Academic terms to me are just that, academic terms. We’ve now seen three consecutive months of job loss along with loss of growth in our economy. The revisions in January and February tell the story. The USA has now seen 3 consecutive months of job loss which is part of the definition of what make up a recession. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 4 April, 2008
-More bottoms than a burlesque show…rebounds that turn even base metals into precious ones… -The fuzzy edges of a moral system…China! What to make of it? -An intriguing investment - in Iceland…the crisis of the countryside arrives in the city…and more! Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 4 April, 2008
The focus in the gold market has always been on the $ price of gold and yet we have ample evidence of why we should not price gold in the US$, just as the oil price should not be priced in the US$. The fall of the $ has clouded the state of the global economy, its monetary system, as well as most of its markets. The gold and silver price has moved fairly closely with the € in the opposite direction to the $. But should it be attached so faithfully to the €? Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 4 April, 2008
For precious-metals stock traders, weathering outsized volatility is a fact of life. Yet again over the last few weeks this truth was really driven home. The flagship HUI gold-stock index experienced some neck-snapping swings. And this generated much angst for those not yet steeled against such extreme volatility. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 4 April, 2008
Those blindsided by the recent financial meltdown are now loudly blaming the free market for its failure to police its own excesses, and are calling for greater regulation to prevent future disasters. But for those who clearly observed the problems developing (in high definition slow motion) the blame can be directed squarely at the policies of the Greenspan/Bernanke Federal Reserve. As has been the case countless times in history, the free market will now pay the price for government incompetence. Full Story
YOU DON'T HAVE TO be a rabid libertarian or Marxist historian with leather patches on his jacket to look at the current world banking crisis and ask "Cui bono...?" Full Story
Indeed, abolition of the U.S. Federal Reserve would allow the establishment of a Constitutionally authorized authentic National Bank, as well as the re-linking of the U.S. Dollar to Gold and Silver, and savings of at least $36 billion per year in interest payments to The Fed. We have set out our proposals in this regard in detail elsewhere. Full Story
Do you have a troubled friend or relative whose misguided attempts to solve their problems only make the situation worse? As human beings, it is hard to see our own short-comings. But to ever truly solve our problems, we must strive to understand them. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 4 April, 2008
In our 31st March commentary we discussed the errors we saw in Gary North's opinion that the Fed is deflating. Strangely, Mr. North took this as a personal attack and launched a personal counter-attack at http://www.garynorth.com/public/3328.cfm. Full Story
The tumultuous 1st quarter is now behind us and what a quarter it was. VOLATILITY IS OPPORTUNITY and wonderful fireworks of volatility exploded across all asset classes providing bucket loads of OPPORTUNITIES for prepared investors. Your investment portfolios should be considerably higher in value, for rarely do we see moves of this magnitude across all sectors almost without interruption. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 4 April, 2008
Well, then, you're an idiot, Frank! A big, stupid moron! In fact, all you stupid people in this bar are stupid, because you all think that you are not going to be destroyed by the fires of an inflationary hell… Full Story
The Street has been bracing all week for horrendous payroll news this morning, so the numbers would have to be grim indeed to shock investors into a headline selloff. We expect the opposite, actually – a short-squeeze rally in stocks amd the dollar – if the news is anything less than ghastly. A decline of 60,000 non-farm jobs is expected, but that doesn’t sound too bad to us considering the size of the layoffs that have been occurring in recent weeks. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor – Global Money Trends - 3 April, 2008
It was “April Fools” day, and Wall Street was busy spinning bad financial news into bouts of irrational exuberance. News of a $19 billion write-down of toxic sub-prime mortgage debt at Swiss bank UBS and a $4 billion hit at Deutsche Bank might have sparked a panic sell-off in global stock markets a few weeks ago. But on “April Fools” day, the Dow Jones Industrials soared 391-points, and the broader S&P 500 Index jumped 3.6%, posting its best 2nd-quarter start since 1938. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 3 April, 2008
-Want a sure bet? Bet on deleveraging…the only place where deflation and inflation make common cause… -So many foreclosures, so little time…apartment sales in Manhattan are at an 18-year low - but prices are still higher than ever! -Argentina may face worst unrest since the 1970's…a neighbor you would definitely want to lend you some sugar…and more! Full Story
By this analysis my conclusion is that many Chinese builders, and contractors flush with cash from their businesses put their money to work in the stock market last summer and began to pull it out just before the Chinese New Year to begin to build up inventories of copper and other materials needed for the upcoming busy building season. Full Story
I have forecast that at some point the physical silver market will dominate the paper silver market. The question I ask now is, “Are we there yet?” Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 3 April, 2008
We believe the biggest costs to the gold and silver mining industry are history and that should positively affect the bottom line for producers. Profit margins should improve steadily at these prices as the year moves on. Needless to say, higher prices for gold and silver will embellish the results. Progress in prices since June 2000 has been retarded by market manipulation by our government, but in spite of that progress has been good. From here on out we should see sharply higher share prices. Full Story
Many readers of my column have asked me how much gold I think there is in Fort Knox, and how much gold I think is being hoarded by Americans that may be available for coinage in case the U.S. Mint is re-opened to gold. I don't have the figures or estimates. From my perspective these figures do not matter any more. What matters is whether confidence can be restored to the extent that gold will start flowing to the Mint. Full Story
The price action for Gold and Silver appears to be in a wave (2) or wave (B) correction. We should see the price of Gold and Silver advance to the recent highs attained on Mar 26th 2008. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 3 April, 2008
And as more Insane Economic News Of The Day (IENOTD), the Fed's personal stash of U.S. government debt is down another gigantic $48 billion last week! $48 billion! In one week! One freaking week! Full Story
Buyers paused yesterday, presumably to sniff the air for any lingering trace of the fear that permeated Wall Street just a week ago. What a difference a day makes! Recall that as March drew to a close, the death-watch list had come to include not only Lehman Brothers and some other banking stalwarts, but the indomitable Goldman Sachs. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 2 April, 2008
-The Dow heads up, and our Trade of the Decade heads down…still not convinced we've reached the bottom of the decline… -Lines for food stamps in New York…maybe there's no 'Great Depression' but there's plenty of depressing financial statistics… -The gap between the haves and the have-nots continue to widen…no matter how much money you have, it never seems to be enough…and more! Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 2 April, 2008
As we watch the credit crunch wend its toxic way across the developed world, we are seeing defensive action by some nations to lower its dependence on the U.S.A. so as to duck the recession that is now hitting there. The future of the U.S. in global trade has been damaged, with its currency’s weakness providing some defense for the nation. Full Story
Gold dropped by a hefty $33 yesterday, vindicating our near-term bearish stance, but what was remarkable was that while Precious Metals stocks dropped substantially, the drop was nowhere near commensurate with the size of the drop in gold. Regardless of the extent to which this can be attributed to the strong rise in the broad market, it was a bullish sign. Full Story
AFTER NOTING an historic move higher in the Gold Price last month, maybe we should be wary of picking a bottom today. Cracking above 40,000 Deutsche Marks Per Kilo, the price of gold – when converted back from the Euros that German investors now clutch – promptly sank almost 14% from that 27-year top. Full Story
As the interim bottoming process continues, the market’s undeniable message is that better days are ahead and with it will come an end to the endless stream of bad news and a better economic and financial market outlook. Are you prepared to take advantage of it? Full Story
Record demand, no increase in supply and sharp price sell-offs? Your head should be spinning. That cannot occur in a free market. It can only occur in a rigged or manipulated market. That this is clearly a case of the COMEX futures markets dictating and setting the price to the cash market is as blatant a violation of basic commodity law as is possible. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 2 April, 2008
Mr. Dunkelberg is more direct, and says that people who depend on their little bits of interest that they make on their saved money (like the elderly) 'are being screwed by the Fed'… Full Story
Now, we have no problem with the Journal attacking Hillary’s $10 billion “Rebuild America Plan” or whatever other Keynesian quackery she and her fellow politicians would inflict on taxpayers. But for the newspaper to assert that the Fed has got things under control is just a bit much. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 1 April, 2008
-The Fed's primary mission is to protect the nation's money and credit?! -A shop owner in Paris overheard commenting on how much he likes Americans…executives admit their salaries are ridiculous… -Alan Greenspan apologizes…and more news to take you into the month of April! Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 1 April, 2008
Yesterday (March 31st), Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced the laying of the government’s foundation stone for the next big financial bubble, heralding an era of hyperinflation and probable further runs on the U.S. dollar. Full Story
The market works better without these rescues. Only by appropriate economic reward to the cautious, when they are right and everyone else is wrong, will caution sit well beside risk-taking in the financial system. The real threat to New York's and London's continued dominance of the world's future financial system is government regulation itself. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 1 April, 2008
These past few weeks have provided an unfortunate opportunity to discuss inflation. The dollar index has reached new all-time lows. The total money supply, M3, as calculated by private sources, is growing at a disturbing 17% rate. The Fed is pumping dollars into the economy at an alarming rate. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 1 April, 2008
Considering the extraordinary measures* taken by the Fed over the past four months in order to inflate (grow the money supply), the idea that the Fed is purposefully deflating (contracting the money supply) is preposterous. So, what should we make of the small decline in the monetary base? Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 1 April, 2008
Computer, research the economic history of the planet Earth and all the planets in this galaxy, and find any instance of a healthy economic boom that started after 'the biggest orgy of speculation and debt creation' the planet had ever seen! Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 31 March, 2008
-It's always dangerous when people have time to stop and think…Hank Paulson spearheads a new financial regulation plan… -A look at the 'day the dream died'…the U.S. markets are surprisingly not as bad as those overseas… -A sad anniversary…taking down the teenagers, one by one…and more! Full Story
Picking things up from yesterday, first perhaps we should expand more on just how much ‘instant credit’ is being created by the Fed’s new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), and why this will not matter in terms of supporting our bubble economy(s) in the end. Why won’t it matter? In a nutshell, and a truism that fits circumstances to a ‘T’, ‘you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink’. Full Story
By: David Galland, Casey Research - 31 March, 2008
At least if you use the value of the dollar as the metrics of success, the staunch defense of which is supposed to be job #1 of the Fed. If you are looking for further proof of that contention, your contemplations need extend only far enough to notice that the greenback has lost some 80% of its purchasing power since its link to gold was broken in 1971. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 31 March, 2008
Well, now that gold has surpassed 1,000 an ounce it should be preparing for its dramatic descent. The fact is that the common man has been brainwashed for 20 years that gold is bad and evil. Now that it is over 900 he knows by all his learning that gold should soon drop through the floor. Small investors all around the country are selling their physical gold for paper dollars. Full Story
If we invest in gold and silver—the anathema of private bankers, we can survive the crisis they caused. The economic carnage set in motion by government’s pact with private bankers will affect everyone—workers, savers, entrepreneurs, investors, pensioners, the helpless, as well the innocent and the guilty. Yes, bankers, too, will lose at least some of their wealth, if not all. Full Story
When trying to predict short term moves in the precious metals (or any economic good), I find it very important to keep in mind the longer term period. Once the longer period is in the bag, the shorter period becomes much easier to analyze. To this end, I first divided the stock market into 4 levels of trend: Full Story
The week started okay but ended on a sour note. It’s not the time to panic yet but not the time to plunge in either. One should have well placed stops, relax and watch the action in comfort. Let others tear their hair out worrying what will happen next. Full Story
This is no mere recession we are entering; rather, it is a darkening prelude to hard times whose eventual depths may currently lie beyond imagining. Since August, the U.S. has thrown more than a trillion dollars of rescue money at the banking system in a desperate attempt to restore confidence. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & market forecast. Spotlight Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: -Randal Hardy -Jim Rogers Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 30 March, 2008
The derivative securities known as "toxic waste" that are in the process of taking down the entire worldwide financial system and that were created by the obtuse "financial engineering" efforts of the halfwit Illuminists who came up with this scheme, were characterized by Warren Buffet some years ago as "financial weapons of mass destruction." The mortgage-backed securities known as MBS's, which took on various forms such as CDO's, CMO's, SIV's and other subprime, and now Alt-A and prime, alphabet derivatives, form the part of the WMD arsenal known as "neutron bombs." Full Story
Last week we got the expected relief rally in gold and silver and closed out profitable Call option trades mid-week as the rally topped out. Following the violent plunge the week before, the relative tranquility of the past week has provided an opportunity to reappraise the situation, and the implications of the plunge, which only a week ago had been thought to be just the steep initial phase of a correction that has already largely run its course, are now thought to be considerably more bearish for the intermediate term than was previously the case. Full Story
For reasons set out in full in the Gold Market update we are now adopting a more cautious tack with both gold and silver than that expressed in last week‘s updates, with the steep drop in the Precious Metals over a week ago now being considered to mark the start of a deeper and more prolonged corrective phase. Full Story
Regardless of all the money the Fed has thrown at the system and the constant lowering of interest rates, the economy remains in the doldrums. The sub prime debacle has much further to go and it will drag other toxic derivatives into the fire that as of yet, remain unknown to all but a few. By the end of the year they will be front page news. Full Story
Basically, the perfect storm has been gathering and it’s going to fuel a mega rise that will likely last for years to come. We’ve often discussed the most important reasons why but since these markets have been picking up steam, we’ll review these basics again. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 30 March, 2008
Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home sales since the housing market started to decline last year. I was in my car and listening to CNBC as commentators started to celebrate the bottom of the housing market. Since the credit crisis has its roots in the US housing market, and will require a resolution of the housing market in order for credit markets to return to whatever will look like normalcy in the future, it is of more than passing interest to get a handle on the actual state of the housing market. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 30 March, 2008
How in the hell can the global glut of derivatives be 37 times as big as total, global GDP? Hell, just a yield of 0.1%, a tenth of a percent, would mean that $516 billion would be needed just to annually service the debt of that $516 trillion! Hahahaha! Full Story
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