By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 8 March, 2013
The Dow has gone up roughly, and only, 3400 points since January 2000. Gold, during the same period, has gone from an average of $284 to $1570.90 ($1570.90/$284 = 5.5x) while silver has gone from an average of $4.95 to $28.62 ($28.62/$4.95 = 5.7x) per oz. In January 2000 the gold/silver ratio was $284.32/$4.95 = 57.43. Today, as I calculate these numbers, gold is $1570.90 oz while silver is $28.62 oz for a gold/silver ratio of 54.88. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 8 March, 2013
Gold’s technical breakdown suffered in its recent capitulation selloff naturally unleashed a flood of bearish sentiment. Traders are totally convinced gold’s woes are just starting, that the worst is yet to come. This pessimistic worldview is largely universal, even among futures traders. But their collective bets are actually a strong contrarian indicator. Their bearishness peaks right before major rallies erupt. Full Story
There is a kind of madness in the air, and not the harmless sort that inhabits the annual college basketball fest. Europe is closer to dissolution than tighter union. The United States has consigned itself to a self-imposed paralysis that originates in the nation's politics and terminates in its economics. In Asia, nation states have declared war -- over currency values -- an economic war that threatens to become a hot war and drag the United States into it. Full Story
Given Stan Druckenmiller’s Stellar Investment and Trading Record – 30% return over 30 years – including a most profitable stint as George Soros’ Portfolio Manager at the Quantum Fund, it is no surprise that his two Forecast Alternatives have it Nailed. But both Outcomes are Possible Simultaneously, and both are highly likely! Full Story
Investors’ sentiment in the whole precious metals sector is so low that it seems it almost cannot move any further below its current level and it has profound implications for the market: levels so low signal the formation of a bottom and a likely trend reversal. Full Story
In reflecting on this two-year smash of precious metals, and in particular, mining shares, let's take a look at some currency history of the last decade to provide us with some much needed mental capital. With the help of Nick Laird over at Sharelynx.com, I was able to track down a few charts documenting the staggering percentage growth increases of gold and silver when compared to the world's major currencies. Full Story
It would be completely remiss to go a week without mentioning that we have indeed discovered time travel here in America. Yes, it is 2007 all over again. That nasty crisis, Fannie, Lehman, AIG, and Merrill never happened. It is all better now. The ‘Great Recession’ is long in the rear view mirror and we can party just like it is…1999? Or maybe 1929? There has to be something going on with all those 9s. Full Story
The worldwide tug of war between the world’s major central banks has created a de facto currency war involving the competitive devaluations of major fiat currencies. Full Story
We have been reviewing different versions of this chart in NFTRH over the last several weeks as the S&P 500 approaches a long-standing target of 1550+. Today it looks like that target will be hit and exceeded with ease, but last summer and right through the Fiscal Cliff nonsense in December, very few were willing to entertain such crazy talk. Full Story
We all know that sentiment on Gold is quite bearish. Rather than post numerous charts which you’ve likely already seen, I want to note some of the recent statistics. By recent, I refer to the past two weeks. Market Vane’s bullish consensus for Gold hit its lowest since 2001. SentimenTrader.com’s public opinion, which combines various surveys, touched its lowest level since 2004. Full Story
Here’s a Wall Street Journal headline to brighten your day: Freshly Flush, the Consumer Is Back. A little premature, wouldn’t you say? Are you feeling flush? That’s what we thought. Of course, this kind of hubris is always going to go down a lot easier with the Dow Industrial Average trading at all-time highs, as it currently is. But isn’t this the way major tops are supposed to feel – i.e., with a bullish drumbeat from the news media so shrill and persistent that we skeptics are about to bleed from the ears? Full Story
Even though the newsletter I write for Casey Research is focused primarily on gold, our metals investments cover all the precious metals, and when warranted, some base-metals plays too. And with the markets in the state they are, I want to say something about silver. Full Story
The Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) has crossed into record (nominal) territory when it closed over the October 9, 2007 high. Halleluiah! It only took five years and four months plus 24 days for the market to break even. Not bad for an economy that is barely growing (supposedly forecasted at 2.2% GDP growth in 2012 but Q4 was an anaemic 0.1% giving rise to potential 2012 growth being only 1.5%). Full Story
The Dow reached an all-time high of 14,253 on Tuesday and naturally, the financial press drew lots of attention to this fact. Conspicuously absent from the media attention, however, was a complete lack of enthusiasm. The perma-bull cheering section was eerily quiet as widespread apathy was evident. This continues a trend of muted investor psychology which, from a contrarian standpoint, is refreshing given how far the market has come since November. Full Story
Bankers have flipped the paradigm of monetary truth upside down today. People believe in fiat digital money that is, by definition of the term, counterfeit and have zero belief in money that is real, and thus lasted over 5000 years of global history. In fact so few people today have an understanding of monetary history and truth that when I tell them that all money in wide use and circulation today is the equivalent of counterfeit money, even though this is true, they look at me like my beliefs, not their beliefs, are crazy. Hopefully this article will finally open some eyes and answer the question, “What is money and what is not?” Full Story
The Fed is creating $Trillions of “new money” while, according to the World Gold Council, central bank bullion buying is at a 48 year high. The Fed is printing money and driving up consumer prices for Americans, while China, Russia, and many countries are buying gold. It would appear those other countries trust and value gold more than they trust the dollar – especially when it is being spent, borrowed, and printed in excessive quantities. Full Story
One way to rise above the day-to-day noise in markets and get the longer view right is to adopt an investment sage, somebody older, wiser and considerably richer due to their past good judgement. Many in the gold market turn to Jim Sinclair, adviser to the Hunt Brothers in the 70s and a veteran market trader of considerable net worth. Full Story
The propaganda has turned openly laughable. On the popular major financial news networks, the recent decline in the so-called Gold price has prompted quite the parade of clowns on the ship of fools to trumpet nonsense. The widely published and posted Gold price is dominated by futures contracts, and thus as corrupted as meaningless. The entire global financial structure is crumbling before our eyes. The gang of central bankers has applied their monetary policy for four and a half years since the implosion of Lehman, Fannie Mae, and AIG. The first is dead, while the second has transformed into a sanctioned subprime lender again, and the latter is a sinkhole. Full Story
The current gold bull market that has been going on for well over 10 years has never entered a mania bubble phase, especially when you compare it to pervious bubbles of the past. If we compare today’s gold price rise to that of the 1970s gold bull market, or the 1990s tech bubble and the 2000s oil run, we can clearly see that this gold bull market has underperformed on a percentage basis. The three other bubbles took about nine years to go from the start of the bubble before it hit the mania exponential rise in the last 2 years. It seems like starting in year 7 after a small correction, the bubble making process starts to go exponential and can clearly gain several hundred percent in the final phase. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Leonard Melman - 6 March, 2013
As looming inflation, currency wars and a possible run on gold threaten to derail markets, Leonard Melman, author of The Melman Report, is setting his sights on the midtier and near-term producers that he wants to scoop up when the blood is in the streets. In this interview with The Gold Report, Melman explains why gold and silver could do very well in the second half of 2013. Full Story
FORGET about the Apple effect. Not including AAPL in its 30 constituents is just one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's many quirks. So too is its ever-changing Dow divisor, a number seemingly picked at random to smooth out the math in the DJIA. But neither of these oddities changes the fact that this oddest of equity averages is hitting new all-time highs right now. Full Story
57% of the world’s public mining companies are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (364 companies) and TSX Venture Exchange (1309 companies), and 70% of the equity capital raised globally for mining companies was raised on these two exchanges. The junior mining and exploration industry dominates the TSX Venture exchange making up 58% of the whole exchange (1309 of 2254 companies listed), and most investors look at the TSX Venture Exchange as a proxy for junior mining. Full Story
In the investing world, you can take a 3 month view, a 3 year view or a 30 year view. One person looking at one asset class might have a different forecast depending on the time horizon he is considering. In this article, I will look at gold through a 30 year lens. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 6 March, 2013
The three major blocs of the developed world are careening toward a debt-fueled denouement that will play out over years rather than in a single moment. And contrary to some opinion, there is no certain ending. There are multiple paths still available to Europe and especially the US, though admittedly none of them are bright and carefree. There are very few paths available to Japan, as they have skipped too far down the yellow brick road of debt. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 6 March, 2013
In his Congressional testimony last week in Washington, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke took time to downplay the significance of the few dissenting voices on the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC). Those statements, combined with an even more dovish statement by Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen earlier this week, clearly reaffirm the Fed's indefinite commitment to $85 billion of monthly quantitative easing. Full Story
While I suspect this is probably the furthest thing from what most investors expect, I think the dollar index is very close to forming another major top, and once it does it should release oil, gold and the rest of the commodity index from their extended corrections. Granted no one believed me when I called the major three year cycle low in the CRB last summer either. Full Story
How many times have we heard that the precious metals stocks are so oversold and cheap that they can’t go any lower and have to rally. They just can’t go any lower because the low in 2008 was the absolute low that will never be hit again as it was just an extraordinary event. A precious metal stock crash that was a once in a lifetime thing. So based on that low many PM investors bought their precious metals stocks thinking they were buying on the cheap. I’m wondering if they still think the precious metals stocks were a good buy at that 2008 crash low in the ratio charts? Full Story
ArabianMoney editor and publisher Peter Cooper interviews the legendary gold fund manager John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund who was in Dubai yesterday to meet clients of Falcon Private Bank whose gold fund he also runs. Full Story
Featured is the weekly gold chart, with the US dollar at the top. Five times during the past five years did gold and the US dollar rise in tandem. The sixth time could happen any day. In 1973 and in 2005, gold and the mining stocks rose along with the U.S. dollar from April to December. Full Story
Every baseball player knows the saying, “3 strikes and you’re out!” Well, the dollar bugs may be about to strike out, against silver bullion. You are looking at the daily silver chart. It’s almost eerie how similar each of the three highlighted trough areas are to each other. In the first two examples, silver made a “capitulation low”, and that was followed by a final lower low, which looks like a spike. Full Story
As with the movie Groundhog Day, for the stock market it’s been the same routine day after day all year now (not witnessed since 1967), where good is good news, but bad news is even better. So as with Bill Murray held captive in Punxsutawney to the point of insanity, for speculators this is an equally frustrating situation because on the surface, meaning the economy, technicals, and common sense, all suggest stocks should be falling, and yet, seemingly, every morning, futures are higher in the good ole US of A – land of the free – home of the brave – and now a slave state to the oligarchs much like the bourgeois ruled France some 200 years ago. Full Story
There are a lot of words in the dictionary to describe what you need these days to be a gold investor: patience, endurance and fortitude are some of them. Recently investors were beginning to lose their staying power. But, in the past, it has often worked out that just as investors’ patience runs out, gold comes charging in. Full Story
In one our recent issues subscriber Jory G. sent us the following question: “I have a 401(k) with my present employer that has a number of investment options, virtually all of which are mutual funds. Is it possible for Mr. Miller to address in a future letter what we might do to maximize growth or minimize loss in such programs? I realize there are many different 401(k) programs out there, but I just feel overwhelmed when trying to decide which of the funds provide the best growth/protection.” Full Story
When we asked last November whether the yen is doomed, it was before current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was elected. We have since answered the question in the affirmative. But to understand why we believe the yen might be worthless one day, we look at Japan’s challenges from different angles. Today, we focus on Japan’s stated goal to pursue Depression-Era policies. Full Story
With all the discussion on the Internet, some of it confusing, we thought a picture would be worth a thousand words. Backwardation is when there is a profit to decarry the metal. This is the simultaneous sale of metal in the spot market and purchase of metal in the futures market. Selling is on the bid and buying is at the ask. So the spread one could earn is the decarry: Spot(bid) – Future(ask). Full Story
WALL STREET and the City are coming to decide that gold is a sell. Because interest rates, they reason, are set to rise sooner than they used to imagine. This professional money is only half-wrong. Central banks aren't about to hike the returns on cash savings, which have been a wasting asset pretty much non-stop since 2007. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Eric Sprott - 4 March, 2013
Some people may look at the stock market and see economic recovery. Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management and Sprott Money looks at myriad other economic indicators and sees an economy still in decline. Despite his suspicions that central banks are keeping gold prices artificially low, he tells The Gold Report that he favors gold, platinum, palladium and especially silver, over the near and long term. Full Story
There was a major battle that took place in the United States in November of 2012, but it wasn't fought between the Republicans and the Democrats. The result was an overwhelming victory – because only one side showed up for the fight. For the most part, the other side didn't even realize that a battle was being fought. Full Story
The London Bullion Market is the global trading centre for physical gold, and the Bank of England holds gold on behalf of other central banks. There are a number of historical reasons the Bank has this privileged role, but the most important are that the Bank is trusted, and it oversees the largest bullion market by far. Therefore a significant portion of the world’s monetary gold should be stored at the Bank of England. Full Story
Nobody ever said riding a (gold) bull market was easy. Unless you’re prepared to buy, close your eyes, and come back years later, then I’m afraid we have to take the good with the bad. There isn’t too much more to add this week, we’re obviously in a new Daily Cycle that we expect is also the 1st Daily Cycle of a new Investor Cycle. Under such an assumption, this 3 day decline is simply just this bull market "making it very difficult". Full Story
A recent news story confirms that paper-shuffling is still by far the highest-paying job in America. A Jumbo Payday for Deal Titans was last week’s big story from the smoke-and-mirrors aerie of high-finance. Nine men — there were no women in the group — at private equity firms including Apollo Global Management, Blackstone Group, KKR and Carlyle Group will bank more than $1 billion in dividends and compensation for deals they put together in 2012. Full Story
Show Highlights: Guest Interviews. Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Host answers phone calls and email questions. Guests: Louis Navellier, The Little Book That Makes You Rich Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute Full Story
COTs, sentiment and public opinion and a raft of technical indicators are all at low extremes that continue to indicate that gold is marking out a major low here and set to reverse to the upside before long. So you can safely ignore all the fair weather pundits who are coming out of the woodwork to proclaim gold’s bullmarket dead, and also the plethora of bearish articles appearing in the mainstream media at Big Money’s behest in order to squeeze the last drop of blood out of the little guy before the next big rally starts. Full Story
As in the game of chess, which taught warriors of yesteryear about strategy and how the elements of cunning and positioning delivered 'check mate', this game is about understanding the strategy being slyly carried out. Currency Wars may be an old game, but it is a very different battlefield today, utilizing quite a deceptive strategy in this modern era of FIAT Currencies. Full Story
Far too many people believe that gold serves no useful purpose. I am therefore publishing this response to The 10 Minute Gold Standard: It’s Much Easier than You Think by Nathan Lewis. Mr. Lewis, a professed advocate of the gold standard, argues that even if we have a “gold standard”, we don’t need actual gold. Indeed, according to David Ricardo (quoted in the article), gold’s only job is to regulate the quantity of paper. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 3 March, 2013
GATA long has maintained that JPMorganChase & Co. is not just a primary dealer in U.S. government securities but effectively the agent of the U.S. government in all strategic markets. Today Zero Hedge's pseudonymous Tyler Durdan reports that the company's undergound vault in New York, said to be the largest bank vault in the world, is adjacent and likely connected to the famous gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Full Story
Gold and silver are selling at bargain basement prices this month but watch out this offer will not last for very long. The yellow metal is close to the bottom of its trading range and overdue for a breakout to the upside and silver will follow with a vengeance. Full Story
Last week I mentioned I was heavily short the markets and many leading stocks. It worked out well but not as well as I’d hoped. Once the action begins to change profits have to be locked in and that’s what we did. Full Story
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