they failed to ask the right questions. Full Story
We are believed to be at an excellent juncture right now to short the broad stockmarket (or buy bear ETFs and Puts). As we know, we did just that before the dramatic plunge early last week, and are now “sitting pretty”. Now is the time to add to positions, or if you haven’t any and are looking for the right shorting opportunity, this is it. Full Story
As most of you know, many mining companies have fallen by over 90%. The HUI Gold Bugs index has fallen 83% since its 2011 peak in the second longest bear market in gold shares on record. It’s fallen twice as much as gold’s bear market loss of 43%. But looking at the next two charts, both are saying the lows may already be in. The bear market is not over until it’s over, but the gold shares to gold ratio on Chart 1, sure looks like a low is near. Full Story
I write these words feeling a little bit like the Lloyd Bridges character in Airplane! With global markets going crazy, I obviously picked the wrong week to go on vacation. On the other hand, maybe it was exactly the right week. I decided last week that I would rerun something from the archive for this week’s Thoughts from the Frontline. That freed me to think about the week’s events from a different perspective. It also gave me time for some long conversations with friends who are real experts. I learned some things I will share with you in due course. Full Story
We took a little vacation over the weekend before Black Monday, August 24th, 2015. Having just finished contemplating and describing the fear and volatility left over from the previous week, I felt predisposed to signs of ‘smoke’ everywhere I looked. Freeway traffic patterns, police action, geological activity, tremors, vibrations… Returning to our hotel from dinner we noticed a strange phenomenon. A line of fire support vehicles parked along side of our hotel had developed in the hour or so that we were gone. Trucks with young, worn out, young men returning from north California and beyond. Firefighters returning from the front lines. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 30 August, 2015
Something quite interesting took place in the silver market and I believe few investors realize the significance. After looking over the data, I came across some fascinating evidence that shows just how fearful individuals are about investing in the paper precious metal markets. Full Story
If there was ever any doubt that the majority of buying by the hedge fund category in the gold market over the past 3-4 weeks has been of the nature of short covering, this week’s COT should put that theory to rest. Since the third week of July, the hedge fund category alone has covered or lifted 40,000 short positions. That against the addition of only 16,000 or so new long positions over the same time span. By a better than 2:1 margin, hedge funds have been covering shorts, not instituting fresh purchases of gold. Full Story
Gold backed off resistance as I talked about here last weekend and now is chopping around and forming a sharp little head and shoulders pattern which should take it lower. Gold lost 2.35% this past week and is now looking for a move lower which silver is so far confirming. A break of $1,120 and $1,110 are short levels and also $1,150 if it cannot be bested, after being tested. Full Story
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