By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 4 June, 2010
Government stimulus during economic contractions is intended to offset the decline in private spending that occurs during downturns. Government stimulus directly increases GDP while it indirectly boosts consumer and business confidence. As confidence increases, the economy stabilizes as would-be layoffs are postponed while inventory depletion turns to replenishment. Full Story
By: Doug Hornig, Editor, Casey Research - 4 June, 2010
The trillions in U.S. federal debt now exceed 85% of gross domestic product – and that’s not counting unfunded liabilities. Unemployment is breaking 20% as the government used to calculate it. The Federal Reserve is printing money like the paper it is. And the supposedly recovering housing market sees as many foreclosures in a month as new builds. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 4 June, 2010
Commodities stocks have two primary drivers, commodities prices and the general stock markets. When both are doing well, commodities stocks thrive. But when both are weak, commodities stocks amplify their losses as we’ve seen during the sharp universal correction since late April. The resulting deeply-oversold commodities stocks have created an outstanding buying opportunity today. Full Story
The highly discussed and quickly forgotten Flash Crash was an omen of what lies ahead for the financial markets. It was a uniquely distinctive occurrence relative to anything we’ve ever experienced. Likewise, what we are about to witness will be startling and never before observed by this generation of investors. After only thirty days the Flash Crash signal has become unambiguous and historians will wonder why the public didn’t react sooner to its clarion call. Full Story
Because over the first half of the bull market to date, gold stocks far outperformed the metal. Over the second half, in contrast, gold has matched and then beaten both the leading gold-equity funds and stocks, on average – and with significantly lower volatility, too. Full Story
To be clear, we are not anti-Happy Talk, provided there is a basis for the Optimism. But Unfounded Optimism about the Markets and Economy Courts Disaster. The Necessary, but not Sufficient, Condition for Protecting Profits and avoiding Financial Disaster is to “Get Real”. Full Story
I'd like to return to a theme we were discussing last week concerning our expectations for this year's upcoming 4-year cycle bottom. We touched on this in a recent commentary and we'll discuss it some more here. Full Story
The ‘80s were really a period of learning for me, playing around with wins and losses, all of which prepared me to profit from the bull market of the ‘90s. It’s been a wild ride, with resource stocks cyclically going up 1,000%, and then falling 95% – again and again. Full Story
By: Neeraj Chaudhary - Investment Consultant, Euro Pacific Capital - 4 June, 2010
With the mainstream media focusing on the country's leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. But I will argue that a look under the proverbial hood reveals a very different picture. Full Story
By: Charles S. Brant, Energy Correspondent, Casey’s Energy Opportunities - 4 June, 2010
The disaster in the Gulf of Mexico may be the best thing that’s ever happened to green energy producers in the U.S – but the one that benefits the most will probably surprise you. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Carmel Daniele - 4 June, 2010
Financial guru Carmel Daniele is none too concerned with the euro debt crisis, hemorrhaging oil in the Gulf or depressed natural gas. She's too busy making money. Whether it's oil in Colombia or potash in Peru, she's always looking for ways to improve the fortunes of her namesake CD Capital Private Equity Natural Resources Fund. Full Story
One of the predictable things consistently held in the Goldsmiths is a coming great economic and monetary collapse in the United States which will precipitate a confiscation of certainly gold and very possibly silver as well. When this fall arrives, it will be the greatest fall of any nation in world history. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 4 June, 2010
For reasons that I can only guess are, at the root, a result of the Federal Reserve creating so much money and buying up so much debt and assets from corporations of one sort or another that “Corporate tax receipts totaled $77.1 billion for the year to date, an increase of 8.9 percent,” which seems fairly remarkable in a kind of “lying, thieving scumbag” kind of way. Full Story
The inflation vs deflation debate is one fraught with biases, misnomers, and rigid positions. What I've noticed is that both inflationists and deflationists selectively handpick data to support their respective positions. This is fine and dandy if your goal is to win an argument; but if you want to win as an investor, you must unemotionally interpret data. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 3 June, 2010
Until mid-April, few traders knew much about the credit default swap (CDS) markets. They’re traded on an unregulated, over-the-counter market, and far from the public’s view. Yet nowadays, the CDS market has become a major battleground between high-stakes speculators and Euro-zone politicians, with the fate of the Euro currency hanging in the balance. In turn, the violent swings in the CDS markets are having a profound impact on the global bond, commodity, currency, and stock markets. Full Story
The problem isn’t that the US economy fell by $300 billion in real terms between 2007 and 2009. The more relevant issue for long-term investors is that the private economy fell by $1.3 trillion, even while total federal, state and local government spending rose by $1 trillion. Full Story
Jim Rogers doesn’t mince words. When a person as remarkably successful and accomplished as Jim Rogers, and having long experience, states that the official statistics produced by government economists and views expressed in mainstream financial news outlets are incorrect, or disingenuous, one must take pause. Objectively speaking, for a majority of investors, views that are at odds with those of Jim Rogers are probably wrong. Full Story
I have to wonder, are we entering the ending phase of this cyclical bull? For some time now I've noticed the similarities between the `02-`07 cyclical bull and what we've experienced since March of last year. The one difference is that this time we've truncated the middle phase of the bull. I suspect that was a direct result of the massive liquidity Bernanke ... and all central banks have pumped into the system. Full Story
Gold remains on track (as far as our template). Here is the potential bullish outcome. The longer Gold holds above $1160 and that trendline, the more likely the bullish outcome. Full Story
There is a natural order of some things in economics that no central bankster looting scheme can forever suspend. One of those econ realities is that, over long periods of time, humanity gets better at making stuff and delivering it to markets, with greater cost efficiency. Full Story
Bankers have a problem and because they do, so do we. In modern economies, bankers have two roles. As central bankers, overseers of the financial system, they are charged with maintaining economic order. As investment bankers, i.e. opportunistic predators, they profit from whatever opportunity presents itself. In the US, the former have now succumbed to the latter. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Sean Brodrick - 3 June, 2010
Weiss Research Natural Resources Analyst Sean Brodrick expects the bull market for precious metals to run for "quite some time," with gold hitting $1,450 /oz. by year-end and silver at $25 not long after. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 3 June, 2010
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the US declined 0.1% in April, which was not too bad, especially since it followed a 1.3% gain in March, which is not to mention a 0.4% rise in February. Full Story
Gotta love those inflationists! We enjoy getting in their faces now and then because their nutty ideas, particularly that inflation is worth worrying about at the moment, can only confuse and misdirect people who are struggling to sort out the facts for themselves. Full Story
Natural forces are at work in Europe, powerful forces, in fact forces that are not evident. It is amazing how little the financial analysts notice the forces at all. Since the year 2007, a hidden force began to put pressure on the European Union financial underpinning. Like any fiat currency, the foundation resorts to debt. Full Story
IT'S PRETTY RARE for gold to make a new monthly high for the year in May, let alone for all time. But when it does (or so history suggests), new buyers might expect better-still prices come Christmas – and gold in 2010 just happened to finish May with a new record monthly close against all major currencies bar the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar. Full Story
Proper planning with your finances is incomplete until you consider the endgame consequences of your investment decisions today. So, what are the tax consequences of selling gold, gold ETFs, and gold stocks? Full Story
One of the most famous quotations of Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises is that “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency involved.” Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 2 June, 2010
We believe an inflationary depression began in February of 2009, and little has changed. Since then factory output has increased, as have inventories and other outward signs, such as retail sales. We believe that one-year spurt is ending, unless a new stimulus program is put in place. Full Story
Austrian economists place the blame for the crisis of 2008-2009 on the Federal Reserve, in particular, for creating the money needed to keep interest rates low to fund the housing bubble. The federal government's policies that aimed to put every American into a house regardless of credit-worthiness was a major contributing factor. But without a seemingly endless amount of credit that only the Fed could provide, those policies would've arrived stillborn. Full Story
For both GoldMoney and the secular precious metals bull market, it has been quite a decade. Gold, silver and platinum have risen significantly since the turn of the century regardless of the currency one uses to calculate the gains. Meanwhile, global stock markets have failed to protect purchasing power and many are breaking down once again. Full Story
Thanks to the surge in precious metals prices, we've seen quite a few new businesses enter the scene to either buy your gold or silver, or to sell you gold or silver. Some are reputable, honest, and actually care about what you get for your precious metals. Others are sly, overpriced, and likely riddled with salespeople far too interested in their own commission. Full Story
In our previous essay we've commented on the precious metals stocks, and since that time we've received many questions about the yellow metal itself, we would like to provide you with a more information regarding that particular topic. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Sven Del Pozzo - 2 June, 2010
Sven Del Pozzo, until recently a senior oil and gas analyst with C.K. Cooper and Co., is nothing if not honest. In this candid interview with The Energy Report, Del Pozzo discusses the importance of Gulf of Mexico oil exploration to the U.S. economy, the need for more reflective oil price markers, how shale gas is keeping investors awake at night and oil and gas companies that could be ripe for the picking. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 2 June, 2010
I was as surprised, as many were, to see that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) actually declined in April, dropping to 2.2% inflation from March’s 2.3% inflation. Full Story
British Petroleum’s shares have shed 40 percent of their value in the last six weeks, falling from $61 to a low yesterday of $36, but if sellers keep up the pace for just a few more days, the company could be trading at salvage prices by next week. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 1 June, 2010
Traditional thinking has a pat answer for this question, “High prices cut demand!” This doesn’t seem to be working in the gold market. At the turn of the century, in the days when gold was a ‘barbarous relic’ the gold price stood at just under $300 an ounce. Since then there has been an increase in barbarians, or the market doesn’t share that view? What has happened since then has been a major, revolutionary change in the structure of the gold and silver markets. Full Story
A special drawing right is made up 44% of the US Dollar, 34% of Euros, 11% of Japanese Yen and 11% of the Great British Pound. These figures change every five years as a matter of a vote, and a reallocation is made in part by calculating the change in influence each nation has in international trade. Full Story
News is out that European banks will have to write off 20% of their loan books. The full news on Spain is not out yet, their banks cannot get reasonably priced funding. How can we get growth under these conditions? Despite all this the appetite for risk is apparently returning at least for now. This increasing appetite could last for anything between 1 day and a few months. Full Story
The debate currently taking place between gold bulls and gold bears is whether or not the central banks of the world are adding to the money supply of the world, or if money supply is contracting. Full Story
The European Commission brought out the big guns. In a move intentionally reminiscent of the US TARP program, leaders of the continent’s major economies promised to keep throwing money at the problem in bulk until some of it stuck. The set of charts below (courtesy of the Financial Times of London) gives a good graphical representation of the crisis to date. Full Story
Make no mistake about it, what is happening in Greece and Thailand right now will be coming soon to a theatre near you as well, with a war between our bloated bureaucracy and the public at center. It’s important to understand that the weaker periphery states in the Western alliance is just the beginning in a global affair Full Story
Those who know Mr. Denninger know that he, well, for lack of a better word, hates Gold. It only goes to show the level of disinformation and ignorance prevalent in our society when even smart people like Karl fail to get it. From what I hear anybody even mentioning the word Gold runs the risk of being permanently banned from one of his "forums". In a recent commentary entitled "Ten Things for 2010" he was at it again bashing Gold. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 1 June, 2010
Grandfather-economic-report.com is famous for presenting whole constellations, in graphic form, of horrors about the mess that fiat money and government, in the hands of incompetent do-gooders, has allowed. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discussion and listener's questions. 2nd Hour: Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute Robert Kiyosaki, Richdad.com Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 31 May, 2010
The Gold market is holding and building a base at just above $1,200. We have been e-mailed by some people saying that the gold price should soon plunge, possibly to as low as $850. The gold market doesn’t agree, that’s why it’s not falling. Perhaps it would be appropriate to look at the main factors why gold should fall and why it should rise. Full Story
All gold bugs have fond memories of the year 1979. In that year, the price of gold rose from $250/oz. to $600/oz. The reason was not hard to find. Prices in the U.S. that year rose by 13.3%. The newspapers were screaming, “Double Digit Inflation.” Gold was going up sometimes as much as $50 per day. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 31 May, 2010
Part of the deflationary mode is borrowers are paying down debt and saving at a 3.4% rate. It could be the elitists, as we speculated months ago, want to take down the entire world financial system in the next 1-1/2 to 2 years. Hi Ho stimulus. The fiat Ponzi scheme is collapsing. Full Story
We had expected the broad stockmarket and the resource sector to stabilize and start to recover last week and they did, and while we are likely to see further recovery in the days and perhaps weeks ahead, there have been some ominous developments in the recent past that we would be most unwise to ignore. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 31 May, 2010
Economists and policy makers seem to want to believe impossible things in regards to the current debt crisis percolating throughout the world. And believing in them, they are adopting policies that will result in, well, tragedy. Today we address what passes for wisdom among the political crowd and see where we are headed, especially in Europe. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Carmel Daniele - 31 May, 2010
London-based CD Capital Founder Carmel Daniele has seen these sorts of market jitters before, and insists there is little to worry about in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. "Most people sell in May and go away. It happens every year," she says. Full Story
What follows will read like an indictment on our entire economic system. But underlying my (relatively mild) harangue is an observation that people are ignoring the most obvious bubble out there; that is, the bubble in U.S. government bonds. The following is my attempt to figure out why. Full Story
The magnitude of current private and government debt, coupled with massive unfunded contingent liabilities for promises of future services to their citizens, will prove to be impossible for many nations to fund. Massive inflation in the money supply will become the preferred vehicle to deflect the default monster and will result in vastly devalued currencies and price inflation as a prelude to default. Full Story
The M3 money supply in the US is contracting at a rate that is only comparable with the period 1929-1933. This is the hidden killer that the global economy now faces. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 31 May, 2010
The big news, of course, is that “Private-sector scientists led by Craig Venter have developed the first living cell controlled by synthetic DNA.” This is, I think you will agree with me and the rest of the world, completely amazing! Full Story
Bottom line: COT report reveals COMEX commercial traders cover shorts modestly for gold, COMEX swap dealers cash in the shorts they capped the silver market with last week. Indicators more bullish than bearish, but acting strangely. Full Story
It was a strange week indeed as markets appeared to move higher, only to lose gains near the end of the day giving false confidence to market participants. The question remains whether this is the start of the second leg of the bear market. Full Story
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