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Weekly Archive

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 4 February, 2011

In the last days we have seen the gold price hit $1,324 and yesterday spring to $1,355, leaving it in a neutral zone technically speaking. More than 10% of the gold ETF, SPDR in the States has been sold as well as around 10% of the ishares Silver Trust. Investors need to know, “is this the time they should be selling their gold and silver investments?” Full Story

By: Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD - 4 February, 2011

For most people, there are some surefire luxuries that signify wealth, a few pearls of conspicuous consumption that say you've made it. For me, it's always been a second home. My grandparents owned a vacation home in Arizona and then Florida when I was a kid, and it was an annual highlight to travel there every year. Full Story

By: Ron Hera - 4 February, 2011

The Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is pleased to present an eye opening interview with James G. Rickards, Senior Managing Director of Tangent Capital Partners, a merchant bank specializing in alternative asset management solutions, and also Chief Operating Officer of Oro Capital Advisors, LLC, a commercial real estate advisory firm and Tangent Capital affiliate. He is a counselor, economist and investment advisor with 35 years experience in global capital markets. Full Story

By: Przemyslaw Radomski - 4 February, 2011

Summing up, the sentiment for gold here is clearly bullish for the short-term and while the medium-term situation remains mixed, please note that – also based on the last two charts featured in this essay - at this point being out of the market with one’s long-term capital is not advised. Full Story

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT - 4 February, 2011

We are in a long-term bull market and we believe commodities as an asset class will heat up in the coming years. That being said, commodities are very overbought here and the risk/reward for new longs is unfavorable. Full Story

By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence - 4 February, 2011

When exhaustively researching any sector of stocks, a lot can be learned about a given industry, its constituents, and its fundamentals. And indeed at Zeal we’ve learned a lot about the silver-stock sector in our latest round of research. This research is invaluable in both identifying industry trends and selecting the companies with the highest probability for success. Full Story

By: Deepcaster - 4 February, 2011

There is an Extraordinary Investment Opportunity, still a “Sleeper” to some degree, which, some would argue, is even better than Gold and Silver. Indeed, we are among those who agree that Gold and, with the right timing, Silver, are Two of the Three Best. Full Story

By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital - 4 February, 2011

This week, the financial media celebrated as the Dow closed above the 12,000 mark for the first time since June 19th, 2008. For many, this milestone is another sign that the financial nightmare of the past three years will soon fade in the rearview mirror. Full Story

By: James West - 4 February, 2011

Gold is, as is its historical habit, starting to throw off the cumbersome shackles of futures market derived negative price influence, and reasserting its role as the only trustworthy barometer of both political stability and monetary integrity. Since both of those are now in advanced stages of disability, there is renewed impetus behind gold demand now that is probably stronger than at any point in its ten year bull market rise. Full Story

By: Jeff Berwick - 4 February, 2011

It has been a most interesting month of January. A likely presage to an interesting year to come. We have spoken often about what will be the first real domino to fall in causing a chain reaction ending up in massive global political and financial change. Often we follow our predictions with a statement something along the lines of, “but, in actuality, the defining primary event will likely come from somewhere that no one expects”. I think it’s safe to say that no one expected TEOTMSAWKI (The End Of The Monetary System As We Know It) would begin in Tunisia! Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 4 February, 2011

The Federal Reserve can keep secret most of the gold documents at issue in GATA's freedom-of-information lawsuit against it, a federal judge ruled today. But the judge, Ellen Segal Huvelle of U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, ordered the Fed to disclose to GATA a potentially crucial document by February 18. Full Story

By: David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research - 4 February, 2011

It has been years since I last watched The Matrix, a lapse I corrected last night. As the movie makers intended, the film serves as stark metaphor of the world as we know it. Or, more appropriately, as we think we know it. If asked, the average citizen of these United States would describe their life in entirely ordinary terms. They work at such-and-such a company, they live in this or that place, they enjoy one activity or another, and so on. Full Story

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis - 4 February, 2011

It isn’t a secret that the demographics of the financial markets are changing. The baby boom is retiring, shifting assets from equities and high-risk vehicles toward income generating debt instruments and safer investment alternatives. It would be reasonable to suspect that the younger generation taking its place is filling the high-risk, high-reward opportunities following the exit of the older generations, but that simply is not the case. Full Story

By: R. D. Bradshaw - 4 February, 2011

As discussed in prior Goldsmiths, the Rothschild Cabal money changers are the very people who have created oscillating, up and down, financial markets. While this can be argued as plausible in stocks, because of the great diversity in businesses and the periodic changing circumstances, it makes no sense to me at all for items that should have some stability based on fundamentals—like with currencies and most commodities (to certainly include gold and silver). Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 4 February, 2011

Since, being as melodramatic as I can be, all is lost, there is nothing that can be done, except for the government(s) to come up with plans for some new Big Screw Jobs (BSJs) with which to forestall the Big Ugly Inevitable (BUI). Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 4 February, 2011

The recent Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver may well have set a new attendance record for that venue. So many company booths filled the display area that they overflowed onto the confines of the massive Vancouver Convention Centre West. I was asked to speak in place of Kitco’s Jon Nadler, who was unavoidably absent from the conference. My topic was entitled The Precious Metal’s BIG Money Train is Leaving the Station…Are You Ready? Full Story

By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 3 February, 2011

We’re heading to a very inflationary environment. US President Obama is promising trillion dollar deficits for years to come and the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency. With all exporting countries trying to keep their currencies weaker then the US dollar - to make their exports competitive - the inflation rate is going to rise much higher. Whenever governments are creating money and spending to excess inflation rears its ugly head and investors move into hard assets. The best hard assets to buy during these periods are commodities. Full Story

By: Professor Antal E. Fekete - 3 February, 2011

“The mountains went into labor and gave birth — to a mouse! This ancient quotation could be cited to characterize the publication of the long-awaited Financial Crisis Inquiry Report on Thursday, January 27, commissioned by an earlier Congress. Another characterization is the title of an article in The New York Times from Frank Partnoy, professor of law, San Diego University: “Washington’s financial disaster” on January 29. Full Story

By: Toby Connor, GoldScents - 3 February, 2011

While virtually every other sector has gotten extremely stretched above the mean the precious metal sector, the only sector in the world that is still in a secular bull market, has quietly moved down into an intermediate degree correction. So when you hear the countless analysts spouting nonsense about the gold bubble bursting, or the fear trade coming off, or any number of ridiculous reasons they dream up for why gold has moved down, you will know the real reason for gold’s pullback is nothing more complicated than the average run of the mill profit taking event, an event that happens like clockwork about every 20-25 weeks on average. Full Story

By: Axel Merk - 3 February, 2011

With Ronald Reagan’s 100th birthday around the corner, it seems fitting that the world may need another President with the same level of foresight. This time it’s not the U.S., but China that may need a President Reagan. When Reagan became the 40th President of the United States, he gave the U.S. a vision that inspired an entire generation. Not only was he a charismatic leader, but timing was on his side, allowing him to be a catalyst for change. The economy was suffering from the effects of push-cost inflation of the 1970s; perceived political weakness inherited from the Carter era and a post-Vietnam demoralized military also held back the country. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 3 February, 2011

I am constantly amazed at the number of people who think that a budget deficit is the same thing as the total federal deficit, which it ain’t. Actually, I remember one time early in my career where I was so desperate to cover up the results of my own incompetence that I tried to exploit this confusion with a “budget deficit” scam of my own, and it seemed to work for almost a month! Full Story

By: Mike Stall - 2 February, 2011

While a majority of investors, analysts and experts dwelt on gold and (to a lesser extent silver) in 2010, sister precious metals platinum and palladium notched up significant gains matching gains in the investment safe havens. While gold and silver gained close to 30% and 80% respectively, platinum and palladium were nowhere lagging – gaining in the region of 20% and 100% in that order. We inspect long-term prospects of these lesser invested metals in this essay. A strong case for platinum and palladium makes for diversification of precious metals funds into these metals. This diversification of funds is of particular importance when Investors are being suggested to wait for medium-term corrections before stocks become ‘investable’ again. Full Story

By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals - 2 February, 2011

It's going to be a long road to the top of this gold bull. If you can avoid pitfalls like leveraged accounts and numismatics, gold will shield your wealth from the Fed's steady erosion of the dollar's purchasing power. An old proverb goes, "the greatest truths are the simplest; and so are the greatest men." Don't trust brokers who pressure you to invest in complicated schemes or fancy products when all you really need are pure bullion coins and bars, held in your physical possession. This advice has been given from father to son since Ancient Babylon, and though Americans have forgotten it for a few generations, it remains the simple truth. Full Story

By: The Gold Report and David Goguen - 2 February, 2011

PI Financial Institutional Sales VP David Goguen, in this Gold Report exclusive, sees real potential for share price appreciation in select mining companies with expandable resources. Through their quantitative research report Select Golds, Dave's team, including Associate Brodie Dunlop, are focused on Latin American explorers and producers. Full Story

By: Adrian Ash, BullionVault - 2 February, 2011

Bank depositors, in short, look set to continue paying for both the banking bail-out and the gently declining real rates of the last 3 decades which required it. Little wonder a growing number are opting out of official currency and national debt entirely, choosing industrial commodities and precious metals instead. Full Story

By: Gordon T Long - 2 February, 2011

This is a warning to prepare for potential stealth bank runs cascading from North Africa and Ireland through to EU regional banking centers. Stealth bank runs are the unrecognized and perilous serpent lurking presently below the European financial surface. They prey on slower moving archaic bond vigilantes and anyone else swimming in these dangerous uncharted waters. Investors need to fully appreciate that a modern bank run looks and operates differently than what is depicted in the movies and what we most likely expect to occur! Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 2 February, 2011

Chinese President Hu Jintao has come and gone. During that visit we saw no discussion concerning human rights, as demonstrations and riots continue in China, nor was there any discussion of trade and business practices. How can presidents not discuss economic and financial developments and policies when China is the largest world exporter? We are sure they were discussed, but behind closed doors. It was as if everything was scripted and the media colluded completely. It is important to remember China has a predatory communist government. Their economic and monetary policies are similar to the Keynesian philosophy practiced in the US, a corporatist fascist program. As a result of the use of what can be considered forced slave labor and currency manipulation they control a good part of world trade, particularly with the US. As a result China has a $2.85 trillion foreign exchange surplus and holds about $900 billion in US dollar reserves. In fact, as a result, China has some of the very same bubble problems that America has. China is booming and the rest of the world is not. Full Story

By: Bud Conrad, The Casey Report - 2 February, 2011

The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8 each week. We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows that the Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the total. Full Story

By: Clif Droke - 2 February, 2011

An oft-repeated maxim is that real estate is one of the best long-term investments. For the better part of the last 60 years or so this certainly held true. In a typical “long wave” or 60-year Kress cycle, real estate benefits almost from the start of the inflationary leg of the long wave and prices tend to increase even after the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation peaks, and real estate prices can continue to increase in the ensuing dis-inflationary years of the cycle. It’s mainly during the final “hard down” part of the cycle -- which is defined as the final 8-12% of the cycle -- that the real estate market struggles under the weight of deflation. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 2 February, 2011

The Gold Report interviewed John Williams of ShadowStats.com, who said, “I continue to track M3, the Fed’s broadest measure of the money supply until it ceased publication in March of 2006. Generally, the broader the measure of systemic liquidity, the better it serves as a predictor. In terms of giving a signal for the economy, you have to adjust the growth for inflation." Full Story

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT - 1 February, 2011

The bull market in Gold is in its 12th year (globally it began in 1999) but has yet to exhibit any “bubble-like” conditions. In fact, we still see many people referring to this bull market as “the Gold trade,” as if its an aberration that needs to be reversed or corrected. That aside, we know that Gold is under-owned as an asset class. The very well respected BCA Research estimates that globally only 1% is allocated to Gold and that fits with some of the charts that I’ve shown in the past. Full Story

By: Stewart Thomson - 1 February, 2011

All things must pass. The US dollar is a broken entity. I hear non-stop analysis of why the US dollar will collapse against gold, or at least fall hard. I agree, but no wealth for you is built by bragging how a fixed amount of gold is punishing and beating the US dollar into the ground. It’s almost the case of the bully beating on the child. The gold punisher will eventually destroy the dollar, but bragging about existing beat-downs and coming golden beat-downs on the dollar won’t make you any richer. Just a bully. The dollar is a child holding a photocopier. Gold is a man holding a machine gun. Full Story

By: Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital - 1 February, 2011

In current economic analysis, inflation is largely in the eye of the beholder, and depending on how you choose to look, very different stories emerge. In the U.S., food and beverages count for just 16.4% of the CPI calculation. The Chinese apparently believe that the basic necessities of life should count for more, assigning a 33% weight to the nutritional components. These differences in measurement are partially responsible for the divergent inflation climate in both countries, and make most people believe that inflation is fickle and localized. From my perspective, inflation is a global wave that will ultimately swamp all shores. Full Story

By: Lorimer Wilson - 1 February, 2011

Based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225 and prior mega-bears it seems evident that the S&P 500 should continue its rise to 1400 or so in the first half of 2011 before it collapses completely down to an unbelievably low of 400. Before you totally reject this possibility please read the entire article. Full Story

By: Scott Silva - 1 February, 2011

The battle to increase the US Debt limit will increase financial tensions in the US and impact markets around the world. The US debt is approaching its legal limit of $14.3 Trillion. The debt limit sets the amount that the US Treasury can borrow from its citizens other government agencies and foreign investors by selling AAA-rated US Treasury securities, also known as US sovereign debt instruments. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 1 February, 2011

GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Robert Kiyosaki & Chris Waltzek Full Story

By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 1 February, 2011

Unless you've been unconscious for the past few days you are probably aware that the situation in Egypt is becoming increasingly precarious. Increasingly precarious, that is, for Egypt's government (the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak). Inspired by the fall of Tunisia's dictatorship two weeks ago, Egyptians have taken to the streets en masse in an effort to bring Mubarak's thirty-year rule to an end. Predictably, the Egyptian government's response to the protests has been draconian. For example, police have assaulted protestors with tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets, the military has been deployed to assist the police and to help enforce a curfew, and the internet has effectively been shut down. Full Story

By: Gordon T Long - 1 February, 2011

We appear to have a 'rolling top' with broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is often seen near major tops. The Friday 01-28-11 sell-off is the initiation of a short term correction and consolidation before we put in a final new high as part of this final topping formation and long term right shoulder construction pattern. Full Story

By: The Gold Report and Paolo Lostritto - 1 February, 2011

When it comes to the 2011 gold price correction, Wellington West Senior Analyst Paolo Lostritto says he's seen worse. He counsels investors to "use this opportunity," if they haven't already, to rebuild gold positions because he foresees upside by the second half of 2011. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Paolo shares his insights. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 1 February, 2011

I note that a Bloomberg.com article reported that Jean-Claude Trichet – whom I refer to as “socialist moron Keynesian euro-trash halfwit,” but which everyone else refers to as European Central Bank President – is said to have said, while “speaking on behalf of the world’s central bankers,” that “the global economy has recovered better than expected, boosting inflation pressures in emerging markets.” Hahaha! Full Story

By: Captain Hook - 31 January, 2011

That’s what the stock market is right now more than anything else in terms of importance – it’s a culture of complacency and corruption (from last week) that is perilously addicted to the Fed’s liquidity. And I am certainly not the only one voicing concern in this regard, where you will find a recent interview with Mark Faber attached here on this subject addressing the root of this problem, which is of course the Fed’s increasing inflationary policies. Full Story

By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 31 January, 2011

Unemployment continues to plague our economy. In spite of constant claims that we have just turned the corner into recovery, the jobs report remains grim with no real signs of improvement. While Keynesian economists and big government apologists scratch their heads about persistent unemployment in spite of unprecedented government so-called “investment” in the economy, free-market economists understand the problem perfectly well. In short, they understand that we are looking to the Federal Reserve to solve an unemployment crisis that the Fed itself largely created. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 31 January, 2011

Last week was an eventful week at home and abroad with several events directly showing up in the performance of global markets and the price of gold. On Friday, Egypt’s mayhem in the streets caused uncertainty in the markets, but sent gold shooting up over $21 to close at $1,336.75. Full Story

By: James West - 31 January, 2011

It is only human to seek reasons for optimism, and to find comfort in self-delusion. “You’re going to be just fine,” is probably one of the most frequent lies told among family members when serious injury or illness occurs. We have to believe we’re going to be “just fine”, because the alternative is too painful, and painfully unacceptable. Full Story

By: Toby Connor, GoldScents - 31 January, 2011

All markets are subject to the forces of regression. Newton's basic laws of motion; Action and reaction. At current levels both the S&P and Nasdaq 100 are stretched further above the 200 day moving average that virtually any other time in the last 10 years. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 31 January, 2011

Has the Mother of All Bear Rallies breathed its last? We think so, although if this proves to be the case the climax will have occurred in an odd place, technically speaking. Although we long ago ran out of fundamental reasons to look for higher stock prices, our focus solely on technical indicators suggested that the insanity still had at least a little further to go. Specifically, we were looking for the S&P futures to rise at least 56 more points before topping out in a big way. That would equate to a rally of approximately 400 points in the Dow. Gold and silver quotes also sharply reversed direction on Friday, rising from a similarly unexpected place. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 30 January, 2011

1st Hour:
Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report.
Spotlight Stock Picks.
Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions.
2nd Hour:
Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International
Gerald Celente, Trends Research Journal Full Story

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 30 January, 2011

Alongside the falling gold price we have watched shareholders in the U.S. gold ETF, SPDR selling nearly 100 tonnes of gold over the last few weeks. The selling of gold has come from the U.S. and mainly seen at the Fixes in London at 10.30 a.m. London time or 3.00 p.m. When shareholders sell their shares the custodian HSBC is tasked with selling the fund’s gold holding against these sales. Full Story

By: Clive Maund - 30 January, 2011

A rare and exceptional opportunity has just presented itself to enter this Precious Metals bullmarket at very favorable prices for gold, silver and especially for Precious Metals stocks - right at an intermediate bottom. That is what our latest studies indicate. While gold dropped a little lower last week than expected in the last update, it has arrived in an area of strong support above its rising 200-day moving average in a deeply oversold condition, as we can see on its 8-month chart below. Thus it is interesting to observe that a bullish candlestick pattern, known as a "Piercing Pattern", appeared on its chart on Thursday and Friday, which frequently signifies a reversal. Full Story

By: Mike Hewitt - 30 January, 2011

Every increase to the existing money supply dilutes the value of the currency already in existence. In other words, those people holding paper money lose purchasing power to create value for the new money. It is, in effect, a transfer of wealth to recipients of newly created money. Quite simply, it is theft. Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 30 January, 2011

The US welfare state rumbles on and in some sectors of business it is being encouraged. We have to assume this attitude is based on more and increasing profits. Needless to say, it is cloaked in language that refers to the poor suffering people. The economy in the US and in many other countries is being run by and for major corporate interests. It is called corporatist fascism. Not many truthfully call it that, but that is what it is. We have government paid for and controlled by wealthy corporatist interest. In America you have $14 trillion in short-term debt and $105 billion in long-term commitments. Then there is the off budget items, such as wars and occupations that adds considerably to this debt, all attuned to keep the welfare state running. Both parties refuse to cut much of anything, although the Republicans say they will. We are skeptical after watching the tax bill become an $862 billion pork stimulus package. Discretionary spending is where the cuts will probably occur if there are any. Full Story

By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 30 January, 2011

This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As it turned out, to a very interesting conclusion, which is the topic of this week’s letter. By way of introduction to those not familiar with them, David M. Walker (born 1951) served as United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008, and is now the Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative. Gephardt served in Congress for 28 years, was House Majority Leader from 1989 to 1995 and Minority Leader from 1995 to 2003, running for president in 1988 and 2004. Full Story

By: David Knox Barker - 30 January, 2011

Joseph Schumpeter was a Harvard economist and president of the Econometric Society (1940-41). He was author of the two-volume tome Business Cycles (McGraw-Hill 1939). Schumpeter’s cycle research is of particular interest because he was one of the first to attempt to integrate sociological understanding into economic trends. He also presented an integrated approach to cycles that presented the Kondratieff long wave as a larger scale of the smaller cycles. In Business Cycles, he introduced a theoretical model for how all the various cycles fit together. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 30 January, 2011

Being the kind of guy who goes absolutely insane about inflation in prices, you can imagine the effect this had on me, although with a modest touch of understatement, he does not take things to the logical conclusion, namely that “We’re Freaking Doomed (WFD), you morons! And now everyone is going to see what happens after an excessive creation of money has distorted the economy, little by little over the decades, into a grotesque, corrupt, cancerous, incestuous economy feeding on government spending that, in the local, state and federal aggregate, now comprises an outrageous 50 percent of all spending in The Whole Freaking County (TWFC), and yet the Federal Reserve keeps creating more and more so that the federal government can borrow more and more and thus spend more and more!” Full Story

By: Warren Bevan - 30 January, 2011

Gold raged back on Friday and ended the week down only 0.53%. So far the correction is quite shallow and the turmoil in Egypt sparked a rally Friday which I’m not so sure is warranted at this time. The rally took Gold back above the $1,325 area which is good, but it was stopped at the downtrend line, which is bad. I think that this correction needs to be deeper and at least test the 200 day moving average at $1,280. At least that is what I hope to see. Full Story




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