What is happening is simple. Bitcoin is stealing the show. Bitcoin is decimating the demand for precious metals and will continue to do so until it experiences a massive correction, or becomes out of vogue. The miraculous rise in the price of Bitcoin has contrarian investors backing up in horror while the cryptocurrency enthusiasts continue to HODL at all cost , foregoing the huge gains they have already experienced in the hope that they will continue to see parabolic gains. Full Story
There is a general belief, and that is all it is, that state finances fare better in an inflationary environment than a deflationary one. This perception arises from the transfer of wealth from lenders to the state through a devaluation of the currency, which occurs with monetary inflation, compared with the transfer of wealth from the state to its creditors through deflation. The effect is undoubtedly true, even though it is played down by governments, but it ignores what happens to continuing government obligations and finances. Full Story
Since the US lifted anchor on the Gold Standard in August 1971 making the US Dollar a Fiat Reserve Currency, the US economy has been propelled forward, no-longer tethered to the principles of Sound Money. Unfortunately, the reality is that this sort of political expediency is the equivalent of building a house on a foundation of sand versus solid bedrock, dooming it to be unable to withstand the economic storms and turmoil that inevitably lie ahead. Full Story
Bitcoin’s meteoric skyrocketing this year has been astonishing, captivating traders across the globe. This once-obscure cryptocurrency has exploded into the world’s hottest market. With fortunes being won on paper, everyone is talking about bitcoin. But with its price shooting parabolic, unfortunately this wild ride has all the hallmarks of a classic popular speculative mania. And those all end badly, totally collapsing. Full Story
Silver and mining stocks declined for yet another day, but this time gold ended the session with a (slight, but still) gain. How can we interpret the latter? Is it a sign of strength? In short, not at all. In yesterday’s alert we emphasized that gold’s breakdown was one of the key developments that one should consider while analyzing the precious metals market. The tiny upswing that we saw in gold yesterday was a classic example of a post-breakout pause. Full Story
With the holidays just around the corner, Dan Norcini, a.k.a., Trader Dan returns with his outlook on the commodities sector. He follows the money flows to decipher investor sentiment, such as the Carry-trade that involves the USD/Yen. When the index is weak, sentiment is viewed as risk-on, favoring gold and silver; when the USD/Yen index is strong, the risk-off trade favors US equities. The accompanying chart indicates that investors turned to gold in 2016 while avoiding US shares, as the USD/JPY ratio declined. Full Story
10yr yield still in a posture to rise to the 2.9% target. A less ‘in the bag’ Amigo than his fellow above, but still intact. Interpretation: The inflation has been in stocks on this macro cycle. When the limiter is reached, either the inflation will morph into something more traditional and virulent (with commodities and precious metals taking over) or it will be cut off at the knees as deflation finally takes back all the debt used to inflate assets on this cycle. Full Story
There’s nothing like a bargain during the holidays. And here’s an unexpected one even I was surprised to see… It’s not easy to dig up industry-wide data on coin and bar premiums. To do it manually is incredibly time-consuming and then would be out of date as soon as you published it, since premiums always fluctuate. But we’ve snagged both wholesale and retail data from a couple sources. And there’s a very clear message from these statistics: gold bullion is on the SALE rack… Full Story
After supposedly chomping on the bit for years to pass meaningful tax reform, Republicans are now set to blow an historic opportunity. Whatever version of the Bill that emerges from the House and Senate Conference Committee (which will be signed by President Trump faster than he can down a Filet o'Fish), will be far less than the Republicans envisioned when they finally captured the White House and both Congressional Chambers in 2016. Full Story
The “sentiment” in the metals complex now ranges from indifferent to very bearish. In fact, I am seeing many just posting how they are just fed up with the metals complex, and just want to move on. And, that is often the time when fireworks are seen. So, I think it is prudent that we remain on our toes right now, just as many seem to giving up. Full Story
We’ve been persistently bearish on precious metals since September and that has annoyed our readers. The weak price action, negative divergences and bearish fundamentals are too much to currently overcome for the time being. The gold stocks finally cracked this week and have lost another 7%-8% in only the past seven trading sessions. Silver and Gold denominated in foreign currencies have joined the breakdown. Gold meanwhile has not broken down yet but all indications are that it will soon. Full Story
The bottle-rocket trajectory of bitcoin’s rally has required me to put out increasingly ambitious Hidden Pivot targets several times each day. Currently I am using 18436 to project a top of some sort, although I hesitate to suggest it will be THE top. Actually, I’d be happy merely to see BTC pull back from that number for more than a few hours — as long as it has taken for this vehicle to obliterate Hidden Pivot resistances that we might have expected to contain the jubilation for a few days if not longer. Full Story
Gold has a past. I suspect it has a future. We live in a time when currencies and financial markets have become political enterprises – creations of the world’s governments and central banks. Since we have never seen times like these, when so much depends on the monetary largesse of the policy-makers, no one really knows where the future might lead us. Uncertainty reigns and, when that is the case, history teaches us that gold demand rises proportionally and at times impressively so. Full Story
As the holiday season approaches, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) returns with glad tidings for PMs investors. Our guest is particularly keen on the prospects of the silver market. Regarding Bitcoin (BTC), Peter Schiff notes, "... it (Bitcoin) could grow to be the biggest bubble in the history of the world..." Bitcoin and cryptos represent, "... an indictment of the Euro and the Dollar... BTC could run to $20,000 on FOMO or fear of missing out." Full Story
I am not trying to be a wise guy with the first half of the title (it’s a goof on alarmist media), but if you were not bear biased or outright bearish on the gold sector’s daily and weekly technicals, and its macro and sector fundamentals by now all you have left are the alarmist headlines now telling us about H/S breakdowns, HUI/Gold ratio bearishness and whatever else is going on out there in media large and small to scare the lowly gold bug. Full Story
And they're going to choose to let stocks go. The #1 driver of the stock market is Central Bank money printing. In 2017 alone, the BoJ and the European Central Bank (ECB) have printed over $1.5 TRILLION and funneled it into the financial system. The primary goal of this is to ramp stocks higher. But the consequence is that inflation has been unleashed. Full Story
Central bankers keep lamenting the fact that record low interest rates and record high currency creation haven’t generated enough inflation (because remember, for these guys inflation is a good thing rather than a dangerous disease). To which the sound money community keeps responding, “You’re looking in the wrong place! Include the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate in your models and you’ll see that inflation is high and rising.” Full Story
For better or worse, bitcoin has everyone’s attention. Anyone even remotely aware of the cryptocurrency’s increasingly wild price swings would recognize a full-blown mania, just as those on the periphery of the Dutch tulip bulb craze of 1636-37 must have known that it would end badly. For now, however, bitcoin has been a big winner for virtually everyone who bought before Monday and held onto it. But it is attracting a growing number of speculators who think they can do even better by trading the swings. Full Story
Since last Monday, when the USDJPY was forcibly rallied from below 111, the total change in this all-important HFT driver is 130 "pips"...from 110.90 to 112.20. After discovering and then closely following the yen-gold correlation for over three years, we've learned that a one point move in the USDJPY generally correlates to a $10-12 move in the price of Comex Digital Gold. The current 130 pip move should thus translate into roughly a $15 drop in Comex gold. Considering that price was $1298 last Monday, the current price should be around $1283. Instead, I have a last of $1267. Why the 2X difference? Full Story
Without a doubt, equities have had an extra-ordinary run. There is the view that, without a recession, you cannot have a bear market. In our analysis, that’s true for the most part – but is “for the most part” good enough? The notable exception is the Crash of 1987 where a bear market was not accompanied by a recession. In today’s context, the buy-the-dip crowd will remind you that the ’87 crash was, well, a buying opportunity. Full Story
I’m going to use the GDX and GDXJ as a proxy for the rest of the PM stock indexes which are very similar to these two. Last Wednesday we looked at the short term daily charts to the longer term weekly charts to see how things were setting in the PM complex. Full Story
When you read the title of this article, I am sure you assumed this article would be all about the latest event of fake news which supposedly rocked the market this past Friday. Well, I am sorry to disappoint you. You see, many investors have been following fake news for much longer than you realize. Well, more accurately, the news has been real, but the expectations held by analysts and investors has been fake. Full Story
It has been a long tough slog in the gold market since the top in 2011. Here we are, more than 6 years later, still waiting for the return of a genuine bull market pattern. There is finally some good news on this: 2018 should be a very good year for gold. We have passed through the doldrums, and there is some excitement just ahead. In order to better understand why I'm confident that gold is ready to move, I'm going to share with you something I have not discussed openly until now. Full Story
In a blog post earlier this week I briefly argued that “government-controlled cryptocurrency” was a contradiction in terms. It depends on what is meant by “cryptocurrency”, but now that I’ve done some more research on the subject I understand how a central bank could make use of blockchain technology and why the government would want to implement a type of cryptocurrency. Full Story
People often like to describe bitcoin as digital gold, but that analogy isn't a very good one. Bitcoin is categorically different from the yellow metal. If we had to choose a metal as an analogy for bitcoin, that metal would be boring grey in colour (and thus lacking ornamental purpose), useless for industrial purposes, but scarce. As far as I know no such material exists, so let's come up with a name for this imaginary metal: uselesstainium. Bitcoin is digital uselesstainium. Full Story
For at least the past decade the behavior of the people who trade gold futures contracts – and thereby determine the metal’s price – has been generally predictable: The “commercials” – big banks and companies that buy gold to do things with it – have suckered the speculators – mostly hedge funds who chase trends – into going very long and very short at exactly the wrong time. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on major buy signal. The cycle is down, as the multimonth consolidation continues. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
We know our readers invest in precious metals in various ways. One way is through ETFs. If you are one of these investors, pay taxes to the U.S., and are holding onto any positions with a loss since the time you bought, here’s a heads-up: if you act by December 31, you can capture that loss on your taxes without losing your exposure to metals. Full Story
Mike Maloney explores the events and evidence leading up to what he believes will be the most dangerous event the world will see in the coming years -- the potential for governments to enforce their own centralized digital currencies. Full Story
There is a Disinformation War taking place in the silver market as certain industry analysis is confusing individuals by purposely disregarding the tremendous impact of rising investment demand. Not only do I find this troubling, but I am also quite surprised how much the silver industry pays attention to this faulty analysis. So, it’s time once again to set the record straight. Full Story
GDX and associated gold stocks are quite firm given that strong Chinese New Year buying has yet to commence. That buying should start soon after the Fed’s next rate hike. In this hiking cycle, gold has staged fabulous rallies after almost all the hikes. Will the next rally be the biggest of them all? Perhaps, but if it happens, only investors with substantial “skin in the gold stocks game” will get to smile! Full Story
November turned out to be an up-month in gold and the analogy to what happened in late 2012 is no longer crystal clear. Moreover, gold’s monthly upswing was accompanied by extreme, record-breaking volume. What can we infer from the latter? Will we see a breakout shortly? In our opinion, that’s highly unlikely. Let’s move right into gold’s long-term chart – it will be easier to discuss the above issues with the price moves in front of us. Full Story
Fear and greed drive the precious metals markets, but there hasn’t been much of either pushing gold and silver prices lately. Investors have grown tired of worrying about geopolitical events, ever increasing federal debt ceilings and ever inflating equity bubbles. Full Story
Many of you who follow my analysis have learned quite well how I look at the market. And, those of you who have read me in the past know that I do not view fundamentals as being relevant to determining when we can see a major turn in the metals market. In fact, in 2011, the fundamentals for the metals market were exceptionally strong, with most everyone believing in the certainty of gold exceeding the $2,000 mark, just before we began a multi-year pullback. Full Story
There is a Disinformation War taking place in the silver market as certain industry analysis is confusing individuals by purposely disregarding the tremendous impact of rising investment demand. Not only do I find this troubling, but I am also quite surprised how much the silver industry pays attention to this faulty analysis. So, it’s time once again to set the record straight. Full Story
BullionStar's monthly 'Gold Market Charts' articles examine recent developments in the world's largest physical gold markets using graphical gold charts created by the GOLD CHARTS R US market chart website. The physical gold markets covered include India, China, Russia and Switzerland and where relevant, the COMEX gold futures vault inventories. Note additionally that BullionStar's website also hosts gold and silver price charts under the BullionStar Charts menu, which also allows you to chart currencies, commodities, stock indices and Bitcoin in terms of gold and other precious metals. Full Story
One of the most compelling and engaging presenters at the Precious Metals Summit in London last month was Ronald-Peter Stöferle, a managing partner at Liechtenstein-based asset management company Incrementum. Incrementum, as you may know, is responsible for publishing the annually-updated, widely-read “In Gold We Trust” report, which I’ve cited a number of times before. Full Story
What’s happening in China is a merger of Big Tech and an already-existing police state, to produce a Big Brother right out of George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four. The result is obviously chilling for anyone trying to change the status quo, along with anyone who has anything the government might want. Access to one’s online “secrets” gives the authorities leverage that not many can resist. Full Story
In the year 301 AD, the Roman unit of barter was the denarius, which had originally been 95% pure silver when introduced by Augustus at the end of the first century BC but by the time of Diocletian's rule, it had moved to 50,000 denarii to a pound of gold. Ten year later, it took 120,000 denarii to buy a pound of gold and by 337, that figure was 20,000,000. What had occurred in a mere 400 years was that a slow and agonizing erosion in the purchasing power of the Roman currency accelerated to full fiat disintegration and that complete and total disregard for the denarius was attributed as one of the underlying causes of the Fall of the Roman Empire. Full Story
As soon as President Trump put his Goldman boys, Gary Cohn and Steven Mnuchin, in charge of his tax plan, I knew Trump’s tax plan would never fulfill his and his henchmen’s promises of helping the middle class and of not giving additional tax breaks to the rich. The Trump Tax plan, as it now exists, proves those conjoined promises to be the greatest lie Trump ever told. Full Story
Apparently, Venezuelan President Madura is following China’s lead but instead of a subtle rollout over time as to not cause some kind of market shake up, he has decided that now is as good a time as any to announce the creation of a new digital currency, the Petro, backed by Venezuela’s gold, oil and diamond reserves. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 2.43 percent on hedge funds, boosting their net bullish position this past week. Gold surged on Friday as the dollar and equities dropped after former national security advisor Michael Flynn prepared to testify that President Donald Trump directed him to contact Russia, reports Bloomberg. In Bloomberg’s weekly poll, almost half of respondents were neutral on gold’s outlook as of Thursday afternoon. Full Story
What storm? The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) reached another all-time high. Interest rates in the U.S. are yielding multi-decade lows, some say multi-century lows. Trillions of dollars in global sovereign debt have negative yield and European junk bonds yield less than 10 year U.S. treasuries. “Official” unemployment is low. Borrowing is inexpensive. Things are good, so they say! Full Story
In layman’s terms, this report is telling us that even in 2008 (a period that everyone admits was a disaster in terms of debt) corporate bonds were less risky than they are today. Yes, corporations have MORE leverage via WORSE debt today, than they did going into the Great Financial Crisis. The Economist report even states this explicitly. Full Story
Gold bottomed in 2002, and it took nine years for its trade to a high of roughly $1900 (September 2011). Contrast that to Bitcoin, in less than 1/3rd of the amount of time it is showing gains of more than 11,000%. It took nine years for Gold to show gains of roughly 700% and Gold has given up a substantial portion of those gains. Full Story
Well, as they go through with this tax deal, it's just going to bring more money to the bigger corporations and you saw what the corporations have done with the profits from the past, what do they do with them? They reinvested them into the stock market rather than building their companies and investing in capital improvements. Full Story
The theme of a recent report from Casey Research was that the Russian government is planning to issue its own cryptocurrency (the “CryptoRuble”) that would be created, tracked and held on a state-controlled digital ledger. This was portrayed as being a huge plus for the Russian economy. I don’t see how giving the government greater ability to monitor financial transactions and thus divert more money into its own coffers could be anything other than a negative for any economy, but the Casey report got me thinking about whether a state-sponsored cryptocurrency is a valid concept. Full Story
Hedge Token (HDG) CCO Giovanni Lesna makes his show debut from his office in South Africa. Goldseek’s Peter Spina rates HDG as his top crypto candidate, an interesting and unique hedging platform that seeks to enable everyone to participate. According to Bill Murphy of GATA.org, in the last four years the gold cartel has dropped tons of precious metals on the market following Thanksgiving. Nevertheless, the overall market mechanics remain bullish amid solid physical bullion sales. Jim Rickards, notes how the a global flight to quality is adding support for the PMs sector. Full Story
We may warn investors about the risks in the markets, but we can’t make them take action to do something about it. We recall back in late 1999/early 2000 receiving calls from people wanting to open up a brokerage account so that they could buy some tech or dot.com stock. We politely told them that to open an account would require we meet with the prospect, learn their investment goals, fill out papers, and await approval from the compliance department. The process could take more than a few days. By that time, the stock they were targeting could be up a further 10%, 20%, or even more. Full Story
I would no sooner invest without using charts than I would drive down a freeway at 90 miles per hour with my head in a blindfold or a brown paper bag. What would you think if the Weatherman came on the TV and instead of showing you a chart, presented you with a table of data? – or you boarded a plane with the windows shuttered and the Captain explaining “Oh – I don’t need to see out – my instruments provide me with all the information I need to fly the plane.”? Charts are about perspective and proportion, and without them you’ve got none. Full Story
Magicians use distraction, deflection and misdirection to conduct their tricks. They get their audiences to look to the left while they perform their magic undetected on the right. So do con artists and swindlers. George H. W. Bush, in a speech delivered to a joint session of Congress on 11 September 1990 entitled “Toward a New World Order,” headlined a geopolitical theme that has garnered a great deal of attention ever since. And while Bush was not the first person to use the term, it struck a global nerve when he invoked it. Full Story
I hate to break it to you, but chances are you're just not prepared for what's coming. Not even close. Don't take it personally. I'm simply playing the odds. After spending more than a decade warning people all over the world about the futility of pursuing infinite exponential economic growth on a finite planet, I can tell you this: very few are even aware of the nature of our predicament. Full Story
The Federal Reserve will soon have a new chair, assuming the Senate confirms Jerome Powell as Janet Yellen’s successor. Yellen’s departure will reduce the nominally seven-member Board of Governors to only three. That may or may not be a good thing, depending on some other events. Full Story
One of the most notable events in Russia’s precious metals market calendar is the annual “Russian Bullion Market” conference. Formerly known as the Russian Bullion Awards, this conference, now in its 10th year, took place this year on Friday 24 November in Moscow. Among the speakers lined up, the most notable inclusion was probably Sergey Shvetsov, First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s central bank, the Bank of Russia. Full Story
The gold market is heading towards a big fundamental change that few are prepared. While many analysts in the alternative media community suggest that the gold price is manipulated due to Fed and Central bank intervention, there is another more obscure rationale that is the likely culprit. I call it, “The Blind Conspiracy.” Full Story
The US economic boom is still in progress, where a boom is defined as a period during which monetary inflation and the suppression of interest rates create the false impression of a growing/healthy economy*. We know that it is still in progress because the gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields — our favourite proxy for the US yield curve — continues to shrink and is now the narrowest it has been in 10 years. Full Story
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