By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com - 4 November, 2016
Doug Casey is interviewed by Peter Spina,President of GoldSeek.com, on the latest developments in gold, financial markets, gold stocks, a political-election gold stock speculation that could go up 10 x times if Trump wins plus much more! Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 4 November, 2016
With 2016’s contentious US presidential election just days away now, traders are still trying to game the outcome of this tightening race. With a Hillary Clinton victory long priced in, the mounting odds Donald Trump will prevail have big implications for major markets. One critical place traders should look for clues to how Americans will vote is the stock markets. Recent stock performance really sways election results. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 4 November, 2016
The gold stocks continue to correct their epic +150% rebound that began in January and ran into the summer. Last week it was the poor relative strength in the miners that hinted the correction had more to go in both time and price. This week, it was the miners failure at a confluence of resistance, even with Gold trading above $1300, that argued for more weakness ahead. While most of the damage has already been done, our work argues for more weakness before a buying opportunity. Full Story
Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., outlines his new book, Sale of A Lifetime a FREE BOOK, requiring only shipping costs. Our guest questions the soundness of the global economy, citing Brexit, the DB scandal, etc. Unlike the 2008 credit crisis / Great Recession, due to unfavorable demographics, and an aging population the developed world will suffer. Key investment nations include India and South East Asia, could emerge as the de facto economic powerhouses. Full Story
In every country where a revolution has taken place (whether it be a “soft” revolution, or a violent overthrow), those who are part of the winning team make a point of glorifying the revolution and all the “good” that it has brought. For this reason, the inhabitants of most countries where a revolution has taken place at some point in their history, will believe that the revolution was positive. In countries where that revolution was opposed, the people will most likely regard the revolution as negative. Full Story
Let’s start from the commitment to overshoot the inflation target. Generally speaking, this change is very similar to the hike of the inflation target, especially since the BoJ has not defined the “stable manner”. It may assure investors that the BoJ will continue its loose monetary policy even if inflation reaches the 2-percent target. However, nobody knows what “stable manner” means and how long the inflation rate should remain above the target to please the BoJ, so the promise reduces the transparency of the BoJ’s actions. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 4 November, 2016
Despite the popularity of doing so, subtracting the percentage change in the CPI or some other price index from the current nominal interest rate will not result in a realistic or reasonable estimate of the current ‘real’ interest rate. The method of real interest rate calculation summarised above is wrong in two different ways, each of which is sufficient to render the result invalid. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 4 November, 2016
The era of the mighty U.S. major oil industry is coming to an end as the country’s largest petroleum company is in big trouble. While ExxonMobil has been the most profitable U.S. oil company in the past, it suffered its worst year on record. For example, just four years ago, ExxonMobil enjoyed a $45 billion net income profit in 2012. Now compare that to a total $5 billion net income gain for the first three-quarters of 2016. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 4 November, 2016
They don’t ring a bell at the top, as the old saying goes. In retrospect, we can see that it very likely occurred last summer with a series of three record price peaks, roughly equal, that we were too bored in the dog days of August to care about. Bored we no longer are, however. The election is going to change things very dramatically for all Americans regardless of who wins. About the only thing we can be certain of is that the Fed will NOT raise interest rates. Full Story
If you hold the keys-to-the-kingdom and someone comes along and request that you share those keys what are the odds you are going to honor such a request? Let’s say you posses the power, financially and militarily, to bully whoever you would like, along with the keys-to-the-kingdom. If you already hold all the power why would you even entertain any such idea? Odds are, not going to happen. Full Story
News has just emerged in the gold market that the giant Swiss precious metals refiner, Argor-Heraeus, has held discussions to be acquired, and that the likely outcome is an acquisition by a private equity group. This private equity group is believed to be London-based WRM CapInvest, part of Zurich headquartered WRM Capital. Other interested buyers are also believed to have examined a bid for Argor-Heraeus, including Japanese refining group Asahi and Swiss refining group MKS-PAMP, however, neither of these are thought to be in the running at this stage. Full Story
Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments returns to the show. The currency expert notes that the 2 year dollar rally may be little more than a short squeeze. The greenback is more than 2 standard deviations above the moving average a sign of "overbought" conditions, indicating the potential to return to the mean. Competing currencies appear to be nearing a bottom, given the negative interest rate scenario. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 3 November, 2016
The fact that Wednesday’s bounce from this Hidden Pivot support was weak and lasted for less than a day strongly suggests that the selling is the start of something more powerful. We’ll know soon enough, since, from our technical perspective, the hallmark of a bear market is downtrending ABCD patterns that consistently exceed their ‘D’ targets. Conversely, we should also start to see abcd corrective rallies that fail to achieve their ‘d’ targets. Full Story
A week ago it looked like the US government was destined to end up firmly – maybe even more firmly — in the hands of the banks, public sector unions and defense contractors. Trump was imploding and the markets were basking in the prospect of never-ending liquidity from a re-energized Fed. And safe-haven assets like gold were being dumped in favor of growth stocks and the like. Full Story
Part of the reason why bitcoin has seen such a price resurgence is because of the increased demand for the currency in the Chinese market. You would think that the Chinese economy would be doing well after the Yuan’s SDR basket inclusion, but in spite of that, it continues to depreciate – hitting a 6-year low in October in conjunction with an estimated total of over $573.2 billion in Chinese capital outflows so far this year. Full Story
Cambridge House International Inc. and Katusa Research will co-produce the Silver and Gold Summit 2016. The 2016 Silver and Gold Summit will be held in San Francisco, California November 14 and 15. This is the second year occuring in San Francisco having previously being relocated there from Spokane, Washington, where it was held for the past several years. Full Story
This is simply not good for Hillary. With only six days remaining in this critical election, possibly the most important in modern times, Hillary is witnessing a complete and utter collapse in her support. She was witnessed this historic collapse due to the FBI bombshell that has rocked the world, making her the first ever Presidential candidate to be under active investigation by the FBI, WHILE running for the highest seat of power in the country. Full Story
On the silver chart, I have highlighted two patterns that appear similar. I have marked them 1 to 6 to show how they might compare. Both patterns start from a significant silver top. Both patterns represent the end part or handle of a cup and handle-type pattern. If the comparison is justified, then we are currently just after point 6, the point where a major breakout occurred. Full Story
It just doesn’t matter much whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump wins the election, at least in terms of gold and silver market fundamentals. That said, the contest itself is signaling something important precious metals investors should be watching intently. This campaign is dragging whatever prestige is still associated with the Office of President into the mud. Few voters on either side bother to spend much time arguing the greatness of their candidate. When both Trump and Clinton carry more baggage than American Airlines, it’s easier to focus on their opponent’s shortcomings. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 2 November, 2016
The futures did everything we’d asked of them and more, generating a fresh bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart in the process. The next bullish benchmark lies at 18.940, equal to an ‘external’ peak recorded October 3 on the way down. The futures will need to exceed that number on the next thrust to re-energize the intraday charts. Rather than get too far ahead of ourselves predicting the next move, let’s see how it unfolds. If a rally like the hypothetical one I’ve sketched (see inset) easily exceeds its ‘d’ target, that would imply there’s ample buying power to push this vehicle above not only the external peak at 18.940, but the more daunting one above it at 19.770. How easily this is accomplished, assuming it happens at all, can tell us whether the rally is just a bear tease or the real-McCoy resumption of the 2016 bull market in bullion. Full Story
These two factors are clearly in play today as the metals move higher in a surge we've been expecting since late last week. However, these gains might just as quickly be reversed so there are a few indicators you'd better be watching. As mentioned in the title of this post, both physical demand and fear seem to be driving price today. How can we measure physical demand? Sometimes it shows up as a lack of overnight "London Monkey" trading. Full Story
There’s a rising tide of discontent sweeping over America, just as it has in Western Europe, most of South America and the Middle East – which shortly, will consume China, Japan, and the rest of the world. In some cases, it’s due to actual, specific crises – as in “vulnerable” second and third world countries like Venezuela, Brazil, Turkey, Cyprus, Greece, Syria, and Iraq. In others – particularly, “first world” Western nations, defined largely by the power of their printing presses – it’s the cumulative impact of years of relentlessly disastrous monetary, fiscal, and foreign policy, creating unprecedented post-War political instability; widespread poverty and helplessness; creeping rights forfeiture; and wealth disparity not experienced since feudal times. Full Story
A week ago, I predicted gold would rally straight to trend line resistance at $1285, and recoil from there. That’s exactly what happened. So, what now? Well, it’s going to take a few days of closing above $1285 to launch a serious rally, and even that technical action won’t be enough, without fundamental news that is positive for gold. The critically important jobs report will be released on Friday at 830AM, and the US election follows that just a few days later. Indian festival buying is also accelerating, which should act as good background support for a big fear trade oriented rally. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum with a price surge of 5.09 percent. On Tuesday, South African news reported that plans are underway to manufacture more forklifts powered by hydrogen for local and international markets. Legislation in 2007 created the Hydrogen South Africa Strategy to develop vehicles powered by hydrogen through the utilization of the country’s platinum group metal resources. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 1 November, 2016
The chart shows that FCBs stopped being net buyers of US government debt in December-2013 and have been relentless net-sellers since December of last year. This tells us that FCBs have made a concerted attempt over the past 10 months to weaken the US$. This, I suspect, is a reason that the Dollar Index has remained range-bound this year to date despite the upward pressure exerted by US$-bullish fundamentals. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 1 November, 2016
As interest in silver investment expands throughout the world, the South African Mint will produce its first 1 oz Silver Krugerrand, to be released this November. This is quite remarkable as the South African Mint has been producing Gold Krugerrands since 1967. Matter-a-fact, the South African Mint has produced over 50 million oz of Gold Krugerrands over the past 49 years. It is the largest Official Gold coin producer in the world. The U.S. Mint’s Gold Eagle comes in second with over 22 million oz produced since the program started in 1987. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 1 November, 2016
The chart on display today returns us to a 2090.25 downside target that has been in play for five weeks. It still looks like a winner to me, even if it is taking forever to get there. Shorts entering at any point along the way would have survived without too much punishment, but the reward for enduring the stresses this might have entailed works out so far to about $1.78/hour. I have included in this calculation hours spent sleeping, or at least trying to sleep, since night-time offers no respite for those with open positions. Full Story
These three things – soaring Chinese debt, disruptions in the money market, and the end of the auto loan bubble – matter vastly more than which party runs what part of the government. When one or all (or some other problem like Deutsche Bank) blow up in 2017, deficit spending will soar, interest rates will be forced down (to the extent that that’s possible) and new rules will be imposed on whatever freely-functioning markets remain. Full Story
Clearly, the American public was bamboozled into surrendering their rights for the benefit of those who prosper through the instrumentality of the state, which they were assured included them. The Economist and other establishment voices are saying this: That money in your pocket — you don’t really own it, not if the state decides to claim part or all of it. Money has value because it can be used in exchange for other goods. If some committee can reduce the value of your money without your consent, they’re no different than common thieves. Full Story
First, this article does not oppose one candidate or the other. Second, the “powers-that-be” have selected HRC as their choice for President to implement their agenda. Third, in spite of voting machine “glitches”, the popular vote could go either way. Texas County Enacts “Emergency Paper Ballots” Regardless of who the voting machines select as winner, the following questions have been mostly ignored by both candidates. Full Story
So here we are, eight days before America picks its poison, with most national polls showing a win for Hillary Clinton. If she pulls it off, she’ll become not only the first woman and first first lady to rise to the country’s highest office but also the first Democrat to succeed another two-term Democrat since Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson in 1837. Full Story
Are you worried about a market drop? I’m not, we’ve been preparing for what’s coming for weeks. Why do I think the markets will be dropping? Globally bond yields are spiking. With bond yields rising, earnings yields will follow. The only way for earnings yields to rise is for stock prices to FALL. Long bonds lead stocks to the upside this year. They’re now leading DOWN. Full Story
The Federal Reserve has pushed the mantra that they want to ‘normalize’ rates following a period of Quantitative Easing. In general the Fed has two objectives; firstly to ensure that unemployment falls and secondly that inflation heads north. These two requirements have largely been fulfilled so the expectation was to that the ‘normalization’ programme would be implemented with four or so rate hikes this year. The reality is that there haven’t been any rate hikes, but we have had a lot of talk suggesting that they are in the wings. The Fed speak is now falling on death ears as the Feds credibility has been severely dented. Full Story
It’s a record; the global debt colossus is now in excess of $152 trillion. And derivatives monster – you better be sitting down for this one – because it’s grown to in excess of a staggering $2 quadrillion. There’s no putting this into perspective anymore other than characterizing the situation as a high altitude ballooning experiment that has spiraled out of control – dangerously out of control. Don’t try and tell this to the globalists of the world however; they want to borrow more in perpetuity (see example here), and they hope you are sufficiently distracted not to notice (see example here). Full Story
Profits are the mother’s milk of economic, stock market, and portfolio growth. Employment and tax revenues are driven by profits, too. Nothing good happens unless there are profits and lots of them. So it is no wonder that we pay attention to the earnings of companies in the stock market quite closely. Full Story
Twice this week, the prices of the metals spiked. Once on early Monday due to a cause unclear to us. The second on Friday late morning (Arizona time) due to, get this, additional problems for Democrat Hillary Clinton. The stock market dropped at the same time that the prices of the metals surged. Call it the confidence speculation. Full Story
Bill Murphy grew up in Glen Ridge, N.J., and graduated from the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University in 1968. In his senior year he broke all the Ivy League single-year pass-receving records. A Harvard-trained geologist and former aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations, Byron King is our resident gold and mining expert, and we are proud to have him on board as the editor of Rickards’ Gold Speculator and a contributor to Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence. Full Story
Despite the arrogance, hubris, and lying (obviously – its election season!), we have never seen a cycle that has be more absent in terms of policy details worthy of analysis. Outrageous claims about job creation, making America strong, and so forth are issued, but there is no substance. We have tried on numerous occasions to find enough specifics to even perform cursory analysis and it is just not there. It is very reminiscent of Nancy Pelosi telling America in 2010 that if they wanted to read the healthcare bill they had to pass it first. This is what passes for economic jurisprudence in the Republic the founders gave us all those years ago. Full Story
It now looks like gold’s correction is done and its intermediate base pattern is completing, and if so then we are at an excellent entry point for many better PM stocks, which have been savagely beaten down over the past several months - a necessary correction following their outsized runup earlier in the year. On its 1-year chart we can see that gold’s corrective action from early July has brought it all the way back to its steadily rising 200-day moving average, a classic buy spot, where a potential intermediate base has formed. Full Story
Due to their blind adherence to the fundamentals of the market, many not only did not see the high coming in 2011, but called for the market to rally every single week over the 4 years since that high was struck. And, it seems that the ire of one such “adherent” has risen over the last week to the extent that he has chosen to take umbrage with my primary analysis methodology, despite its proven accuracy during that time. Yet, he claims that I am “incorrect” in my “approach to forecasting the value of gold and silver.” Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 30 October, 2016
The notion that the gold price is based on the economics of “Supply And Demand” turns out to be incorrect as the cost of production is the leading factor. This is also true for most commodities and energy. Unfortunately, economists and most analysts in the precious metals community will continue to believe that the economic principle of supply and demand determines price. If we look at the data provided in this article, the individual will see how closely related the cost of gold production is to the spot price. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 30 October, 2016
You have heard it before from us and probably elsewhere. The miners lead Gold. We have seen this every major turn dating back 16 years and it can also be the case with respect to short and medium term trends. While the precious metals sector has rallied over the past few weeks, the rally has been weak and the gold stocks relative weakness in recent days bodes negatively for the sector. Full Story
In the Netherlands we have a financial newspaper that prints on pink paper and is named “Het Financieel Dagblad”. Basically it’s the Dutch equivalent of the Financial Times. A few weeks ago I was interviewed by two of their reporters, Joost van Kuppeveld and Lenneke Arts. Today the interview was published as part of a series of interviews with gold experts, among others, with myself and Aerdt Houben, Director Financial Markets at the Dutch central bank (DNB). Full Story
As unendurable as I believe a Hillary presidency would be — with its suffocating smog of endless scandals and swirl of smoke clouds from all the wars she would continue to instigate — as she so clearly did while senator and then secretary of state — a Hillary presidency would have one great benefit: it would in fairly short order bring clarity for the entire nation to the fact that the nation’s economic ruin is the fault of the establishment that they’ve been electing for years (something about which many are obviously in great denial or they wouldn’t vote for Hillary in the first place). Full Story
Gold ended the week up just 0.72% and still, it’s holding the major support area at the 200 day moving average. This rising channel isn’t the best of patterns, but as long as we stay above the $1,260 area we have to expect the next move to be higher. All in all, it just seems like there isn’t going to be much action until after the election and then who knows. Full Story
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