I think gold has a lot of catching up to do to be where it needs to be given how wrong the market expectations were regarding the Fed’s ability to shrink its balance sheet and normalize interest rates, and how wrong the markets are in their anticipation of where future inflation is likely to be and where the dollar is likely to be. So, we’re going to get some big moves up in the price of gold as far as catch-up.” Full Story
Instead of singling out the U.S.-China trade war as the catalyst for this potential slowdown, he criticized global monetary policy that currently favors lower interest rates and has created an imbalance relative to fiscal policy.
What banks should have done, Singer suggested, “and what they should do now, is try to restore the soundness of money. They should not be cutting rates right now. They should be calling on the congresses and parliaments around the developed world to take steps to deal with the economic slowdown in growth.”
I’ve seen Singer speak before, and he’s discussed at length that he likes gold for its diversification benefits. This is in line with fellow billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, who recently said that gold is his favorite trade in the next 12 to 24 months. Full Story
- In the Ron Paul Liberty Report last month, Dr. Paul noted, "The Fed Can't Save Us, But Gold Can," in response to the new rate cut cycle. - He outlines how this event could mark the beginning of a 1970's style stagflationary episode, where galloping inflation required only 5 years. - Resolving the inflationary quagmire required considerable effort of the Fed Chairman, Paul Volker to contain the price genie. - Fast forward 40 years and the global economy faces much more dire conditions than the 1980's inflation scare. - Dr. Paul outlines an ideal panacea to sidestep the impending calamity. Full Story
While it is important to understand that action on Comex is perhaps only 25% of the entire, global digital derivative pricing scheme, Bullion Bank control of that "market" means that Comex manipulation has an outsized ability to impact price.
One of the primary tools the market-making Banks have at their disposal is contract creation. As interest in owning "gold exposure" on Comex grows, The Banks do not simply hold the supply of contracts constant. Instead, they create new contracts to add to the existing float. In doing so, they dilute the supply of contracts while at the same time making bets against the Speculator long interest...and this is often a winning, profitable bet for The Banks as their infinitely deep pockets allow them to simply outlast the margin-handcuffed Specs. Full Story
When last we left the 3 Metallic Amigos… I can’t remember the detailed individual statuses and am too busy to go read the post. They were something like borderline hysterical gold, attractive silver and bouncing (but not yet bullish) copper. So here’s today’s update on these Amigos.
Gold is testing the high today after not even pulling a 38% Fib retrace. A real bull market launch may not pull back to a nice neat support/retrace level (38%, 50%) but that does qualify as a test of the big picture breakout at 1378, which has for years now been our (NFTRH) Bull/Bear line of demarcation. Full Story
To show that I’m fair with Trump, I’ve seen my way to a different way to thread all of this together than the Carlson presentation that claimed Trump was played and was foolhardy and rushed toward retaliation without considering the cost. And here it is, as I promised in my last article on this subject:
Remember that claim that Trump contacted Iran to forewarn them of his retaliatory strike. Here is where this comes into play. Either that was the stupidest thing any president ever did, if true, putting the United States’ own pilots at risk because Iran would be ready for them, or it was a cleverly concocted ruse. Full Story
By: Gary Christenson, Deviant Investor - 3 July, 2019
City Two: Inflationapolis:
People elected the politicians, but they served the needs of the political and financial elite who wanted wealth and power. The people wanted free benefits. Politicians bought votes, increased benefits, and printed paper currency units to pay for their promises. Prices rose. The poor and middle classes suffered from consumer price inflation while the wealthy protected their wealth via gold, land, real estate and hard assets stored abroad. Full Story
There remains one little caveat to all of this. If Trump in his war with the Fed pushes Powell too hard, Powell may push back. The Fed may decide its paramount need is to prove its independence (not from the market, where it gave up independence long ago, becoming the market’s bitch) but from the political manipulation of any president. If that happens so the Fed doesn’t budge on rate cuts at the end of July, we switch instantly to my “worst-case scenario” where the market gets immediately buried.
Powell hasn’t shown he has the guts for that, but push a little guy hard enough, and he sometimes pushes back. I’m still leaning to the likelihood I’ve stated all along of rate cuts in July, and the economy collapses anyway, taking the stock market down with it — because that is where we are going regardless since the Fed’s tightening is already bursting its recovery bubble — but the market will crash a lot harder and faster if Powell doesn’t deliver on the market’s demands, and Powell, as I laid out in a recent Premium Post, has been talking A LOT about the all-out importance of maintaining Fed independence. Full Story
Perhaps gold and crypto investors can find some common ground, as they each have similar benefits. The benefits that have traditionally led gold investors to hoard the yellow metal are not too different from those driving today’s Bitcoin buyers. Nonetheless, as we’ve shared, both are expected to embark on their next bull run. And, a disadvantage to owning one asset is often an advantage of owning other. Therefore, we believe both deserve a place in your portfolio for at least insurance purposes. Full Story
The rally out of the 2016 low lasted seven months and ended in September of the same year. After a strong impulse move like that one looks for the price action to consolidate its gains before moving higher. There was no way to know at the time what trading range would develop and how long it will take to complete. Now in hindsight we can see the GDX built out the 2016 bullish falling wedge, that we’ve been following for well over a year, which took two years to complete from the August 2016 high to the September 2018 low. It wasn’t until the breakout above the top rail of the 2016 bullish falling wedge and the completion of the backtest two months ago in May that we had significant confirmation that the bear market that began in September of 2011 was officially over.
Now that we know the bear market is officially over depending on what matrix you want to use, calling the 2016 low the beginning of the new bull market or the completion of the backtest to the top rail of the 2016 bullish falling wedge in May of this year the completion, the bottom line is that it’s time to start thinking in bull market terms leaving the bear market logic behind. Full Story
Even as U.S. stocks remain near record highs, a growing cohort of investors say they are ready to throw in the towel, reports Bloomberg. According to the latest reading from the Conference Board’s sentiment indicator, the number of Americans expecting equities to decline over the next year jumped the most since 2007 and for the first time since January exceeds those who expect gains. In addition, consumer confidence dropped in the month of June, well below the range of consensus forecasts, reports Bloomberg. Confidence dropped 10 points to 121.5, raising a potential red flag regarding households’ willingness to drive growth beyond trend over the next several months. Full Story
Last week, we discussed the fundamental flaw in GDP. GDP is a perfect tool for central planning tools. But for measuring the economy, not so much. This is because it looks only at cash revenues. It does not look at the balance sheet. It does not take into account capital consumption or debt accumulation. Any Keynesian fool can add to GDP by borrowing to spend. But that is not economic growth. Full Story
Now, to this point, there are two camps of thought. The first is that this market will simply continue higher in a very strong move with shallow pullbacks and consolidations, which is what I am allowing the market to do before I would consider adopting the second camp of thought. However, the second camp of thought was presented by the Stock Waves analysts last week, and you can watch their video analysis here. (As an aside, I would strongly encourage you to “follow” them, as they put out analysis each week about various sectors and stocks throughout the equity market.) Full Story
The historical tightening has turned into a failed experiment, an attempt to return to normalcy when no such event can possibly occur. Ponzi Schemes cannot be gradually unwound. The USGovt debt has gone past $22 trillion. The USGovt deficit this year is set to surpass $1.3 trillion. The missing money volume for the USGovt, a fat pig exploited by various departments, is conservatively estimated at $21 trillion. The global bond market investors no longer expect the USGovt debt to be repaid, as a failure mindset has crept into the bond arena. Given the repeated treatment since 2008, with expansion, the USTreasury Bond has become the global subprime bond. Next comes the reversal of monetary policy, where the US Federal Reserve begins to do emergency rate cuts in sequence. Expect some big name corporations to be monetized. The USDollar will be harmed, Gold will surely rise, and Oil will likely fall. A very valid point must be made. In past financial crises, the United States drew $trillions in capital from foreign markets. Next the opposite will occur, as foreigners will remove $trillions from their US holdings in both stocks and bonds. The US will be left to defend itself with corrupt devices. Gold will respond. Full Story
Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley are two such institution and they see gold having strong gains in the second half of 2019.
Credit Suisse analysts, like us, see gold returning to it’s record nominal high of $1,921/oz.
“Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base, which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1,921 record high,” according to David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline - 30 June, 2019
Comparative National Emergencies What Happens if There Is a Recession? On-Budget Versus Off-Budget Deficits Forget Turning Japanese, We Are Turning Greek Where Will the Money Come From? Boston, New York, Puerto Rico, New York, Maine, and Montana Full Story
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