In the end we may be able to repeal our self-imposed debt ceiling, but our creditors may not care. When we drop even the pretense of a theoretic limit to our profligacy, our lenders may decide its time to impose a lending ceiling of their own. That is a ceiling we have no power to raise, and it could force our leaders to finally make some very unpopular choices. Massive cuts to government spending, including to current Social Security and Medicare benefits, huge middle class tax hikes, or an actual default on the national debt. Full Story
The gold stocks are off to the races again, with big gains mounting. They just staged major breakouts, shattering a vexing consolidation that had trapped them for an entire year. Such momentum early in gold’s strong season is a very-bullish portent. As higher prices improve both technicals and sentiment, buying begets more buying. With gold-stock prices still quite low in secular terms, their upside remains huge. Full Story
I’d like to share what may be a different way of looking at the gold and silver market, but still remain focused on what has been the primary driver of price – changes in the COMEX futures market structure. It has become fairly common knowledge that prices rise when the managed money traders buy and prices fall when these traders sell. So great is the effect on price of this COMEX derivatives positioning that it is discussed in more commentaries than ever before. And that is due to what has become a clearly observable pattern of cause and price effect. Full Story
Two years ago, I found a satisfactory solution to Gibson’s paradox.i The paradox is important, because it demonstrated that between 1750-1930, interest rates in Britain correlated with the general price level, and had no correlation with the rate of price inflation. And as Friedman and Schwartz wrote, a theoretical explanation eluded even eminent economists, so economists preferred to assume the quantity theory of money was the correct guide to the relationship between interest rates and prices. Full Story
One of the hallmarks of a successful society is the widespread belief that education is a key to success. For that to be true there have to be 1) enough jobs farther up the food chain to make four more years of studying worthwhile, and 2) schools that are good and cheap enough to make the equation work. Full Story
Next week’s Bank of Canada policy conference appears set to deliver standard talking points. Not a single free market economist has been invited and a BOC spokesperson confirmed that the alternative-financial press is also being shut out. Full Story
“Frustration” no longer adequately describes what reformers in Congress – along with millions of investors and taxpayers who voted for reform – are feeling. For many, hopelessness is beginning to set in on the prospects for tax, budgetary, and monetary reform following Wednesday’s GOP capitulation on the debt ceiling. Full Story
Manufacturing output continues to improve, even though the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. continues to decline and this trend will not stop. While some Jobs have gone overseas, the new trend suggests that automation has eliminated and will continue to eliminate a plethora of jobs. As this trend is in the early phase, the momentum will continue to build in the years to come. Full Story
Dr. Stephen Leeb, best selling author and head of The Complete Investor returns to the show with encouraging comments for PMs investors. Although a reaction could unfold soon, Dr. Leeb views the gold market price activity as a potential "All-In" buy opportunity Dr. Leeb identifies a seminal opportunity to improve US diplomacy with China, to regain trust in our reserve currency with our top trading partners. The guest notes the preference for gold as a currency, not just an asset, by China's leading policymakers. Full Story
While the metals refused to offer much in the way of a pullback last week, they sure did provide us some nice sideways consolidations. In fact, they held support almost to the penny, and then continued higher on Friday (Sep 1). Full Story
In grade school, I had a classmate named Craig McVeigh who was easily one of the most maligned kids in the school because as a big lad standing a full hand width taller than anyone and weighing thirty pounds more than anyone, he was never allowed to play in any sports that involved physical contact. Craig was fair, with bright, curly red hair with freckles adorning most of his exposed skin. Most of all, this lumbering giant of a boy was decidedly unlucky. Full Story
Today’s rally was the most important in gold since it entered a bull market in December 2015. Actually, the rally has significantly raised the odds that the entire bull move since then has been impulsive rather than merely corrective of the bear market begun from above $1900 in 2011. It also put in play the 1474.4 target shown. The rally achieved two additional feats, one of them crucial to the intermediate-to-long-term picture: 1) exceeded a 1352.90 Hidden Pivot target of middling importance; and, 2) pushed above the extremely important peak recorded on election night in November. All of this adds up to a greatly improved technical picture for gold — one that we will be watching closely to get the most possible leverage from bull trades in the weeks ahead. Full Story
The best call financial writer Geoffrey Caveney ever made was in December 2015. Gold hit a multiyear low of $1,050 an ounce, and he was convinced that the metal had found a bottom. It was time to make a trade, he thought, not just in bullion but precious metal miners, specifically the juniors and some micro-cap names. Full Story
China recently announced they will trade oil for yuan “backed” by gold. The story has gotten some press (none of it mainstream mind you), and many have questions as to what it really means. While quite complicated as a whole, when you break this down into pieces I believe it is a quite simple and logical end to Bretton Woods. Full Story
It bears repeating that the above are slow moving big pictures. The short and intermediate-terms can make many moves contrary to what the monthly charts have laid out. But it is good to keep different time frames in view because perspective and frame of reference are only everything in noisy stock markets replete with chartists either wittingly or unwittingly promoting their already conceived notions. After all, there are many different technical angles through which to view any single market! Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns with bullish commentary on the precious metals sector. Once silver closes above $21 an ounce, our guest expects the world's most conductive / reflective metal to launch into the stratosphere like Bitcoin. Despite the instensive energy, computer and technical requirements of Bitcoin mining, extracting rare metals from ore is arguably more challenging. According to GATA.org, major investment banks continue to suppress the market via various, unsound paper money schemes. Full Story
Tonight I would like to show you some short and long term charts for some of the PM stock indexes. In the very short term they have had a good run and are getting overbought and need to work off some of the bullishness. This is perfectly normal and should be expected. What we need to focus in on now is where we should look for support to keep the uptrend intact. Full Story
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a surprise attack on cash in late 2016. He gave Indians a few days to convert the two largest denomination bills then circulating to bank deposits, after which point any undeposited notes would become worthless. The move was intensely controversial. Transactions completed using cash represented the vast majority of economic activity in the country. Full Story
The public awareness of the degree to which State pension funds are underfunded has risen considerably over the past year. It’s a problem that’s easy to hide as long as the economy is growing and State tax receipts grow. It’s a catastrophe when the economic conditions deteriorate and tax revenue flattens or declines, as is occurring now. Full Story
The current price behavior of gold is providing us a potential opportunity to see the rubber band theory in action. Price is stretched far above the 50 dma and due for a snap back in the direction of this average. This video discusses several strategies that are most likely to be effective in this trading environment, Full Story
A confluence of factors has been pushing the price of gold higher over the past few weeks and I believe it is headed for $1,500 by the close of 2017. After hitting a low around $1,200 in July, the price of gold has since advanced by more than 10% or $140 to $1,340. Full Story
Few Americans know that, just after World War II, the United States owned most of the gold bullion on earth – about 22,000 metric tonnes. In fact by 1945, it owned over 80% of the gold held by nation-states and central banks – an impressive display of economic power. Now it owns just over 8000 metric tonnes, which represents about 42% of the total global reserve. Full Story
It was not so long ago, when we wrote about the record-breaking volume in gold. We described the implications of the extreme monthly volume and we discussed the very high readings in case of the individual sessions. We even described these sessions as the most important sessions of the year – at that time. Well, “at that time” those volume readings were indeed extreme, but what we saw yesterday made the previous sessions seem regular. Full Story
Last week The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a peek high that was up just over 400 points off of the August 21st lows. This move represented a percentage gain of just under 2% during this 2-week period. Furthermore, this move higher off of the August 21st low retraced exactly 76.4% of the move down into those August 21st lows off of the August 8th highs. The Dow then turned down at that 76.4% retrace level almost to the tick on Friday, September 1st ending the session at 21,987. Full Story
However, since August 7, the GLD has seen seven consecutive additions to inventory. The first six, from August 14 to August 30, were for a total of 29.56 metric tonnes. This is astonishing in its own right as it's difficult to imagine this gold just laying around, waiting for HSBC to pick it up when needed. And then yesterday, we got the coup de grace...an incredible 23.65 metric tonnes were allegedly added yesterday alone. Full Story
Many pundits associate higher copper prices with inflation. While this is true to a degree, that is the wrong metric to focus on. Higher copper prices are usually associated with an improving economy. For the past few years, Copper which is a leading indicator did not trend in sync with the markets. It was marching to a different drum beat, but a new trend could be in the works. Full Story
China’s current Value Added Tax (VAT) system was established in 1994. In 2016, the Chinese government moved to make VAT the only indirect taxation system in the country by fully eliminating a legacy Business Tax (BT)[1]. In China, VAT is chargeable on the sale of goods, provision of processing and repair services, and the importation of goods. The standard VAT rate is 17%. Full Story
A faltering economy, creeping inflation and ongoing geopolitical issues are feeding a resurgence in demand for the yellow metal - and best of all it has cracked a critical six year chart resistance levels. If gold is really "the sum of all fears" then the gold price is saying that not all is rosey in the garden - best of all gold seems to have momentum behind it too. Full Story
The above raises two big questions. First, how will cryptocurrencies fare in a world of increasingly strict and complex regulations? Second, what kinds of assets stand to benefit if cryptocurrencies cease to function as “digital gold”? The first question is a tough one, because it involves the interplay of governments, revolutionary tech and free markets, which means pretty much anything is possible. The second, though, is easier: If digital gold falters, real gold wins. Full Story
Unless you’ve been away from a TV, computer or smartphone for the past week, you’ve likely seen scores of pictures and videos of the unprecedented devastation that Hurricane Harvey has brought to South Texas and Louisiana. As a Texan by way of Canada, I’d like to take a moment to reflect on the human and economic impact of this storm, one of the worst natural disasters to strike the U.S. in recorded history. Full Story
The tensions centered on the Korean peninsula should soon ease, leading to a rally in the dollar and a (mild) reaction in Precious Metals and other commodities like copper, for reasons that we will consider in this essay. There can be no denying that what we have previously referred to as “The Empire” is intent on world domination. The evidence is there for all to see in the form of a vast network of military bases spread across the globe, and a history of invasion of various countries by the Empire in recent years in pursuit of its geopolitical objectives. Full Story
Gold has staged a fabulous rally from about $1220 to $1245. Using the December futures price chart, I’ve defined the $1300 - $1350 area as a spectacular profit booking opportunity for investors. I’m an eager gold bullion seller now, but I’m less eager to sell gold stocks or silver bullion. That’s because they have not taken out their February highs while “Queen Gold” has done so easily. Gold has clearly been the leader. It’s been a great upside ride, and now it’s time for investors to book solid profits with a big smile. Full Story
The next leg up for Gold is officially here. Gold has broken out of the mother of all triangle patterns established by the long-term bull market trendline established in 2006 and its seven-year descending line from the 2010 peak. Of course, things won’t be moving in a straight line from here. But the upside target for this formation is well north of $3,000 in the next few years (again, remember this formation took over a decade to form). Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium up 5.86 percent on speculation that automobile sales will jump to replace ruined vehicles in Texas, post Hurricane Harvey. That rally could be short lived as the auto inventories are high and all the water damaged vehicles along the Gulf Coast will simply have their catalytic converters recycled here in North America. Gold traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are bullish for an 11th week straight, reports Bloomberg, as the yellow metal broke above the $1,300 an ounce. Full Story
The Fed started hacking interest rates in 2007 and QE3 ended in October 2014. This 7-year period of extraordinary ease, and the nearly 3-year upswing since, has been a difficult time for many market contrarians and so called ‘bears’. To wit, Cornerstone has been missing since 2015, Contrary Investor hasn’t released anything publicly since 2013, and Cross Currents, Beartopia, Financial Armageddon, iTulip, Nystrom, Iacono, and numerous others have gone into deep hibernation. Full Story
It is my privilege to welcome in Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael is a well-known and successful money manager, and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, and also the Money Medals Podcast, and shares his astute insights on markets and geopolitics from the perspective of an Austrian school economist viewpoint. Full Story
A report released by the Nikkei Asian Review indicates that China is prepared to release a yuan-denominated oil futures contract that is convertible (backed by) physical gold. The contract will enable China’s largest oil suppliers to settle oil sales in yuan, rather than in dollars, and then convert the yuan into gold on exchanges in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Full Story
Short term sentiment in GLD has reached excessively bullish levels. This condition normally leads to a corrective move as the market runs out of buyers. Full Story
Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates discusses his top portfolio candidates. Alternative economist, John Williams of Shadowstats.com discusses the increase in volatility in the gold market. Lloyd Huang is an electrical engineer who facilitated an $8 billion semiconductor company Semiconductor Manufacturing Int. Inc, (SMI) an NYSE IPO. Full Story
Price and volume action in gold in recent weeks has been very bullish indeed, as it moves towards completion of its giant 4-year long Head-and-Shoulders base pattern. We can see this to advantage on gold’s 10-year chart shown below. The volume pattern and volume indicators give the game away, and confirm that this is a genuine base pattern that will lead to a major new bullmarket in gold. Observe the volume build on the strong rise out of the lows of the “Head” of the pattern early last year, and how its even stronger on the rise this year out of the Right Shoulder low, and especially on the rally of recent weeks – the Accumulation - Distribution line has already reached its bullmarket highs of 2011, which is clearly a very positive sign. Full Story
Each and every one of you have a responsibility to yourself, your future, and your families’ future and should not be taking needless risks in an already difficult financial environment. If you follow some simple risk management strategies, and stay away from 3X ETF’s for investment purposes, you give yourself a much better chance of finishing this marathon by avoiding any catastrophic set-backs, from which it could take years to recover. Full Story
Here's a new report demonstrating how paying attention to the right indicators is key to future success. This is especially true in the world of investing, where the better the indicators you use, the more accurate and informed your decision-making will be -- and the better your returns will be. And, of growing concern to us, more and more of the indicators we track are signalling a topping out of the financial markets and a decline of the US economy into recession. Full Story
Texas and Houston are currently going through their crash. No, not a stock market crash but a hurricane and flooding crash. Hurricane Harvey has been called a “once in 500 years’ event.” Except in the past twelve years, we have also had Hurricane Katrina and Sandy. They were called “once in 100 years events.” The 400-year difference seems moot. It is becoming a little flippant to call them “once in a lifetime” events when three “lifetime” events have occurred in twelve short years. Yet, for all of them the experts did not see the devastation that was coming. Full Story
Ask a child what he or she wants to be when they grow up, and you’ll probably get a standard answer: firefighter, doctor, teacher – all occupations we learn to recognize at an early age. Rarely do you hear a young one say, “I want to be a writer.” I don’t recall ever saying it. Yet here I am, with writing as one of my several occupations. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 4 September, 2017
Gold cleared $1300 early in the week and padded its gains on Friday even amid a bullish weekly reversal in the US Dollar. Gold’s breakout was validated by a strong monthly close on Thursday and then a strong weekly close Friday. As predicted, the miners perked up with the breakout in Gold. GDX and GDXJ gained nearly 6% and 7% respectively for the week. Look for the miners to continue to trend higher as Gold attempts to retest its 2016 highs around $1375/oz. Full Story
In the wake of Sputnik I’s success on October 4, 1957, in which the USSR could stake claim to having built the first artificial earth satellite, a cosmic shift in perception took hold. Whatever advantages US society might have as measured by individual freedom, it came up short when stacked against Soviet science and technology. Full Story
This is what JNUG is going to look like during the rest of the bull market. There are going to be huge drawdowns along the way (as we’ve already seen) but by the time the bubble forms and tops JNUG will have easily reached $500 to $1000. The question is can any of you realistically survive this kind of massive volatility along the way to reach the end? Full Story
Yes, it is September. Summer vacations are over. And the kids go back to school. September in many respects almost feels like the real “New Year” as it marks a beginning. After the Labour Day, weekend portfolio managers start to clean house. Maybe that’s why September ranks as the worst month of the year for stocks. Since 1950, September has been a losing month for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) 40 times with only 26 winning months. Full Story
This fork came about from a disagreement among the bitcoin miners, those who control the blockchain and hence the currency. The equivalent of the disgruntled Acme Bank group left to form bitcoin cash, the equivalent of Wile E. Bank. However, it has often been said that necessity is the mother of invention. Applied to bitcoin, that means that what happened due to irreconcilable differences in this case, could also occur deliberately later. Full Story
This week was the first week of the rest of you life, as well as the mark of the resumption of the secular bull market in gold. Things are really shaping up nicely in the precious metals arena. Gold broke a major trend-line and closed the month with a breakout on expanding volume on the all important monthly chart. Nothing is ever for sure in trading but this is very solid action. Full Story
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