The current stock bull market, already the longest in U.S. history, turns 10 years old this month. It’s been a phenomenally profitable time to participate, especially if you’ve stuck to an investment strategy that favors dividend-paying stocks.
As you can see in the chart below, the amount of cash that S&P 500 Index companies have returned to shareholders has grown each year since 2009. In the final three months of 2018 alone, S&P companies paid out $119.8 billion, a quarterly record. Total dividends for the full year stood at $456.3 billion, up 9 percent from the previous year—another new record. Full Story
Market manipulation by governments and central banks is right out in the open again, hiding in plain sight in the confidence that mainstream financial news organizations, financial letter writers, and gurus who purport to bring "technical analysis" to bear on markets will avert their gaze.
For as GATA's friend Jim Anderson of SD Bullion Inc. in Michigan pointed out this week, CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, has just renewed its "Central Bank Incentive Program," in which governments and central banks receive discounts for surreptitiously trading all major futures contracts on CME Group exchanges -- not just financial futures but also monetary metals futures and even agricultural futures. Full Story
Even if you think the chances are small that you’d ever need to use precious metals for barter, there’s no harm in acquiring the ability to do so.
You’ll have some hard assets to your name that will offer long-term inflation protection and can be sold into a highly liquid market for cash whenever you want to ring the register.
In the meantime, being prepared will give you peace of mind. You’ll feel more confident and rest easier knowing that you have a Plan B in place and some proper tools to put it into action in the event of a SHTF scenario. Full Story
The stock market is beginning to rollover again, as the gravity of economic fundamentals begins to exert its “pull.” I’m sure it won’t take long before we start to hear complaints about the hedge fund computer algos again. But the best advice is to take your money off the table and get out of the way. Full Story
The recent monthly statements of account published by the Bank for International Settlements indicate that the bank is still actively trading gold swaps, which the bank uses to gain access to gold held by commercial banks.
There is not enough information in the monthly reports to calculate the exact amount of swaps, but based on the information in the BIS' just-published statement of account for February 2019.. Full Story
The budget deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year, widened to $310 billion, a whopping 77% higher than the $175.7 billion reported for the same period last year, largely the result of the revenue hit from Trump’s tax cuts and the increase in government spending…. The jump in the deficit was despite the bump in customs duties, which almost doubled to about $24.5 billion this fiscal year from $12.6 billion a year ago, reflecting the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Full Story
The next stock market crash could initially bring down all markets, including commodities. But any threat of deflation will trigger a massive inflationary response from the Federal Reserve.
Inflationary assets such as precious metals stand to benefit. Gold in particular will also tend attract safe-haven demand and hold up better than risk assets when the “everything bubble” bursts. Full Story
How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don't mind at all. Full Story
Turkey continues to sell its gold reserves. Central bank data from Ankara shows that reserves fell 4.5 tons month-over-month in January to 440.8 tons. At least eight tons of gold were removed from Venezuela’s central bank last week, according to unidentified government sources who did not say where the gold was going to. In 2018, 23 tons of Venezuelan gold was transported to Istanbul, and some speculate that is the same place this going is going to as well. Full Story
This is the gold sector. This is not the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But enough with the cries of foul. It’s a relatively (to the broad stock and bond markets) tiny market that moves sharply when it moves. It pumped with a backdrop of some sort of macro noise or other and it has now fallen back against some other macro noise.
I’ll continue to suggest that if you are reading something that blames the Plunge Protection Team, the Fed or JP Morgan for this pullback you should run don’t walk in the other direction from that narrative and not look back. That is because it is the other side of the same face that is going to tell you that gold is going to $3000 (or 4, 5, 6… hell 10K!) every time it makes a dynamic short-term rally.
Now, despite the lower low below the former bull flag’s low point GDX remains in an uptrend... Full Story
- The host proposes a chief factor sending Palladium higher while gold and platinum remain relatively subdued. - Unlike the former high fliers, palladium was not hoarded as a store of value, but instead consumed like silver by industries. - The silver market could undergo an epic run to the three digit level in surprisingly fast order. - For the first time in perhaps decades, central banks are now accumulating silver. Full Story
But the GDP gain is coming at a cost of sharply increased debt. Consider that since Trump took office GDP has grown by roughly $3.1 trillion. But U.S. national debt is up $2.1 trillion. When Trump took office, the U.S. national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. Now it is almost $22.1 trillion. When one considers all debt securities in the U.S. that includes government, corporations, and the consumer, debt has grown by $6.2 trillion since Trump took office. We have consistently said that one cannot grow GDP by debt alone. At some point debt hits its limits. Make America Great Again? How about Make America debt bigger again! Full Story
We have said many times that the Fed cares not about the price of gold. Its officials would have no reason to incur career risk (or prison time) to manipulate the price, even if they had the means. But here is one area where they care about, not price of gold per se, but attractiveness of investment.
If investors expect flat to negative returns, then they must turn to gold as the only alternative. If you cannot get return on capital, then you at least want return of capital. This is not what the Fed wants, what Wall Street wants, what Warren Buffet wants, or what most investors want. It’s a scenario where few firms make money, many lose money, and increasing numbers at the margin go under. And few investors stay even.
It will be a scenario like 2008, when it comes. Full Story
Never underestimate the currency butterfly effect. This has huge implications for the yuan, which is the currency of China. The Social Credit Score will have incredible implications on business, government and ultimately, the strength of the currency.
The world has never seen anything like this. And it’s only going to grow. China is the first country to implement this and certainly won’t be the last. You know others will do so to maintain power, increase power and manipulate power.
Pay attention to this and it will be very important in the coming years, and will have significant indirect effects to your portfolio. Full Story
If you’re puzzled by the magnitude of the stock market correction since late December, you can thank the central banks for the rally. Yes, that’s correct… after the Dow Jones suffered the worst Christmas Eve trading day ever, the massive central bank monetary liquidity helped push the index up 20% from its low over the next two months. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline - 4 March, 2019
- Infested with Crawdads - Not Applauding - Steadily More Dovish - #3 Mandate - Puerto Rico, Cleveland, New York, Cleveland, Austin, and Dallas Full Story
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